Evaluation and Evaluation of Resilience to Drought Hazards in Rural Areas Case Study: rural district Ghare Taghgan Neka



Extensive abstract

Concerns over the social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change on human habitat have increased over the last few decades (McGranahan et al, 2007). According to the UN report, water shortages will occur in the near future in 18 countries, and by 2025 more than two-thirds of the world's population is projected to be in serious water shortages (Pozzi et al, 2013, 191 112; World Bank, 2008, 124). On the other hand, the number of disasters has increased over the past 20 years, reaching 400 from 200 accidents (Pittman et al, 2011, 83,94; Molen et al, 2011, 765-773). In this regard, droughts, the most dangerous natural disasters, affect a wide range of climates and ecosystems, and the geographical areas affected by them have increased rapidly in the last four decades (Kamara et al., 2018, 2318). Drought is a major threat to households and community’s dependent on agriculture for livelihoods (Anthopoulou et al, 2017). Because livelihoods in agricultural-dependent societies are more dependent on climate change (Pittman et al., 2017. (

It is central to the city of Neka; it requires a holistic perspective. The type of applied research and methodology used is descriptive-analytical. Librarian and field method (observation, questionnaire) were used to collect the required data. In order to assess the resilience of rural areas to drought in two economic dimensions (ability to return to employment and income generation and compensation of costs and losses) and in social dimension (awareness, knowledge, skills and preparedness and participation and Collaboration) Designed and developed a Likert-type questionnaire (‌1 very low, 5 = very high). The statistical population of this study is based on census of 6947 households in 24 villages with error of 0.07, ‌191 questionnaire as sample size and based on the relationship of sharing ratio of the number of samples in each village is specified and in villages less than 7 samples, the number has been upgraded to 7. Finally, 233 samples were used as the sample size based on questionnaire completion and analysis and were randomly distributed and distributed among households. To assess the validity of the questionnaire, the experts were first provided with validity and the validity of the research instrument was measured and the final indices and statements were extracted. The questionnaire developed at this stage was pre-tested in the study area and after confirmation of trust or reliability (Cronbach's alpha value of 0.84) the questionnaire was finalized for field research. Descriptive (inferential) and inferential statistical methods (single sample t, Friedman, cluster analysis) and VASP, ARAS and VIKOR models were used to analyze the data. Therefore, in order to evaluate and measure resilience in rural areas, firstly, annual moisture status was investigated based on SPI, SDI and GRI indices. Therefore, the moisture status of the study area during the 13-year statistical period (2006-2007) using the data of 9 Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) rain gauge data, the data of the discharge rate of 6 rivers Surface Flow Index (SDI) and the values Water level level of 9 piezometric wells of GRI index was calculated in DrinC software environment.

Iran's position on the dry belt and the persistence of droughts over the past two decades have led to the emergence of drought-related crises, especially for villagers who are heavily dependent on water for production, due to climate change. Droughts in the study area were also not exempt from this rule and resulted in adverse effects beyond the normal state and the risk of drought among rural farmers, which could be due to their low level of resilience to this risk. Be it. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the economic and social effects of this phenomenon on the status of rural resilience against drought hazards. The results showed that among the sample villages, in the economic dimension, the highest average belonged to Tavaza Abad village of Bostan Khel with average of 3.11 and the lowest average belonged to Plazhartesh village with average of 1.63. In the social aspect, the highest average belongs to the village of Dukhaelo with a mean of 3.54 and the lowest average belongs to the village of Plazhartesh with an average of 1.55. Also, the average real perception of the respondents is less than three and is moderately low, indicating that rural resilience to drought is low.



Keywords: Rural Areas, Resilience, Drought, Gharaghgan Village