@article{ 
author = {Roshani, Mahmoud and Saligheh, Mohammad and Alijani, Bohlol and BegumHejazizadeh, Zahr},  
title = {Synoptic Analysis of Summer Dry Spells in Southern Coasts of the Caspian Sea and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation}, 
abstract ={In this study, the synoptic patterns of the warm period of the year that lead to the cessation of rainfall and the creation of short to long dry spells were identified and analyzed. For this purpose, the rainfall data of 8 synoptic stations were used to identify the dry spells of the warm season for 30 years (1986 to 2015). The average daily rainfall of each station was used as the threshold value to distinguish between wet and dry spells. Then, according to the effects of dry spells, they were defined subjectively and objectively with different durations. Thus, 5 numerical periods of 12 to 15, 15 to 30, 30 to 45, 45 to 60 and more than 60 days were identified. By factor analysis of Geopotential height data at 500 hPa, 4 components were identified for each period and a total of 20 components for 5 dry spells. Therefore, 5 common patterns control the stable weather conditions of dry spells. Most dry days are caused by subtropical high-pressure nuclei, which have a wide, even, dual-core, triple-core arrangement. The effect of subtropical high pressure on the dryness of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea is quite evident. Other dry days were caused by southerly currents, weakening of northern currents, and the trough Anticyclones’ area. Also, the anomaly map of the components days at the 500 hPa level showed that the anticyclones and cyclones correspond to the positive and negative phases of the anomalies, respectively.},  
Keywords = {Threshold level, dry spells, factor analysis, synoptic patterns, southern coasts of the Caspian Sea.},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {1-20}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.1},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3163-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3163-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {jafari, mohammadreza and shadfer, samad and pairevan, hamidreza and asgari, shamsol},  
title = {Assessing the potential of landslides in Sivan basin, Ilam province and the impact of that vulnerability of the region}, 
abstract ={In this research, by preparing a distribution map of landslide areas and assessing the potential of landslide vulnerability in the Sivan basin, it has been tried to identify the resources at risk in different zones of vulnerability, then the environmental stability of the basin against the potential Vulnerability due to landslides should be investigated.. For this purpose, the information layers of landslide areas, agricultural lands, forests, residential areas and roads were prepared in the GIS environment. Then, the prepared layers based on the model (Index Overlay) were weighted and classified using the Class Maps Multi method and using expert opinion.According to the results obtained from the research, 44 landslides were determined in the Sivan basin, 17 of which could be measured and investigated in the field, 10 of which were in mountainous areas and were inaccessible and 12 of which could not be reached at all. The arena was not identified and 5 cases have been leveled due to the change of use to gardens and facilities. In the following, the potential vulnerability map of Sivan basin landslides in five vulnerability classes: very low (19846 hectares), low (1793 hectares), medium (741 hectares), high (2089 hectares) and very high (871 hectares) was prepared. In terms of environmental stability, the most damages caused by landslides in the Sivan basin are respectively related to communication roads and forest areas, which are in the range of high and very high vulnerability, agricultural lands are in the range of damage. Medium and lowest acceptability is related to residential areas, which is in a very low range. In the investigation of the environmental stability of the basin, it has been determined that there is a potential for vulnerability in all the mentioned cases, but it will be more intense in the direction of communication roads.  },  
Keywords = {Vulnerability potential, landslide, information layers, weighting, Sivan Basin},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {21-34}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.21},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3375-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3375-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Gheysvandi, Fatemeh and MasoompourSamakosh, Jafar and Mojarrad, Firouz and Ghahramani, Aminallah},  
title = {Classification of Persistent Rainfall in the West of Iran Based on Frequency of Occurrence Using the Lamb-Jenkinson Method}, 
abstract ={The occurrence of persistent rainfall, resulting from the integration of multi-scale cyclonic systems, is prone to producing heavy to severe precipitation. Therefore, it is highly significant due to its potential to cause disasters such as floods and landslides, as well as its importance in water resource management for agricultural purposes. In this study, persistent rainfall refers to rainfall events lasting at least three consecutive days with a total precipitation of more than 1 millimeter. The aim of this research is to identify and classify these types of rainfall for the western region of Iran over a 30-year statistical period (1993 to 2022) for the first time using the Lamb-Jenkinson method. In this method, the central coordinates of the study area are used as the reference point in the calculations. Sixteen additional points are also determined around the reference point. With the availability of instantaneous standard sea-level pressure data for these points, it becomes possible to calculate the values of geostrophic wind and vorticity. By comparing these two quantities, the types of weather patterns in the L-J method—which include four types: directional, cyclonic, hybrid, and undefined—are identified and categorized. Disregarding the undefined category, it was ultimately determined that the provinces of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, and Ilam each had 50, 50, 50, 40, and 39 occurrences of the directional state, respectively. Moreover, the frequencies of the cyclonic state for these provinces were 69, 94, 65, 66, and 38, respectively, with cyclonic rotation percentages of 100%, 98%, 97%, 95%, and 97%, respectively. As for the hybrid state, the frequencies obtained for each province were 49, 53, 43, 41, and 38, respectively.  },  
Keywords = {Persistent Rainfall, Geostrophic Wind, Vorticity, Rotation, Lamb-Jenkinson, West of Iran.},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {35-48}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.35},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3476-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3476-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {shabani, saeid and mohseni, behrooz and kornejady, aiding and ahmadi, akram and faramarzi, hassan and silakhori, esmaeil},  
title = {Spatial Prediction of Deforestation in Iran’s Hyrcanian Forests: Integrating Climatic, Topographic, and Anthropogenic Factors}, 
abstract ={Deforestation is one of the primary challenges and environmental threats facing forest ecosystems, including the Hyrcanian forests, and occurs under the influence of various natural and anthropogenic drivers. This study aimed to model the probability of deforestation occurrence within the Loveh forest management district located in northern Iran. The dataset comprised 104 documented deforestation points and 14 explanatory variables, derived through spatial analysis using GIS and environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic data. To assess the relationships among variables and predict the likelihood of deforestation, two statistical models were employed: logistic regression and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The results revealed that the GAM outperformed the logistic regression model, achieving a higher Kappa coefficient (0.84) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) value (0.956), and providing a more realistic spatial distribution of deforestation risk. The most influential variables included distance from roads, slope, wind effect, and elevation. Based on the GAM output, approximately 20% of the study area was categorized as high and very high risk. These findings underscore the pivotal role of access infrastructure, human pressure, and climatic factors in accelerating deforestation processes. The results of this study can serve as a scientific basis for prioritizing conservation interventions, reassessing road development policies, and enhancing spatial planning for sustainable forest management in northern Iran.  },  
