fa مدلسازی و پیش‌بینی خطر تخریب جنگل روی میزان انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن با مدل REDD (مطالعه‌ موردی: شهرستا ن‌های چالوس و نوشهر( تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif""></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">کاهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">انتشارات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ناشی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">از</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">جنگل&shy;زدایی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تخریب</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">جنگل </span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">(</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">REDD</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">)، </span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">راهکاری</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">برای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تعدیل</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">اقلیمی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">است</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">که</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">به&nbsp; منظور</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">کاهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شدت جنگل&shy;زدایی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">انتشار</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">گازهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">گلخانه&shy;ای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">کشورهای</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">حال</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">توسعه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">به کار</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">گرفته</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">می&shy;شود</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">.</span></span></span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">چند</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">دهه</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">اخیر،</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تغییرات</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شدید</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">کاربری</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">اراضی سبب</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">کاهش</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">میزان</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">چشمگیری</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">از</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">جنگلهای</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">هیرکانی</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">واقع</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">در</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">استان</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مازندران</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شده</span></span></span> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">است. </span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">به این منظور هدف این مطالعه، بررسی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پیش&shy;بینی آن برای سال 1430 با استفاده از زنجیره مارکوف و پروژه</span></span></span> <span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">REDD</span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">برای کاهش انتشار گاز دی&shy;اکسیدکربن برای شهرستان&shy;های نوشهر و&shy; چالوس می&shy;باشد. با استفاده از تصاویر سنجنده&shy;های </span></span></span>&nbsp;<span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">TM</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> و</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">ETM⁺</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> ماهواره&shy;ای لندست نقشه کاربری اراضی در سه دوره زمانی مربوط به سال&shy;های 1368، 1379 و 1400 تهیه شده است. برای طبقه&shy;بندی تصاویر از طبقه&shy;بندی نظارت شده، روش حداکثر احتمال استفاده گردید. از ماتریس خطا، ضریب کاپا در این ارزیابی برای <span style="background:lime">سال</span> 1368 برابر با 83/0، سال 1379 برابر با 81/0 و برای سال 1400 برابر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:lime"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">با</span></span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 92/0 بدست آمد. نتایج نشان می&shy;دهد که پوشش جنگل در سال 1430 کاهش پیدا می&shy;کنند. در مقابل مساحت اراضی مرتع، شهر، زمین&shy;بایر، کشاورزی و تالاب روند افزایشی خواهند داشت. براساس اهداف پروژه </span></span></span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">REDD</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، میزان انتشار دی&shy;اکسیدکربن تا سال 1430 محاسبه گردید. در صورت عدم اجرای پروژه </span></span></span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">REDD</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، در منطقه مساحت زیادی از پوشش جنگل تخریب و دی&shy;اکسیدکربن بیشتری انتشار می&shy;یابد. میزان دی&shy;اکسیدکربن در سال 1400 در منطقه اجرای پروژه، 49681 تن می&shy;باشد و تا سال 1430 به میزان </span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"><span style="color:black">806732</span></span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> تن خواهد رسید </span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و با اجرای پروژه </span></span></span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">REDD</span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> در منطقه می&shy;توان این میزان گاز را به معادل 402321 تن رساند، و از&nbsp; انتشار 404411 تن دی&shy;اکسیدکربن به جو فوقانی زمین جلوگیری نمود.</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بررسی تغییرات با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره&shy;ای می&shy;تواند به مدیران و برنامه&shy;ریزان کمک کند، تا تصمیمات آگاهانه&shy;تری بگیرند.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <br> &nbsp; <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Reducing the emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation REDD is a strategy to moderate climate change, which is used to reduce the intensity of deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. In the last few decades, drastic changes in land use have caused a significant decrease in Hyrkan forests located in Mazandaran province.</span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">For this purpose, the aim of this study is to investigate the changes in land use and its prediction for the year 2050 using the Markov chain and the REDD project to reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the cities of Nowshahr and Chalus. Using the images of TM and ETM⁺ sensors of Landsat satellite, a land use map has been prepared in three time periods related to the years 1989, 2000 and 2021.</span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Maximum likelihood method was used to classify images from supervised classification. From the error matrix, the Kappa coefficient in this evaluation was equal to 0.83 for 1989, 0.81 for 2000, and 0.92 for 2021.</span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">The results show that the forest cover decreases in 2050. In contrast, the area of ​​range land, city, barren land, agriculture and wetland will increase. Based on the goals of the REDD project, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2050. If the REDD project is not implemented, a large area of ​​forest cover will be destroyed and a lot of carbon dioxide is released.</span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">The amount of carbon dioxide in the project area in 2021 is 49,681 tons and will reach 806,732 tons by 2051, and with the implementation of the REDD project in the region, this amount of gas can be increased to the equivalent of 402,321 tons. 404411 tons of carbon dioxide was prevented from entering the upper atmosphere of the earth. Examining changes using satellite images can help managers and planners to make more informed decisions.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; زنجیره مارکوف, سنجش از دور, NDVI, ضریب کاپا, گاز دی‌اکسید کربن, پروژه REDD Markov chain, remote sensing, kappa coefficient, carbon dioxide gas, REDD project 19 48 http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1704-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 saleh arekhi صالح ارخی arekhi1348@yahoo.com 100319475328460013119 100319475328460013119 Yes golestan university دانشگاه گلستان Habib Allah Kour حبیب‌الله کر h.kour@yahoo.com 100319475328460013120 100319475328460013120 No golestan university دانشگاه گلستان Somia Emadaddian سمیه عمادالدین s.emadodin@gu.ac.ir 100319475328460013121 100319475328460013121 No stan university دانشگاه گلستان