Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Spatiotemporal variation of precipitation using PCI and SI indices in Golestan province

Authors
Hamideh Roshani 1
Raoof Mostafazadeh 1
Abazar Esmali-Ouri 1
Mohsen Zabihi 2
1 University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
2 Tarbiat Modares University
10.29252/jsaeh.7.4.28.187
Abstract
Introduction and objective:

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall is one of the determining factors for water resources management, agricultural production, drought risk, flood control and understanding the effect of climate change. The impact of spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation on flood/drought hazard and available water resources is an undeniable issue in water resources management. Precipitation concentration (PCI) and Seasonality (SI) indices are the important indicators to determine the distribution of precipitation in a region which can lead to identify and manage before occurring natural hazards including flood and drought and hydro-meteorological storms. Several methods available to study the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. Indicators of rainfall concentration and seasonality are among the methods of studying rainfall dispersion that depend on the distribution of rainfall patterns at different time scales. Accordingly, the study and understanding of temporal and spatial changes in rainfall can lead to sound management policies in the field of water and soil resources by planners and decision makers.



Methodology:

The precipitation concentration index is presented as a powerful indicator for determining the temporal distribution of precipitation to show the distribution of precipitation and rain erosion. The increase in the value of this indicator indicates a low dispersion and a higher concentration of rainfall, which is closely related to the intensity of rainfall. Seasonality index as one of the key factors in detecting seasonal variation in the variables of natural ecosystems, measures the time distribution of hydrological components at different times of the year and uses each hydrological variable to classify different hydrologic variable regimes. In this regard, the present research aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution and trend analysis of PCI and SI for 41 rain gauge stations of Golestan province (38-year study period) in annual, seasonal and dry and wet time scales. The Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trend of time changes in PCI and SI indices during the study period in all selected rain gauge stations in Golestan province. Mann-Kendall test is one of the non-parametric tests to determine the trend in hydroclimate time series. The advantages of this method include its suitability for use in time series without a specific statistical distribution, as well as the effectiveness of this method in data with extreme values in time series. In order to determine the spatial pattern of PCI and SI indices in different time scales (annual, seasonal, and dry and wet periods), the method of inverse distance weighting was employed in GIS environment. In this method, a weight has been assigned to each point that decreases with increasing distance from the known value point. On the other hand, the effectiveness of the known point in estimating the unknown point and calculating the mean also decreases. In this regard, the best results are obtained when the behavior of the mathematical function is similar to the behavior of the observed phenomenon. The study area in terms of extent, topographic diversity, type of land use has a high heterogeneity that affects the characteristics and temporal and spatial occurrence of dry and wet periods. The average annual rainfall varies from about 150 to 750 mm over the study area.



Results:

According to the results, the average of PCI for annual, spring, summer, autumn, winter, dry and wet periods in the research area were obtained 13.15, 11.96, 13.15, 10.72, 9.96, 14.72, and 1072, respectively. Also, Chat station with 0.79 (seasonal distribution with dry and wet seasons) and Shastkalateh station with 0.47 (mainly seasonal distribution with short dry season) had the maximum and minimum of SI in the Golestan province, respectively. In addition, 27 and 14 of studied stations had the increasing (Significant and no-significant) and decreasing (Significant and no-significant) trend for PCI and SI.



Conclusions:

Non-compliance of precipitation in Golestan province with a single temporal and spatial pattern is another achievement of the present study. The results of the current research can be used as a roadmap for water resources planning and policy making in the study area. It is noteworthy that the PCI and SI indices do not emphasize the cumulative values of precipitation and address the pattern of rainfall distribution, which can be a better criterion for assessing changes in precipitation patterns at different time scales. In this regard, determining the priority of areas for protection and management of water and soil resources, and spatial pattern of agricultural crops. The trend of changes in PCI and SI indicators and its relationship with important climatic components can be considered in assessing the changes in pattern of precipitation and climatic variables.