Keywords = {Probability of occurrence, Road development, Kappa coefficient, Human factors, Sustainable management},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {49-62}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.49},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3492-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3492-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Mohammadlo, Maryam and Einali, Jamshid and Raispour, Kohzad and Abbasi, MohammadJavad and Abbasi, Ghamar},  
title = {Evaluating the Vulnerability of Tourist Destinations in Tarom township to Natural Hazards}, 
abstract ={Objective: As a result of its distinct natural and geographical conditions, Tarom township is highly vulnerable to a range of natural hazards, including floods, earthquakes, and Mass movements. Given the region's increasing popularity as a tourist destination, the implementation of effective risk management strategies is imperative. As a foundational step toward this goal, it is essential to identify, prioritize, and spatially delineate the natural hazards present in the area. Methods: This study commenced with the development of a comprehensive checklist and risk matrix aimed at identifying the predominant hazards and evaluating the significance of their consequences. To obtain a reliable group consensus, a Delphi survey was conducted involving 10 experts across three iterative rounds. Furthermore, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) was employed to assign weights and prioritize the evaluation criteria. Subsequently, by integrating the hazard layers with the derived fuzzy weights using ArcGIS software, the vulnerability of natural hazards affecting tourist destinations within the study area was spatially delineated and presented through detailed zoning maps for each hazard category. Results: In this study, to assess the vulnerability status of three hazards (floods, earthquakes, and Mass movements) the criteria were weighted and fuzzified, resulting in the production of vulnerability maps for each hazard. Consequently, the vulnerability levels of tourist destinations against these hazards were determined. Conclusions: The results indicate that among the natural hazards analyzed in the region, floods hold the highest level of importance, followed by earthquakes and mass movements. Furthermore, the spatial vulnerability mapping reveals that the highest flood vulnerability is concentrated in the tourist destinations of Chavarzagh, Lar, Sorkhabad, the ShirinSu–Siahvarud corridor, and Kordabad. In terms of earthquake risk, the city of Abbar shows a very high level of vulnerability, followed by Chavazagh, the village of Deh-Bahar, and the Heshtarkhan waterfall area in Lar. Regarding Mass movements hazards, the areas most exposed to vulnerability include the ShirinSu–Siahvarud corridor, the region of Valider, the Heshtarkhan waterfall area in Lar, and Sorkhabad.},  
Keywords = {Natural Hazards, Tourist destinations, Risk Matrix, Tarom township.},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {63-80}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.63},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3497-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3497-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Soleimani, Mohammad and Nemati, Tahereh and Karami, Tajeddin and Zanganeh, Ahmad and Parizadi, Taher},  
title = {Analysis of spatial distribution patterns of population aging in Tehran metropolis}, 
abstract ={Aging is one of the most prominent indicators of demographic decline that most modern societies experience. At this stage of demographic decline, alongside a decrease and stabilization of mortality rates, birth rates also sharply decline. The development of technology and the mechanization of tasks, the improvement of quality of life and health-related indicators, individual-centered lifestyles, and increased economic inflation are significant factors in this issue. Iran is also among the countries on the verge of entering the stage of demographic decline. However, the intensity of this trend varies in different regions of the country. This article examines and analyzes the state of aging in the neighborhoods of the metropolis of Tehran. This research falls into the category of applied research in terms of purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The research is based on the census data from 2016 and utilizes spatial statistical analyses. The positive values of Moran's autocorrelation analysis for each of the indices: aging (0.664), old-age dependency ratio (0.644), youth ratio (0.653), aging ratio (0.664), and aging index (0.665) in the neighborhoods of Tehran indicate a clustered pattern. This means that the issue of aging is more acute in some neighborhoods and areas of Tehran. Accordingly, the density of the elderly population is higher in most neighborhoods of the central and northern parts of the city. The final result shows that the distribution of the elderly space follows the logic of the social macro-ecology of Tehran and is relatively consistent with its natural-social topography. Furthermore, the spatial analysis of aging in the neighborhoods of this city shows that although all neighborhoods generally grapple with the issue of aging, planning and management should be based on the patterns and nature of the spatial distribution of this issue.  },  
Keywords = {Aging, spatial distribution patterns, spatial autocorrelation, metropolis of Tehran},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {81-98}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.81},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3491-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3491-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Ghasemi, Maryam and EbrahimiDarbandi, Hadi and Yarahmadi, Mitr},  
title = {A Study of Strategies of Semi-Nomadic Nomads in Facing Drought (Case Study: The Darbandis of Kalat Naderi County)}, 
abstract ={Drought is one of the most important challenges faced by pastoralists around the world. This phenomenon can have significant negative effects on livestock health, production, and livelihoods. However, pastoralists can adapt to drought and reduce its negative effects by adopting various strategies. Semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi County, have been facing drought since 2007 due to their livestock farming. Since livestock farming has profound impacts on the lifestyle and livelihoods of these communities, the present study examines their experience in facing drought and identifies their management strategies in these conditions. The research method is qualitative and the research tool is in-depth interviews with 20 semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi. Sampling was purposeful and carried out until theoretical saturation was reached to ensure that a wide range of perspectives and experiences were collected. The data from the interviews were analyzed using a qualitative grounded theory approach to extract key patterns and concepts. According to the findings, the semi-nomadic Darbandi people of Kalat County have adopted various strategies in the face of drought, which are classified into four categories: rangeland and grazing management strategies, livestock nutrition management, water consumption management, and livelihood diversification. These results can be used as a basis for formulating better policies in the field of crisis management and rural development. Also, these results can be used for more effective planning to reduce the vulnerability of nomads to drought.},  
Keywords = {Drought management, adaptation, resilience, semi-nomadic people of Darbandi, Kalat Naderi County.},
volume = {12},
Number = {1}, 
pages = {99-116}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.99},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3471-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3471-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Gholizade, Vajihe and Saffari, Amir and Ahmadabadi, Ali and Karam, Amir},  
title = {Vulnerability assessment of Mashhad plain aquifer using the combination of DRASTIC and SI models}, 
