Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Analysis of Synoptic Patterns and Modeling of Dust Transport and Dispersion Pathways in Kerman Province

Authors
Saeedeh zaboli
Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust
Mahmood Khosravi
10.66224/jsaeh.12.4.5
Abstract
Dust storms rank among the most significant natural hazards in the world’s arid and semi-arid regions, inflicting irreparable damage across multiple sectors each year. Given the rising frequency of dust storms in Kerman Province and other desert and arid areas of Iran, it is imperative to undertake a study aimed at identifying the synoptic patterns that precipitate dust events and at determining their source regions as well as their transport and dispersion pathways. In this research, the conditions and origins of dust storm formation over the 2000–2023 period were examined using synoptic and remote-sensing methods. The HYSPLIT model was applied to track airflow trajectories, and factor analysis together with cluster analysis were used to identify the synoptic patterns responsible for dust generation. Finally, the principal source regions of dust were delineated.

The results revealed that 63% of the province’s dust storms originate from domestic sources, whereas 37% originate from other areas. Three main atmospheric patterns were identified as drivers of dust activity in Kerman Province:

1. The co-advection of simultaneous low-pressure and high-pressure systems;

2. A lower-tropospheric cutoff low pressure in conjunction with the Siberian high;

3. A pressure-gradient regime featuring a core of elevated wind speeds.

Modeling of transport and dispersion pathways indicated that 60% of externally sourced dust is advected from the Arabian Peninsula, while 55% of dust emitted disperses southward, impacting the Makran coast and the Sea of Oman. Analysis of source regions further showed that the desert areas of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, as well as those of North Africa, together with internal sources such as the dried Jazmourian wetland, the Lut Desert, the Hamun region, and the Tabas Desert, contribute most substantially to the dust events observed in Kerman Province.
Keywords
cluster analysis
Factor analysis
Kerman
Dust
Synoptic Analysis
1. Ebrahimi-Khusfi Z, Ranjbar A. Analysis of the spatial and temporal changes of the dust aerosols optical depth across different regions of Kerman province in the last 23 years. 2024. E.E.R; 14 (3) :102-122 [In Persian]. URL: http://magazine.hormozgan.ac.ir/article-1-839-en.html
2. Ahadi, P., Khaledi, S., & Ahmadi, M. (2021). Statistical monitoring of dust phenomenon in Khuzestan province with hourly approach. Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 21(60), 259-277. [In Persian].http://dx.doi.org/10.52547/jgs.21.60.259. URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3494-fa.html

