Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Evaluation of CMIP5 models in seasonal anomalies of Iranian sea level pressure based on CORDEX dynamic microscale method under Radiative forcing induction scenarios of RCPs

Authors
Mahmoud Ahmadi
Jamal karami
Abstract
One of the most important issues that has always affected the Iranian climate and has left many socio-economic consequences and financial losses climate change is. On the other hand Sea level pressure is one of the most important climatic elements that can affect other climatic elements such as temperature, humidity and wind. The study aimed to evaluate CMIP5 models based on CORDEX and Verdai dynamics Seasonal pressure anomalies in Iran among CMIP5 models based on CORDEX project dynamic models BCC-CSM, HadGEM2-ES, GFDL and MIROC model HADGEM2-ES had a higher level of correlation and efficiency than other models.

The data of 36 synoptic milestones during the statistical period (1960-2005), the data of the HadGEM2-ES model were applied by using the CORDEX model and the RCPs scenarios for the two historical periods (1960-2005) and predicted during Three periods of near future (2040-2011), middle future (2070-2041) and distant future (2099-2071) were used. Six methods R2, MAE, MBE RMSE, t-Jacovides and t-Jacovides / R2 ratio were used to evaluate the model performance. The results showed that the model has good performance in low altitude areas. Seasonal anomalies in all seasons, scenarios and time periods studied are positive and winter shows the maximum pressure anomalies between seasons.

The maximum seasonal pressure anomaly of Iran in all seasons, scenarios and periods studied corresponds to the altitudes, including its epicenter in the Alborz and Zagros heights and high geographical offerings and the minimum pressure anomaly corresponding to low and low areas such as Khuzestan plain and The southern coast of the country.
Keywords
Pressure anomalies
CMIP5 models
CORDEX microdirection model
RCPs scenarios
Iran
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Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards
Volume 9, Issue 4 - Serial Number 36
Winter 2023
Pages 125-142