abstract ={Introduction: Assessing the vulnerability and pollution of the aquifer is necessary for the management, development and allocation of land use, quality monitoring, prevention and protection of groundwater pollution. The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the qualitative vulnerability of the Mashhad plain aquifer in order to monitor and manage underground water resources and prevent its future pollution. Methodology: Mashhad plain is located in the northeast of Iran between Binaloud and Hezarmasjed mountains and in the watershed of the Kasfroud river, and its area is 2527 square kilometers. In this research, the vulnerability of the Mashhad Plain aquifer was evaluated with DRASTIC and SI models, and ArcGIS was used to analyze the parameters and prepare the vulnerability map. DRASTIC model is one of the overlap and index methods. In this method, the seven measurable parameters for the hydrogeological system include the depth of the groundwater level(D), net recharge(R), aquifer environment(A), soil environment(S), topography(T), Impact of the unsaturated Zone(I) and hydraulic conductivity(C) is used. The ratings for the sub-layers of each criterion vary from one to ten depending on their impact on the vulnerability potential. In SI method, five parameters of groundwater depth(D), net recharge (R), aquifer lithology(A), topography(T) and landuse(LU) are used for aquifer vulnerability. After preparing the SI model layers and weighting each of the layer classes using the functions available in the ArcGIS, the sensitivity index is obtained from the weighted sum of the mentioned parameters. Conclusion: Study area is divided into four zones with very low vulnerability(21.85%), low(32.09%), medium to low(31.05%) and medium to high vulnerability(14.59%). Also, based on the results of the SI model, the study area is divided into five areas with very low vulnerability(0.4%), low(24.63%), medium to low(23.98%), medium to high(18.71%) and high vulnerability(32.25%). In general, the vulnerability of the aquifer increases from the southeast to the northwest.For verification, statistical method and calculation of correlation coefficient between vulnerability maps and TDS layer was used in TerrSet software and the results showed that both DRASTIC and SI models have high accuracy in zoning the vulnerability of Mashhad plain aquifer, so that the correlation coefficient of vulnerability maps with index The quality of TDS in Drastic model is (0.996) and in SI model (0.995); Therefore, the results of the following research can be used in environmental assessments and analysis of various pollutions and can be used as a basis for management decisions.},  
Keywords = {vulnerability, Mashhad plain aquifer, DRASTIC, SI},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {1-18}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.1},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3334-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3334-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {arekhi, saleh and Kour, Habib Allah and Emadaddian, Somi},  
title = {Modeling and forecasting the risk of forest degradation on the emitting amount of carbon dioxide gas using the REDD model (Case study: Cities of Chalus and Nowshahr)}, 
abstract ={Reducing the emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation REDD is a strategy to moderate climate change, which is used to reduce the intensity of deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. In the last few decades, drastic changes in land use have caused a significant decrease in Hyrkan forests located in Mazandaran province. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to investigate the changes in land use and its prediction for the year 2050 using the Markov chain and the REDD project to reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the cities of Nowshahr and Chalus. Using the images of TM and ETM+ sensors of Landsat satellite, a land use map has been prepared in three time periods related to the years 1989, 2000 and 2021. Maximum likelihood method was used to classify images from supervised classification. From the error matrix, the Kappa coefficient in this evaluation was equal to 0.83 for 1989, 0.81 for 2000, and 0.92 for 2021. The results show that the forest cover decreases in 2050. In contrast, the area of ​​range land, city, barren land, agriculture and wetland will increase. Based on the goals of the REDD project, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2050. If the REDD project is not implemented, a large area of ​​forest cover will be destroyed and a lot of carbon dioxide is released. The amount of carbon dioxide in the project area in 2021 is 49,681 tons and will reach 806,732 tons by 2051, and with the implementation of the REDD project in the region, this amount of gas can be increased to the equivalent of 402,321 tons. 404411 tons of carbon dioxide was prevented from entering the upper atmosphere of the earth. Examining changes using satellite images can help managers and planners to make more informed decisions.  },  
Keywords = {Markov chain, remote sensing, kappa coefficient, carbon dioxide gas, REDD project},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {19-48}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.19},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3456-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3456-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Asdalahi, Enayat and Akbary, Mehry and Hejazizadeh, Zahr},  
title = {Seasonal distribution analysis of widespread torrential rains in Iran}, 
abstract ={Objective: The main goal of this research is to identify and analyze the seasonality of the most widespread Torrential rains in Iran during the years 1940 to 2023. Methods: To achieve this goal, precipitation data was obtained from the ECMWF database with a spatial resolution of 0.25 by 0.25 degrees of arc for the Iranian region during the study period. The next step was to calculate the threshold of torrential precipitation for each cell seasonally using the 95th percentile, and days with torrential precipitation were identified. By applying the condition of the highest spatial spread of the 95th percentile, the days with the most widespread precipitation above the threshold were identified for each season. Finally, the prevailing atmospheric conditions were examined. Results: Analysis  shows that the highest precipitation of 146.85 mm occurs in winter and the lowest of 85 mm occurs in summer. The highest spatial coverage of total precipitation occurs in spring (41.9), winter (40.69), autumn (32.55) and summer (16.84), respectively.The analysis of sea level pressure indicates that during widespread precipitation in the summer, a low-pressure belt extended from the westernmost to the easternmost regions of the upper atmosphere map, encompassing Iran. In contrast, during other seasons, a high-pressure belt was present in the same area. At the 500 hectopascal level in summer, a closed high-pressure dynamic cell was observed over Iran, while at the 850 hectopascal level, two low-pressure centers over Saudi Arabia and Pakistan intensified instability over Iran. Consequently, it is evident that at lower levels, the conditions for atmospheric precipitation were stable, and even the omega level at 500 hectopascals over Iran on that day indicated a weak upward movement of air. However, in other seasons, a trough consistently positioned over western Iran, with active band patterns in spring and winter, facilitated the slowing and diversion of currents toward moisture sources, thereby enabling the transfer of more moisture than normal conditions to Iran. The precipitation study revealed that, except for the summer season, wind dominated over Iran. The presence of wind intensified instability at lower levels. A study of the Atmospheric River reveals that during widespread rainfall across all seasons, the Atmospheric River, which originates from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, has consistently been present. However, in the fall and winter seasons, a branch from the Mediterranean Sea also contributes, resulting in increased rainfall.},  
Keywords = {Torrential rainfall, widespread, 95th percentile index, seasonal, Iran},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {49-66}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.49},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3482-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3482-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {sabouri, saeedmohammad and Garakani, Sayed Amirhossie},  
title = {Spatial analysis of land subsidence risk in rural settlements of Iran}, 
