Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
Literature & Humanities
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir
1
admin
2423-7892
2588-5146
10.61186/jsaeh
fa
jalali
1397
12
1
gregorian
2019
3
1
5
4
online
1
fulltext
fa
ارزیابی ریسک زیست محیطی تالاب بین المللی رودهای شور، شیرین و میناب
Assessment and Management of environmental risk of Salty, Sweet and Minab Rivers International Wetlands on the basis of multi-criteria decision-making methods
تخصصي
Special
پژوهشي
Research
<p dir="RTL"><span dir="RTL">اکوسیستم­های تالابی، به­ویژه تالاب­های ساحلی دریایی</span> <span dir="RTL">از</span> <span dir="RTL">مهم­ترین</span> <span dir="RTL">و</span> <span dir="RTL">در</span> <span dir="RTL">عین</span> <span dir="RTL">حال</span> <span dir="RTL">آسیب­پذیرترین</span> <span dir="RTL">منابع ­محیط­زیستی جهان</span> <span dir="RTL">محسوب</span> <span dir="RTL">می­شوند که</span> <span dir="RTL">همواره به جهت حساسیت و شکنندگی بالای نوار ساحلی، تراکم بالای جمعیت و انجام فعالیت­های شدید انسانی</span> <span dir="RTL">با</span> <span dir="RTL">خطر</span> <span dir="RTL">تخریب</span> <span dir="RTL">و نابودی</span> <span dir="RTL">مواجه</span> <span dir="RTL">بوده­اند. مطالعه</span> <span dir="RTL">حاضر بر اساس روش­های تصمیم­گیری چندمعیاره</span> <span dir="RTL">با</span> <span dir="RTL">هدف</span> <span dir="RTL">شناسایی</span> <span dir="RTL">و</span> <span dir="RTL">تجزیه</span> <span dir="RTL">و</span> <span dir="RTL">تحلیل</span> <span dir="RTL">ریسک­های</span> <span dir="RTL">تهدیدکننده تالاب</span> <span dir="RTL">بین­المللی رودهای شور، شیرین و میناب در شمال خور هرمز واقع در استان هرمزگان</span> <span dir="RTL">صورت پذیرفت. </span>بر این اساس جهت شناسایی ریسک­های شاخص از روش شناسی دلفی، و به منظور اولویت­بندی و تعیین عدد اولویت ریسک از روش­های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره استفاده گردید. در نهایت با توجه به مخاطره­پذیری ریسک­ها، اولویت­های مدیریتی تعیین شد.<span dir="RTL"> براساس نتایج، 32 عامل ریسک در دو گروه طبیعی و محیط­زیستی بر اساس سه شاخص شدت اثر، احتمال وقوع و حساسیت محیط ­پذیرنده طبقه­بندی شدند. نتایج حاکی از آن است که به ترتیب برحسب میزان نزدیکی (</span>Cj<sup>+</sup><span dir="RTL">) چهار عامل آلودگی نفتی (91/0)،</span> احداث سد در بالادست (81/0)، پدیده خشکسالی و تغییرات اقلیم (80/0) و قاچاق سوخت (75/0) در رده غیرقابل­تحمل برای تالاب قرار دارند. بنابراین بدون تردید شناخت درست و دقیق از عوامل تهدید­کننده تالاب­ها بر اساس اهمیت و میزان تأثیرگذاری آن­ها می­تواند زمینه را برای جلوگیری و مقابله اصولی­تر با این عوامل و نیز تهیه و اجرای دقیق طرح­های حفاظت از تالاب­ها و مدیریت محیط­زیستی آن­ها فراهم آورد<span dir="RTL">.</span></p>
<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Wetland ecosystems, especially marine coastal wetlands of the most important and also the most vulnerable are the world's environmental resources. Which has always been sensitive to the fragility of coastal areas, high population density and intensive human activities are faced with the threat of destruction. Based on this, monitoring the trend of the changes in wetlands and their surrounding lands can be effective in the management of these valuable ecosystems. Investigating the environmental risk is a suitable instrument for evaluating and ensuring understanding of the relationships between stressor factors and environmental effects especially in wetland ecosystems. In general, application of methods of evaluating environmental risk is one of the important tools in studying environmental management along with identifying and mitigating potential environmental damaging factors in wetland regions in order to achieve sustainable development. Today, multi-criteria decision-making methods are employed in evaluating the risk in many studies.This study is based on multi-criteria decision-making methods to identify and analyze the risks threatening Tyab- Minab International wetland located in Hormozgan province was conducted.<br>
<strong>Materials and methods: </strong>Based on the methodology to identify and prioritize risks Delphi, AHP and TOPSIS techniques were used to determine the risk priority number. In the first phase of this study, to identify and screen the main criteria of project selection, Delphi method was used. In this study, the panel of interest was determined based on a combination of experts with different expertise and out of a sample of 20 individuals, in which experts with various expertise gave a score from 1 to 5 (Likert scale) to each criterion. In this way, 32 criteria were identified as the most important and considerable risk for Minab Wetland and further proceeded to the second phase for prioritization and analysis. In this stage, multi-criteria decision-making methods were used, in which hierarchical analysis process was employed for prioritizing the criteria using Expert Choice 11 software. The indices of risk evaluation including the impact intensity, incidence probability, and the sensitivity of the receptive environment in environmental risk evaluation of wetlands do not have an equal value and significance. For this purpose, to weight the factors effective in estimating risk level and for prioritization of risk options, the technique for order of preference by similarly to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Excel software were benefited from for calculations. The spectrum of scoring to each of the indices of incidence probability, impact intensity, and the sensitivity of the receiving environment