@article{ author = {AliAkbari, Esmaeil and SaadatMiraii, Nafiseh}, title = {Streets Vulnerability in the Seismic Cities Based on IHWP Model In the 3rd District, Tabriz City}, abstract ={Urban planning has to perform seismic pathology of urban streets in seismic cities. Streets and roads are the most important spaces and urban elements in the cities which should be considered not only in space occupation and connecting spaces and urban activities but also in seismic vulnerability and on this basis it is planned to reduce environmental hazards and on top of earthquake-related. Many physical and functional characteristics of urban spaces and the distribution and concentration of the urban population take shape to comply with the location, capacity and function of the city streets network. Therefore, one of the most essential and the most important topics in the study of seismic cities is understanding of the relation between seismicity and urban streets through seismic vulnerability studies. This paper aims to assess factors and patterns of seismic vulnerability of urban networks with a prevention planning view in the 3rd district of Tabriz City.     This research has descriptive-analytic method and the statistical population is street network of 3rd district of Tabriz city. Data and layers of information have been prepared by documentary method and have been processed using the Delphi method and the method of ranking and rating IHWP in GIS. The main factors and indicators influencing streets vulnerability have been selected based on the eight indicators. These indicators include distance and proximity to faults, quality of buildings, the degree of closeness (width of the wall), building density, population density, the traffic service or traffic volume toward roads capacity, access to health centers and services and the land use system. The final map of seismic vulnerability has been produced by combining eight layers of information related to above mentioned indicatorsand based on it the seismic vulnerability levels and factors of the street network has been analyzed.     The final results of the seismic vulnerability of streets have been categorized in the 5 classes of vulnerability including very low, low, medium, high and very high. From total area 18.4% is estimated very low, 29.37% low, 31.77% medium, 14.21% high and 6.22% very high. Thus, taking into account the streets with medium, high and very high degree as vulnerable axes, it is concluded that 52.2% or more than half of the streets are seismic vulnerable and other half are relatively stable.     Within the vulnerable and unstable network, more than 20% of the streets are in high and very high vulnerable classes. Street network with high and very high vulnerability are mainly arterial streets with commercial and service land uses in the scale of trans-regional or secondary roads leading to artery of trans-regional which have high population density. These streets compose a high degree of closeness, increase in traffic service level, population density and land use system with the concentration of commercial, recreational and trans-regional land uses are the main causes of vulnerability. But, in the narrow streets (8 to 10 meters), the degree of closeness of arterial streets, traffic parameters and user system have increased the seismic vulnerability index. Spatial pattern of streets vulnerability has an increasing trend from East to West and from North to south. The results show Spatial intensity of vulnerable streets is located at the center of the district and on Vali Asr, Shariati, Aref  and Razi Streets. Thus, the efficient and sustainable streets are located in the East of the under studied district.     The results also show that high vulnerable streets has less distance to fault and more distance from medical centers. In addition, they have high traffic and lower quality buildings and high risk land uses (electric and gas infrastructure) are located there. Since the wide streets are more often subject to less obstruction, this characteristic in seismic time cause to transfer the traffic of narrow passage to the main streets. Grid pattern of streets and frequency of intersections by slowing down the speed of the vehicle increase the volume of traffic and lead to an increase in seismic vulnerability.}, Keywords = {3rd District of Tabriz city, IHWP Method, Road Network, Seismic Vulnerability.}, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {1-16}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2407-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2407-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {AsghariLafmejani, Sadegh and Naderianfar, Mahdi}, title = {Vulnerability of Rural settlements to Moving Sands Formed by Wind Erosion in the Dried bed of Hamoon International Wetland in Hirmand township}, abstract ={Every year, natural hazards happen severely around the world. Iran is included in the first 10 countries in the world susceptible to natural hazards, and has experienced 30 hazards out of total 35 hitherto. In this connection, moving sands, as a natural hazard, creates changes to ecological conditions which cause a rupture in the lives of people. The aforementioned hazards leave adverse effects on human habitations and impose wide environmental and socio-economic damages upon societies. Moreover, the sand mass covers arable lands and residential areas, generates air pollution, brings in destruction of topsoil, harms animals, and brings about many losses. This eases desertification and causes damages. Therefore, taking areas subject to moving sand into consideration is very significant in rural planning. Hirmand township in north of Sistan and Balouchestan province is an area open to moving sand onrush. Unfortunately, due to Sistan drought and Hamoon international wetland dryness as a result of the dominant120-day winds in the area, moving sands have come to affect rural settlements. This has put the villagers of Hirmand township to so much trouble. Hence, an investigation and analysis of rural settlements vulnerability to moving sand damages in the villages of Hirmand township is of great significance as a step toward better control of the problem.       The present study is a descriptive-analytic survey containing documentary sources, field studies, as well as village and household questionnaires.  The statistical population consists 303 villages in Hirmand township, from which a total of 56 were selected as the sample of the study based on advice given by experts at Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, rural administrators and local council members. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), statistical analyses, spatial analyses, and the software Expert Choice, SPSS, and ArcGIS were used in data analysis. This study, hence, attempts to identify vulnerable habitations and categorize them by employing 54 indexes and assessing and putting them together in different levels.       According to the findings of this study, from the total villages subject to moving sand problem, 55.35 % are found with low or very low vulnerability and 30.38 % are placed in high or very high vulnerability ranges. The investigation of distribution of the villages under study given the vulnerability intensity to moving sand storm revealed that the villages of low or very low vulnerability are situated in the central and western parts of the area under study. These villages enjoy low vulnerability due to water resources, Tamarix hispida trees planted by state-run entities in the moving sand paths, and being away from dry bed of Hamoun Wetlands. On the other hand, the villages of high and very high vulnerability are placed mostly in the northern part of the area under study and adjacent to Hamoun Wetlands.    There are several factors playing key roles in vulnerability of rural areas including environmental elements such as stopping of incoming water flow into Hamoun Wetlands, winds of 120 days, wide geomorphological functions of moving sands, and high reduction in the density of vegetation and trees around and in the villages due to drought. In addition to the above factors, inconsistency of physical context of villages with the movement direction of moving sands has caused accumulation of sands in villages which is effective in vulnerability intensification of many rural areas.     Ruin of houses and cut of communicative roads by moving sands cause disruption in normal lives within the aforementioned villages. In addition to taking damages by moving sands into consideration, the evident role of state services is very significant in decreasing of the damages in all parts of Hirmand. In this connection, belt-like flood preventives built around the international Hamoun Wetlands has made moving sands accumulated behind them and this has decreased intensification of the damages and probable threats from sand onrush to the lower latitude regions.         Accordingly, the results of affecting level comparison of different factors in appearance or intensification of the moving sand’s effects in the villages under study revealed that the effects of weather factors and water restrictions sprung from hydrological droughts in which the incoming flow of Hirmand River into the area under study is cut or decreased remarkably, along with summer winds (winds of 120-days) and severe winter winds are more clear and stronger in intensification of soil erosion and formation of moving sands than other factors.        On the other hand, the results of impressionability level comparison of different contextual-spatial factors in the villages under study demonstrated that sand affects arable lands and water supply networks more than other factors.      However, given that reduction or stop of incoming water flow of Hirmand River into Sistan region over the recent years has caused successive droughts, some factors like drying of Hamoun Wetlands, intensification of environmental dryness, reduction of vegetation and increase of soil erosion along with Sistan’s winds of 120-days have paved the way for increasing of dust storms and movement of sands toward the villages of the region.}, Keywords = {Hamoon wetland, Moving sands, Rural settlements, Hirmand Township}, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {17-30}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.17}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2408-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2408-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Rostamzadeh, Hashem and Asadi, Esmaeil and Jararzadeh, Jafar}, title = {Evaluation of the groundwater table using multi-criteria decision making and spatial analysis, case study: Ardebil Plain}, abstract ={Groundwater resources are important sources for the supply of water in agriculture, industry and drinking in Ardabil plain, therefore underground water resources planning and sustainable management of these resources are important. The purpose of this study is grading the villages in the plain of Ardabil in underground water crisis and changes during the years 1360-1391. The information obtained from 39 wells, piezometers in plain of Ardabil. Using simple techniques and fuzzy cumulative weighting and interpolation methods, the piezometers interpolation of shallow water table and how it changes during the period is showd. Introduction      Groundwater is one of the main sources of drinking water supply for many people around the world, especially in rural areas. Groundwater can be contaminated by natural or human activities are numerous. All activities including residential, municipal, commercial, industrial and agriculture can affect groundwater quality. Groundwater contamination can result, such as the loss of a source of water supply, high cost of clearing the high cost of alternative water supply or cause potential health problems. Given the importance of determining the results of the plains of the country, the aim of this study was to determine changes in aquifer storage of Ardabil using statistics and analysis on multi-criteria decision-making and evaluation of groundwater is a crisis situation. Data and Methods      In this study, the data of piezometers wells in of Ardabil plain scattered through the city of Ardabil Regional Water Authority have been prepared. Also, the surface layers and point to the plains of Ardabil, political divisions and the location of wells, piezometers villages for final maps have been used. The data of deep wells, as well as cultivation of four major product with a high water requirement of wheat, barley, potatoes and forage to determine the relationship between ground water and water harvesting has been a drop in water table. The study area      Plain study area is located in the north-west of Iran in Ardabil province (Figure 2 and Figure 3).  The average height is about 1360 meters above sea level  It covers an area of approximately 820 square kilometers and is located in the Gharasoo watershed. Inverse Distance Weight; Global Polynomial Interpolation; Local Polynomial Interpolation; Radial Basis Functions; Straight Ranking; Fuzzy Normalized; Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making; FSAW.    The first step is to evaluate each process and required hydrological data collection, and the coordinatingits location. The geostatistical methods of IDW, GPI, LPI, and RBF in the ArcGIS software were used for  interpolating all existing data and a drop in water table in the area of standards for grades 10 class (raster) within restricted fields of Ardebil were determined.     Finally, using simple collective weight, weight-bearing layers and layers of loss data water table for the years 60 and 90 is obtained. To get the final map of water table drops, the two layers are deducted and the final map of Ardabil plain water table drop that phase is obtained.      Analysis showed the reduction of water table almost 47 percent in 1391 compared to 1360. As can be seen in Figures 12 and 13, maximum of 45 meters water table wells, piezometers in 1360 to more than 70 m in 1390 has come to reveal the deterioration of the aquifer Ardabil.     Pholadloo_e_Shomali district with the highest concentration of deep wells in the near future to continue the removal of existing deep wells, groundwater resources will go into sharp decline.     Sharghi Village goes to the crisis and in the meantime, the central Vilkij district includes the eastern part of the plain, the drop in water table aquifer at greatest risk to the two villages in East and Central Vilkij. • Due to the limitations of traditional agricultural development potential ground water; • Increase the efficiency of irrigation, changing crop patterns of water needed to fill low-power consumption; • Efficient use of water resources and prevent unauthorized digging deep wells to exploit the nutritional front, especially in the East and Southeast plains.}, Keywords = {fuzzy multi-criteria decision, groundwater, water table, spatial analysis, Ardabil plain.}, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {31-42}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.31}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2409-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2409-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Bakhshizadeh, Farimah and Rezayan, Hani and Akbary, Mehry}, title = {3D Spatio-Temporal Modeling of NOx Air Pollution of Vehicular Traffic in Vali-e-Asr and Fatemi Streets Intersection, Tehran City}, abstract ={Air pollution has become one of the main problems of cities. Among the sources of air pollution, vehicular traffic plays an important role. Planning for efficient management and control of the air pollution caused by vehicular traffic requires accurate information on spatio-temporal dispersion of the pollutions. This research studies 3D spatio-temporal dispersion of NOx pollution caused by vehicular traffic at Valieasr-Fatemi intersection resides in Tehran, Iran. It is selected for being crowded and having the required meteorological and pollution data sensed by the Air Quality Control Corp. of Tehran Municipality. This study uses GRAL that is a local micro-scale air dispersion model defined based on Euleran-Lagrangian dispersion models. It investigates the level of spatio-temporal autocorrelation generated by GRAL simulations at both 2D and 3D modes and discusses how it adapts with the reality. Adopting the GRAL air pollution dispersion model, streets are defined as the linear source of pollution of NOx caused by vehicular traffic. The traffic rate is estimated based on street areas and directions, the designed average traffic velocity, traffic volume and car passage counting at the intersection. The 3D geometry of the buildings is also added to the model. All the required data that were available for winter of 2007 are gathered and introduced into the model. The model is executed at 9 heights vary from 1.7 m to 52.5 m. These heights are defined covering a range from an average human level height to average building height and above. These levels are considered both separately in 2D mode and integrated into a 3D mode. The formation of NOx clusters is investigated analyzing their autocorrelation using Moran Index at global and local scale. The calculated Moran-I at global scale at each 9 levels of heights, varies from 0.7 to 0.9 that depicts the validity of the GRAL model adopted to simulate the expected autocorrelation of pollution density affected by spatial issues. The Moran-I increases at higher levels as less air turbulence happens. However the result show that the turbulence increases temporarily at about 10m to 15m which are the average building heights. At local scale, the Moran-I/Anselin shows that HH clusters dominate at lower levels, around streets central areas that are farther from the buildings, and around the intersections. At higher levels, esp. higher than buildings average height, the LL clusters dominate. However the HH clusters formed around intersections, while are shrank, are still visible at high levels. The turbulence caused by building fronts and their down wash effect is also shown in the result as no definite cluster is formed near the buildings front and back. The autocorrelation analysis is also carried for an integrated 3D model consists of all the 9 levels of heights. Considering the weight matrix for a 20m 2D neighborhood and 1m/s dispersion of the pollution vertically, the global calculated Moran-I equals 0.229 which shows existence of a spatio-temporal autocorrelation of the results generated by GRAL. At local scale the results show that the HH clusters have higher temporal dispersion rate than LL clusters.}, Keywords = {GRAL Model, Vehicular Traffic, Nox Pollutant, Tehran City, Spatial Autocorrelation.}, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {43-62}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.43}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2410-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2410-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Sotodeh, Fatemeh and Alijani, Bohloul}, title = {The Relationship between Spatial Distribution of Heavy Precipitation and Pressure Patterns in Guilan Province}, abstract ={Precipitation is one of the important aspects of the Earth’s climate that has both spatial and temporal variations. Understanding the behavior of this element and analyzing its spatial and temporal variation is importantwhich can lead to a comprehensive and detailed planning for water resource management and agriculture. Geostatistical techniques and spatial autocorrelation analysis are the most widely used techniques in the field of the spatial continuity. Spatial autocorrelation analysis is applied to help researchers understand the spatial patterns in the area.       The purpose of this study is to identify the heavy precipitation spatial patterns in Guilan Province. For this purpose, the 6- hourly sea level pressure of the network from  0 to 120 Easter longitude and 0 to 80 Northern latitude with 2.5×2.5 degrees spatial resolution were obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for the period 1979-2010. The daily precipitation data of 21 stations were obtained from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization and Ministry of Energy.       Guilan province is one of the most humid regions in the country. The heavy rain days were selected as days when more than 30 percent of the all stations had daily rain amount more the 95th percentile. As a result, 321 days were selected as heavy and widespread rainy days. By using principal component analysis these 321 days were reduced to 9 factors. These factors then were subject to cluster analysis with Ward method and resulted in three surface pressure patterns of heavy rainy days. Within the resulted pressure patterns by using local geostatistical techniques we identified the heavy rain spots and their spatial orientation. These spatial methods include Kriging,  Geostatistical Analysis, and Anselin local Moran index. According to the results of this research, the first pattern was characterized with a high pressure over northern part of the Black Sea causing the highest Variance of heavy rainfalls. The second pattern is identified as a low pressure on the Black Sea. But the third pattern showed a precipitation distribution with low variation caused by the Siberian high-pressure. The results of Spatial Statistics techniques indicated that heavy rains were clustered in all there patterns. The clusters of heavy rains were localized mostly over the coastal areas and some over the central regions. The clusters of the western high-pressure patterns penetrated somewhat inside the province, while clusters of the Siberian high pressures was located on the shoreline of the province. The precipitation of western migratory high-pressures was heavier than of the Siberian high-pressure. The results of the standard deviation ellipse showed that heavy rain clusters were oriented in the east-west direction and were nonhomogeneous. While the ones oriented in the south east direction were more homogeneous and clustered. Because of this arrangement, the entry of moisture from the Caspian Sea is relatively concentrated on the East or North East. Because of the concentration of heavy rains in the central areas of the coast, the risks of floods and soil erosion is very high in these areas. This study showed that contrary to the popular belief, the heavy rains of Guilan were produced by western systems and the role of the Siberian high pressure is less important and is limited only to the coastline.}, Keywords = {Heavy Rain, Spatial Autocorrelation, Guillan Province, Local Moran, Kriging, Spatial Analysis of Precipitation, Standard Deviation Ellipse. }, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {63-73}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.63}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2412-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2412-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Lashgari, Hassan and pajoh, Farshad and Bitar, Mohammad and Jafari, Farzaneh}, title = {Synoptic Analysis of the Hazard of Spring Chilling waves in Western Azarbayejan Province (Case study: cold springs of 1382 and 1384)}, abstract ={The temperature as an indicator of heat intensity is one of the basic elements of knowing weather. The frost is a condition when the air temperature is less than 0 c Due to the geographical possition of Iran, spring is a season that plants resume a new life after leaving a pause in a periode of the growth. At the beginning of such a periode emerge of sudden cold cause loss bloom (in the case of openinig) or delay in a beginning of plant growth periode (Azizi,2002). Recentley with occuring climate chaos, one of the important climatic disasters which treats human and particularly different  areas of the country are cold waves and sever frosts that in some years covers large area of the country.     Surface data including minimum daily temperature of the days of 29 to 30 and 25 to 26 of march of 2003 and 2005 in 9 meteorological synoptic stations in the area of north west of Iran in  table (1) was collected  from meteorology organization then the days of cold waves in the above mentioned time periode, were analyzed. In ordet to analyse the synoptic patterns, using ncep/ncar data, maps of sea level pressure ,combined of  geopotential height and vorticity and temperature advection  using Grads were drawn and analysed in the levels of 1000 to 500 hpa.     As it mentioned, during the time period, 29 to 30 and 25 to 26 of the march in 2003 and 2005, 2 clod system  were located on the area of north west. In oeder to explain and analyze of  synoptic patterns of  mentioned period time, the absolute minimum temperature below 0 degrees celsius of stations in western Azarbayejan province were selected and maps of sea level pressure, combined of  geopotential height and vorticity and temperature advection  using Grads were drawed and analysed in the levels of 1000 to 500 HPA.      The results showed that in the time of occuring hazardous cold waves of  29 to 30 of march 2003 and 25 to 26 of march 2005 and analyzing the sea level map in the first day of cold wave with spreading the cold core high pressure  from the eastern Europe and its location on north and east north of the black sea and its pentration from north west corner of the country covered most of the areas of the country.     Analyzing the combined maps of geopotential height and vorticity in the levels of 1000 and 850 HPA in the first day of occurrence of  cold, generaly faced with huge anticyclonic development . But in the levels of 700 and 500 HPA , the under studied area was in the south trough of the obtained cold core of the low height locating in the cetral Asia. But on the day of cold peak, high pressure core was exactly located on the under the studied area . Also in the upper levels of atmosphere with locating the back of the trough cumulated  of cold air of upper width on the sea level high pressure centre while strengthening the lower levels anticyclonic flows, led to intensifying cold and frost in the west Azarbayejan province. Positive and negative vorticity maximum cells, also conformed the intensity cold circulation flows on the north half of the country in anticyclone and cyclone centers in order. Also analysing the temperature advection in the levels of 1000 to 500 HPA, direction and temperature intensity exactly followed geopotential height maps patterns.      Such that in the levels of 1000 hpA of the both cold wave analysed, the anticyclonic cold temperature adcection and northward is located on the north west of the Iran. In temperature advection maps of 29 and 30 march 2003 in 850 HPA in Azarbayejan province, the anticyclonic circulation is matches with sea level high pressure. But in the 2nd cold wave that’s occured on 25 and 26 march 2005, the north west area is between 2 antycyclonic circulation on Mediterranean and cyclon located on south of  Russia that the directions of temperature cold flows is completely north ward in this level.     In the temperature advection maps of 700 and 500 HPA, the Azarbayejan province is in the western edge of central Asia trough or south of Russia.     The results showed that with studying  atmospheric motions and synoptic systems which create cold flows, we can prevent of spring late  emergence cold wave destructive impact on agricultural products, energy consumption, and road accidentd by  forcasting of these atmospheric conditions.}, Keywords = {Cold waves, Synoptic analysis, Frost, Cold air advection, western Azarbayejan province.}, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {75-91}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.75}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2413-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2413-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Zanganeh, Ahmad and Talkhabi, Hamidreza and Gazerani, Feredon and YosefiFeshangi, Mohse}, title = {Spatial Extent of Urban Poverty in Arak City}, abstract ={The extent of poverty, inequality and environmental differences patterns in large metropolises are the results of a dual economy with free market capitalism rule in these cities. Urban spatial structure expansion and incoherent, irrational focus on different parts of the city and its facilities and services, economic development, social inequality in them. Urban environments, complex systems with complex phenomena, relations and interactions between the components are different. Cities in the twenty-first century are undoubtedly one of the great challenges which are facing to them is their poverty focus. The physical differences reflect the existing inequalities in societies based on market economy. Undoubtedly, the developments in the past few decades have a large share in these settlements in the metropolises of the country. . Although the extent of urban poverty phenomenon is not new in urban planning literature, referred in ancient societies, such settlements are massive and complex phenomenon, which is entering its second phase of capitalism, the capitalist industrial and disturb Aboriginal settlement system is embodied in the geographic ranges. This astonishing growth in the South with the growth of the tertiary sector of the economy on the one hand and on the other hand, the recovery of the agricultural sector in rural areas occurred. Geographers look at the formation of the spatial extent of poverty regarding both humans and nature.      Poverty is caused by humans in the absence of proper mechanisms in human society develops. Arak urban space reflects the socio-economic imbalances and the spatial extent of poverty in the Border areas of the city.      This research aimed to identify and Rank urban poverty in the Arak city. According to recognition type of this problem, descriptive – analytical  methods are used in this research. The multiple components of economic, social and physical are studied.  ArcGIS is used to determine the Density factor () and the distribution of each indicator. Then, according to the purpose of the study, stratification between the known areas (including: the city center, 20-meter-Mighan, Davaran and Koshtargah, Roodaki and Bagh Khalaj, Footabal, Shahrake valiasr and Qanate Naseri) And the quantitative model and  AHP  & ELECTRE Regionalization are used. In this way ranking options instead of a new concept called "non-non Ranking” used. Multi-criteria problems to deal with a set of options, indices and values ​​expressed preference. In this way all options non-ordinal comparisons were evaluated using non-effective options and be removed from list. The results of this paper showed two spatial extent of urban poverty and Regionalization of the settlements with the use of multiple components classified. The results showed that due to the combination of multiple indicators of social, economic and physical, seven main ranges were identified that except for the central part, all extents located in the Border areas. According to the results, the central district (first), 20-meter-Mighan Street and Rudaki and Bagh Khalaj neighborhoods (second), Football neighborhood and Vali-e-Asr (third) and neighborhood of  Qanat-Naseri (fourth). Review the history of the formation and spatial differences in this field indicates the fact that different mechanisms are involved in creating them. These ranges are more vulnerable to poverty and poor economic conditions in the exodus of migrants entering and after industrialization city. It can be said that in order to identify the extent of poverty, systemic view of the external and internal mechanisms in terms of time - place is essential.}, Keywords = {Identification and Ranking, spatial extent, Urban poverty, Arak city.}, volume = {2}, Number = {1}, pages = {93-107}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.1.93}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2414-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2414-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {GhahroudiTali, Manijeh and Derafshi, Khabat}, title = {The study of chaos in the flood risk pattern of Tehran}, abstract ={Flood as a natural disaster follows certain erratic patterns which was made confounding factor. Flood risk is variable and complex that depends on very phenomena such as rainfall, runoff concentration and high exposure of the flooding downstream areas.     