abstract ={Objective: Investigating the occurrence of land subsidence in the country and the extent to which rural settlements are exposed to the phenomenon of land subsidence. Methods: The present study was based on library surveys and studies, field observations and impressions. Using information received from the National Mapping Organization, a map of the country's subsidence zones and the degree of risk of each zone, including very low, low, medium, high and very high risk, was drawn, and the aforementioned maps were compared with the location of the villages. Results: According to the analysis of the available data, 302 villages are at very high risk, 768 villages are at high risk, 834 villages are in the medium risk zone, and 573 villages are in the low risk zone. In terms of percentage weight, about 4 percent of the country's villages are at medium to very high risk of subsidence, of which 1,904 villages are at medium to very high risk, and 573 villages are at low risk. Conclusions: The highest provincial distribution of villages at risk of subsidence in the country with a very high degree is in the provinces of Alborz, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan and Hamedan, and the highest provincial distribution with a high degree is in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Alborz, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Semnan, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan, East Azerbaijan, Hamedan and Yazd. Also, the highest provincial distribution of villages at risk of medium-level subsidence is in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Alborz, Tehran, Semnan, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hormozgan, Hamedan, and Yazd.},  
Keywords = {Rural settlements, land subsidence, natural hazards, sinkholes, threats},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {67-90}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.67},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3435-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3435-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Heidari, Sousan and Karimi, Mostafa and Azizi, Ghasem and Shamsipour, AliAkbar},  
title = {An Analysis of the Dynamics of the Spatial Behavior of Drought in Iran}, 
abstract ={Drought is one of the most significant natural hazards, characterized by complex spatiotemporal patterns. This study analyzes the structural and spatial characteristics of droughts in Iran across three temporal scales: annual, seasonal, and monthly. To achieve this, the intensity and extent of droughts were calculated using the RAI index and ERA5 monthly precipitation data over 42 years (1979–2021). Initially, the spatial distribution and directional trends of the drought centroid were examined, and its spatial variations over the years were analyzed. Additionally, the relationship between the location of the drought centroid and its extent was investigated. The results revealed that during the cold season, the drought centroid is primarily concentrated in central Iran, while in the warm season, it shifts toward the northwest, the Caspian Sea coast, and the southeastern regions of the country. The distribution pattern of droughts at all scales predominantly follows a northwest-to-southeast trajectory. Furthermore, shifts in the drought centroid toward the northeast, east, southeast, and south were observed to coincide with an increase in drought extent, whereas shifts toward the north, northwest, and west were associated with a reduction in drought extent. Overall, the findings of this study demonstrate a direct relationship between the location of the drought centroid and changes in drought extent, despite the fact that droughts in Iran lack consistent and predictable spatiotemporal patterns  },  
Keywords = {Center of Gravity, Spatial Structure of Drought, Directional Distribution of Drought, Drought Path Tracking},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {91-108}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.91},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3475-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3475-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {KavyanpourSangeno, Esmaeil and Motavalli, Sadroddin and Gholami, Sara and Ghobadi, Gholamreza Janbaz},  
title = {Examination of Smart Growth Indicators on Waste Management in the Coastal City of Mahmoudabad}, 
abstract ={Waste management is one of the main challenges faced by modern cities. Given the population growth and the increasing generation of waste, there is a growing need for innovative and intelligent methods in this field. Smart growth indicators can serve as tools to improve urban waste management. A waste management system comprises a set of activities aimed at organizing community waste through engineering and sanitary approaches. One of the most significant problems of coastal areas is the lack of proper waste management. Smart growth in waste management focuses on integrating technology and sustainable practices to optimize waste collection, reduce environmental impacts, and promote recycling. This study presents key indicators and trends related to smart waste management. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data via a descriptive survey. The study collected opinions from 20 experts in waste management and urban growth issues, as well as from randomly selected residents of Mahmoudabad city. Data analysis was conducted using grounded theory for qualitative data and structural equation modeling for quantitative data. The results indicate that the smart growth indicator of modern leadership, with a mean score of 4.6, and adequate infrastructure, with a mean score of 4.04, hold the highest average values among the smart growth indicators affecting waste management in the coastal city of Mahmoudabad.  },  
Keywords = {smart growth, management, waste, coastal city, Mahmood Abad},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {109-124}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.109},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3469-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3469-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Mahmoodi, Samira and noroozinezhad, Masoume},  
title = {Prioritization of factors affecting the physical-environmental and institutional resilience of rural settlements in the face of natural hazards (Case study: Divshal rural district, Langroud county)}, 
abstract ={The vulnerability of rural settlements to environmental hazards necessitates attention to local resilience. The aim of this study was to prioritize the factors affecting the physical-environmental and institutional resilience of Divshal rural district. The approach of the present study is descriptive-analytical and survey. Data collection was done in two forms: documentary and field (expert questionnaire). The statistical population of the study is 16 Rural managers of Divshal rural district. Using DEMATEL and ANP techniques, the obtained data were analyzed. According to the results of the ANP method, the sub-criteria of respecting the privacy of roads and preserving indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions have the greatest impact on the resilience of the study area. Also in the quality index of passages, sub-criteria of observing the privacy of passages; In the index of quality of access to services and infrastructure, quality of access to welfare and administrative services; In the shelter index, the existence of a strong public shelter in critical situations; In the index of quality of housing and constructions, preservation of indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions; In the environmental quality index, waste collection and disposal; In land use quality index, proper location of land uses; In the context of institutions, the existence of administrative organizations and institutions to help people; And in the Index of Institutional Relations, the cooperation of institutions in facilitating laws and giving credit to the people has the greatest effect on physical-environmental and institutional resilience.},  
Keywords = {resilience, physical-environmental resilience, institutional resilience, natural hazards.},
volume = {12},
Number = {2}, 
pages = {125-146}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},

doi = {10.61882/jsaeh.12.46.795.125},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3319-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3319-en.pdf},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {mirzaei, nabi and alijani, bouhlul and darand, moham},  
title = {The effect of subtropical high pressure on the position of Mediterranean cyclones and the occurrence of droughts and widespread wetness in Iran.}, 
abstract ={subtropical high pressure (STHP) and Mediterranean cyclone are among the most important synoptic systems affecting Iran's climate. In this study, the effect of the high altitude location of the sthp on the Mediterranean gyres during the droughts and wetness of Iran during 1979 to 2020 was analyzed. In this regard, two datasets were used. Station data were used to identify drought and wetness periods, and ECMWF-ERA5 grid data was used to identify the location of high pressure in the subtropical region. The results showed that STHP with 3 anticyclone cells (ridge) affects the position of atmospheric waves affecting Iran's rainfall. The STHP system, especially the Arabian Subtropical anticyclone (ASA) and North Africa, play a more important role in the location of the cyclone affecting Iran's rainfall, so that widespread droughts with the expansion of the ASA to the west and its integration with the African anticyclone, the lack of expansion of the Mediterranean trough to the sea Redness and reduction of Sudan low and Mediterranean integration systems occur. With the eastward movement of the ASA over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean trough deepens and the amount of waves and consequently the rainfall of the country increases. Therefore, the eastward expansion of the Arabian Peninsula and the strengthening of the North African Ridge provide the conditions for the expansion of the Mediterranean Sea. Whenever the ASA is located in its easternmost position on the Oman Sea and the Arabian Sea, it will lead to the advection of moisture for Iran through the access to the large areas of southern water and eventually rainfall. The main cause of the occurrence of drought and wetness in Iran is the spatial variations of atmospheric waves due to the spatial variations in the ASA.},  
Keywords = {subtropical high pressure, Arabian Subtropical anticyclone, Mediterranean cyclones, rainfall, Iran.},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3399-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3399-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Rayegani, Behzad and Barati, Susan and Izadian, Mo},  
title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Wetland Hydrology: A Case Study with Global Implications}, 
abstract ={Climate change stands out as one of the most pressing environmental challenges of the modern era, exerting profound impacts on aquatic ecosystems—particularly wetlands. This study investigates the influence of climate change on three wetlands in Chaldoran County, West Azerbaijan Province—Pir-Ahmadkandi, Naver, and Zavieh-ye Sofla—spanning the period from 1984 to 2023. To achieve this, climate data were obtained from the TerraClimate database and CMIP6 model outputs under four emission scenarios. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, along with JRC/GSW data, were processed to evaluate changes in wetland surface areas. Annual wetland extents were extracted and compared against climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalent) using time-series analysis, Pearson correlation, and multivariate regression. Additionally, the Delta Method was employed for downscaled climate data to project possible trends over the next 20 years. The results indicate that rising temperatures and evapotranspiration constitute the primary drivers of wetland shrinkage. Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver have lost over 27% and around 20% of their surface area, respectively, whereas Zavieh-ye Sofla exhibits an irregular, seasonal reduction due to human interventions and agricultural runoff. Projections suggest that wetland surfaces—especially in Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver—will continue to decline, potentially exacerbating drought conditions, diminishing biodiversity, and reducing water quality. These findings underscore the necessity of implementing sustainable water resource policies, controlling evaporation, and incorporating human impact assessments into conservation measures. Moreover, harnessing advanced hydrological modeling techniques and integrating remote sensing data with machine learning approaches may offer more effective strategies for safeguarding these vital wetland ecosystems.  },  
Keywords = {Climate Change, Wetlands, Remote Sensing, Evapotranspiration, Water Resource Management},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3500-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3500-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {AsghariSaraskanroud, Sayyad and SamadiShalvehAlia, Fatemeh and Hazbavi, Zeinab},  
title = {Assessment of Land Use/Land Cover Change Impact on Flood Hazard Zonation in the Samian Watershed"}, 
abstract ={Objective: Land use/land cover (LULC) changes, as one of the main anthropogenic drivers, significantly influence runoff patterns and intensify flood hazards. This study aims to assess the impact of land use changes on flood hazard zonation over the period 2015 to 2024 in the Samian watershed, located in Ardabil Province, Iran. Methodology: Satellite imagery from Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2 was utilized to extract land use maps for the years 2015 and 2024 using the Google Earth Engine platform. LULC classification was performed using the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm. Subsequently, the Modified Flash Flood Potential Index (MFFPI) model was applied by integrating key environmental layers, including slope, flow accumulation, land use, geology, curvature, and soil texture, within the ArcMap environment to generate flood hazard zonation maps. Findings: The results indicated substantial LULC changes between 2015 and 2024, including an 18.47% increase in irrigated agricultural lands, a 9.38% increase in residential areas, and a 25.85% rise in sparse rangelands. In contrast, dry farming lands decreased by 25.21%, dense rangelands by 9.14%, and snow-covered areas by 98.61%. These changes have led to a notable expansion of high-risk flood zones. The LULC classification achieved a high overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient exceeding 0.98, indicating reliable results. Conclusion: The expansion of impervious surfaces and reduction in natural vegetation cover have increased surface runoff and, consequently, the extent of high-risk flood-prone areas. The MFFPI model, by incorporating both environmental and anthropogenic factors, proved to be an effective tool for flood hazard prediction and management.  },  
Keywords = {Dynamic changes, Water resources, Flooding potential, Landsat},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3508-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3508-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Ebrahimi, Ataollah and Aghababaei, Masoumeh and Naghipour, | Ali Asghar and Asadi, Esmaeil},  
title = {Increasing the Plant Ecological Units monitoring accuracy with multi-sensor data fusion: a new approach in environmental hazards management}, 
abstract ={Objective: During a landscape, it is not facile to discriminate land parts that have dissimilar amounts and types of vegetation. Plant Ecological Units (PEUs) are known as management units and are a reflection of the management actions and natural disturbances in the region. This research aims to fuse different resolutions of satellite images to increase the PEUs classification accuracy. Methods: For this purpose, the Marjan-Borujen watershed in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province was selected. After field monitoring and surveys, four dominant PEUs groups were identified in the study area. In this study, bands from the Landsat_8 satellite images with 30 m  spatial resolution (bands 7_2) and a 15 m panchromatic band (band 8) were used, as well as the Sentinel_2 satellite images including panchromatic bands (8, 4, 2, 3) with 10 m spatial resolution. First step, using the Landsat panchromatic band, the 30-m bands were upgraded to 15 m through the pen-sharpening process; so the 15 m  data set was prepared from the Landsat_8 satellite. Then, to increase the spatial resolution of the 15-meter data set to 10 m, the Sentinel_2 panchromatic bands were used. In this way, the Sentinel_2 panchromatic bands were geometrically matched with the Landsat_8 15 m data set, and the Co-Registration process was performed with the minimum RMSE(0.05). Finally,  two data sets (2 to 8 bands) of the Landsat_8 satellite images with 15 m and 10 m spatial resolution, the PEUs classification maps were prepared using the RF classification algorithm, and the maps' accuracy was displayed as an error matrix. Results: The results show that increasing the spatial resolution significantly enhances the accuracy of PEUs classification maps. The 15 m set shows an overall classification map accuracy of 66%, while increasing the spatial resolution to 10 m enhances the overall accuracy to 82%. As well as, the error matrix results show that the classification map procured from the 10 m set, all four PEUs groups have improved the producer accuracy, user accuracy, and kappa agreement index. So, in this map, PEU 2 and PEU 3 have the highest kappa agreement coefficient (83 percent). Conclusions: This study shows that using the Gram-Schmidt fusion algorithm and consequently increasing the spatial resolution of Landsat 8 images from 30 m to 10 m reduces mixed pixels and increases pure pixels, which in turn improves the quality of PEU classification maps.  },  
