@article{ author = {Asgari, Shamsallah and GHANAVATI, EZATOLLAH and Shadfar, Sam}, title = {Evaluation of landslides on sedimentary quantitative of Ilam Dam Watershed}, abstract ={ Quantitative assessment of landslide sedimentation in the ILAM dam Basin Information on the accurate volume of landslides and sedimentation in landslides is a research necessity, with the assumption that the bulk of sediment accumulated in the ILAM Dam (located between , E and , N) is related to the surface landslides of the basin. Although the role of landslides in erosion, sediment transport and sedimentation of slippery basins is confirmed and different experts understand and determine the relationship between the fluctuation of slopes and the fluctuation system in many respects more important than other areas. Because according to the results they can assess the widespread environmental changes, but comprehensive research on the scale of catchment basins has done very little (Harvey 2002). So far, the study of wet landscapes in Iran has been more sensitive to the factors, their sensitivity and their hazards, and there has been no study on the sedimentation of landslides. Data and Method First, using a geomorphologic system methodology with topographic maps of 1: 50000, geological map of 1: 100000, aerial photography1: 20000, Landsat TM1988 ETM2002,2013 satellite imagery, and Google Earth in the GIS environment in the following sub-basins and landslide events at the following levels The basin was drawn. The discharge data of the water and sediment flow of three hydrometric stations GOLGOL,CHAVIZ and MALEKSHAHI Station were provided from the waters of the ILAM province. Two models of estimated MPSIAC and EPM models have been used to estimate soil erosion and subsoil sedimentation. The Moran spatial correlation model was used to introduce the spatial pattern of landslides, and the fuzzy logic model was used to determine the relationship between the dependent landslide to the independent variables and the potential risk of landslide hazard in the basin. In order to elucidate the quantitative results of landslide sedimentation, empirical models of estimation of sediment erosion, hydrological model of discharge curve and sediment, observational statistics of sediment during statistical period, landfall time occurrence in compliance with the hydrometric station sediment peak during the statistical period of computation Estimated a small amount of sedimentation of the landslides of the ILAM dam basin. Result and Discussion The spatial correlation model of Moran showed that the data have spatial correlation and cluster pattern. The average total sediment production in the MPSIAC model in the GOLGOL basin was estimated to be 13.3 tons per hectare per year under the CHAVIZ basin of 10.3 tons per hectare for one year and 4.00 tons per hectare in the sub-basin MALEKSHAHI. Using hydrological model of discharge-sediment curve, the mean sediment was calculated during the statistical period at the hydrometric station of the sub-basin of GOLGOL 18.8 ton per hectare, the station CHAVIZ 10.4 tons and the station MALEKSHAHI 0.9 tons of sediment per hectare per year was calculated. According to the results of the research methodology, the observation of the sediment in the two stations of GOLGOL and CHAVIZ compared to estimated sediment is related to the events occurring in these two sub-basins. The data of 16 active landslides were recorded. Under the GOLGOL basin, 9 landslide events occurred, and in the CHAVIZ basin, 7 landslide events, the time of landfall occurrence recorded with sedimentary peaks, the length of the statistical period, the precipitate in the sub-basins was almost synchronized. Average relationship between suspended period of the statistical period - average of the peak delayed flight time of the statistical period coinciding with the occurrence of landslide = the amount of suspended load of landfall occurrence in the basin. The amount of suspended land slip under the GOLGOL 75088.19 - 315.85=74772.34 Landing slope under the Chavez Basin 19907.30 - 20.24=19887 The area of the sub-basin is about 29,000 hectares and the active landslide area is about 100 hectares. According to the calculations, 77772.34 tons of suspended sediment is a sedimentary passage passing at the GOLGOL hydrometric station, which shows with a coefficient of 1.4 times the suspended sediment load of approximately 104681 tons of landslide sedimentation in this sub-basin, which shows the amount of sediment yield 100 hectares of landslide, so each landslide hectare had an average of 1046. 81 tons of sediment deposited at the GOLGOL hydrometric station. The area under the Chavez Basin is about 14000 hectares and the active landslide area of this sub-basin is about 65 hectares. According to the data of the discharge data, the sedimentation of the Chavez hydrometric station is 19887 tons of suspended sediment load, which shows a 1.4 equivalent of 27842 tons of landslide sedimentation in this sub-basin, equivalent to a slope of 428.33 tons per hectare. Conclusion According to the calculations, it is concluded that in the sub-basin of flowering GOLGOL, 37.35% is equivalent to 4.9 tons per hectare per year, the increase of sediment is related to landslide events. As a result, 28.2 tons of sediment per hectare were introduced in one year Dam reaches ILAM. The results showed that in the CHAVIZ sub basin, 38.2 percent is equivalent to 4.6 tons per hectare per year for the increase of sediment related to landslide events. As a result, an amount of 14.5 tons of sediment per hectare has entered ILAM dam in one year. In the sub-basin MALEKSHAHI, there was no increase in sediment during the period without active landslide occurrence. A total of 1237314 tons of landslide deposition have entered the ILAM Dam. To control this threat, the appropriate action by the executive office for sustainable development should be applied.}, Keywords = {Keywords: Evaluation, Ilam Dam Watershed, landslide, sedimentary, sediment discharge,water discharge}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {1-16}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2630-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2630-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Anabestani, ALiakbar and Javanshiri, Mahdi and Mahmoudi, Hamideh and DarbanAstaneh, Mohammad-Rez}, title = {Spatial Analysis of Villagers’ Resilience Against Environmental Hazards (A Case Study of Central District of Faruj County)}, abstract ={Spatial Analysis of Villagers’ Resilience Against Environmental Hazards (A Case Study of Central District of Faruj County) Statement of the problem The concept of resilience is the outcome of changes in risk managing in current decade. Today, the views and theories of disaster management and sustainable development seek to create societies resilient against natural disasters. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts, floods, etc. are inevitable phenomenon which always pose a serious threat to development, especially in rural areas. This reflects the need to pay more attention to resilience in local level (rural areas). Resilience is the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb and deal with disorder or disturbance, so that the basic functional structure, can maintain the capacity of reorganization and adapting to changes and tensions. Carpenter defines resilience as the capacity of an environmental and social system to absorb a disruption, reorganize and thereby maintain essential functions. Thus, in order to reduce damage caused by natural disasters, the capacity of rural areas to deal with these events should be increased. Increased level of resilience against natural hazards is possible through accurately identifying the factors affecting resilience. Therefore, the aim of this study is the spatial analysis of factors affecting the promotion of rural environmental resilience in the face of natural hazards in rural areas of Faruj County. In fact, the present study seeks to answer the following questions: what are the factors which may increase the level of resilience in the sample communities exposed to natural hazards, and how resilient are the sample villages of the study? Research Methodology This study is an applied research conducted in a descriptive-analytical method based on questionnaires. Data were collected through library research and field works which required completing questionnaires and conducting interviews with villagers living in the Central District of Faruj County. Validity of the questionnaires was confirmed based on experts' views and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach alpha for different dimensions. The population consisted of 4591 households from the villages suitable for temporary accommodation. Based on the Cochran formula, 252 were obtained from these samples. They were selected by stratified random sampling. Using statistical analysis methods in SPSS software, we analyzed the data to measure resilience in sample villages of the study area. We also used Excel and GIS in various parts of the study. To determine the best option, we used the VIKOR models, Gray relational analysis and Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS). Results and discussion The results showed that infrastructure dimension with a mean of 2.92 and the economic dimension with a mean of 2.58 respectively had the highest and least impact on increased resilience which suggest that these villages compared to sample villages have relatively good infrastructure facilities. However, due to the lack of proper institutional framework and poor performance of crisis management institutions, villagers are less satisfied with these organizations. Accordingly, based on t-test, the actual mean of the total respondents’ views was less than 3 and at the moderate level, and the economic index with the t statistics of -10.38 had the most negative impact on the resilience of the villagers. It should be noted that according to the results of the resilience correlation with the individual characteristics of the respondents, it became clear that the gender and marital status has a direct and weak relationship with each dimension of resilience, which means men and the married people compared to the women and the singles believe their villages are more resilient. Besides, there is a weak and reverse relationship between the education of the individuals and their resilience, meaning that people with lower education compared to educated people, believe their villages are more resilient. There was no relationship between age and the dimensions of resilience. In order to assess the impact of each index of the study on the level of resilience in the villages of the study, the confirmatory factor analysis test was used which revealed that among the indices of the study, "the villagers’ satisfaction with the performance of the Rural Council and administers (Dehyars)", "the role of institutions in educating people about various incidents" and "the use of new and durable materials to prevent the damaging effects of the incidents" had the greatest effect on the resilience of the samples villages. Eventually, to determine the best village in terms of resilience for establishing a temporary settlement site in crisis management, we use three techniques: additive ratio assessment (ARSA),- VIKOR and Gray relational analysis. We prioritized the villages based on the mean rank method. -Considering the indices of resilience in the rural areas of the study, the villages of Mefrangah, Ostad and Pirali have the highest ranks, and the villages of Rizeh and Roshavanlou have the lowest ranks. Key words: resilience, environmental hazards, organizational-institutional dimension, additive ratio assessment (ARSA), Faruj Central District}, Keywords = {resilience, environmental hazards, organizational-institutional dimension, additive ratio assessment (ARSA),‌ Faruj Central Distric}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {17-38}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.17}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2722-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2722-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Arami, Seyed Abdolhossein and Ownegh, Majid and MohammadianBehbahani, Ali and Akbari, Mehri and Zarasvandi, Alirez}, title = {The analysis of dust hazard studies in southwest region of Iran in 22 years (1996-2017)}, abstract ={The analysis of dust hazard studies in southwest region of Iran in 22 years (1996-2017) Dust storms are natural hazards that mostly occur in arid and semi-arid regions and there are many harmful consequences. According to the topographic-climatic conditions in Iran and the significant increase in the number and severity of dust storms occurrence in recent decades, especially in the West and Southwest regions where the dust storms are the most important environmental crisis. Studying this phenomenon is necessary for better management its harmful effects. Since most of the research are implemented as different case studies, and there is no comprehensive study that review a wide range of existing researches with overall results in the southwestern parts of Iran, in this study a comprehensive overview of available literature reviews are addressed including dust spatio-temporal variations, modeling, detection, and health issues. This research is based on a library research and search of valid national and international scientific articles about the dust crisis and no data-processing. We attempted to analyze temporal and spatial variations in the south and southwest of the country using the available studies and the challenges of this phenomenon in the past and present to provide a new perspective to apply a comprehensive land management and managing environmental hazards in Iran with all the problems. A review of the history of dust storm studies from information sources showed that most researchers (61.40%) used a synoptic method to study dust storms, and the most important indicators that were considered by the researchers in physical properties were frequency and density, 34.21% and 34.21% of the studies respectively. Dust detection methods show that the use of thermal or reflective bands cannot detect dust phenomena with high precision, therefore, a model which applies both bands simultaneously should be developed. In other words, applying a combination of reflective and thermal spectra of Military Origin Destination Information System (MODIS) could offer better results in detection of dust storms in the study area. Studies indicate that most of the storms originate outside of Iran. Moreover, exposure to airborne contaminants, especially when the dust storms occur in the Middle East, can lead to an increase in the related disease outbreak in the study area. For instance, there was a 70% increase in referring to medical centers for lung related problems when a dust phenomenon occurred. The Results showed that in cold seasons where low height and western waves is formed on the European and Mediterranean Sea, due to the heaviness, cold air in these days, can penetrate low latitudes and their trough is located over the Middle East area. Under warming condition, the front of rough is formed as ridge, then engendered turbulence and wind. In the warm seasons, thermal low pressure is rapt to ward in the high latitude, and severe dryness of the area is also due to the fact that the dusty phenomenon is intensified in the area. Dust storm occurrence in the summer due to bareness of the land, transparency of the atmosphere, dryness of the air and the vast plains, which can reduce the formation of local instability in the case of a sharp rise in air temperature. The dispersal of deserts and sand sea is mainly in the northwest of Khuzestan province, especially in Fakkeh and Moussan which are located in the western borders of Iran with Iraq, which cover most of the Azadegan plain and west of the Karkheh and Mollasani and Maroon Rivers, and ultimately end in the Omidiyeh and Aghajari regions. Results show that the border between Syria and northwest Iraq, west and