This are changes over time and from regions due to natural conditions, human activities, and damage culture of the community at risk. Occurrence of chaos at flood risk changes the trend of predictable processes. In the other words, although flood is a disaster, the occurred irregularities in its patterns can reveal its complicated nature. Flood pattern irregularities are the incident evidence of chaos in the system which can be studied by fractal geometry. The occurred events in spatial variability of floods in the last 50 years show they can be occur as unusual urban flood in Tehran.     Tehran city may experiences the difference life and property damages because the high varieties in the socio-economic and the life quality level in regions, also structural varieties in the city fabric??. Ignoring the natural factors in spatial planning, overrun and destruction of natural morphology as a result of urban activities and subsequently disturbing urban drainage system lead to unpredictable and destructive floods in Tehran.     The Tehran precipitation layer was prepared based on 27 weather stations data in the period of 10 years (1998-2009) and Kriging model with a Gaussian function. The runoff is calculated by Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) and precipitation layer. The flood hazard potential map has been created by 8 variables and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This map as an index to define the said complexity was prepared in 5 categories of risk by combination of Tehran metropolis flood hazard and vulnerability maps. Then it was divided into hydrological basins and 12 basins were selected randomly. The Perimeter-Area Fractal and Number-Area Model were used to study the chaos and turbulence in the Tehran’s flood pattern.      Explanation of locational changes of risk between the basins needs to calculate the weighted average risk and the independent variables in 12 basins that obtained by zonal statistics. Based on these average values the factor analysis used to determine the Varifactors or main components of the variability in flood risk between the basins. Finally, fractal geometry models (perimeter-area and cumulative number-area) were used to demonstrate the chaos of the flood risk value in 5 categories of risk.     In this research the Tehran flood zoning map was calculated at 5 hazard categories. The fractal of sample basins had increased by increasing in the level of hazard map. Generally, the higher DAP values from 1 represented increasing in the chaos or irregularities of Tehran floodhazard. The obtained DAP from very low to very high risk levels are 1.206, 1.216, 1.23, 1.263 and 1.293 respectively. The increasing of DA indicated that turbulence hazard increases based on Perimeter-Area fractal model, thus, with the increase in hazard the DAP and DP values were greater. Also, the results of Number-Area Model showed turbulence floods in the five classes of hazard. The area cumulative number of risk levels are 0.74, 0.79, 0.85, 0.86 and 0.88 respectively; this trend showed the less size of flood risk polygons from very low to very high risk levels. In the other words, by increasing the risk level the polygons gets smaller and indicates the increase the flood risk chaos.     The occurrence pattern of natural phenomena and even natural hazards have a regularity type in normally condition; if this regularity disrupts for any reason, irregularities or chaos happens. In present study, the results of fractal analysis in sample basins presented the chaos pattern in Tehran floods. Also the heavy rainfall can be predicted in Tehran but the prediction of the flooding distribution was not provided. According to the recorded floods in Tehran the flooding begins always in the northern valleys of Tehran, like Darband, Kan or Golabdareh basins,  are not similar to damage pattern. As a result, despite several studies and projects which have been implemented about flood phenomenon in Tehran, this is unpredictable and uncontrollable in the city.}, Keywords = {Fractal Model, Number-Area Model, Chaos, flood, Tehran.}, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {1-16}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2419-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2419-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Pourmousavi,, Seiied Mousa and Eghbal, Mohammadreza and Khoshkhan, Jalal}, title = {Evaluation of implementation disaster management indicators in the detailed plan (Case study: 20th municipal district of Tehran)}, abstract ={Nowadays, the adaptation of urban crisis management with  urban development plans is considered as an efficient way of cutting back on damages and it is essential to predict economic and physical susceptibility of families and communities. Therefore, considering the urban crisis index can play a significant role in urban planning. Tehran city thanks to geographic location, climate conditions and geological conditions is among risky cities so that the presence of seismic faults has made this city potentially seismic and in need of comprehensive crisis management; it needs to be confirmed that despite the earthquake potential in the region and the quality of the buildings especially in old and organic texture and other parameters such as access network and buildings and skeletal disorder the occurrence of a large scale earthquake and other natural disasters would be very catastrophic. For this purpose and given the high susceptibility of the region such as the impression by the North and South Rey fault, hazardous industries and fundamental establishments on the one hand and the presence of worn-out texture on the other hand were the reasons behind choosing this region to do the research.      This research is descriptive-analytic in terms of data collection and practical concerning the function. The location of study is 20th municipal district of Tehran. The area is about 23 square kilometer and by including the range  about 200 square kilometers. The research population consists of 500 experts and administrators engaged in preparation and practice of detailed municipal plan of Tehran city and crisis management organization of Tehran city. The research mass was selected at 217 persons by the use of Cochran’s formula. The sampling method was random classification method. Data collection instrument was the use of author-prepared questionnaire which consisted of four parts. Measurement instrument validity by facial method and its reliability was examined using  Chronbach Alpha. Therefore, after providing the required acceptable reliability among 20 persons of the subjects the personal attendance method of distribution was applied.      The research findings show that among research variables, locating crisis management uses within detailed plans received more attention (Mean:82/36) and the knowledge of crisis management within detailed plan management process received less attention (Mean: 24/08). Also the study of distribution indices using  standard error deviation and variance reveals that the type of responses to the variable of attention to risky use policies (standard deviation: 4/08) has low distribution and attention to crisis management uses (8/49) has high distribution. For ranking variable conditions Freedman test was implemented. The results obtained from this test showed that the variable of attention to crisis management uses with the mean of 3/81 ranked first and attention to crisis management knowledge within detailed management process with the rank mean of 1/00 stands fourth on the list. The obtained results from the Pearson test also show that among all variables there is a significant relation with a confidence level of 99% and the correlation among them was  positive. Also the highest correlation coefficient was attention to the crisis management uses and attention to crisis management knowledge at the rate of 0/898 and the least correlation is about the relation between the variable of attention to knowledge of crisis management and the reflection of crisis management indexes on detailed project plans at the rate of 0/423.      Considering the obtained results can conclude  that crisis management indexes through the process of preparation, approval and the administration of detailed projects of Tehran city and 20th municipal district have not been attended sufficiently. For instance, skeletal features determination and operational properties at each urban scale were given the rate of susceptibility and the natural place limitations to enhance escape possibilities and people refuge (apposite building type, low building density, use of paths as the getaway and refuge spaces etc.) have not been estimated and their impacts have not been included in development plans.      Also neighborhood was expected to be observed in urban lands use determination and avoid incongruous uses next to each other and provide quick exit but such cases have not been attended in detailed Tehran city project and 20th municipal district or that the intended issues have been briefly listed and practically had no use in administration stage. In fact, the bad condition of the skeletal elements location and inapposite uses of the urban lands, deficient urban network, compact urban texture high urban density, improper location of fundamental establishments and shortage and improper distribution of urban open spaces etc. which have critical role in boosting up the rate of inflicted damages to Tehran city against crisis on the basis of the experts’ vantage point has received insufficient attention and while discussing the issue there is no coordination among related organizations concerning a serious attention to such indexes.}, Keywords = {spatial, crisis management, natural and human hazard, detailed design, region 20.}, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {17-31}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.17}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2420-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2420-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Falsolyman, Mahmud and Hajipour, Moham}, title = {The Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Anthropogenic Hazards Management of Mines in Iran}, abstract ={The appearance of Hazards in human life is affected by natural and human forces. So far, human beings were the most powerful stimulant to create these hazards and to intensify them. The negative role of human beings in environment is caused by factors like lack of knowledge, weak reaction, technology lack, aggressive ideologies and competition; in social system, however, human behavioral engineering especially in dealing with nature is totally affected by management system. One of the common human behaviors which place in economic system framework is extraction and exploitation of Mines that has many consequences for ecosystem. In fact, Mines are the result of human beings reactions in dealing with nature which their activity ranges are increasing. According to micro-scale to macro-scale in economics, economic life of a country like Iran is based on its huge natural/mineral recourses.      On the other hand, environmental consequences of exploiting Mines in this country are numerous and varied. In this study, we tried to present a spatial-temporal analysis and explanation about environmental hazards phenomena in the case of exploiting Mines of the country caused by human beings with the title of "anthropogenic hazards in Mines” that is totally a result of its respective management system. In terms of its objectives, this study is a practical research and it is a descriptive-analytic one. For data collecting, we reviewed the existing literature and surveyed the data base in Statistical Center of Iran. These data are extracted from 2009 census and 2013 census (because of limited statistical domain) which belong to all the provinces of the country. To perform the analysis, these data are collected based on 5 indices and 16 sub-indices and after completing data base, percentage distribution graphs for Mines  and environmental activities in the provinces (in 5 total framework) has been drawn by using GEO DaTM software. Following that, by using a multi-criteria decision making method (COPPARS) all the regions are ranked according to the level of their environmental hazards in exploiting Mines. Finally, to illustrate the spatial pattern and method of hazards in Mines in the country on the studied period of time, based on COPRAS method, the calculated standard deviation ellipse was drawn in GIS which is according to 2009 and 2013 data.       Studying the increasing number of Mines  which are exploiting in the provinces of the country during 2009-2013 confirm that most of the provinces had experienced a positive growth during this period of time and among these areas Ardabil, Alborz, Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Kurdestan, Qazvin, Fars, Luristan and Hamadan provinces had experienced a negative growth and we can mention to other economic activities reinforcement as the reason of this negative growth such as services in Mines  section rather than activities in this section, spatial location and the influence of border line or ignorance of planning system. On the whole we can conclude that in economic system of the country, there is a constant attention to Mines and expansion of their exploitation in the area.      According to the findings of this study, we can conclude that in spite of the existence of Mines  which are extracting in all around the country and the expansion of exploitation of these resources in these regions, required attention and consideration is not paid to decrease or modify destructive effects on environment in the case of Mines  which are operating in the country, on the contrary indices such as investment and increasing the value of investment had decreased, and by considering the inflation in country, it can be said that economic attention to Mines  management in the country to reinforce the basis of environmental compatible Mines  is insignificant and declining. So it is not out of question that exploitation of these Mines in this country is an effective and intensifying factor to create and intensify other human-made and natural hazards.      In regional point of view, management activities which modify negative and destructive effects of exploiting this country's Mines  (maybe in a small scale) are done by ignorance to regions that have predetermined hazards and it seems that other factors are used to conduct and strategize the environmental compatible management engineering in exploiting of the country's Mines  not the systematic management factors; for example, according to Iran's Environmental Protection Organization (EPO) statement, Isfahan, Fars Yazd, Khuzestan, Bushehr and Hormozgan provinces are dealing with the highest level of environmental hazards (IRNA, 2015), while these provinces have the most hazardous Mines  and they are located in the limited area of anthropogenic hazards of Mines  or they are close to regions that have maximum Mines ' hazards. In industrial provinces as Isfahan which are dealing with water scarcity and environmental pollution too, "anthropogenic hazards of exploiting Mines  which are the result of management" could create hazards like different kinds of water and air pollutions and they also enforce spatial environmental hazards.     Finally, according to spatial-locational movements or changes of place, related to anthropogenic hazards of exploiting Mines in Iran, it can be said that the dominant approach on economic system of region which is related to Mines is proceeding fast to important population centers of the country and similar problematic ecosystems which may cause the appearance of hazardous crisis in some parts of the country.}, Keywords = {Environment, Human-made Hazards, Anthropogenic, Hazards Motion, Mines}, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {33-51}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.33}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2421-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2421-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Karam, Amir and safari, Amir and HajehforoshNia, Shila.