Keywords = {Gram-Schmidt algorithm,  Image fusion,  Remote sensing, Plant Ecological Units.},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3507-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3507-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Qazizada, Abdul aziz and Omidvar, Kamal and muzafari, ghulmali and Mazedi, Ahmm},  
title = {Analysis of Synoptic Patterns in Heavy and Flooding Rainfalls in the Kabul Basin}, 
abstract ={Abstract Objective:The Kabul Basin is one of the most vulnerable regions in Afghanistan due to the frequency of heavy rainfalls and devastating floods. This study aims to identify heavy rainfall events (above 20 mm) and analyze their synoptic mechanisms, focusing on their causes and patterns. Methods:The study uses a descriptive-analytical approach based on daily rainfall data from 18 hydrometeorological stations in the Kabul Basin over the statistical period of 2008 to 2022. Heavy and flooding rainfall events were identified using the environmental-circulation method. Cluster analysis was conducted using Ward’s hierarchical clustering technique, and GrADS software was employed to extract and interpret synoptic maps. Results:The analysis revealed three main synoptic circulation patterns responsible for heavy rainfalls in the basin. Three representative days were selected for detailed analysis: March 23, 2009 (31 mm rainfall at Qala-e-Malak), March 17, 2014 (59 mm at Bagh-e-Umumi), and February 5, 2017 (60 mm at Qala-e-Malak). These events were associated with Mediterranean troughs, cold Siberian air intrusions, and Indian anticyclone influence, which collectively intensified rainfall. The findings suggest that these systems can be monitored in advance for early warning. Conclusions:Heavy and flooding rainfalls in the Kabul Basin are strongly influenced by specific synoptic systems and atmospheric interactions. Recognizing these patterns enables early detection of risk and can improve the efficiency of disaster preparedness, water resource management, and regional warning systems. This study provides valuable insight for reducing vulnerabilities and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events in the region.},  
Keywords = {Keywords: Cluster analysis,  Heavy and flooding rainfall, Kabul Basin, Synoptic pattern.},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3494-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3494-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Safarian, Vahi},  
title = {Analysis and Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran}, 
abstract ={Objective: This study aims to analyze greenhouse gas variations across Iran and to identify the gases that exert the greatest influence on their overall dynamics. The findings enhance understanding of atmospheric pollution patterns and support the development of effective mitigation strategies. These results provide a scientific basis for climate-change mitigation planning in Iran. The study relies on satellite-based remote sensing datasets. Methods: This study analyzes the temporal and spatial variations of major greenhouse gases including carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, water vapor, and methane across Iran from 2019 to 2024. Sentinel-5P satellite data were extracted via the Google Earth Engine platform, and after filtering and removing low-quality observations, the data were standardized using the Z-Score method to enhance comparability and correlation analysis. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce data dimensionality and identify dominant variation patterns. Temporal and spatial trends were then quantified using complementary statistical techniques. Results: Methane exhibited a consistent increasing trend from late 2021 through 2024 and accounted for the largest share of total variance (R² = 0.87), likely reflecting intensified anthropogenic activities and regional climatic shifts. CO, NO₂, and O₃ were mainly affected by seasonal fluctuations and nonlinear factors, and no clear long-term increasing or decreasing trends were observed. Water vapor showed a direct relationship with temperature variations, water sources, and atmospheric patterns, with its lowest concentrations recorded during the cold months and increases observed in the warm months. PCA analysis indicated that the first two principal components explained more than 70% of the total data variance, with CH₄, O₃, and NO₂ contributing the most to the overall variations. Conclusions: The study results indicated that greenhouse gas variations in Iran are simultaneously influenced by natural factors and human activities. The combination of satellite data, statistical analysis, and PCA enabled a precise assessment of the temporal and spatial trends of greenhouse gases, providing valuable information for planning pollutant reduction and developing strategies to combat climate change.  },  
Keywords = {Greenhouse gases,  PCA,  Remote Sensing,  Sentinel-5P Iran.},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3516-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3516-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Salahi, Bromand and Frotan, Mahdi},  
title = {Analysis of the Relationship between Wet and Dry Seasons in Northern Provinces of Iran with some Teleconnection Indices}, 
abstract ={The ENSO weather phenomenon, including El Niño and La Niña phases, has significant effects on precipitation, temperature, and drought patterns in different regions of the world. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between ENSO indices such as MEI, SOI, and NINO oscillations with drought indices (TCI, VCI, VHI, and SPI) in the provinces of Guilan, Golestan, and Mazandaran from 2013 to 2022. Satellite data of NDVI, LST, and precipitation were extracted from Google Earth Engine to calculate drought indices, and ENSO data were obtained from the NOAA website for correlation analysis. The results showed that the MEI index had a positive and significant correlation with SPI and showed a decrease in drought with an increase in precipitation, but had a weak relationship with other drought indices. The SOI index showed a negative and significant correlation with SPI, indicating the effect of La Niña on increasing drought, especially in Golestan province. The El Niño indices were positively correlated with SPI in the northern provinces of Iran, confirming the effect of reducing drought and increasing precipitation. During the El Niño phase, the northern regions of the studied provinces experienced an increase in temperature and the south of Mazandaran province experienced subzero temperatures, while during the La Niña phase, the temperature increased and the northern regions of the studied provinces experienced higher temperatures. Vegetation was denser in the south of Golestan province and the east of Mazandaran province during the El Niño phase, but it decreased during the La Niña phase. The SPI index showed that drought during the El Niño phase was more widespread and severe in the western half of the studied provinces and more extensive and severe during the La Niña phase. The VHI index showed better vegetation health in El Niño, especially in Gilan and Mazandaran provinces, and decreased health in La Niña phase, especially in Mazandaran and Golestan provinces.},  
Keywords = {ENDVI, ENSO, LST, Northern Provinces of Iran, Wet and Drought.},
volume = {12},
Number = {3}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3467-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3467-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Nasserzadeh, Mohammad Hossein and ZiaianFirouzabadi, Parviz and Hejazizadeh, zahra and Moradjani, shiri},  
title = {Detection and analysis of land cover forcing evapotranspiration in Karun basin using MODIS sensor products}, 