southwest of Iraq to east and northeast of Saudi Arabia are the main sources of dust in the studied region . Synoptic conditions considering simultaneously with the occurrence of dust storms showed the significant role of cyclonic systems in the occurrence and transfer of this phenomenon. With the phenomenon occurrence during the warm period, the significant strengthening in low pressure of Iraq along with the trough formation in Zagros causes the formation and transfer of dust towards Southwest Iran. Simulation studies of dust particles movement paths have shown that most of the paths are from the northern and central parts of Iraq and Syria and the source of dust storms are deserts and dry regions of the northern and central parts of Iraq and Syria. In addition, the study of the transmission paths of particles in dust storms indicates the presence of a lower level jet, which causes horizontal displacement of dust particles in a shallow layer and prevents its vertical propagation in the higher layers of the atmosphere. In general, although the dust phenomenon is transnational and uncontrollable, it can introduce limitations in terms of circulation patterns and statistical properties at different time intervals to the different planners via its time and scope which will necessitate appropriate programs for combating and adaptation. Keywords: Dust, Air pollution, Spatio-temporal pattern, Southwest, Iran.}, Keywords = {Dust, Air pollution, Spatio-temporal pattern, Southwest, Iran.}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {39-66}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.39}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2729-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2729-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Niyasti, Masoomeh and Garakani, Seyed Amir Hossei}, title = {Study of vulnerability of settlements in rural areas A comparative study of salvage towns and villages in the eastern part of Golestan province}, abstract ={Study of vulnerability of settlements in rural areas A comparative study of salvage towns and villages in the eastern part of Golestan province There are important choices to be made after the various accidents and the numerous financial and psychological effects of rural settlements, including decisions on how to intervene in rural settlements and the adoption of reconstruction policies. This intervention is identified as four types of identification, relocation, continuous development, or integration and integration for the reconstruction of damaged or destroyed villages due to natural hazards.Many scholars and scholars believe that among the above models, aggregation and integration have economic advantages in supplying facilities and services. The ruler's insight has led to less attention to its economic, social, physical and environmental implications. It seems that this indifference has led to the implementation and implementation of relocation and integration plans of rural settlements with the change in their vulnerability in the economic, social, physical and environmental dimensions and the development of the vulnerability of affected society Increase against future accidents. Extreme rainfall in the eastern province of Golestan province in August 2005 resulted in two devastating floods, one of the most damaging floods in the country. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Housing Foundation has been providing housing for the affected population and in order to reduce the resettlement of villages due to the occurrence of future floods, the eleven villages in the city of Kalaleh, which had been damaged in recent floods in Golestan Province, were displaced. This research is descriptive-analytic and its data have been collected in two sections of library and field. The statistical population of this study is a collection of residents of the walled city and villagers who have returned to the villages of Chatal, Ghapan Oliya and Sofla. To test the vulnerability in two samples, independent samples t have been used. Comparison of two sample returns in villages Chatal, Gapan Oliya and Sofla with the displacement and aggregation of villages in the recreational city showed that each of the studied samples had weaknesses and strengths in different dimensions of vulnerability. The vulnerability of the Faragi city in the economic dimension, using the average for each of the three villages and the city of recreation (3.18 and 2.89, respectively), shows that the resettlement policy in the area of study has increased the vulnerability, especially in the outskirts of the Faragi city Is. The results of this research in the economic sector are consistent with the results of Firouznia and colleagues (2011) and Stadekelai et al. (1394). Regarding the role of resettlement in social vulnerability after examining the criteria, the average for each of the three villages and the Faragi city (3.21 and 2.77 respectively) shows that the resettlement policy from the social perspective in the scope of the study increases the level of vulnerability especially in the Faragi city. The results of this research in the social section are consistent with the results of Montazarian (2011), Mohammadi, Professor Kalayeh et al. (1394), Zaharan et al. (2011), Peik et al. (2014) and Navara et al. (2013). In the physical dimension of the environment, it can be said that resettlement in general has reduced the level of vulnerability and improved life indicators in the Faragi city. The average for each of the three villages and the Faragi city (2.89 and 3.57, respectively) shows that the resettlement policy from the physical-environmental perspective in the study area has reduced the amount of vulnerability in the outskirts of the Faragi city to the three villages. On the other hand, the zoning of physical-permafrost range shows that although the physical injuries of the outskirts of the Faragi city are lower than the three villages, but considering the location of the Pishkamar's site in the zone with moderate damage, the physical-peripheral city of leisure also vulnerable. In most post-traumatic reconstruction programs, the policy of removing the entire or part of the settlement as a suitable technical solution to reduce the vulnerability and safety of phenomena such as floods, landslides and so on Considered . However, the review of various experiences suggests that displacement of settlements, although effective in reducing physical morbidity, is mainly due to numerous social and economic consequences. The displacement and consolidation of 11 villages of Golestan province in the post-flood Pishkamar site of 1384 were unsuccessful due to the lack of planning and designing, with macroeconomic and social costs, in reducing the dimensions of vulnerability of a settlement, including social and economic. This has led to the return of villagers to their old villages. The quantitative results of this research also confirm the hypothesis that increasing the migration to cities, returning to old villages, ethnic conflicts, reducing production levels, increasing bank debt and the prevalence of insecurity in the outskirts of the Faragi city are one of the most important factors in increasing the vulnerability in the social and economic dimensions of the study area. The investigations indicate an increase in the amount of vulnerability in recreational areas in terms of economic and social dimensions and reducing its physical-environmental vulnerability to three villages. Since reducing the vulnerability of settlements is subject to control and reduction of damage and damage in all aspects, it seems that the reconstruction of rural settlements after the flood of 2005 in Golestan province has been effective in increasing the vulnerability of this area. Keywords: Vulnerability, Relocation, Resettlement, Faragi city, Golestan Province.