3. Hosseini, S. A., Rahnama, M., Bagheri, H., Panahi, A., Charekhah, B., Ghamari, K., Khodam, N., Nouri, F., & Sehat, S. (2025). Synoptic satellite analysis of dust in Kurdistan province. Geography and Environmental Hazards, 15, 15-30 [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2025.85624.1434.
4. Hamzeh-Hossein, N, Fattahi, E, Zoljoodi, M, Ghafarian, P, & Ranjbar, A. (2016). Synoptic-dynamic analysis of dust storm and its simulation in southwest of Iran in summer 2005. Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, 3(1), 91-102. [In Persian]. doi‎ 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.3.1.91. URL: http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2546-en.html
5. Damizadeh, M. , Mahdavi, R. , Noroozi, A. A. , Gholami, H. and Hollisaz, A. (2021). Assessment of dust storm emission in Hormozgan Province using HYSPLIT. Watershed Engineering and Management, 13(2), 431-444. [In Persian]
doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2020.342768.17894.
https://doi.org/10.22092/ijwmse.2020.342768.1789
6. Zoualfaghari, H., & Abedzadeh, H. (2006).A Synoptic analysis of dust systems at the west part of Iran. Geography and Development, 3(6), 173-188. [In Persian]
7. Rostami, D & Hosseini, S, A. (2018). Analysis and Tracking Dust Phenomenon in South and Southeast of Iran by using HYSPLIT Model and the Principles of Remote Sensing. JOURNAL OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARTS, 5(3 ), 103-119. 1. [In Persian] SID. https://sid.ir/paper/379108/en
8. Zamani, S. , Mahmoodabadi, M. , Yazdanpanah, N. and Farpoor, M. H. (2019). Analysis of wind erosivity at synoptic stations of Kerman province using wind rose, storm rose and sand rose. Journal of Soil Management and Sustainable Production, 9(2), 23-43. [In Persian].doi: 10.22069/ejsms.2019.14813.1810
9. Shahsavani A, Yarahmadi M, Jafarzade Haghighifard N, Naimabadie A, Mahmoudian M, Saki H, et al . 2011. Dust Storms: Environmental and Health impacts. North Khorasan University of Medical Sciences; 2 (4) :45-56. [In Persian] URL: http://journal.nkums.ac.ir/article-1-458-en.html doi 10.29252/jnkums.2.4.45
10. Shahrisvand, M., Akhoondzadeh Hanzaei, M., & Hosseinsouri, A. H. (2015). Comparison of Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network and Decision Tree Classifiers for Dust Detection in Modis Imagery. Scientific and Research Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology, 4(3), 131-144. [In Persian].URL: http://jgst.issgeac.ir/article-1-284-en.html
10. Sehatkashani, S. , VazifeDoust, M. , Kamali, G. and Bidokhti, A. A. (2015). Synoptic Analysis and Pressure Patterns of Dust events in the West and South West of Iran. Journal of Climate Research, 1394(21), 9-20. [In Persian].
11. Alijani, B. (2004). Climate of Iran. Tehran. Publication of Payamnour University. [In Persian].
12. Lashkari, H., & Keykhosravi, Gh. (2008). Statistical synoptic analysis of dust storms in Khorasan province(1993-2005). Physical geography research quarterly 65, 17-33. [In Persian]
13. Malekoty, H., Baba Husseini, S., Noahgar, A., Azadi, M., & MR, M. (2012). Numerical and Synoptic Study of Emission. Transport and Identify Potential Sources of a Severe Dust Storm Over Middle East, Environmental Erosion Research, 3(4), 69-80. [In Persian].
14. Madanchi, P. , Saeediyan, H. and Damizadeh, M. (2024). Evaluation of Meteorological Data and Satellite Images in Identifying Dust Phenomenon in Desert Areas (Case Study: Kerman Province). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 13(4), 291-313. [In Persian]. doi: 10.22067/geoeh.2024.87528.1476
15. Nadafi, K., Ahramposh, M. H., Jafari, N., Nabizadeh, R., & Younesian, M. (2008). Complete Evaluation of Suspended Air Particles and Their Composition in the Central Area of Yazd City. Journal of Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. 16(1), 21-25. [In Persian].
16. Vali, A. A. , Khamooshi, S. , Mousavi, S. H. , Panahi, F. and Tamassoki, E. (2014). Climatic Analysis and Routing of Comprehensive Dust Storms in the South and Center of Iran. Journal of Environmental Studies, 40(4), 961-972. [In Persian]. doi: 10.22059/jes.2014.53012
17. Yarmoradi, Z. (2019). Monitoring and modeling of dust storm events in eastern Iran [Doctoral dissertation, Lorestan University]. [In Persian]
18. Asghari, M., Meshkatee, A., Ranjbar Saadat Abadi, A., & Moradi, M. (2021). Investigation of atmospheric pattern and simulation of the frontal sandstorm emission over eastern and southeastern Iran (case study 23 & 24 April 2019). Pollution, 7(1), 73-85.
19. Bodenheimer, S., Lensky, I. M., & Dayan, U. (2019). Characterization of Eastern Mediterranean dust storms by area of origin: North Africa vs. Arabian Peninsula. Journal Name, 198, 158-165.
20. Feng, I., Tong, D., Gill, T. E., Van Pelt, R. S., & Webb, N. (2022). The economic costs of wind erosion in the United States. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (NH44B-05).
21. Goudie, A. S., & Middleton, N. J. (2006). Desert dust in the global system. Springer Science & Business Media.
22. Goudie, A. S. (2014). Desert dust and human health disorders. Environment International, 63(3), 101-113.
23. Jin, Q., Jiangfeng, W., Bing, P., Zong-Liang, Y., & Prasad Parajuli, S. (2018). High summertime aerosol loadings over the Arabian Sea and their transport pathways. Journal of Geophysical Research, 123, 10,568-10,590.
24. Karnieli, A., Gill, T. E., & Ben-Dor, E. (2009). Dust storms of the Middle East—An overview. Journal of Arid Environments, 73(11), 1083-1088.
25. Knippertz, P., & Stuut, J. B. W. (2014). Mineral dust: A key player in the Earth system. Springer Science & Business Media.
26. Middleton, N. J., & Goudie, A. S. (2001). Dust storms in the Middle East. Journal of Arid Environments, 48(3), 391-401.
27. Middleton, N. J. (2017). Desert dust hazards: A global review. Aeolian research, 24, 53-63.
28. Prospero, J. M., Ginoux, P., Torres, O., Nicholson, S. E., & Gill, T. E. (2002). Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing aerosol product. Reviews of Geophysics, 40(1), 1002.
29. Rashki, A., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Francois, P., Kosmopoulos, P. G., & Legrand, M. (2015). Dust-storm dynamics over Sistan region, Iran: Seasonality, transport characteristics and affected areas. Aeolian Research, 16, 35-48.
30. Rashki, A., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Rango, A., & Okin, G. S. (2013). Dust storms and related aerosol characteristics over Sistan region using satellite data. Atmospheric Environment, 79, 305-316.
31. UNDRR. (2021). Disaster. Retrieved September 24, 2021, from https://www.undrr.org/terminology/disaster
32. Wang, Y., Stein, A. F., Draxler, R. R., de la Rosa, J. D., & Zhang, X. (2011). Global sand and dust storms in 2008: Observation and HYSPLIT model verification. Atmospheric Environment, 45, 6368-6381. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.08.035.