was chosen from very low (1) to very high (9) based on hour spectrum. Following investigation of the types and frequency of indices along with the method of score determination of these indices, three indices of risk intensity (C1), risk incidence probability (C2), and the sensitivity of the receiving environment (C3) were chosen for risk ranking using TOPSIS model. Next, after determination of risk priority number using TOPSIS, the risk levels were calculated and evaluated using normal distribution method for each risk. To determine the degree of risk-taking, risks are organized in a descending order, where the elements of the number of the class and the length of the class are determined based on Relations 1 and 2 (n is the number of risks). Next, the risks are categorized based on these classes. Considering the concept of ALARP, the risks under investigation are divided into high risks, medium risks, and low risks. In this study, considering the number and length of classes, the studied risks were categorized in six levels (critical, intolerable, considerable, medium, tolerable, and trivial risks).<br>
</p>
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<div><span dir="LTR">(2)</span></div>
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<div><span dir="LTR">(1)</span></div>
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<p><span dir="LTR">the number of classes=</span><span dir="LTR">1+3.3 log (n) </span><span dir="LTR"></span><br>
<span dir="LTR">the length of the classes= the greatest risk value - the smallest risk value/the number of classes</span><br>
<strong>Results and discussion: </strong>In the first step, the final indices of the wetland's environmental risk were identified and the development of hierarchical tree and classification of the risks threatening wetlands along with their incidence probability in two groups of natural and environmental criteria was performed. Eventually, the final weight of criteria resulting from paired comparisons was obtained in Expert Choice 11 to achieve the score of incidence probability of each risk. Based on the results, among the natural, social, economic, physiochemical, biological, and cultural criteria<strong>, </strong>drought and climate change, increase urban and rural development, Smugling of fuel, oil pollution, reduce the density of vegetation, indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater were of high priority<strong>. </strong>The results obtained from ranking the the risks threatening Minab Wetland using TOPSIS suggest that oil pollution, dam construction upstream, persistent drought and climate change, and sometimes alcohol and fuel smuggling and illegal overfishing the priorities are first to fifth. Also Results showed that the respectively based on (Cj+) oil pollution (0/9109), dam construction (0/8121), the drought and climate changes (0/8063) and the smuggling of fuel (0/7520) are in Unbearable level.<br>
Overall, the results indicated that same as this research, wetland ecosystems are subject to many threatening factors, resulting in ecological imbalance and abnormal appearance of the wetland, putting the wetland entity into danger of extinction in terms of fauna and flora.<br>
<strong>Conclusion: </strong>Nowadays, for assessment of environmental risk, various methods are used, each of which has positive and negative points given the studied environment and the conditions governing it. Therefore, one cannot reject or approve one method with total confidence. By employing novel methods in risk evaluation, the intensity of risk incidences and, in turn, the damages and losses incurred to the environment can be prevented or at least mitigated. Further, it is also possible to move in line with proper and optimal management of environmental resources, especially wetlands and with sustainable development. Undoubtedly, understanding and recognition of the factors threatening wetlands, according to the importance and the impact of them, Prevent and cope with the threats and accurate project preparation and implementation of wetland conservation plans and environmental management.</p>
ارزیابی ریسک, تالاب بین المللی رودهای شور, شیرین و میناب, محیطزیست, روشهای تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره
Risk Assessment, Wetlands International, Environment, AHP, TOPSIS
65
88
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-417-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
Samira
Jafariazar
سمیرا
جعفری آذر
samirajafari1392@gmail.com
10031947532846005090
10031947532846005090
No
Master Degree Assessment and Land use of Bebahan khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran.
دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد ارزیابی و آمایش سرزمین دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران
Gholam Reza
Sabzghabaei
غلامرضا
سبزقبائی
sabzghabaei@bkatu.ac.ir
10031947532846005091
10031947532846005091
Yes
Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
استادیار گروه محیط زیست دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران
Mortaza
Tavakoly
مرتضی
توکلی
tavakoly52@gmail.com
10031947532846005092
10031947532846005092
No
Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
Soolmaz
Dashti
سولماز
دشتی
solmazdashti@gmail.com
10031947532846005093
10031947532846005093
No
Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran
استادیار گروه محیط زیست، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران