Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
Literature & Humanities
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تحلیل سینوپتیکی سیل دی ماه1398زاهدان-قشم
Synoptic analysis of the torrential on Day 21, 1398 (Case study: Zahedan and Qeshm)
تخصصي
Special
پژوهشي
Research
در روز 21دی ماه 1398(11 ژانویه2020) به دلیل وقوع بارندگی شدید و جاری شدن سیل خسارت های بسیاری به استان های سیستان و بلوچستان و هرمزگان وارد شد. پژوهش حاضر به منظور مطالعه سازوکارهای همدیدی وقوع این بارش انجام شد. ابتدا داده های بارش روزانه ایستگاه های مطالعاتی از سازمان هواشناسی کل کشور دریافت و در ادامه، داده های سطوح جو شامل: میانگین فشار سطح دریا(<span dir="LTR">SLP</span>)، ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل سطوح 850 و 500 هکتوپاسکال، سرعت قائم جو و جریان باد سطوح 1000، 850 و 500 هکتوپاسکال، رطوبت ویژه سطوح 1000 و 700 هکتوپاسکال و جریان رودباد سطح 250 هکتوپاسکال برای روزهای مطالعاتی از مرکز ملی پیش بینی محیطی آمریکا/مرکز ملی پژوهش های جوی (<span dir="LTR">NCEP/NCAR</span>) تهیه و نقشهها در نرم افزار گردس رسم و تفسیر شد. نتایج نشان داد: در روز رخداد سیل، مرکز بسته کم ارتفاع با هسته مرکزی برابر با 1010 هکتوپاسکال در راستای شمال شرق – جنوب غرب سراسر پهنه مطالعاتی را دربر گرفته است. در ادامه پرارتفاع با هسته مرکزی برابر با 1030 هکتوپاسکال شمال غرب ایران، شمال غرب اروپا و برروی تبت قرار گرفته است و با توجه به قرارگیری پربندهای پرفشار در اطراف کشور ایران و قرارگیری مراکز کم فشار برروی پهنه مطالعاتی و منابع آبی جنوب شیو فشاری شدیدی به وجود آمده است و با افزایش ارتفاع در سطح 500 هکتوپاسکال فرودی عمیق در راستای شمال شرق – جنوب غرب برروی ایران قرار گرفته و هسته ناوه کاملا خلیج فارس را دربر گرفته است که منطقه مورد مطالعه در بهترین حالت و درجلو ناوه که با هوای گرم و مرطوب واگرا شده قرار گرفته است. این عمیق شدن چرخند و نفوذ ناوه تا عرض­های پایین، ریزش هوای سرد را باعث شده است که در ادامه باعث تقویت ناوه موثر بر بارش ابرسنگین شده است. همچنین بیشترین فرارفت رطوبت از روی منابع آبی جنوب به روی منطقه مطالعاتی است و مقدار رطوبت برابر با 14 گرم در کیلوگرم از سمت دریای عمان وارد پهنه مطالعاتی شده و در ادامه به سمت سایر مناطق ایران از مقدار آن کاسته شده است و با افزایش ارتفاع، حداکثر فرارفت هوای گرم و مرطوب در جلو ناوه تراز فوقانی جو از روی دریای سرخ بر روی منطقه مطالعاتی است.<br>
<pre dir="LTR">
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:27.0pt"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:14.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Synoptic analysis of the torrential on Day 21, 1398 (Case study: Zahedan and Qeshm)</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:27.0pt"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></b></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Abstract</span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Rainfall is the most important phenomenon or feature of the environment and so far many studies have been done about its causes. In any place, rainfall occurs when humid air and climbing cause are provided.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Both of these conditions are provided by the circulation pattern.</span></span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:#f8f9fa"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">The study area is affected by some severe and sudden weather phenomena such as low annual rainfall, short rainfall period and rainfall in the form of heavy showers.</span></span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Thus, it is possible that the limited and pervasive precipitation of the area is due to a different synoptic pattern.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Because the relationship between circulation patterns and precipitation is significant</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">, </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">achieving acceptable results in the field of the relationship between these patterns with the limit and total rainfall of the studying area requires the analysis of synoptic maps.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Therefore, the most important purpose of the present study is the synoptic analysis of heavy cloud rainfall of the studying area on Day </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">1398.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Two sets of data were required for this study: A: Daily precipitation data of study stations on the day of heavy cloud rainfall on 21 Day (January 11, 2020) along with daily precipitation data in the days before the flood (96 hours before the flood) which was received from the main Meteorological Organization of the country.</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">B: </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">atmosphere data levels including: sea level (SLP),</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">850 and 500 hPa levels</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">,</span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> vertical atmospheric velocity and wind flow levels of 1000, 850 and 500 hPa</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">,</span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> specific humidity of 1000 and 700 hPa levels</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">and 250 hPa surface flow winds</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">for study days from the US National Center for Environmental Forecasting / National Atmospheric Research Center</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> (NCEP/NCAR)</span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> were provided in the range of 0 to 60 degrees at north latitude and 0 to 80 degrees at east longitude, and finally, maps were drawn and prepared in Gardes software to provide the ability to interpret.</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">The synoptic analysis of sea level showed that: </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">on the day of the heavy cloud, a low-height closed center with a central core of 1,010 hPa in the northeast-southwest direction covered the entire study area</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">. </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Then, the high-height with a central core equal to 1030 hPa is located at northwest of Iran, northwest of Europe and on Tibet.