}, title = {Analysis of flood and fluvial processes in the occurrence of environmental hazards (Case Study: Arange Basin, Karaj River)}, abstract ={With the development of economy and social services, increased need to reduce risks, control risks and other important measures in order to provide program management and follow-up plans vulnerability, Having the right information and understanding the current situation in the field is essential for  prevention and planning measures, Therefore, research on risk reduction and knowledge of threats in the Arangeh region is essential, as one of the areas tourist attraction regions in Karaj's catchment area. Geomorphology of River studies landforms and processes of river and predict changes using models and field studies and laboratory. And new analytical tools and techniques, growing and expanding with the help of river engineering.     This eventually leads to gain new capabilities in the field of river management, landscape restoration, risks and geomorphological studies ancient river.      In most cases geomorphological processes that are created by river systems, are causing environmental hazards of natural and human environments. In this paper, we have investigated the risks of geomorphic processes, especially risks of flooding and river flooding and is calculated for the maximum flood discharge for subarea also. In this article, it has been found that most of the flood will be calculated based on the map of the geomorphology of the area and the discharge sub basin. The purpose of this study, is  assessing damages caused by the flood risks in the area. It is obvious that the results of this study will enable the pre-crisis phase of the crisis management system and can help to tourism and physical planning in the area.      Arangeh basin is an area of 10,090 hectares and a maximum height of 3665, at least 1637 m and average height of 2689 m. Arangeh area have an  annual precipitation about 785 mm. Arangeh watershed is located within the northern city of Karaj, 15 km Karaj Branch, Karaj Dam east side of the river and inferiors (Amir Kabir).      In this study, to analyze the flood in the basin,  a variety of sources are used including surveys of library data and documents, topographic base map scale of 1: 25,000 geological map of 1: 100000 taken from the ground geological, climatic data obtained from meteorological Organization, hydrological data obtained from regional water Alborz Landsat satellite image.Also field visits, the use of GPS and GIS software Arc GIS Version 10 was main parts of the survey.       The calculated concentration time by Krpych method to estimate the flood of data base, then estimate is based on a regional analysis of runoff and peak discharge of flood.      According to Hydrogeomorphic properties basin unit (sub-21) has the maximum flood discharge which is mostly covered by alluvium and located on the ground impermeable siltstone, waterways due to morphological features steep, mountainous dominant morphology, concentration time low basin, poverty and lack of vegetation (about 15 and 50 cubic meters per second in the 50 and 100-year return period). Other sub-basin with high flood discharge of sub No. 3, 5,7,9,12,14 and 16 are in Central, East, North, East and South of the basin villages.       Many parts of the Arangeh basin has slopes of more than 60%, which is an important factor in the effect of runoff, reducing the time of concentration, poor soil and vegetation and is an important factor aggravating flood risk and erosion. The presence of vegetation in these areas can have an important effect in obstructing runoff, reduce the rate of runoff, reducing flooding and consequently the reduction of soil erosion. We can largely control the flood basin watershed management practices and proper management range in the above units.}, Keywords = {Flood, risks, river processes,karaj, Arange. }, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {53-68}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.53}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2422-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2422-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Ahmadi, Mahmoud and Lashkari, Hassan and Azimi, Parasto}, title = {The impact of daily Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) on the hydrological hazards of the south west region of Caspian Sea}, abstract ={Understanding the climate of a region as a first step and most immediate action is considered research for development projects Climatic phenomena such as floods every year irreparable damage to the soil, pastures, forests, urban and rural facilities, human and animal import Climatic phenomena such as floods every year irreparable damage to the soil, pastures, forests, urban and rural facilities, human and animal import. The first factor in causing flood is rainfall intensity that occurs at a certain time. Therefore necessary infrastructure projects, and one of the main issues in hydrological and hydro-climate is awareness of the occurrence and amount of rainfall, most likely for different periods.      In order to implement the model of Synoptic convergent in this research and estimated probable maximum precipitation in the South West region of the Caspian    1: The 1:50,000-scale Digital Mapping the location of all stations in the study area, Climatology, rainfall and hydrometric surveys in selected were identified on the map.    2: The maximum instantaneous discharge rate of the highest daily rainfall stations selected surveys (1976-2011) are also studied.    3: collection of the highest daily rainfall statistics selected stations, monthly and annual precipitation data for the period (1986-200),Facts about the daily atmospheric phenomena (cloud, wind speed, dew point temperature, air pressure) with an interval of 3 hours to 3 hours, Statistics continuing 12-hour maximum dew point of the surface (in degrees Celsius) and wind speed times (NAT) for the stations of Anzali, Rasht, Astara, Ramsar, Ardabil, Pars Abad For the first 10-day period, 10-day and 10-day return period for calculating the 50-year-old third, 80-year and 100-year and monthly statistics on the average pressure of the selected stations establishment station.    4: Select the desired storm rainfall in 24 hours and 48 hours to obtain a return period of 50 years, 80-year and 100-year 12-hour maximum dew point and wind speed persistence for long periods, the separation of each month, and the resolution of each decade, through software SMADA and HYFA.    5: Purvay of Rain maps and DAD chart is also the main stages of this work.    6: Finally, weather maps, humidity maps and omega air maps at ground level, 700 level and 850 hp prepared from     Days prior to completion until the day of rain showers in the stormy period from the NCEP / NCAR site and was ready in GRADS software environment.      In order to realize the adiabatic saturation warmest period of the most intense storms in 1355-1390The maximum instantaneous rate of discharge and daily rainfall statistics, the most comprehensive and stations on their occurrence in the previous chapter, was studied.So the four pervasive  hurricane was  selected. Then, rain storms map were plotted in the GIS software environment and use of IDW method and Using data from the windy days selected on rainfall stations in the study area. In order to obtain the rainfall in the whole region,were regressed  between the two parameters: precipitation and elevation; and was estimated average of rainfall in the cumulative area and rainfall amount in during of the storm days. Based on the height - area tables of ​​each storm separately, DAD curves was drawn based on average rainfall in columns cumulative and cumulative area. Then we reviewed and interpreted weather maps at ground level, elevation Maps, humidity maps and omega maps at 850 hPa level. Survey maps showed Tongue of immigrant anticyclons in North West Europe that usually is deployed on the Black Sea will advection cold air from the above widths on the Caspian sea and is transmited very wet weather to the south and West south Caspian Sea. After analyzing weather maps, the next step is obtain  to water for showers.To calculate the rain water the best way is getting the hottest adiabatic saturation that occurs with the maximize the dew point temperature and wind speed. After obtaining the maximum dew point and wind speed factor, we would like to calculate the coeffcient storm. After obtaining the coefficients of the storm,obtained its P.M.P by multiplying the amount of rainfall for each storm.      According to the obtained PMP,was adopted rainfall continued for 24 hours with the numbers 276/95. PMP obtained showed that the storm dated 2/10/2001 of 24-hour duration, has been most intense and pervasive from the two other samples.}, Keywords = {PMP, Storm, South West Caspian, synoptic method}, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {69-83}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.69}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2423-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2423-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Ahmadabadi, Ali and Seif, Abdolah and Khosravi, Somaye and fathnia, Amanalah}, title = {Vulnerability Assessment of desertification hazard using Extended Vikor E-VIKOR in the Mond watershed}, abstract ={Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas, leads to  desertification and land degradation is a concept that refers to any reduction of soil potentials. In Iran, that 85 percent of its area is classified in arid and semi-arid climates, and  one percent per annum growth rate of desertification and its increasing trends, finding ways to evaluate this phenomenon and its causes in the form of models seems essential. In Iran, especially southern areas due to their arid climatic conditions, are considered to be areas prone to desertification. This study aims to evaluate and analyze the vulnerability of desertification in the Mond watershed located in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf.      In order to evaluate the potentials of desertification in the Mond watershed, geological, the erosion (water erosion potential), rainfall, slope, elevation levels and land use maps are used.  To identify vegetation cover conditions Landsat ETM + sensor data and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) are used.      Where in reflected in the near-infrared band (Band 4, Landsat ETM+) and the reflection in the visible band (band 3 sensor ETM+) respectively. Overlaps and combines the above criteria is done using E-VIKOR (VIKOR developed) a method of multi-criteria decision-making models (MCDM). This method is based on a compromise plan proposed in the compromise solution is justified determines solutions that are as close to the ideal solution and has been created through special credit decision-makers. VIKOR use linear approach normal. The normal value in VIKOR  is not related method unit of measure. Also standardization effective indicators of desertification has been done using a linear scale.       In this study, the ANP method (Analytical Network Process) was used for weighting criteria. Analysis method Network, is one of the popular methods of multi-criteria decision problems. This method complex relationship between and among the elements of the decision by replacing hierarchical network structure considers. Table 1 shows the weights of the effective criteria in desertification. In this study 7 criteria are used that results show criteria’s of climate and vegetation, have the most effective measures in the area of desertification and erosion (water and wind) have the least amount of importance in the region. Table 1: weight criteria of effectivein desertification criteria vegetation erosion Precipitation Landuse Geology Slope Elevation levels weight(W) 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.08     After mapping the effective indicators in evaluating desertification separately, Standardization of maps, weighting the index, To obtain amount and   , Finally, the amount of , was produced Zoning map of desertification that in it Mond watershed in the province Bushehr in terms of desertification is divided into five ratio and the area is provided in Table 2. Table 1: Percentage and  area zone of desertification amount vulnerabilities Area (ha) Area (in percent) Very low 516300 11 low 598900 13 Average 1438025 30 High 2168675 46 Very High 40825 1     Studies show that more than half of the Mond basin have on the surface with average risk of desertification and In the continuation of the current trend of soil degradation, desertification prone zones and will be reduced all lead to the deterioration of the natural ecosystems and human life quality.}, Keywords = {Desertification Hazard, Vikor Method, NDVI, Mond Basin.}, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {85-97}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.85}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2424-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2424-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Nazaripooya, Hadi and Kardavani, Parviz and Farajirad, Abdoraze}, title = {Calibration and Evaluation of Hydrological Models, IHACRES and SWAT Models in Runoff Simulation}, abstract ={The runoff simulation have  particular importance in Civil works, river training, design and planning of ground water resources, flood control and prevention of environmental hazards and reduction of erosion and sedimentation in the watershed. The runoff in each region varies according to climatic conditions, hydrological, soil and vegetation in the basin. Simulate these processes need to provide the necessary information on the spatial variation of these factors.  In this context, given the diversity of hydrological models, to achieve the most appropriate simulation of hydrologic models and choose the appropriate model requires the evaluation of their performance in each area is commensurate with hydrological conditions. So hydrologicl models, need to recognize the capabilities and limitations of basins.  In this study, the performance of the two models of rainfall – runoff including IHACRES and SWAT models was compared and evaluated in runoff simulation for two watersheds Yalfan and Sulan in Hamedan province in West of Iran .        The SWAT model uses various information, including;  hydrometry, climate , soil , topography, vegetation and land use . SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) is a river basin scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds. SWAT model is a hydrology model with the following components: weather, surface runoff, return flow, percolation, evapotranspiration, transmission losses, pond and reservoir storage, crop growth and irrigation, groundwater flow, reach routing, nutrient and pesticide loading. SWAT model uses a two-level disaggregation scheme; a preliminary sub-basin identification is carried out based on topographic criteria, followed by further discretization using land use and soil type considerations. Areas with the same soil type and land use form a Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU), a basic computational unit assumed to be homogeneous in hydrologic response to land cover change.      IHACRES model is a catchment-scale rainfall – stream flow modeling methodology whose purpose is to characterize the dynamic relationship between rainfall and stream flow, using rainfall and temperature (or potential evaporation) data, and to predict stream flow. The model can be applied over a range of spatial and temporal scales - from small experimental catchments to basins; using minute, daily or monthly time steps. It can be used to fill gaps in data, extend stream flow records, as well as explore the impact of climate change and identify effects of land use changes.     Data used in this study includes temperature, precipitation and runoff in the period of 2010-1983. Rainfall and temperature data were used from weather stations and runoff gauging stations from basin Sulan  and Yalfan hydrometry stations. In this study we select two periods, first period from 1983 to1999 for calibration and the second period from 1999 to 2009 for validation. Some of the required basic information such as soil, vegetation, topography and land-use maps were used to carry out the research were received from the Research Center of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Hamedan province.      