1- Research Group of Environmental Assessment and Risk, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran , bhz.ray@gmail.com
2- Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
3- Research Group of Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran
2- Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
3- Research Group of Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran
Abstract: (74 Views)
Climate change stands out as one of the most pressing environmental challenges of the modern era, exerting profound impacts on aquatic ecosystems—particularly wetlands. This study investigates the influence of climate change on three wetlands in Chaldoran County, West Azerbaijan Province—Pir-Ahmadkandi, Naver, and Zavieh-ye Sofla—spanning the period from 1984 to 2023. To achieve this, climate data were obtained from the TerraClimate database and CMIP6 model outputs under four emission scenarios. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, along with JRC/GSW data, were processed to evaluate changes in wetland surface areas. Annual wetland extents were extracted and compared against climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalent) using time-series analysis, Pearson correlation, and multivariate regression. Additionally, the Delta Method was employed for downscaled climate data to project possible trends over the next 20 years.
The results indicate that rising temperatures and evapotranspiration constitute the primary drivers of wetland shrinkage. Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver have lost over 27% and around 20% of their surface area, respectively, whereas Zavieh-ye Sofla exhibits an irregular, seasonal reduction due to human interventions and agricultural runoff. Projections suggest that wetland surfaces—especially in Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver—will continue to decline, potentially exacerbating drought conditions, diminishing biodiversity, and reducing water quality. These findings underscore the necessity of implementing sustainable water resource policies, controlling evaporation, and incorporating human impact assessments into conservation measures. Moreover, harnessing advanced hydrological modeling techniques and integrating remote sensing data with machine learning approaches may offer more effective strategies for safeguarding these vital wetland ecosystems.
The results indicate that rising temperatures and evapotranspiration constitute the primary drivers of wetland shrinkage. Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver have lost over 27% and around 20% of their surface area, respectively, whereas Zavieh-ye Sofla exhibits an irregular, seasonal reduction due to human interventions and agricultural runoff. Projections suggest that wetland surfaces—especially in Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver—will continue to decline, potentially exacerbating drought conditions, diminishing biodiversity, and reducing water quality. These findings underscore the necessity of implementing sustainable water resource policies, controlling evaporation, and incorporating human impact assessments into conservation measures. Moreover, harnessing advanced hydrological modeling techniques and integrating remote sensing data with machine learning approaches may offer more effective strategies for safeguarding these vital wetland ecosystems.
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