Keywords
Seasonality index
Precipitation distribution
Spatial distribution
Temporal scales
Water resources management
اسلامی، حسین. 1397. بررسی تغییرات مکانی شاخص تمرکز بارندگی و فرسایندگی باران در استان خوزستان. پ‍‍ژوهشنامه مدیریت حوزه آبخیز، 9(۱۷): 118-109.
بابایی‌فینی، ام‌السلمه و منوچهر فرج‌زاده. 1381. الگوهای تغییرات مکانی و زمانی بارش در ایران. مدرس علوم انسانی، 6 (4): 70-51.
جهانبخش اصل، سعید؛ وحیده ابطحی، محمدعلی قربانی، معصومه تدینی و اکرم والایی. 1394. بررسی توزیع زمانی و مکانی بارش شهرستان تبریز با روش تحلیل خوشه‌ای. فضای جغرافیایی، 15(۵۰): 81-59.
خلیلی، کیوان؛ محمد ناظری‌تهرودی و فرشاد احمدی. 1394. کاربرد شاخص PCI در بررسی الگوی بارش ایران و تحلیل روند تغییرات آن در مقیاس سالانه و فصلی طی نیم قرن اخیر. آبیاری و زهکشی ایران، 9(1): 208-195.
دادده، فاطمه؛ رئوف مصطفی‌زاده، اباذر اسمعلی‌عوری و اردوان قربانی. 1399. تعیین فصلی بودن بارندگی ماهیانه با استفاده از روش Markham در ایستگاه‌های باران‌سنجی استان اردبیل. برنامه‌ریزی فضایی (جغرافیا)، 10(1): 42-29.
ذبیحی، محسن؛ سید حمیدرضا صادقی و مهدی وفاخواه. 1394. تحلیل الگوهای مکانی عامل فرسایندگی باران در مقیاس‌های زمانی متفاوت در ایران. مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز، 7(4): 457-442.
سازمان تحقیقات منابع آب. 1369. گزارش منابع آب اطلس ایران. مرکز تحقیقات منابع آب.
شاه‌حسینی، تارا؛ حبیب نظرنژاد و فرخ اسدزاده. 1396. بررسی شاخص تمرکز بارش در ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی استان آذربایجان غربی. چهارمین کنفرانس بین‌المللی برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت محیط‌زیست.
صادقی، سید حمیدرضا و محسن ذبیحی. 1397. تحلیل هم‌روندی تغییرات شاخص‌های‌ فرسایندگی فورنیه اصلاح شده و بارش استاندارد شده در استان خراسان ‌شمالی. مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز، 10(4): 515-506.
قبله، مریم؛ علی‌ اصغر، جعفرزاده و مجید پیشنماز احمدی. ۱۳۹۴. تغییرات زمانی و مکانی بارش در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه. کنفرانس بین‌المللی توسعه با محوریت کشاورزی، محیط‌زیست و گردشگری.
قهرودی‌تالی، منیژه. 1384. سیستم‌های اطلاعات جغرافیایی در محیط سه‌بعدی. چاپ اول. جهاد دانشگاهی واحد تربیت معلم‌.
مسعودیان، سید ابوالفضل. 1390. آب و هوای ایران. شریعه توس.
مصطفی‌زاده، رئوف و سونیا مهری. 1397. تعیین وضعیت و تغییرات شاخص فصلی بارش در بخش مرکزی استان اردبیل. پژوهش‌های آبخیزداری، 31(120): 39-28.
مصطفی‌زاده، رئوف؛ محسن ذبیحی و مریم ادهمی. 1396. تحلیل زمانی و مکانی تغییرات بارش ماهانه در استان گلستان به‌کمک بُعد ‌فرکتالی. مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز، 9(1): 45-34.
مصطفی‌زاده، رئوف؛ محسن ذبیحی، خدیجه حاجی و محمد حسین قویمی‌پناه. 1397. الگوهای تغییرپذیری زمانی و مکانی خطر عامل فرسایندگی باران در شمال شرق ایران. نیوار، 103: 18-9.
Adegun, O.; I. Balogun, and O. Adeaga. 2012. Precipitation concentration changes in Owerri and Enugu. Special Publication of the Nigerian Association of Hydrological Sciences, 383-391.
Alijani, B.; J. O’Brien, and B. Yarnal. 2008. Spatial analysis of precipitation intensity and concentration in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 94: 107-124.
Apaydin, H.; G. Erpul, I. Bayramin, and D. Gabriels. 2006. Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: A case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 328: 726-732.
Benhamrouche, A.; D. Boucherf, R. Hamadache, L. Bendahmane, J. Martin-Vide, and J. Teixeira Nery. 2015. Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria. Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences, 15: 617-625.
Coscarelli, R.; and T. Caloiero. 2012. Analysis of daily and monthly rainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region). Journal of Hydrology, 416: 145-156.
De Luis, M.; J.C. González-Hidalgo, M. Brunetti, and L.A. Longares. 2011. Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946-2005. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(5): 1259-1265.
Dong, D.H.; 2006. Mitigation to the floods/droughts from the viewpoints of extreme precipitation in the Pearl River. Pearl River, 5: 33-34.