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">According to the location of high-pressure dams around Iran and the location of low-pressure centers on the study area and water resources in the south, a strong pressure has been created</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">. </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Subsequently, with height increasing, low-height with central core equal to 1440 geopotential meters is located at northeast-southwest direction of entire study area.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">And the low height of northern Russia extends to the Persian Gulf and provides the conditions for severe ascent and instability in a very large area.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">The rear dams of Nave transferred the cold air of the high latitudes into the bottom of the Nave located on the study area and have intensified the instability. Also, the geopotential height of 500 hPa level of deep descent is located at the northeast-southwest direction of Iran and core of the Nave covers the Persian Gulf completely, that is the study area in the best condition and in front of the Nave, which is diverged by hot and humid weather.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">This deepening of the rotation and the penetration of the Nave to the lower latitudes caused the cold air to fall. </span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="background:#f8f9fa"><span style="color:#202124">The analysis of the 250-hectopascal-level flow-wind shows that the flow-wind with a core speed of 65 meters per second has covered the entire study area by crossing above the Persian Gulf, and compared to the previous days, the flow-wind is completely meridional.</span></span><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Synoptic analysis of the vertical velocity at the level of 1000 hPa shows that the maximum negative omega -0.2 to -0.15 Pascal per second in the northwest-southeast direction has covered the study area.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">The presence of negative omega index values indicates the role of convection in intensifying precipitation in mentioned area and the dynamic ascent of air.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">The study map shows that compared to other countries in the study map, the maximum of negative omega is located on Iran, which is reduced along to the west of Iran.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">With increasing altitude, the maximum negative omega has increased to -0.3 Pascal per second and the core of the maximum negative omega is completely located on the study stations (Zahedan and Qeshm).</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Then, at the level of 500 hPa, the maximum negative omega has reached -0.6 Pascal per second and its value has doubled compared to the level of 850 hPa, which covers the northeast-southwest direction from Zahedan to the Strait of Hormuz.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Cold air fall has increased with increasing of omega levels in the middle levels of the atmosphere.</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:#f8f9fa"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">In other words, in the middle levels of the atmosphere, with increasing temperature difference between the earth's surface and the level of 500 </span></span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">hPa</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:#f8f9fa"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">, the amount of precipitation has increased.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Synoptic analysis of specific moisture level of 1000 hPa shows that the most moisture deposition was from south water sources to the study area</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">, </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">and the amount of moisture equal to 14 grams per kilogram has entered the study area from the Oman Sea and then its amount has been reduced crossing to other regions of Iran.</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:#f8f9fa"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> Furthermore, at the level of 700 hPa, the maximum advection of hot and humid air is in front of the upper atmosphere of Nave from the Red Sea over the study area</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">. </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">There is a moisture strip from the southeast to the whole area under analysis</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">. </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">These suitable humidity conditions with the depth of the western wave have been able to cause heavy cloud rainfall.</span></span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">The maximum amount of moisture in the study area is equal to 7 grams per kilogram, which is a large amount compared to heavy rainfalls.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124">Keywords:</span></span></span></span></b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"> heavy rainfall, flood, synoptic, Zahedan, Qeshm</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#202124"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
</pre>
بارش سنگین, سیل, همدید, زاهدان, قشم
heavy rainfall, flood, synoptic, Zahedan, Qeshm
119
134
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1270-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
Rasool
Nooriara
رسول
نوری آرا
nooriara.r@yahoo.com
100319475328460010442
100319475328460010442
No
دانشگاه آزادواحدعلوم وتحقیقات
seysd jamalaldin
daryabari
سیدجمال الدین
دریاباری
Mohammadalidaryabari9@gmail.com
100319475328460010443
100319475328460010443
Yes
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Bohlol
Alijani
بهلول
علیجانی
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100319475328460010444
100319475328460010444
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دانشگاه خوارزمی
Reza
Borna
رضا
برنا
bornareza@yahoo.com
100319475328460010445
100319475328460010445
No
دانشگاه آزادواحداهواز