}, Keywords = {Vulnerability, displacement, rural settlements, recreational city, Golestan province}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {67-82}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.67}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2740-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2740-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {saffari, amir and saffari, amir and karami, jalal}, title = {Investigation about the influence of land-cover and land use changes on soil erodibility potential, case study: Gharesou, Gorganrood}, abstract ={Investigation about the influence of land-cover and land use changes on soil erodibility potential, case study: Gharesou, Gorganrood Land use and land cover (LUC) change associated with climatic and geomorphologic conditions of the area have an accelerating impact on the land degradation. Natural as well as human-induced land use land cover change (LUCC) has significant impacts on regional soil degradation, including soil erosion, soil acidification, nutrient leaching, and organic matter depletion. Since the last century, soil erosion accelerated by human activities has become a serious environmental problem. It has a manifold environmental impact by negatively affecting water supply, reservoir storage capacity, agricultural productivity, and freshwater ecology of the region. In recent years, many researchers have highlighted the environmental consequences of soil erosion. Soil erosion estimation at a regional scale is influenced by the complexity of the soil erosion process and the availability of data describing the soil erosion factors. In the last decade, regional and national level assessments of soil erosion were carried out using different approaches, ranging from indicator or factor-based approaches to process-based models. However, the revised universal soil loss (RUSLE) and its modifications are still widely used because of its simplicity and a greater availability of input parameters. Gharesou basin is one of the sub-basins of Gharesou, it suffered from severe erosion in some areas over the past years. This erosion has occurred for different reasons and one of them is land use change and weak management of water and soil resources. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of land-cover changes on the potential of soil erosion in Gharesou Basin, a sub-basin of Gorganrood, in Golestan province. For this, we have employed RUSLE Model and used landsat satellite images from the sensors of TM, ETM, and OLI for 1985, 2000, and 2015. The potential soil erosion in this study was estimated using RUSLE model, which can be described using following equation: A = R × K × LS × C × P where A is amount of soil erosion calculated in tons per hectare per year, R is rainfall factor , K is soil erodibility factor , L is slope length factor, S is slope steepness factor, C is cover and management factor, and P is erosion control practice factor. To run the RUSLE model in GIS, first, rainfall raster layer, soil, slope, Digital Elevation Model, and also layers of soil protection range were created. Each of the involved factors was calculated in separate units in the basin level. In this research, Gharesou basin was analyzed based on raster network data with 30 meters cell size, because, from one hand it's small enough to show heterogeneity of the basin and on the other hand, it matches pixel dimensions of landsat satellite images. The results of land-cover changes have revealed a decrease in dense forest areas, low forest areas and the mixture of orchard, forest and pastures in a thirty years period. According to the results of RUSLE, changes of the classes indicate a general trend to the soil loss in the basin. Therefore, Gharesou basin is a basin with increasing soil erosion potential. In the plain and coastal plain areas of the basin, that is the mainly cultivated area, the amount of erosion is different from the other areas, and soil loss process is decreasing. It's due to the changes of cultivation method from traditional to modern, increase of irrigated farming area, choosing more environmentally friendly plants, and also, increase in the area of cities and villages from 7.14 percent to 29.04 percent during 30 years. In the study classes, for output of RUSLE model, in every 3 years of study, the maximum area relates to the classes of 100 to 200 Ton per year that is more seen in the mountainous regions. In these regions, all factors except vegetation are toward soil loss. Also, during 30 years, the amount of dense vegetation decreased from 34.56 to 31.55. In fact the only factor in protecting soil in (prone to erosion) areas has given its place to less effective vegetation, so, the area of this region has increased and Gharesou basin is in danger of soil loss in mountainous and forest parts. Also, areas with more than 200 Ton in hectare, with the lowest amount, have had a tangible increase during 30 year of study and its amount has increased from 11.74 to 12.50. These areas are usually located in mountainous parts with no vegetation. Also, the average of soil erosion potential estimated in Gharesou basin for 1985, 2000 and 2015 is 102.02, 103.11, and 103.76 (ton per hectare per year). This amount was found in the sub-basins too and except the sub-basin 4 located in coastal plain areas of the basin, with farming use, the amount of other sub-basins is increasing. According to the results of study, mountainous parts of Gharesou basin, has the most damage due to the accumulation of involved factors in the potential increase of soil loss. So, the necessity of watershed management is observed. Also modification of cultivation pattern and soil conservation training in farming lands of foothills and hillsides are required. Keywords: RUSLE Model, soil erosion, Gharesou, Remote Sensing, land-cover changes}, Keywords = {RUSLE Model, soil erosion, Gharesou, Remote Sensing, land-cover changes}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {83-96}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.83}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2701-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2701-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Ghavidel, Yousef}, title = {Climatic geography of Tropical Cyclone hazards Affective on the southern coasts of Iran}, abstract ={Climatic geography of Tropical Cyclone hazards Affective on the southern coasts of Iran The occurrence of any climatic fringes, including annual tropical storms, leave irreparable risks in its dominated areas. Understanding these events and knowledge of the time of their occurrence can be helpful in managing the unexpected incidents caused by them. Tropical cyclones are important natural turbulent processes in tropical and middle ecosystems in a number of regions of the world. Among the dynamic conditions of the atmosphere for the formation of tropical storms, there are three basic conditions: 1. The vertical wind shear should be limited between the 850 to 200 mb and the wind speed between these levels should be less than 10 meters per second. Such a situation allows the formation of a straight column, without breaking, to initiate tropical storms. 2- The formation state of tropical storms should be such that at least it is five degrees of latitude distant from the equator. Such conditions provide the minimum of Coriolis force to provide the tropical cyclic rotation along with other fundamental and apparent forces of the atmosphere and they occur following the pressure forces, Coriolis and centrifugal forces, cyclostrophic winds, and cyclic circulation in the center of the low pressure. 