Extended Abstract

Cold and frost is one of the most important climatic parameters in the agricultural climate, and the damage caused by them reduces the possibility of producing many agricultural and horticultural products in vulnerable areas. Cold and frost is one of the climatic hazards that annually causes damage to various activities. The agricultural sector is the most important part of the damage that is most seriously damaged by frost. Cold and frosty weather for many crops and gardens results in harmful and destructive consequences, in some years billions of rials damage farmers, farmers and, ultimately, the national interests of the country. Considering that the northwest region of Iran suffers a lot of financial losses each year due to atmospheric hazards especially cold and frost. Identification and zoning of areas with high potential of cold and frost hazard and prediction of their occurrence can provide valuable and valuable information for preventing and mitigating damages. In this study using HadCM3 global model under two scenarios A2 and B1 and The LARS-WG microscope model is dealt with this.

It is important to check the time of occurrence and predict their future changes. For this purpose, general atmospheric circulation (GCM) models are designed that can simulate future climate parameters. In this study, the output data of the HadCM3 general circulation model under two scenarios of A2 and B1 were analyzed by LARS-WG statistical method in 21 synoptic stations located in northwest of Iran. The results of this study were based on the base period (1980-1989) and The 2020 decade (2030-2011) was evaluated for two climate variables: minimum temperature and maximum temperature. Then the history of the first and last frost and cold of autumn and spring was extracted and their date of occurrence was calculated in the future.

The monthly average of the minimum temperature of the stations studied in the course of the 2020s and the base period shows that the temperature has been increased according to both scenarios and increased in all months and at most study stations compared to the base period. The maximum changes in the minimum temperature in the study area are based on the average scenarios in this decade related to Abhar, Ardebil, Khoy and Urumieh stations at 0.8 degrees Celsius; In fact, the minimum temperatures that occurred at these stations during the base period have not been observed in the next period and the heating process has shown that its rate in the region of the study area in the 2020s is between 0.4 and 0.8 It will be in the base period. The results indicate an increase in the monthly average of the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in the upcoming period to about 0.8 degrees Celsius. The results of the first and last glacial survey in the decade of 2020 indicate that the first glacial precipitate of autumn occurs between 2 and 9 days later, with the least change in the history of frost occurring in two stations of Qazvin and Meshkinshahr each with 2 The change day is relative to the base period. The last frost of late spring also will be 3-10 days earlier on the surface of the region. However, the duration of the ice free period will be reduced at all stations, which is the highest decrease for Khoy station with 16 days, then the stations of Urmia and Ardebil each Two with 14 days and the lowest decrease is due to Meshkinshahr station for 6 days. Based on the results of changes in the date of early ice ages, changes are less than the late frost. Based on this, the study of the condition of glaciers and serma in most of the studied stations shows that the first frost and autumn frost in the coming period will start earlier and the cold and the frostbite will end sooner. The least changes were observed in the south-east of the study area, Meshkinshahr and Sarab regions, and the most changes in the glacial period were related to Khoy, Urmia, Tabriz and Ahar areas. According to the results of most studied areas, averaging between 10 and 12 days decrease in length The ice age will experience the base course.

The results indicate an increase in the monthly average of the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in the upcoming period to about 0.8 C. Based on this, the study of the condition of glaciers and serma in most of the studied stations shows that the first frost and autumn frost in the coming period will start earlier and the cold and the frostbite will end sooner. Also, the length of the cold and freezing period is decreasing, which may reflect the consequences of climate change at study stations. The results of this study are based on the studies of Grasick and Dodwilich (2015) in Poland, Medella et al. (2016) in Texas, Hosseini and Ahmadi (1395) in Saqez, Aqa Shariatmadari et al. (1395) in West Iran, Sobhani et al. (1396). ) In Ardebil and Khalili et al. (1396) in Iran.