Accordingly, after collecting basic data and analysis of the sensitivity parameters, then calibrate and validate the models. To determine the ability of models Nash Sutcliffe (NS) and determination coefficient ( R2) were evaluated .     The results showed that both models are acceptable in simulating runoff in both basins. According to the results obtained in the simulation by SWAT model in both basins, Nash Sutcliffe on a monthly scale in the Yalfan basin for calibration period is 0.68 and verification period is 0. 74 and for Sulan basin calibration period is 0.69 and verification period 0.76.     The flow rate during validation periods have high accuracy. In the Yalfan basin observed daily flow 1.17 cubic meters per second and simulated flow is 1.10 cubic meters per second. As well as an overview of the values of the coefficient of determination can be seen in both basins, amount represents the high precision simulation in monthly and daily scales. Based on the results obtained in the two basins, IHACRES model has been good performance on a monthly scale, so that the Nash Sutcliffe in the Yalfan basin for calibration period 0.68 and for verification periodic 0.72 in the Sulan basin for calibration period 0.64 and for verification periodic 0. 65. In general, both models can be seen by comparing the SWAT model was calibrated and validated with the highest Nash Sutcliffe on the monthly and daily scales. Generally it can be concluded that to simulate the daily and monthly runoff, the SWAT model is recommended for evaluation hydrology process in the Yalfan and Sulan basins. It is essential in most similar studies to determine of rainfall-runoff models with respect to variability of rainfall-runoff models in different climate periods of dry and wet years.}, Keywords = {Hydrological Models, IHACRES Model, SWAT Model, runoff simulation.}, volume = {2}, Number = {2}, pages = {99-112}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.2.99}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2425-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2425-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Alijani, Bohloul}, title = {Spatial Analysis in Geography Studies}, abstract ={Spatial analysis as the main approach of geography was reviewed and searched through its historical development. The results of this exploratory research showed that this approach was born after the Second World War due to the overall interest of geographers to develop universal theories and laws. The advocators of this field believed that the old regional geography was not able to develop a scientific and applied knowledge. The main motivation of the development of the spatial analysis was the quantitative revolution of the 1960’s which was triggered by the article published by Shaeffer in 1953. This was followed by some prominent geographers such as Bungeh, Ulman, Barry, Hagget, Chorley and others. Bungeh and Harvey strengthened the philosophical foundation of spatial analysis and others such as Hagget , Chorley and Hajestrand published important books in the field of quantitative geography. The main objective of spatial analysis is to analyze the distributions through the identification of their global and local structures and reasoning these structures by their spatial relationship with other distributions. In this regard it uses quantitative data and mathematical language to achieve the spatial theories and laws.      The spatial analysis studies the spatial distributions and structures. These are the entities that are not subject to the human interpretation and thinking. This approach is true in the both physical and human geography. The knowledge it tries to achieve is the theories and laws about the spatial distributions. The methodology of spatial analysis is the quantitative methods such as experiment and survey. Thus in terms of ontology the entities of spatial analysis are independent of human mind and objective. The spatial characteristics of distributions are not constructed but discovered. The methodology used in spatial analysis is quantitative and objective including some methods such as experiment and survey. In 1980 and onward, human geography tried to move toward qualitative methods such hermeneutics but during 21st century all branches of geography are using quantitative methods more frequently than qualitative ones; but the use of the combined version of quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming more frequent day by day.   The introduction of Geographic Information System as the operational environment for spatial analysis works the approach has become more widespread and dominant. Geographers are now able to analyze more spatial data and discover more spatial theories to solve the spatial problems. GIS is the main tool for spatial analysis and by introducing the science of geostatistics has improved the scientific and applied power of spatial analysis. The application of quantitative geography including geostatistics and GIS requires improved knowledge of mathematics, geometry and statistics; the main language of today geography. The spatial analysis covers the important topics of geography including spatial distributions, regions, spatial relations especially the relation between human and environment, spatial structures, spatial reasoning, interpolation, and the most important topic of spatial planning. The spatial analysis is the only scientific field to define and develop spatial planning. With correct and logic spatial planning there won’t be any environmental hazards. Because in any region all human settlements and activities are planned according the potentials of the region.}, Keywords = {spatial analysis, Geographic information system, geostatistics, quantitative geography, space, spatial relations, spatial structures.}, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {1-14}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2489-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2489-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {saligheh, moham}, title = {Climate Change and Climate Hazards in Tehran}, abstract ={Tehran, in the south of Alborz Mountains, is faced with three types of weather risk, weather risk caused by geography, climatic risks caused by air resistance and weather risk due to global warming. The aim of this study is to examine the three types of risk in Tehran. The method of this study was to evaluate the changes of synoptic factors that affect global warming and urban development. In order to detect the height changes of 500 hPa two 5-year periods including 1948 to 1952 and 2010 to 2014, were studied.      The results showed that changes in heights of 500 geopotential, there was an increased risk in the city of Tehran. The effect of climate change in recent decades,  increased the stability of  air in Tehran. Human factors in the formation of heat islands, increase LCL height and density of the air balance is transferred to a higher altitude. Changing urban wind field, atmospheric turbulence intensified, exacerbated thermodynamic gradient, fat and refugee cyclones, heat island effect of the city. Thermal stability in the warm period will appear. The thermal stability of all levels of lower, middle and upper troposphere was intensified. Thermal stability couraged the  development of subtropical high pressure in the area. With the arrival of the atmospheric pressure during calm and humid days the stability and pollution were increased. Negative vorticity from early June  developed the intensive high pressure over the region. Compare the conditions of the two study periods  showed that  : the height of the high pressure was 100 meters higher than the second period. The number of days of intensified subtropical high increased during the second period.  The high pressure has moved to the northern areas during the second period. This change in the subtropical high pressure increased the dry periods motivating the loss of vegetation. Heat island effect was increased as well. More than 90% of the  temperature inversions occurred  at an altitude of less than 500 meters in both warm and cold periods of year. Wind direction at both stations has shown that the establishment of any pollutant source in the West of Tehran will increase the pollution.}, Keywords = {climate hazards, climate change, Tehran, urban air pollution}, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {15-32}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.15}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2490-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2490-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Sadidi, Javad and Ahmadi, Hame}, title = {Designing and Implementing a Game GIS Service for Earthquake Crisis Management: A case study for District 10 of Tabriz City.}, abstract ={The term "Game GIS” implies to real spatially enabled games in which a special part of the world is virtually simulated, represented and managed. In fact, game GIS is an integrated system consists of video games and geographical information systems, aimed to simulate and representing spatially enabled environment. The achieved result of implementing a game GIS service can be exploited before a crisis for wise designing of a city and diminution of the aftermath casualties. As the decision making process plays the key role to reduce the losses, the need arises for using the models as much as close to the reality. By this, it is possible to use the virtual world in in the form of a game rather than experiencing the real world with real wounded and killed persons in. This enables us to recognize and manage a test environment for promoting the managing the real environment of a city during and before a natural hazard disaster like an earthquake. The game GIS may be counted as a service for sharing and dissemination of spatial information as well as online GIS to have a visual and synoptic management of the earth plant facing various disasters. The current research is aimed to design and implement a software architecture for an earthquake game in Tabriz city (Iran). The study area is district 10 of Tabriz located within a fault zone. According to field surveys, 82.1 percent of buildings in the study area may be vulnerable against earthquake in terms of the quality of building construction. Methodology of the research to design, program and implement the game GIS service are undertaken as the following processes: data collection, database creation and software production. The collected data includes master plan maps of the district 10, building quality, number of floors, building façade materials, age of building, street network (adopted from the master plan of Tabriz) and population of each parcel.  Also, some regions are assumed as hospital, relief-rescue center and treasury money. To design the software, 2D environment of MapControl and for implementing the game into the 2D environment, ArcEngine of ArcGIS have been exploited. The mentioned engine gives us possibility to use of analysis and modelling capabilities as much as closer to the ground reality which are compatible with available geometry of the terrain (Amirian, 2013, 17-19). The MapControl is a framework in which the map and game area are displayed. Symbology is used to show the persons as well as equipments. Briefly, the stages undertaken during the current research can be explained as the following: Data collection based on available sources via field surveying. Data processing and creating a database from street networks and building owned the age, materials, floors fields. Calculation of vulnerability rate for each building separately as well as the amount of deconstruction damage per Richter. Drawing the street and alley network to prepare network analysis dataset. Preparing special network analysis database and evaluation in various situations. Using the gained layers and implementation of the scenario. After that, the conceptual architecture of the software has been designed based on the scenario. The game GIS services has been designed with 6 different classes offer numerous functionalities responsible for displaying program commands and different views of the game. Finally, the service is designed and implemented in a real schema for crisis management application. The resulted game is played in 4 stages. In the first stage, the player starts with a 5 Richter magnitude earthquake and ends while the player gets to 8 Richter. The designed software simulates the destruction rate of buildings based on the influential factors, wounded transfer routing and rescue operation. The game player gains credit according to his quickness and agility. The player would go to the next stage with one Richter magnitude higher, if gains enough credits during each stage. The result of the current research as a Game GIS service, can be used in earthquake simulation happens in various magnitudes for management of decreasing the effects of earthquake, quick reaction, maneuver and education. Considering the achieved results, designing and performing the game GIS service over the web based on open source technologies rather than being desktop and commercial service, can be suggested as a new research frontier for the future researchers.}, Keywords = {Hazards management, earthquake, Game theory, game GIS, Tabriz. }, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {33-50}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.33}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2491-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2491-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {jamali, Mesysam and Moghimi, Ebrahim and Jafarpour, Zeynolabedin and Kardovani, Parviz}, title = {Spatial Analysis of Geomorphological Hazards of Urban Development in the Banks of Khoshk River in Shiraz, Iran}, abstract ={The process of urbanization and development in high-risk areas such as river banks has increased the vulnerability of urban communities to environmental hazards. The banks of Khoshk River in Shiraz is one of these areas. These hazards are two parts : hazards resulted from river and waterways erosion (destruction, transportation and sedimentation) and the hazards resulted from floodings over the surrounding urban areas. In order to prepare the literature review for this study, the various books, theses and articles were applied. Also, in order to determine the spatial position of this section, the Satellite Images and Google Earth pictures were used. The Global Positioning System (GPS) was also applied for the field observations such as collecting spatial data, extracting the kind of formations, Geological structures and faults. ArcGIS and Global Mapper 16.2 were also used for data processing and mapping.  The geomorphological hazards in Khoshk River bank were evaluated in two parts: The evaluation and analysis of the role of river and flooding processes in creating the environmental hazards for Shiraz. The evaluation and analysis of the role of humans as the intensive factors of riverine and floods hazards in city.  The evaluation of longitudinal profile in the river indicates that when the stream is entered to plain, the water moves with more speed because of faults and high steepness over the  Drake alluvial fan. One indication of this process is the presence of coarse sands and angled gravels. In this part, the erosion of riverbank is much higher than the erosion of river bed. In this section, the longitudinal profile of the river has a regular trend of concave and convex sections due to the erosion in convex parts and sedimentation in concave parts. In addition, there is a balance between deposition and digging process. The erosion is very intensive in regions where arc meander is close to  the flooding plain of the bank and causing the destruction of all facilities.  The longitudinal profile in the river indicates that the height and slope of river has been reduced from North West to Maharloo River. The average slope of the river is 2.40%.          