3- The presence of turbulence or discordance with vorticity and the convergence in the lower troposphere, or the anticyclone rotation and divergence in the upper levels of the atmosphere before the onset of activity, and the formation of tidal disturbances. Tropical storms are created by the presence of various dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as sea surface temperature and moisture content (thermodynamic properties), and flow and vertical winding functions (dynamic characteristics). The parameters studied in this study for the dynamic and thermodynamic analysis of the tropical rotation of 1948 generally included the mean sea level pressure, geopotential heights, zonal and meridional components of wind, convection available potential energy, convective stabilization index, vertical velocity, relative vorticity, Sea surface temperature, humidity, and cloud cover levels which are drawn from the European Center for Medium Forecast Scale (ECMWF) with spatial resolution of 0.75 applying GRADS software. The study of combinational maps of 500 milligrams of geopotential heights and vorticity advection on the first day of the cyclone (1948/06/05) indicates the presence of a very strong low-altitude center with seven closed curves on the Arabian Sea. The most inner curve of this low-altitude center has the lowest elevation with 5650 geopotential meters height and the maximum vorticity advection and downright negative velocity of 10 and 0.5 Pascal to seconds, respectively. The above-mentioned Jetstream map with a maximum speed of 16 m / s, which covers the east of the center of the altitude, contributes to the greater divergence of this system. The formation of a very strong negative eddy in the 500-mb equilibrium also indicates intense instability at the site of the tropical cyclone and is actually a factor in the formation and reinforcement of such cyclones .The above-mentioned low altitude continues its cyclonic rotation at the level of 850 mb with two closed curves, and the maximum vorticity advection and downright negative velocity of 16 and 0.6 Pascal to second, respectively, due to the presence of lower level radar with a maximum speed of 20 m / s on the south side and similarly, in the south-east, it continued to circulate more rapidly at a rate higher than 500 mb, which results in the formation of the first pressure packet with a central pressure of 997.5 mb on the sea surface. The high amount of specific humidity of 850 mb from the start of cyclone activity (12 g / kg), and the increase in this parameter in the next days of activity reaches 14 g / kg and also 4.5 g / kg at 500 millimeter equilibrium point to the high humidity at the location of the low-pressure center and the optimum conditions for the extraction of heavy rainfall in the eye wall of cyclone. Cloud cover maps also indicate a climber air density of up to 500 mb and the formation of a cloud at different levels of the atmosphere at the site of the formation of tropical rotation. The results show that the formation of the lower Jetstream, along with the tropical cyclone event (from 05 to 08 of 1948) affecting the southern coast of Iran, has been able to create severe air mass divergences in the left half of the nucleus and following this mechanism and the relationship between this velocity nucleus and the lower levels of the atmosphere and the sea level in the vertical direction, with the convergence of the mass, has been accompanied with the reduction of density and, finally, the reduction of pressure and the formation of turbulence, as the first ring for the development of tropical cyclones; therefore, the altitude of 850 mb and jet stream located at this elevation affected by the high-rise phenomenon on the western shores of the ocean (sometimes in the east of Madagascar) is considered as one of the most effective dynamic factors for the birth and development of this tropical cyclone on the southern coast of Iran. The tropical cyclone was formed from June 5 to June 8, 1948, at approximately 16 degrees north and 60 degrees east on the Arabian Sea. And, in general, the interaction between high pressure tongues on Saudi Arabia, Tibet and Iran, and the tropical cyclones has prepared the conditions for the activity and displacement of the tropical rotation. Previous studies of tropical storms have considered other synthetic systems, such as cyclones over Europe, and the integration of cyclones on the Mediterranean and Oman, as well as the displacement of the axis of tropical cyclones at middle and upper levels of the atmosphere affective in the escalation and displacement of the storm. It is also believed that the southern coast of Iran is also effective, and in general, less attention is paid to the causes of the development of the storm. Key words:Tropical Cyclone, dynamic and thermodynamic analysis, low level jet stream, Thermodynamic parameters, Southern coast of Iran}, Keywords = {Tropical Cyclone, Analysis of the dynamic and thermodynamic, Low level jet stream, Thermodynamic parameters, Southern coasts of Iran.}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {97-112}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.97}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2576-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2576-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {shayesteh, fary}, title = {The role of tropospheric vertical anomalies in rainfall solid Case study: the hazard of hail in Kermanshah}, abstract ={The role of tropospheric vertical anomalies in rainfall solid Case study: the hazard of hail in Kermanshah Climate risks is one of the Types of hazards that damages human communities such as the phenomenon of hail, in the micro-scale, it causes financial losses and casualties. Hail is associated to the atmospheric elements and geo-location factors. Whenever weather conditions and appropriate physical processes are combined with geo-location creates and intensifies this phenomenon. Losses resulted from hail has been more effective in the agricultural sector and in the effect of damaging the crops When growth and budding. However, it disorders in other sectors such as, blemishing residential buildings, Losing large and small animals also, damaging to the aircraft flight and its components. Hail considerable damage in Kermanshah province every year so that Farmers insure their crops against this Phenomenon and the government will incur heavy costs for damage that is inflicted on the sector of activity. Research methodology The current weather data has been used with 3-hour intervals in the statistical period of 65 years (1951 to 2016) from synoptic stations of Kermanshah Province that includes the stations of Kermanshah, West Islamabad, Ravansar, Kangavar, West Gilan, and Sar-e-Pole-Zahab. Among the 100 present weather code, Codes 99, 96, 91, 90, 89, 87 and 27 have been considered that including hail phenomenon by varying intensities and includes any appearance of this phenomenon in Hours scout and three hours earlier. Then, based on the above code, Were coded in Excel to identifies Codes 96, 91, 90, 89, 87 and 27 When entering from the Meteorological Data To the desired program among Group VII of the data, And when the written code, were identified, Hail days were marked. Given that in this study Hail is studied regarding the synoptic conditions and temperature anomalies. Therefore, for the synoptic situation, Pressure data, vorticity, Special moisture, Components U and V, Omega transverse profile And outgoing longwave radiation, And for the temperature anomaly, Temperature and isothermal anomalies components Were getting from esrl.noaa.gov/psd site And using the software Grads were drawn maps for a selected day To determine the formation of hail. Commentaries Results The frequency of occurrence of hail has reached 187 in the period 65 years in Kermanshah province. This phenomenon generally occurs from mid-September to mid-June. The most number has been in Kermanshah station and the Least in Sar-Pol-Zahab station. April has had the highest number of hail frequencies in Kermanshah province and the greatest losses in the month related to the agricultural sector. Therefore, Select System hail seems essential to examine how the temperature anomalies and the formation of hail in the month. On the day of the event, trough hail has been formed in the East Mediterranean.Wrying the trough axis From North East to South West resulted in cold air from high latitudes to the East of the Mediterranean. The establishment of trough in the middle and low pressure level in sea level and its following Convergence in the balance has created positive omega until balance of 200 hPa and most serious it is at the level of 400 hPa. Negative omega has maintained its association from ground surface until High levels in the study area. The airflow of vorticity balance 1000 and 500 Hpa Suggests vorticity positive settlement area on the case study. Establishment of short wave in the vicinity of the study area and intensifying ascending conditions also Prolong Positive trough conditions from surface of Earth until 500hpa balance have been The necessary dynamic conditions for Hail in this day. Special moisture and wind Vector with 700hpa balance of Moisture transfer has been done by two opposite vorticity system. Trough rotary motion Based on the Mediterranean and along the Red Sea on the one hand and Moving anticyclone over the Arabian Sea And the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea on the other, have conveyed Moisture of all moisture sources from The seas around to The study area. Also OLR anomalies for the hail event day indicates being Negative in the study area and the sharp decline of Outgoing longwave in this day Compared to its long-term average And hence the conditions of cloudiness and the formation and intensification of convection has been provided. 