abstract ={This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration (ET) and its modulation by biophysical variables and land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the Karun River Basin, southwestern Iran, from 2000 to 2023. The basin, spanning 67,257 km² and characterized by diverse topography, experiences significant annual water loss (72% of 413 billion m³ national precipitation) due to ET, leading to salt and sediment accumulation. Data from MODIS products (MCD12Q1, MOD13A1, MCD43A3, MOD11A2, MOD16A3, CHIRPS) provided land cover, NDVI, albedo, LST, precipitation, and ET at 500-meter resolution, supplemented by Landsat imagery (30-meter resolution) for validation. Multiple regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analyses revealed a 39.5% ET increase (31.48 to 43.92 mm/year), a 32.78% NDVI rise (0.18 to 0.239), and a 16.35% LST decrease (33.52°C to 28.05°C), correlated with a 6.90% agricultural decline (6,939,225 to 6,460,335 ha), a 6.94% rangeland increase (3,840,375 to 4,106,780 ha), and a 42.76% forest expansion (156,000 to 222,700 ha). GWR (AdjR² > 0.97, peak 0.9887 in 2010) identified spatial non-stationarity, with overprediction in mountainous northeast regions and underprediction in agricultural southwest plains, reflecting LULC influences. Landsat-derived false color composites and classifications (overall accuracy 85–90%, Kappa 0.85–0.90) validated a 2,477 km² forest loss to high-ET rangelands/agriculture, driving warm-season ET elevation. Results emphasize the need for integrated hydrological models incorporating irrigation data and high-resolution analyses to enhance sustainable water management in this water-stressed region.},  
Keywords = {Detection, Land Cover, Evapotranspiration, Karun Basin, MODIS Sensor},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3493-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3493-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {norouzi, rana and Eftekhari, Sayyd Morovat and Ahmadabadi, Ali},  
title = {Risk Modeling of Land Subsidence Using the Random Forest Algorithm (Case Study: Eshtehard Plain)}, 
abstract ={Objective: Over the past two decades, land subsidence has emerged as a significant geomorphological hazard and one of the most critical environmental crises in Iran, causing irreversible damage to many plains each year. Among its primary current causes is the excessive and unregulated extraction of groundwater. The Eshtehard Plain, recognized as one of the industrial and agricultural hubs of Alborz province, is no exception. Due to severe groundwater depletion, it has been officially declared a critical zone by the Ministry of Energy. The objective of this study is to model the risk of land subsidence in this plain using the Random Forest algorithm and to analyze the contributing factors influencing its occurrence Methods: In this study, twelve independent spatial layers were utilized, including: digital elevation model (DEM), distance to rivers, distance to qanats, distance to wells, distance to faults, groundwater depth, drainage density, soil type, lithology, land use, topographic wetness index (TWI), and solar radiation. The dependent layer consisted of subsidence zones. The Random Forest model was implemented in the R software environment. Two key importance measures—Mean Decrease Accuracy and Mean Decrease Gini—were employed to rank, assess the significance of, and assign weights to the contributing factors of land subsidence. Finally, model performance was evaluated using three complementary metrics: Accuracy, Kappa, and AUCResults: The results demonstrated that the Random Forest model achieved high accuracy in classifying land subsidence risk. Model evaluation showed strong performance with an overall accuracy of 0.963, a Kappa coefficient of 0.611, and an AUC value of 0.955, indicating that the model is highly effective for spatial risk zoning of land subsidence. The most influential variables in subsidence occurrence were identified as groundwater depth, distance to wells, geology, and land use. Furthermore, more than 65% of the study area was categorized as high-risk and very high-risk, reflecting the critical condition of the Eshtehard Plain. Notably, the share of urban land use has shown a steady increase from 2011 to 2023, with a significant spike in 2023, where increased population concentration has placed additional pressure on groundwater resources, leading to an intensification of subsidence in affected areas Conclusions: The Random Forest algorithm successfully modeled the spatial distribution of land subsidence risk with high accuracy. This method can serve as an effective tool for informed decision-making in groundwater resource management, sustainable development planning, and hazard mitigation in similar regions.  },  
Keywords = {Eshtehard Plain,  Random Forest,  land subsidence,  modeling},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3505-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3505-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {zaboli, Saeedeh and JahanbakhshAsl, Saeed and Khorshiddoust, Ali Mohammad and Khosravi, Mahmoo},  
title = {Analysis of  Synoptic Patterns and Modeling of Dust Transport and Dispersion Pathways in Kerman Province}, 
abstract ={Dust storms rank among the most significant natural hazards in the world’s arid and semi-arid regions, inflicting irreparable damage across multiple sectors each year. Given the rising frequency of dust storms in Kerman Province and other desert and arid areas of Iran, it is imperative to undertake a study aimed at identifying the synoptic patterns that precipitate dust events and at determining their source regions as well as their transport and dispersion pathways. In this research, the conditions and origins of dust storm formation over the 2000–2023 period were examined using synoptic and remote-sensing methods. The HYSPLIT model was applied to track airflow trajectories, and factor analysis together with cluster analysis were used to identify the synoptic patterns responsible for dust generation. Finally, the principal source regions of dust were delineated. The results revealed that 63% of the province’s dust storms originate from domestic sources, whereas 37% originate from other areas. Three main atmospheric patterns were identified as drivers of dust activity in Kerman Province: 1. The co-advection of simultaneous low-pressure and high-pressure systems; 2. A lower-tropospheric cutoff low pressure in conjunction with the Siberian high; 3. A pressure-gradient regime featuring a core of elevated wind speeds. Modeling of transport and dispersion pathways indicated that 60% of externally sourced dust is advected from the Arabian Peninsula, while 55% of dust emitted disperses southward, impacting the Makran coast and the Sea of Oman. Analysis of source regions further showed that the desert areas of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, as well as those of North Africa, together with internal sources such as the dried Jazmourian wetland, the Lut Desert, the Hamun region, and the Tabas Desert, contribute most substantially to the dust events observed in Kerman Province.  },  
Keywords = {Cluster Analysis, Factor Analysis, Kerman, Dust, Synoptic Analysis},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3501-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3501-en.doc},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {rahimi, nafiseh and faraj, abdo},  
title = {Analysis of the june(2024) flood in Ardabil Province with an emphasis on synoptic patterns}, 
abstract ={Objective: in recent decades, population growth, urbanization development, and change in land use have led flooding as one of the most destructive natural disasters in the world. Therefore, our goal is to identify flood areas and the synoptic patterns that lead to it, which are among the most important issues in preventing and reducing the effects of flooding and dealing with it. Methods: In this study, in order to prepare a map of flooded areas, the extent of the floodwater that occurred in June (2024) in Ardabil province, were processed SAR radar images before and after the flood. Then, to identify synoptic patterns, daily maps of geopotential height at 500 hectopascals, sea level pressure at 1000 hectopascals, omega pressure at 500 hectopascals, and relative humidity at 700 hectopascals with a spatial resolution of 2.5 degrees in 2.5 degrees latitude were received and analyzed from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) of the United States. Results: The flood area study indicated that in the studied province, Bilehsavar city with an area of 593 hectares, Parsabad city with 505 hectares, Meshkin-shahr with 245 hectares, and Germi city with 192 hectares were flooded due to the waterlog. The analysis of the flood zones also showed that the largest volume of flood entering Ardabil Province during the studied period was related to the northern cities of the province, where the provision of all moisture conditions and instability at the full depth of the troposphere layer led to the occurrence of heavy flood-causing rainfall in these areas. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that the use of radar data, due to its outstanding capabilities, is a useful tool in detecting and continuously monitoring of floods. Therefore, by detecting flood-prone areas and synoptic conditions that produce floods, executive managers can make the best decisions to deal with possible future floods.  },  