In order to determine the role of flooding in creating risks for Shiraz, the floodwater discharge data were collected from Regional Water Organization. Furthermore, in order to understand the role of maximum discharge values, various experimental relations were used in the basin. The un- ordered development of urban areas especially in the north west, destruction of natural areas intensified the amount of  runoff and reduction of vegetation cover.  The pick values of maximum discharges in Khoshk river  with the return periods of 50 and 100 years waere estimated 115m3/s to 131.4m3/s respectively which may result in overflowing of water on the streets. The human factors include the construction of bridges on the river, fencing river with stones and construction of beach, construction of bypasses for public transportation and reducing the traffic in the riverbed and trespassing to the river bed in Shiraz caused the overflowing of water from the river. The last floods in Shiraz occurred in 1987 and 2002 that caused major losses to the houses and commercial places close to Khoshk River. In order to analyze parts of river that are close to the town and have more important influences on the hazards and disasters, the satellite images of khoshk river basin in the town were taken and the river was classified in three sections with regard to risks level, river morphology and river classification based on its hazards for close areas as high risk (Maali abad Bridge limits to Fazilat Bridge and Sardkhaneh Bridge to Maharloo River), low risk(Tange sorkh to Maali abad Bridge) and medium risk (Fazilat Bridge to Sardkhaneh Bridge).}, Keywords = {Spatial analysis, Geomorphological hazards, Development, City, Shiraz.}, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {51-61}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.51}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2492-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2492-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Nazari, Abdolhamid and Sadin, Hossein and Khorrami, Ogholgol}, title = {Evaluation of Ecological Potentials of the Integration plan of the Flooded Villages’ in the Pishkamar Region of Golestan Province}, abstract ={Vulnerability to natural hazards is one of the most important issues of villages in Iran. Iran is listed in the first ten accident-prone countries in the world. It annually imposes many damages on villages through natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, etc. To tackle the problem, an important attempt was applied during the recent decades is the policy of resettlement. The mentioned policy has been followed in forms of movement, integration and aggregation of villages. As spatial foundation and location of settlements are mostly based on natural environmental factors, then before any attempt, or before any dislocation of the villages, ecological potential of the new place needs to be evaluated. However, as dislocations resulted from unpredicted events such as flood are associated with emergency conditions and would be done very quickly; there is not enough time for evaluation before the action. In result, conducting such plans, unlike their positive impacts on service-delivery, cannot be quite welcomed due to ignoring the ecological and environmental factors which need to be considered before any actions. Therefore, such plans can create some negative consequences and be considered as non-successful plans.        One of the projects that have been implemented in connection with this issue in Golestan province is dislocating and integrating flooded villages on Kalaleh County during 2001 to 2006. Based on the mentioned plan, twelve villages which were located at higher section of Gorgan Roud and were aggregated and located at a new site named “PishKamar”. These villages were flood-damaged. Such a site was urgently constructed based on a top-down approach, urban-based patterns and without considering the needs and ideas of stakeholders. So, such a plan needs to be evaluated and assessed against some normal and standard criteria. As such mistakes can be repeated elsewhere, recognizing the pros and cons of such plans would be a good guide and experience for the next projects. The present paper aims to evaluate the ecological potential, physical design of the site as well as measuring the levels of PishKamar site resident’s satisfaction.       This study is a kind of the ex-post facto evaluation and its methodology is descriptive – analytical. To do that, we have considered a four-steps ecological potential of the site using Makhdom’s model. We also have used the 1:50000 topography maps, 1:250000 geological maps, 1:100000 land-use maps and 1:100000 soil fertility and capacity. All layers were transferred into ArcGIS environment, for more analysis. Data collection was based on surveying, interview and questionnaire. The statistical sample include 1350 households heads resided at the studied site, of them 200 persons were randomly selected for data collection purposes(According to Cochran   in the formula, standard deviation was 36%, test statistical was 1.96 and α was equal to 0.05). The results of the first stage of our study indicated that based on 330 primary integrated cells and overlaying the maps, there would exist 13 homogenous ecological units. In addition, a significant proportion of the Makhdom indicators used to assess indices was confirmed by chi-square test. Accordingly, 67% of cells in class I with good ecological potential and 8/28% of the cells in the appropriate ecological class II and only 2.4 percent were in class 3 to be inappropriate ecologically. Thus, of total 13 units, 11 units with an area equivalent to 127 hectares were classified as class I and II, and environmental units with an area of three hectares in third class were inappropriate. Therefore, the studied site was evaluated as a good site in terms of ecological conditions.      In addition, evaluation of residents' satisfaction mapping site in terms of compliance with the ecological conditions and the physical texture design which was based on systemic approach of sustainable development indicators was revealed that the maximum satisfaction of residents was related to house orientation and strength of buildings, road network design and architecture patterns.But the dimensions of environmental issues including soil resistance as a result of landslides, climate harmony with the architecture and the wind direction has not completely been considered. Totally, of 11 evaluated criteria, people were satisfied with 6 of them and disappointed with another 5 criteria. It was confirmed by T-test.}, Keywords = {Ecological potential assessment, Integration Plan , Flooded Villages of Pishkamar site, physical and environmental aspects.}, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {67-82}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.67}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2493-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2493-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Farajzadeh, Manuchehr and GhavidelRahimi, Yousef and Mokri, Sahel}, title = {The Analysis of Forest Fires with Climatic Approach Using Satellite Data in Alborz Area_ Iran}, abstract ={Forest fire is one of the important problems in Iran which is caused by different factors such as human and natural factors. One of these factors is climate conditions that can be created by heat wave and special circulation of atmospheric phenomena. Occurrence of forest fire in north of Iran have different impacts on environment such as destruction of natural. According to the position of Iran in the dry climate zone provides required conditions for this hazard. Unfortunately,every year thousands of hectares of precious green cover is burned. Forest fires have harmful effects on human life directly,or in directly and lead to environmental destruction and pollution, global warming, loss of vegetation, and dry soil erosion. As a result, research on forest fires will become necessary. The study region is Mazandaran province forests located  in north of Iran with area of  23756.4 square Kilometers.The main object of this study is to detect the forest fires using satellite data and associated analysis with synoptic approach based on weather maps. To detect fire in the study area different satellite data such as  synchronized and geostationary satellite data were used. In this study, MODIS satellite imagery and global algorithm detection of fire to detect fire in the forest and meadows of Mazandaran province were used. The climate data including weather station data and weather map were used. Other data include data of LST and vegetation products of MODIS. In order to downscale the global data an appropriate threshold was defined. In the proposed method,  After geometric correction and radiometric the cloud mask was removed, And then fire potential was identified with different thresholds and tests. Three fire episodes of  Savadkooh 2006, Noor , 2009 , and Behshahr, 2010 were selected for study. Results showed  a threshold value of 310 ° K for MODIS sensor band 22 is good for a global scale. Cold and small fires are not detected, Therefore Local threshold was used. In addition, surface temperature and vegetation mapping , chlorophyll amount of vegetation were used before and after the fire episode.It became apparent that the amount of chlorophyll was reduced and the temperature was increased after the fire.    The synoptic maps of the fire day showed a low pressure over the region and mid level systems indicated the advection of warm air over the area. Surface stations showed the increase of temperature and reduction of moisture during the fire days over the long period mean values. According to the results of the study the ground level data accompanied the upper level images and pressure patterns. Universal high performance of fire detection algorithm was used  to identify areas of forest fires Using MODIS satellite images and global algorithm modified to suit the characteristics of the study area fire detection. Then three of the fires were identified with this method. The algorithms with MODIS images and weather data together indicated the validity of the study and performance of this algorithm to identify the location of fire in the study region. Therefore the method of this study can be used in other areas to detect forest fires.}, Keywords = {forest fires, satellite images, MODIS, global algorithms, detection of fire. }, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {83-104}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.83}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2494-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2494-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Shammaii, ali}, title = {Spatial Analysis of Urban vulnerability Against Military Attacks in Piranshahr City}, abstract ={Human and social crisis and natural hazards are of great importance and urgency in urban development planning. As a result, in order to reduce the loss of life and financial damages, one of the necessities of urban planning and spatial analysis is identification of vulnerable areas. In Piranshahr city due to its sensitive geographical location and zoning the implementation of passive defense in urban planning is of utmost importance. The importance of this study is to examine vulnerabilities in order to operate an optimal crisis management. The main objectives of the study are: - Identifying the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the city. - Identification of vulnerable facilities and equipments. The research method is descriptive - analytical and research space is Piranshahr city limits. In order to identify the characteristics and distribution of facilities and equipment in the border town Piranshahr library and field methods have been used. The results of the last census (1390) of Statistical Center of Iran, observation and interviews with local people and experts was used. The master plan and detailed studies of 1391 and relevant maps of the municipalities, the aggregation and dispersion of urban facilities and equipments were used. To value the passive defense importance in the city sixteen vulnerability variables were defined and measured according to opinions of people and experts. Then the data were analyised with the  Delphi software. The main variables include: Lifeline, crisis management centers, military bases, equipment and support centers. After determining the rating of each factor and sub-sectors, by using AHP and Expert Choice software vulnerability of each of the following criteria were calculated. For mapping the city Piranshahr fuzzy model is used. The results showed that the variables of vital artery with coefficient of (0.469), crisis management centers and joint support centers with coefficient (0.201), municipal equipment by a factor of (0.086) and military centers coefficient (0.043) are among the most vulnerable facilities and equipments in Piranshahr city. The neighborhood of western, central and south-west of the city, including the Kohneh-Khaneh and Grow of a cultural1 neighborhoods, Ghods, Isargaran, Zrgtn and Mom-Khalil, were the most vulnerable neighborhoods in the city regarding the military attacks. Spatial analysis of vulnerability of the city resulted in three vulnerability regions. The neighborhoods of the West, Central and South West (Kohneh-Khaneh and Grove neighborhoods and part of a cultural1 neighborhoods, Ghods, Isargaran, Zrgtn and Mom-Khalil) are the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the city. The reason for this situation are the physical characteristics of the city such as texture, organic, fine texture and high density residential units, existence of urban infrastructure, core founding of the city (the Kohneh-Khaneh neighborhood) and the secondary core (Zrgtn neighborhood). whereas the neighborhood (Park City and part of Koy-e-Khayyam and new neighborhoods of Mohammadkhan in the north and the south and southeast of the city) due to the preparations made for the perfect skeletal indices as well as the extent of large open spaces are somewhat immune and safe regarding the passive defense. Keywords: Spatial analysis, vulnerability, Passive defense, city of Piranshahr.