1000 hpa positive anomaly 2 ° is representative the Higher than the average temperature conditions and in the 500hpa anomaly balance Minus 2 degrees Celsius is representative Lower than normal temperatures in the balance. These factors aggravate the vertical temperature gradient in the study area these days. 20+ degrees Celsius the Isothermal curve and -20 ° C. Respectively, the levels of 1000 and 500 Drawn to the area of study And has created a large temperature difference Between the upper and lower levels. Keywords: Synoptic analysis, Hail hazard, Tropospheric anomalies, Vorticity, Kermanshah Province}, Keywords = {Synoptic analysis, Hail hazard, Tropospheric anomalies, Vorticity, Kermanshah Province}, volume = {5}, Number = {1}, pages = {113-126}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.1.113}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2677-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2677-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {savari, moslem}, title = {Sustainability, Sustainable Livelihoods, Climate Risks, Small Scale -Farming}, abstract ={Farmers frequently cope with risks due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions. Population growth, changes in agricultural policies, environmental regulations and the degradation of natural resources such as soil and water also present farmers with numerous challenges. Although farmers have experience in coping with a certain degree of uncertainty, increased climate variability and changes may cause severe problems. Drought in particular is a climatic disaster that creates substantial costs for farmers and affects their agricultural systems extensively. Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards, making the arid and semi-arid regions of the world vulnerable. Although drought has not been well documented, the resource-dependent sectors such as agriculture are the most vulnerable to the impact of this phenomenon. A review of the long-term annual precipitation trends indicated that drought had a worldwide return frequency of every 20e30 years. However, in the last 50 years, some countries such as Iran and Bangladesh have experienced approximately 27 and 19 drought events, respectively. Therefore, for arid and semiarid regions, drought is a recurrent feature that could lead to the loss of crop production, food shortages and starvation) if not managed appropriately. According drought impacts could be managed at macro (national), meso (local) and micro (village and household) levels. However, the micro-level management (i.e., what the farmers do in response to drought) is of great importance. A review of the studies of farmers’ decision-making in response to climate variability revealed that most research has focused on the decision event and not on the entire process argued that the wrong assumption of farmers’ homogeneity neglected different aspects of decision-making in response to drought. Also indicated that farmers made different decisions when utilizing the same data. Additionally, many studies have focused on single strategies that were used to mitigate drought. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the combination and sequence of coping strategies that are used to mitigate drought. Concentrating on the decision-making process could help policy makers assess the needs and prioritize interventions, as well as enable farmers to efficiently manage drought. Farmers utilize various strategies to reduce the impacts of drought. Some strategies have a limited impact on drought mitigation. Some practices also increase farmers’ woes during drought. In addition, when resources (natural, physical and financial) are scarce, the need for an accurate appraisal of coping strategies becomes acute. Therefore, outcome prediction (i.e., the efficacy of mixed coping strategies) is a critical issue in drought management. Consequently, this study is concerned with the description of the farmers’ decision-making process and decision outcomes. First, the impacts of drought on the agricultural production in arid or semi-arid countries, specifically Iran, are described. Then, the farmers’ decision-making process during drought is explained then, the farmers’ decision-making process during drought is explained. The focus then shifts to the design and explanation of the proposed research methodology, followed by an analysis of the results and concluding remarks. Approximately $84 million. Under such conditions, Iran imported significant amounts of wheat and rice, and it seemed likely that continuous drought would lead to import expansion. Furthermore, dairy production also experienced a decrease of 8.2 percent during this same period. The drought of 2008e2012 was one of the worst on record. This drought drastically reduced the cultivation area, even in irrigated lands. During this time, the river waters fell to critical levels. Most of the traditional ground water irrigation systems (qanats) either completely dried up or experienced a reduced water release. In the central and southern regions of Iran, the cultivation areas were reduced by half during the spring-summer seasons due to these low water levels. During this period, farmers experienced rising costs due to the use of management strategies such as deepening wells and constructing water storage in order to cope with the drought. Other economic impacts that were experienced by the farmers were increased livestock feeding expenses, increased interest rates, and increased debts. These depleted resources and diminished incomes forced those in rural areas to migrate to the cities in pursuit of jobs. Important factors, as previously mentioned, are livelihood risks that so far have not been given much attention so this research was to Patterns Design Out of the Challenges of Livelihood Sustainability of Small-Scale Farmers in Drought Conditions in Kurdistan Province. The statistical population consisted of small farmers in Kurdistan province who were in drought conditions. The research paradigm is qualitative in two ways: Grounded theory and phenomenology.  Using theoretical sampling, 29 of them were selected for study. The research data were collected using a deep interview and group discussion and analyzed with three open, axial and selective coding methods. The results of the research in the phenomenology of Livelihood Behavior Behaviors included 16 primary codes and classified into adaptive behaviors, resiliency and non-response. Also, the results of studying the livelihood sustainability challenges of small scale farmers in the form of foundation data methodology included 61 initial codes. Finally, in order to design a model out of the challenges of the stabilization of 9 mechanisms (economic, productivity, production factors, services and facilities, Education and information, management and capacity building, culture, technology, formations, and equilibrium) were designed based on the challenges of sustainability and incorporated into the Strauss model.    