Objective: In recent years, water scarcity has become a major concern in countries located in arid and semi-arid regions, shaping the relations among these countries. In this context, the present research aims to elucidate the scenarios ahead for hydro-political relations between Iran and Iraq in the Sirwan River basin.

Research Method: This study is an applied research. The research method is descriptive-analytical. The required data were collected through library and field methods and analyzed using Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software.

Findings: The research findings, derived through quantitative analysis using specialized software, identified five key variables positioned in the "autonomous" quadrant of the driving power–dependence matrix: the mountainous topography of the basin (Var4), the extent of arid zones in Iraq (Var8), Iranian dam construction on the Sirwan River (Var18), livelihood dependency on water resources (Var26), and water-related social conflicts within the basin (Var27). Among these, "Iranian dams" (Var18) and "expansion of aridity in Iraq" (Var8) exhibited the highest driving power, establishing them as the primary catalysts of hydro-political change. Scenario analysis conducted via Scenario Wizard software—based on 23 defined states across these key variables—generated five internally consistent future scenarios. The "critical" scenario emerged as the most probable outcome with a 48% likelihood, whereas the "optimal cooperation" scenario registered the lowest probability at 12%. The distribution of probable states across the scenario board was as follows: 35.71% critical, 21.42% crisis threshold, 14.28% static/stable, 14.28% semi-desirable, and 14.28% desirable.

Conclusion: Considering various potential states ranging from critical to favorable for the key variables, the most probable scenario for the hydro-political relations between Iran and Iraq in the Sirwan River basin was found to be critical. The development of participatory and flexible frameworks in the hydro-political relations between the two countries is proposed as the most important solution to prevent the emergence of a critical situation.