}, Keywords = {Spatial analysis, vulnerability, Passive defense, city of Piranshahr}, volume = {2}, Number = {3}, pages = {105-118}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.3.105}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2495-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2495-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2015} } @article{ author = {Khosravi, Mahmood and Fotohi, Samad and Pirouzzadeh, Solim}, title = {A Survey on Spatial–temporal Changes of Coastal Sand Dunes Using Remote Sensing (RS). Case Study: West of Zarabad Region}, abstract ={Iran is among 10 top potential countries of occurrence of natural hazards in the world and from among 35 natural hazards, so far about 30 hazards have occurred in Iran(Negaresh and Latifi,2009). One of the different types of natural hazards which every year causes a lot of damage particularly in arid and arid regions of the world is the existence of sandy hills(Omidwar,2006); sandy hills are mostly created in coastal regions of most seas and oceans. These hills are the result of mutual effects of waves, marine currents, wind and sediments available in coastal regions. They are implemented with components of the coastal environment and construct the eco-systemic bases in which there are valuable collection flora and fauna(Kidd, 2001). The studied region is among the deserts near Gulf of Oman coasts. Sand on the coast are with marine origins and by getting far from the sea, sandy hills, in addition to having marine origins, have land origins. In some seasons of the year, particularly in summers and falls in which Monsoon winds start blowing up, the range of the movement of running sands is more towards rural regions in such a way that annually, a large part of sands covers residential areas, farmlands, road & building facilities, and infrastructural facilities in the rural areas of the west of Zarabad and left behind heavy damages and losses. The aim of this study is the detection of temporal-spatial changes in sand dunes in the Gulf of Oman coastal region. In addition, trend and severity of this hazard and the effects of climatic and environmental factors that intensified dimensions of risk were considered. The present study, to achieve the mentioned objective is an applied study and in terms of research, a method is a descriptive-analytical one. To collected data, it uses library-documentary as well as survey studies in the rural areas of the west of Zarabad. After that, to investigate the changes of the degree of displacement in dunes of the studied region in the 23 year time period (1991-2014), GPS and the Enhance Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images of the Landsat Satellite 7 and 8 with the spatial resolution of 15 and 30 m were used. The satellite images were used in this study with time intervals of 10 and 13 years were related to years of 1991, 2001, and 2014 in August respectively and they were extracted from USGS.The ENVI software and Geographic Information System were used for images processing and interpretation. The geometric and radiometric corrections were applied on images according to standard procedures. Finally, classification and related calculation were performed. The conducted studies in the region based on the interpretation of satellite images and survey studies indicated that changes in the available users in the region, the top increases for dunes occurred in 1991 as 561.25 km2, in 2001 as 568.10 km2, and in 2014 as 575.45 km2. In fact, it has experienced a growth as 17.198 km2. The vegetation whose area covers 32 km2 in 1991, in 2014 has reached an area with 45km2 and increased as 1.6% compared to the previous period. In 1990 to 2014, the area of the user which has been changed in favor of dunes, includes 0.108 km2 vegetation, 10.60 km2 stream sediment, and 264.35 km2 arid lands. Therefore, dunes move with high speed after each storm and during these displacements, a lot of damages are imposed on farmlands, facilities, and rural settlements. Investigating the degree of imposed damages indicates that annually, a large area of regions such as villages, roads, and facilities are influenced by running sands, which this trend can cover more regions in future years. The degree of displacement of dunes, according to the analyses conducted during the research period(1990-2014), has been so great that it has caused the burial of a large number of villages, infrastructure, farmland and roads and resulted in the unemployment of a large number of farmers in the region. Imposed damages to rural settlements have not been less than agricultural sectors and facilities. Therefore, due to the movement of running sands during recent years, 15 villages have been at the exposure of damages in such a way that compensation of these damages has imposed heavy costs, and consumed a lot of time on the shoulder of the society. As a result, the movement of dunes towards studied villages, i.e. Biahi, Mashkouhi, Abd, Rig Mostafa, Kalirak, Kerti, and Gati which are in the coastal regions, and Sohraki, Ganjak, Tanban, Zahrikar, and Kaidar which are located at far distances from the coast suffer from the highest amount of dunes and are considered as the most critical regions in terms of the movement of sand dunes. The results also showed that the important factors on severity and development of these critical regions are: a shortage of precipitation , loose and fine-grained sediments, low slope, no obstructions against the marine winds and high frequencies of winds and storms in this region.On the other hand, the lack of any varieties of vegetation on dunes, as well as the drought of recent years confirms spatial-temporal changes in the sand dunes towards the study area. In this research, the hazards due to running sands in the West region of Zarabad (Baluchestan) were studied. The results from satellite image interpretation and field works were showed that the greatest change of land cover in recent years was related to sand hills. The total areas of sand dunes in 1990 are 561 km²,in 2001 these area increases to 568 km² and finally in 2014 reached to 578.5 km².The average growth rate is about 0.76 km² per year. The  landcover change from river sediments and barren land to sand dunes, during this period are estimated 10 and 264 km². The storm and marine winds moving  sand dunes and running sands from coastal regions to rural settlements,farmland,Roads and other Infrastructures of the region. This hazard was just too much damage like  buried villages, the destruction of roads and unemployment and migration of farmers. The number of evacuated villages are 15 cases that some of these villages is located in the coastal region(Biahi,Mashkohi,Abd,Kalirak……..) and others in inland(Soharaki,Ganjak,Tanbalan,…..). This is the manifestation of crisis and instability in the rural communities that creating important obstacles to development and it is triggered vulnerable rural development was decreased.}, Keywords = {Zarabad region, Sand dunes, Remote Sensing, Spatial–temporal changes, Gulf of Oman}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {1-14}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2528-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2528-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {dorostkargolkhili, Homa and yousefi, Yadollah and RamezanzadehLasboyee, Mehdi and Roradeh, Hematollah}, title = {Assessing the Resilience of the Rural Settlements against the Risk of Flooding in the Villages of the Nekarud Basin}, abstract ={Natural disasters is one of the main challenges for developing countries, which not only cause death and emotional pain and suffering of survivors, but greatly affecting development. Reduction programs and prevention of disasters, including policies that countries to increase community capacity in disaster, are followed to improve the effects of these disasters. One of the risks that affect Iran, is flooding. Iran has a very high risk of flooding, which in most years, about 70% of annual credit plan is paied to reduce the effects of natural disasters. Floods in recent years has left a lot of damage in many parts of Iran. Because the flood event and can not be prevented, but we can assess the resiliency and vulnerability of risks to reduce the effects of flooding greatly. Planning in disaster management process can reduce the risks of accidents and improve the resilience. Thus, how and by what means we can increase the capacity of society to accept a certain level of risk is very important. In recent years, many researches, focused over concept of resilience and disaster risk reduction policy. This research study area is the Nekarud basin in Mazandaran province. Population growth and unethical uses of Nekarud and natural resources, humans and their facilities, infrastructure and natural resources of the basin are vulnerable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the resiliency and identify strengths and weaknesses in the flood affected villages Nekarud margin is based on random sampling of villages (8 villages) have been affected by floods in recent years, were selected. The research method is descriptive and analytical study of its nature. The aforementioned villages to assess the resilience, the four dimensions of economic, social, and institutional infrastructure based on the location of the axis (DROP) provided by Cutter and his colleagues in 2008, was used. According to the surveys and the results obtained, it can be stated that the model DROP, because of the location-based (geographic), and the integrity of the elections aspects and indicators to measure and assess the resilience of settlements is a good model. The dimensions considered to measure resilience include: economic, social, institutional and infrastructure. After determining the dimensions required components and indicators research, scientific references were identified by the study, questionnaires were prepared. Secondly, the need of the rural sample in the form of a questionnaire, collected and analyzed after coding in SPSS. The findings of the study showed that the settlements are in a different situation in terms of resilience in different dimensions. The economic resilience for the total sample is 8.96. The amount of this variable for Zarandin-e Olya, Zarandin-e Sofla, Abelo and Kuhsarkadeh rural settlements is higher than the average whole.}, Keywords = {Resilience, Hazard, Flood, Rural settlement, Nekarud basin.}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {15-30}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.15}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2529-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2529-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Halabian, Amir hossien and hossienalipourjazi, Fereshteh}, title = {Synoptic Analysis of Climatic Hazards in Southwestern Iran (Case study: flood generating heavy precipitation of Azar 1391)}, abstract ={We can identify the flood not only considering circulation pattern in occurring day but also by studying circulation pattern a few days before fresh event. This subject has mutual approach. In one hand, it indicates  that circulation patterns which were before flood event have important role in determining the conditions and moisture content of studied area and playing the fundamental role in few coefficient of region because it determines the previous moisture. On the other hand, it indicates that we should tracking the rain-genesis synoptic systems from source to end place of their activity for studying floods and their meteorology factors which have created them. By this way, we can acquire more comprehensive recognition about the relationship between circulation pattern and floods. In the other words, the identification of synoptic patterns that have created the flood reveals not only the mechanism of their emergence but also is useful for prognosis and encountering with them. The extensive researches have been accomplished about Inundation in the world and Iran, but Iran haven’t much antiquity about synoptic researches. For foreign researches, we can name researchers such as Hireschboeck (1987), Kutiel et al(1996), Komusce and et al (1998), Krichak  and et al (2000), Rohli and et al (2001), Kahana (2002), Teruyuki Kato(2004), Ziv and et al (2005), Carlalima and et al (2009). The numerous researchers have studied the Inundation climatology in internal of country such as Bagheri (1373), Ghayour (1373), Kaviani and Hojatizadeh (1380), Moradi (1380), moradi (1383), Mofidy (1383), Masoodian (1384), Masoodian (1384), Hejazizadeh et al(1386), Parandeh Khozani and Lashkari (1389). In this research, we considered the heavy precipitation of Azar 1391 in southwestern of Iran that resulted in flood phenomenon in the cause and effect manner so that can do necessary prevention actions before occurring the flood for preventing the probable damages and optimal use of precipitations by forecasting the patterns that have created the flood. In this synoptic study, we need to two database: one group is variables and atmospheric data consisting of geopotential height of 500 hpa level (in meter geopotential), zonal wind and meridional wind (in m/s) and special humidity (in gr/kg) during this times 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 Greenwich in 0-80° northern and 0-120° eastern with local resolution of 2.5*2.5 Arc that have been borrowed from database of (NCEP/NCAR) dependent to National Atmosphere and Oceanography Institute of USA, and other group is daily precipitation data of region rain gauge stations during 4-8th Azar of 1391 (24th November – 28th November 2012). In continuation. By applying the environment- circulation approach, we took action to drawing circulation pattern maps of 500 hpa level, thickness of atmosphere patterns of 500-1000 hpa and moisture flux convergence function from 4-8th Azar of 1391 (that for calendar, conform with 48 hours before beginning the showery precipitation until ending the storm activity) by using data which obtained from database of NCEP/NCAR and the synoptic conditions of above flood have been studied and interpreted in the region. Flood is one of the most destructive natural hazards that have imposed and impose many damages to people during the history. Hence, the final aim of this research is to explain the key interactions between atmosphere and surface environment and in other words exploration of the relationship between circulation patterns leading to the flood generating precipitation in the southwestern of Iran for forecasting the time and intensity of showers occurrence that lead to flood. For this purpose, by applying environmental-circulation approach, the circulation patterns identified and studied which resulted in flood generating precipitation. The result of this research indicated that torrential precipitations in the region have formed the deep trough in days 4-8 of Azar on the east of Mediterranean and the studied region placed in the east half of this trough that is the location of atmosphere instability. At same time, thickness patterns, indicate the flux of cold air from northern Europe to lower latitudes and spreading the warm air of north of Africa to latitude 50° northern. As a result we expected the frontal discontinuity in the encountering place of these two air mass. Analysis of the moisture flux convergence patterns also indicated that torrential precipitations were the result of moisture flux from Mediterranean and Persian Gulf; and Red Sea and Arab Sea taken into account as reinforced sources.}, Keywords = {Torrential Precipitation, Synoptic Analysis, Circulation Patterns, Moisture Flux Convergence, Southwest of Iran.}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {31-46}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.31}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2530-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2530-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {afrakhteh, hass}, title = {Capital Accumulation and Environmental Disaster Intensification in Tehran City-Region}, abstract ={The City-region of Tehran is encountered with various environmental problems, including traffic, air pollution, lack of drinking water and green space, physical texture conflict, flood and earthquake. Capital accumulation has considerable role in shaping spaces which can create and intensify environmental disaster in special socio-economic situation. The second cycle is the conversion of capital to fixed and long-term assets with the aim of further benefits, which in fact produces two types of artificially environment during this process namely the built environment for production, and the built environment for consumption. The third cycle is aiming to connect science to production and increase production capacity by investment in science and technology. When production of surplus value reduced in the first cycle, surplus value of second cycle increases through speculation and real estate transaction (real estate capital). Therefore, the owners of the lands and buildings are encouraged in production, trade and supply of these type assets. In the courtiers that are legally and administratively encounter with tax receipt problems,  urban lands ownership is deposited to market system without any control, hosing transaction continues without any limitation, situation is moving forward to personal vested interests, asset value rises rather than production value, the price of land and construction increase severely. In the above mentioned condition, beneficiaries attempt convert the natural resources including park, mountain, river privacy and road privacy to marketable commodity and legally or quasi legally seize them. Therefore, unreasonable construction and population density increases and city-region will encounter with environmental disasters.   The main objective of this research is to understand the underlying factors of capital accumulation through construction and its impacts on createion and intensification of environmental disasters in the Tehran city-region.   