Keywords = {Ardabil Province, Flood, June 2024, Radar Images, Synoptic Patterns,},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3443-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3443-en.doc},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Hooshyar, Mahmou},  
title = {Survey the surface temperature of the earth in relation to land use using satellite images and remote sensing (case study of Bukan city).}, 
abstract ={Land use is one of the most important aspects of studying natural resources management and reviewing environmental changes, and studying it is also very important in understanding the microclimate of urban areas. Therefore, according to the importance of the topic in this research, the spatial pattern of land use changes and surface temperature in Bukan city in the statistical period of 1990-2020 using Landsat satellite images and sensors (OLI-TIRS, ETM+, TM) and the separate window algorithm. was evaluated. The results showed that the land use of the area has changed a lot during the period under review, so that the residential use has increased and the agricultural use has decreased. The results of the survey of the earth's surface temperature also showed that in 1990, the highest temperature was related to pasture areas and barren lands with a temperature between 32 and 40 degrees Celsius and the lowest temperature was related to areas with dense vegetation with a temperature between 15 and 20 degrees. It is Celsius. The temperature in residential and urban areas varies between 28 and 31 degrees Celsius. In 2020, the average temperature of pasture use was 35 degrees Celsius, residential use was 30 degrees Celsius, and garden and agricultural land was 14 and 24 degrees Celsius, which, apart from pasture use, which did not change significantly, other studied uses increased. They show a temperature of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius compared to 1990. The examination of the temperature in relation to the land use changes showed that there is a high correlation between the land cover and the surface temperature of the land, so that in some of the sampled places, it showed that the change in the use of gardens Residential use or pasture has caused an increase of 15 to 20 degrees Celsius in the temperature of the earth's surface in these areas. Based on the results of land use and overall vegetation, it has an indirect and strong relationship with the surface temperature of the earth, and with the increase in the area of residential and barren lands and the decrease of vegetation and agricultural lands, the surface temperature of the earth will increase.},  
Keywords = {Earth surface temperature, land use, remote sensing, Bukan city.},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3371-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3371-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {sharifi, Shaida and Nosrati, Abdullah and Nayyeri, Hadi},  
title = {Assessing Seismic Resilience of Urban Water Distribution Networks: A Case Study of Sanandaj, Iran}, 
abstract ={                     This study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the urban water distribution network in the Feyzabad and Baharan districts of Sanandaj against the parameter of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV). The main objective is to identify the key factors influencing network vulnerability and to propose strategies for enhancing the resilience of this critical infrastructure. PGV values were derived based on data from 40 faults longer than 10 km within a 70 km radius of the city, using empirical attenuation relationships. Geological, geomorphological, soil type, and pipe diameter and material data were collected from reliable local sources.In the AHP model, the main criteria including PGV, geology, soil, pipe material, and pipe diameter were integrated with weights of 0.460, 0.112, 0.243, and 0.182, respectively, and vulnerability maps of the network were generated. Results showed that PGV values across the city range between 35 and 39 cm/s. In Feyzabad, lower PGV values combined with thick steel pipes and Quaternary alluvial soils resulted in 81% of the network falling into the low-vulnerability class and only 2.1% into the high-vulnerability class. Conversely, in Baharan, higher PGV values (39 cm/s), combined with small-diameter asbestos pipes and shale bedrock, placed 34% of the network in the very high-vulnerability class.                                },  
Keywords = {seismic resilience, peak ground velocity ((PGV)), water distribution network, analytical hierarchy process geographi information systems},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3495-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3495-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}

@article{ 
author = {Afshar, peyam and Piri, Eis},  
title = {Ecological Catastrophe in the Sultanieh Grassland: An Integrated Assessment of Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers Using Remote Sensing and Catastrophe Theory}, 
abstract ={Objective: “This study aims to investigate the drivers of ecological rupture in the Sultanieh Grassland, one of Iran’s most valuable natural ecosystems, which has experienced severe degradation over the past two decades. The research seeks to identify and prioritize the relative contributions of climatic, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors in triggering systemic instability and to assess whether the ecosystem has crossed a critical threshold toward irreversible collapse. Methods: An integrated analytical framework was employed, combining multi-source datasets from 2000 to 2021. Remote sensing indicators—including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Soil Moisture (SM)—were derived from MODIS and Landsat imagery. Hydroclimatic time series (temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration [PET], and groundwater levels) were analyzed alongside demographic statistics and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. A multi-criteria weighting approach, grounded in catastrophe theory, was applied to objectively quantify the relative influence of key drivers while minimizing subjective bias in decision-making. Results: The analysis reveals a 15% decline in effective precipitation, a 1°C increase in mean annual temperature, and a groundwater table drop exceeding 30 meters over the study period. These environmental stresses were compounded by a fourfold population growth and a doubling of per capita water consumption. Consequently, vegetation cover declined persistently, with NDVI decreasing from 0.2817 in 2004 to 0.1701 in 2021, while barren lands expanded significantly. Within the catastrophe theory framework, three primary drivers—groundwater depletion, vegetation loss, and population–water pressure—were identified as collectively responsible for 50% of the system’s destabilization. The evidence confirms a transition from a stable ecological state to a dissipative, degraded phase. Conclusions: The Sultanieh Grassland has likely crossed a critical ecological threshold due to the synergistic intensification of anthropogenic and climatic pressures within a geomorphologically and hydrologically vulnerable setting. Without immediate intervention—including sustainable groundwater management, strict control of urban expansion, and active restoration of hydrological equilibrium—the ecosystem faces irreversible transformation into an active source of dust emissions and desertification. This study underscores the urgency of science-based policy actions to prevent the total collapse of this irreplaceable natural and cultural heritage site.},  
Keywords = {Anthropocene, catastrophe theory, ecological rupture, land use change, Sultanieh Grassland},
volume = {12},
Number = {4}, 
pages = {0-0}, 
publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی},
url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3523-en.html},  
eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3523-en.docx},  
journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts},  
issn = {2423-7892}, 
eissn = {2588-5146}, 
year = {2025}  
}