Ezenwaji, E.E.; C.P. Nzoiwu, and G.N. Chima. 2017. Analysis of precipitation concentration index (PCI) for Awka Urban Area, Nigeria. Hydrology: Current Research, 8(4): 287.
Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J.C.; M. De Luis, J. Ravento, and J.R. Sanchez. 2001. Spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall trends in a western Mediterranean area. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 843-860.
Guhathakurta, P.; and E. Saji. 2013. Detecting changes in rainfall pattern and seasonality index vis-à-vis increasing water scarcity in Maharashtra. Journal of Earth System Science, 122(3): 639-649.
Huang, J.; S. Sun, and J. Zhang. 2013. Detection of trends in precipitation during 1960-2008 in Jiangxi province, southeast China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114: 237-251.
Kohnová, S.; K. Hlavcová, J. Szolgay, and A. Stevkova. 2009. Seasonality analysis of the occurrence of low flows in Slovakia. International Symposium on Water Management and Hydraulic Engineerin.
Li, X.; F. Jiang, L, Li, and G. Wang. 2010. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China. International Journal of Climatology, 31(11): 1679-1693.
Mann, H.B.; 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13: 245-259.
Martin-Vide, J.; 2004. Spatial distribution of a daily precipitation concentration index in Peninsular Spain. International Journal of Climatology, 24: 959-971.
Michiels, P.; D. Gabriels, and R. Hartmann. 1992. Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain. Catena, 19(1): 43-58.
Oliver, J.E.; 1980, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. The Professional Geographer, 32(3): 300-309.
Panda, D.K.; A. Kumar, S. Ghosh, and R.K. Mohanty. 2013. Streamflow trends in the Mahanadi river basin (India), Linkages to tropical climate variability. Journal of Hydrology, 495: 135-149.
Parajka, J.; S. Kohnová, R. Merz, J. Szolgay, K. Hlavčová, and G. Blöschl. 2009. Comparative analysis of the seasonality of hydrological characteristics in Slovakia and Austria. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(3): 456-473.
Partal, T.; and E. Kahya. 2006. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20: 2011-2026.
Scholz, G.; J.N. Quinton, and P. Strauss. 2008. Soil erosion from sugar beet in Central Europe in response to climate change induced seasonal precipitation variations. Catena, 72: 91-105.
Serrano-Notivoli, R.; J. Martín-Vide, M.A. Saz, L.A. Longares, S. Beguería, P. Sarricolea, and M. De Luis. 2017. Spatio-temporal variability of daily precipitation concentration in Spain based on a high-resolution gridded data set. International Journal of Climatology, 38(S1): 518-530.
Singh, R.B.; 2014. Trends and variability of monsoon and other rainfall seasons in western Himalaya, India. Atmospheric Sciences Letters, 15: 218-226.
Trenberth, K.E. 1998. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates and climate change. Climatic Change, 39(4): 667-694.
Vali, M.; K. Shanti Sree, and V.M.K. Iyyanki. 2013. Analysis of precipitation concentration index and rainfall prediction in various agro-climatic zones of Andhra Pradesh, India. International Research Journal of Environment Research, 2(5): 53-61.
Walsh, R.P.D.; and D.M. Lawler. 1981. Rainfall seasonality: Description, spatial patterns and change through time. Weather, 36(7): 201-208.
Zamani, R.; R. Mirabbasi, M. Nazeri, , S.G. Meshram, and F. Ahmadi. 2018. Spatio-temporal analysis of daily, seasonal and annual precipitation concentration in Jharkhand state, India. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 32(4): 1085-1097.
Zhang, K.; Y. Yao, X. Qian, and J. Wang, 2019. Various characteristics of precipitation concentration index and its cause analysis in China between 1960 and 2016. International Journal of Climatology, 39(12): 4648-4658.
Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards
Volume 7, Issue 4 - Serial Number 28
Winter 2021
Pages 187-204