Five different regions of Tehran were selected for data collection. "Q-methodology" was used for gathering and analyzing data. The society of communication or people whom the study sought to identify their mentality towards the research topic, were 25 experts selected through purposive sampling. To set the concourse of communication, a combination of primary (experts commented in an interview) and secondary (sources of credit) sources have been used and   34 statements have been developed. After sorting the data for analysis, SPSS software data matrix is ​​formed. Factor analysis, as main method of analyzing Q data matrix has been used based on Q logical methodology. The results of Q analysis depicted four viewpoints with variance of 95.911 percent on the underlying cause of capital accumulation through construction and its contribution on increasing risk of natural hazards in Tehran city-region. The first viewpoint has devoted 52.800 percent of total variances and can be titled as" Function of real estate transaction and Non-productive economic domination". The second viewpoint which has received 18.914 percent of total variances is accordance with "commodification of land and housing". The third viewpoint is" management and monitoring of the city-region space" with 15.163 percent of total variances.  The fourth viewpoints under the title of" monitoring and control of natural resources" has assigned 9.034 percent of total variances. As result of these processes, land and housing business have weakened society's productive capacity by extensive land use change in the urban peripheral area's due to its huge and quick profit. The above process accompany with selling excess density policy created a powerful political and economic stratum which harmed city sustainable development. The mountainous area of north, north east and west of Tehran, have annexed to metropolis as a result of above mentioned regulation and  may gardens have converted to construction by different gropes and institutions. Q method analysis depicted that the Tehran City-Region has converted from use value to exchange value. It means that values of the city including work, security, education, leisure and welfare have been lost in favor of exchange value. In other words, the city has been converted to a commodity for exchange and selling in pursuit of profit, rising cost of urban land, building and housing. Consequently, the city-region construction site is extended to the river beds, steep slops and surrounding natural environment. This in turn is leading to rapid land use change and violation of environmental and spatial rules and regulations and intensification of environmental hazards.}, Keywords = {Capital Accumulation, Real Estate Speculation, Commodification of Land and Housing, Inefficient Bureaucracy, Environmental Disasters, Tehran City-Region}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {47-64}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.47}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2532-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2532-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {Mostafaii, Hasan and Alijani, Bohloul and Saligheh, Mohamm}, title = {Synoptic Analysis of Widespread Heavy Rains in Iran}, abstract ={Heavy and torrential rains are one of the hazardous phenomena of atmosphere which always cause several severe damages over Iran. For this reason in every developmental program their intensity and frequency should be understood and predicted. The main factor to their development and intensification are the atmospheric pressure patterns and motions. Therefore, in order to predict their occurrence, in this study we extracted the   highest daily precipitation of days with 90th percentile and above of the year for the 40 selected stations during the 1980- 2009 period. Of these days we selected the days in which at least 25 percent of the stations had the highest daily precipitation. For the selected days we extracted the 500 hPa and sea level pressure maps. Then we clustered the sea level maps through the use of factor analysis and cluster analysis. We extracted five pressure patterns for the whole country explaining 77.63 percent of the total variation. In each pressure pattern we divided the daily rainfall intensity of its days by the daily intensity of all selected rainy days. In this way we developed an index which measures the share of each pressure pattern in the hazardous capacity of the country,s torrential rain days.     The results showed that during all of the torrential rain days there was a deep trough in the region between the Mediterranean Sea and Iran at the 500 hPa level which is accompanied with a low pressure center over Iran. The upper level trough brought the atmospheric instability and the low level pressure system brought the moisture from the western and southern water bodies and intensified the upper level instability. But the variations of their location and intensity caused different pressure patterns and rainfall intensities. Thus predicting the position and intensity of these pressure patterns are very important to monitor the torrential rainfall episodes of the country.    The CP3 pattern with 30 percent of the days showed the highest during this pattern the western trough was bifurcated to the west of Iran but merged to the east. Thus tow maxima of intensive rain days were developed over the south and northwest of the country. The surface low center was deepened up to the northeast of the country bringing moister from the southern water bodies to the country. This pattern was dominant through the fall and winter seasons. The CP4 pattern with 12 percent frequency was the least occurring pattern. This pattern caused the heavy rains of the western parts of the country. The very deep trough to the west of Iran cause very heavy rains in the region. The CP1 pattern was strong in the north and northeast of the country where as the CP2 and CP5 patterns were dominated the southern parts of the country.}, Keywords = {}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {65-76}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.65}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2533-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2533-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {azizpour, farhad and Hamidi, Mohammed Saeed and Chabok, Jamshi}, title = {The Role of Local Participation in Flood Risks Management in Rural Areas Case study: Villages in the Bashar River Basin in Boyer Ahmad City}, abstract ={Among the various environmental hazards, flood is the greatest and most important climate crisis which takes every year the lives of thousands people and impose severe damages on human society and environment. Today, it is clear that controlling all hazards, including floods is not possible. Suitable management can only minimize the damages. The literature on natural disasters management indicated that in the process of natural disaster management and their vulnerability mitigation, there are two dominant paradigm: technic-based approach and community-based approach. Community-based approach welcome the local cooperation and participation in disaster management process and calls for strengthening local capacity through the participation of all individuals and groups at the local level. This approach is not only appropriate to provide solutions for disaster reduction, but build disaster preparedness. Because disaster preparedness planning requires special attention to local participation. In the geographic area of Bashar River Basin, due to the lack of suitable agricultural land and greater quantity of water for rice crop, villages have been built at rivers edge. So that, most of the houses and farms in the villages are located very close to the river. However, these locations are extremely vulnerable to flooding. This study reviews the status of local participation and its impact on reducing flood risks. Also, this research focuses on factors influencing local community trends and choices in the participation rate. This study is applied research in terms of purpose and uses descriptive-analytical method. According to the nature of the study, data were collected through fieldwork and library research methods using observation, interview, questionnaire and evaluation card techniques. To understand different characteristics of community, Likert scale and one-sample t-test were used and measurement scale for data was ordinal. Also. The method of selective experimental approach based on profit was taken to evaluate the level of different trends in Community's financial participation for reducing detrimental effects of flood. To recognize the community awareness and perception toward flood risk and the probability of its occurrence in the future, the willingness level to participation and to explore the effective factors on villager’s decisions and to utilize modern management techniques the selective experimental approach based on evaluation card and logit model were employed. The results of statistical analysis showed that in the study area, 86.5% of the community have experienced the damages caused by flooding and forecasted the likelihood of heightened chance of flooding in the future. Finding showed that although the people use traditional methods for managing flood, but they tend to employ modern methods such as dam building for reducing flood risk. This help them to increase the safety factor for their locations and farm lands. In spite of the fact that the villagers expressed the higher safety factor for new management methods such as (dam building, river broadening and preventing the destruction of forest and environment), but it seems that improper functioning, adverse consequences (environmental and socio-economic) of projects implementation (dam building) as well as the inability of villager's financial participation (high cost of this kind of methods), are barriers to using them for lowering the flood risks and damages. The review of the possible role of some intervening variables to predict local communities' participation in decision-making processes showed that low-income, old age of the samples with high average (47.61) and education with lower average (3.16) are the most important factors influencing community decision making. The results of binominal logit model showed that the proposed variables is significant at the 5% level. If the offer price increase, the chance of residents' acceptance of participation will decrease and vice versa.}, Keywords = {Local Participation, Flood Risk, Management, Bashar River}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {77-94}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.77}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2534-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2534-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} } @article{ author = {soltanigordfaramarzi, tahereh and Mofedi, Abbas and Gandomkar, amir}, title = {Synoptic Analysis of the Severe Polluted Days in the City of Mashhad}, abstract ={For a synoptic analysis of high polluted days in 13 and 14 November 2007, a combinatorial synoptic analysis was used. From methodology prospect, the present study has utilized the "circular environment" synoptic approach and with respect to the restrictions on very high-polluted days in Mashhad city, the subjective synoptic analysis used for data processing and analyzing the prevailing atmospheric conditions. In the present research, four sets of the data, including the pollution data recorded at the stations monitoring air pollution, digital atmospheric data, data of upper air stations and the outputs of HYSPLIT model were utilized. The data on air pollution obtained from the Department of Environment Protection of Khorasan Razavi were related to Wahdat station located in the center of Mashhad city. The pollutants include CO, NO2, SO2, ozone, and particulate matter (PM10(  prepared and processed on a daily scale for a 7-year statistical period (2005-2012). When studying the quality of air pollution over Mashhad city, it is necessary to indicate that Mashhad city had only one station monitoring air pollution (Wahdat station) until 2010 and unfortunately, out of 10 present stations for monitoring the air pollution, only Wahdat station was involved a suitable statistical period duration to be studied. Accordingly, the present study has been conducted only by using the pollution data recorded in Wahdat station and utilizing the data of other stations ignored due to the shortness of statistical period duration. The reanalyzed data of the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) with a horizontal separation 2.5 × 2.5 were used in order to study the atmospheric conditions. The atmospheric conditions include the sea level pressure, geo-potential height, vertical velocity, and orbit wind (u) & meridian wind (v) components on different atmospheric levels from the past 48 hours and in a 6-hour interval. In addition, upper air data about Mashhad station (Mashhad airport) were used on a similar period. Upper air data have been obtained from the website of Wyoming university (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) on under study days, including air temperature,  dew point, direction, wind intensity and the atmospheric stability and instability conditions (based on Skew-T Curves – logP). These data are only available on Zero Greenwich hour. The outputs of the HYSPLIT model were also used as complementary data for tracing particulate matter in days 10 -15 in November. In this study, the HYSPLIT model, version 4.9 was used. In the present research, the role of regional atmospheric circulation and pressure patterns were investigated on a synoptic scale in very high-polluted days in November 2007 in Mashhad metropolitan. For this purpose, the mechanism dominated on occurring a very high-polluted period in this city was analyzed using a combinatorial method based on synoptic and thermodynamic analyses as well as tracing particulate matter. The results of studies involve the following findings: the days 13 and 14 November 2007 (22 and 23 Aban, 1386) show the highest concentration rates among the polluted days in Mashhad city. The findings of the research show that the synoptic pattern dominated the very high polluted period (13 and 14 November 2007) is a migrant high-pressure pattern. Accordingly, it may be concluded that the incidence of serious pollutions in Mashhad is initially the result of interacting local conditions with air circulation on a regional scale and then the other local factors. In the other words, Mashhad city would experience very high-polluted days only when regional atmospheric circulation provides suitable conditions to increase the concentration of pollutants. What is obvious is that in the winter season the serious pollutions occurred in Mashhad city are mainly as the results of prevailing extra-tropical systems (migrant anticyclone). Studying subjective synoptic analysis, tracing the backtracking of particulate matter and the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions ( combinatorial synoptic analysis) have provided a deeper and more accurate understanding of the conditions prevailing in the occurrence of serious pollutions in the northeast of Iran. Studying the output of the HYSPLIT model indicates that the migrant stack system of western wave together with the subtropical stack would control the air circulation pattern on the northeast of Iran in 13 and 14 November 2007. Tracing the particulates shows an anticyclone system on the zone. Also, studying SKEW-T Curves related to the migrant high-pressure pattern revealed a different structure, so that the day 12 November 2007 faced with a radiation inversion along with an increased temperature, but on day 13 November 2007 an inversion from the sort of subsidence between the interval of level 850 to 700 hpa was appeared and also reached to higher than 700 hpa.}, Keywords = {Synoptic Analysis ,Polluted Days,Mashhad}, volume = {2}, Number = {4}, pages = {95-112}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.95}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2535-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2535-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2016} }