Keyword: Sustainability, Sustainable Livelihoods, Climate Risks, Small Scale -Farming      }, Keywords = {Sustainability, Sustainable Livelihoods, Climate Risks, Small Scale -Farming}, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {1-18}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2781-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2781-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Torkashvand, Mohammad Ghasem}, title = {Modeling of Atmospheric Regional Circulation for Event of Most Severe Spring Dust Storms on West of Iran}, abstract ={   Dust phenomenon is a natural occurrence that occurs widespread in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, especially in the sub-equatorial latitudes. This phenomenon is among the greatest environmental problems in the world. The release of this destructive climatic phenomenon in a scattered manner in the atmosphere varies in size, time and concentration. Since this phenomenon is influenced by the specific conditions of climate effects, its effects may continue to be as close as 16,000 kilometers from the source and cause abnormal environmental effects on the one hand, and numerous damage to agriculture, industry, transportation and telecommunication systems on the other hand. Dust storms, as an atmospheric destructive phenomenon, have created adverse environmental impacts for the west of Iran and caused many problems for the inhabitants of this region. Therefore, studying this phenomenon is necessary in order to achieve a comprehensive approach to deal with it. The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the instantaneous atmospheric conditions, conduction and source of the dust storms with a synoptic modeling approach. In this study, in order to investigate the dust storms structure in the southwest of Iran, the dust storm occurred on May 15, 2015 was selected. The reason for choosing the present day, based on reports from the Observatory and Monitoring Center of Ilam’s Environmental Protection Office, was the most polluted day of 2015, so the amount of aerosol recorded was 1200 µg/m3 in the air of Mehran City. To analyze the storm structure, a combination study was performed using NECP/NCAR reanalyzed digital data and output of dynamic and regional models. The first group consisted of three regional models of NAAPS, DREAM 8b and NMMB/BSC, and the second group included HYSPLIT dynamic model with backward method. NECP / NCAR data are also used in the synoptic analysis of the storm. The average slope of air pressure in the sea level at the time of the dust storm in the west of Iran has increased and a high pressure difference of 20 hPa is observed between east and west of Iran, which is accompanied by a high pressure difference and severe winds in the southwestern borders of Iran. Also, the surface moisture flux of the soil has fallen sharply for the day of the storm occurrence in the study area. High advection in the Western part of Iran has been accompanied by a change in the density and mass of the air with heat, resulting in very rapid and intense air rotational movements around the Earth's surface; on the other hand, the coincidence of the positive and negative vorticity in a single significant amount in the formation of the lower level jet has caused the emergence of the dust storm to occur in the mentioned day. On the day of the dust storm, the orbital component of the wind speed was Western, and its velocity was more than 5 meters per second on the western borders of the country. The meridian component of the wind speed was also Southern. Therefore, the effect of present pattern on west of Iran during the day of storm dust has played a significant role. The optical depth index and surface dust concentration index in the NAAPS model have shown that dust concentrations ranged from 640 to 1260 µg/m3 to the west. Besides, the amount of sulfate in the region was estimated to be between 1 and 2 µg/m3. Comparison of the output of DREAM Bb and NMMB / BSC models showed an increase in concentration values per Dust surface unit on the day of storm occurrence. Based on the results of two models of DREAM Bb and NMMB / BSC in the case of western dust in Iran, it can be concluded that the effect of local factors and close proximity to the centers of the dust source have a significant role in the occurrence of present phenomena for western Iran. The simulation of the Dust storm direction with the HYSPLIT dynamic model and the backward method has shown two routes of dust entering the west of the country; a) Northwest - Southeast; b) West-East direction. The main origins of the first route, the northwest of Iraq and the east of Syria, and the second route were the center of Iraq. Keywords: Spring dust storms, Regional modeling, HYSPLIT model, particles optical depth, West Iran  }, Keywords = {Keywords: Spring dust storms, Regional modeling, HYSPLIT model, particles optical depth, West Iran}, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {19-34}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.19}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2736-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2736-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Ahmadi, Hamzeh and FallahGhalhari, Gholamabass and Baaghideh, Mohammad and Amiri, Mohammaf Esmail}, title = {Investigating the effects of climate change on the pattern of heat accumulation in apple trees cultivation areas in Iran during the future period}, abstract ={Climate change stand as the most important challenge in the future. Horticulture is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors to the climate change. Climate change and global warming will endanger the production of agricultural products and food security. Because of required longer time to fruit production, fruit trees are heavily susceptible to damage from climate change. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on thermal accumulation pattern in Apple tree cultivation regions of Iran based on the outputs of new CMIP5 models and radiative forcing (RCP) scenarios. The present study was carried out using a statistical-analytical method. In this study, two types of data was used; baseline data for past period and model output simulation data for the future period. Observation data for baseline period for 53 weather station was extracted from the Iran meteorological organization (IMO). Afterwards, the data for the upcoming period up to the 2090 horizon were processed using the HadGEM2-ES model from the series of CMIP5 models of the MarksimGCM database based on the radiative forcing scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The future period will be refined in the mid-term (2020-2055) and the far future (2056-2090). Afterwards, based on the thermal thresholds, thermal accumulation in Apple tree cultivation areas in Iran processed. The results showed that based on statistical indices on the output of CMIP5 models, the output of the HadGEM2.ES general circulation model is accompanied by fewer simulation errors in illustrating the climate change of the future period than the observation or baseline period. In fact, based on the evaluation criteria or error measures, this model shows a higher compliance with observational data. In general, the model has a lower accuracy than precipitation in the simulation of rainfall, which is due to the complexity of the precipitation process as well as the structure of the climatic models. One of the fundamental issues that have emerged in recent decades is the change in the potential status or heat accumulation of different regions due to the increase in air temperature. The results showed that due to temperature increase, in the mid and far future heat accumulation will increase compared to the baseline period in Apple tree cultivation areas. Increasing of heat accumulation will reduce the length of the Apple tree growth period, and in fact the Apple tree will complete its vegetative and reproductive cycles sooner. This condition will have negative effects on the quality, taste and color of the Apple varieties. For example, according to the RCP8.5 scenario in the physiological threshold of the apple tree 4.5 C° , in the mid term (2020-2055) and far future (2056-2090) will be 1132 and 2171 active degree days respectively compared baseline period. These conditions equivalent to the  51% and 42% respectively. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, these conditions will be 390 and 680 active degree day, equivalent to 9.3% and 15.1%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. The results showed that the heat accumulation in Apple tree cultivation areas in the future period will increase compared to the baseline period. One of the most important effects of climate change on the Apple tree  cultivation will be due to increased heat accumulation in the upcoming period. Increasing the heat accumulation will reduce the length of fruit tree growth period, and in fact the fruit tree will complete its vegetative and reproductive cycles earlier. According to these conditions, the areas of Apple tree cultivation in the future will be extended to higher regions. These conditions are important for cold regios fruit tree such as Apple tree, in facr increase in heat accumulation will reduce the length of the growing season and, as a result, reduce the quality and yield of the fruit. Based on the spatial distribution, the least heat accumulation in the highlands, especially Northwest and central Alborz, will occured. In natural landscapes of low elevations, valleys and plains in the Northeast, central Southern part of the Zagros and around Lake Urmia, higher heat accumulation will occured in the future. Therefore, one of the effects of climate change on fruit trees will be due to increased heat accumulation in the upcoming period. Increasing the potential or heat accumulation will reduce the growth period of the fruit trees, in fact, the fruit trees will complete their vegetative and reproductive cycles sooner.      }, Keywords = {Apple tree, Climate Change, CMIP5 models, Thermal accululation, RCP.}, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {35-54}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.35}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2766-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2766-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Nickandish, Armaghan and Dashti, Soolmaz and Sabzghabaei, GholamRez}, title = {Kharkheh National Park and Protected Area Environmental Risks Assessment Using TOPSIS Method}, abstract ={The most important role that the managed areas will play to attain sustainable development goals would be protecting ecosystem and genetic diversity to achieve the scientific, aesthetics, social and economic potential benefits in future. Proper management of protected areas requires a full understanding of the present conditions, detailed and exact implementation, planning, regular monitoring and risks changes detection in protected areas to understand how are they, how they would effect on nature, recovery and rehabilitation processes and to protect them in long term is very important. Karkhe National Park and protected area is one of the most valuable and most strategic areas in the country that can be protected. This study aimed to identify and analyze threatening risks in Karkhe protected area and national park. The Study area is located with an area of ​​15828 hectares (sum of national park and protected area) on both side of Karkhe river in Khuzestan province. In this research based on field visits and using the Delphi technique, that there were 15 experts and specialist joint it, 28 risks in two terms of the natural and anthropogenic environment (physicochemical, biological, economical, social and cultural) are identified. Then to order the identified risks, The TOPSIS method was used according to the three fectors, severity, probability and sensitivity of the host environment. The results showed that the risk of lack of conservative officer by closeness coefficient (CC) 1 is the highest risk in the area and The risk of soil pollution with heavy metals by closeness coefficient 0.149 is the lowest priority. The most obtain risks has been socio-economic risks. After ordering the environmental risks was found that existing risks in the region has been in a considerable level. Finally, strategies to control risk in the region was presented. As a result, management solutions should be provided to reduce, control, or eliminate the most important risks. In the meantime, strengthening the existing environmental laws and the necessary guarantees for their implementation seems necessary.}, Keywords = {Risk assessment, protected areas, national parks, TOPSIS, Karkhe, Khuzestan.}, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {55-72}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.55}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2627-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2627-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Pakbaz, Hajar and Khosravi, Mahmood and Tavousi, Tagi and Mahmoudi, Paym}, title = {Analysis of Spatial Patterns of Discomfort Index (DI) Classes in Iran}, abstract ={As 7 Stations include; Ardebil, Sarab, Shahrekord, Ahar, Takab, Zanjan, and Saghez were experiments on average every year less than 30 days with thermal stress. From these 7 stations, Ardebil and Sarab regions, having 3 and 7 days with thermal stress, respectively, have the least amount of days with heat stress. All the days with the heat stresses obtained for these stations have been the days of the first class of heat stress map, and all of them were randomly distributed over the warm period of the year. But in contrast to this stations that had the fewest days of thermal stress, southern Iranian stations, especially those stationed at the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman Sea coasts, were the most frequent days of heat stress. The two Jask and Chabahar stations with the annual average of 304 and 301 days, with the highest thermal stress, were the most frequent regions of Iran. The lower latitudes, lower elevation, higher temperatures and relative humidity are factors that make the conditions for having the most frequencies of days with heat stress in this part of Iran. The spatial pattern of five classes this index also show different patterns in comparison with each other so that as all stations in Iran experience at least 3 days of thermal stress in the first class during the year. But with increasing intensity classes, the number of stations that experience the conditions of these five classes over a year will be reduced. As for the second class, 16.2% of the stations, for the third class, 55.4% for the fourth class, 83.7 %, and finally for the fifth class, 90.5% of stations, do not experience comfort in any way during one year. Finally, with regard to the important role of the elevations in the spatial distribution, the relationship between the total frequency of days with thermal stress and elevation was modeled using classical linear regression model. The results of this model showed that per 100 meters above sea level, 9 days from the total frequency of days associated with Iran's thermal stress is reduced. This downward trend is such that there is no thermal stress in Iran at 2300 m above sea level. In other words, the height of 2300 meters is the elevation border between the occurrence and absence of days with thermal stress in Iran.  }, Keywords = {Thermal stress, Temperature, Relative humidity, Discomfort Index (DI), spatial analysis }, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {73-90}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.73}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2745-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2745-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {hoseinzadeh, mohammad mahdi and imeni, sepide}, title = {Estimating Height runoff by using curve number method and Arc- CN Runoff tool in Afjeh Catchment}, abstract ={  In Iran, there is a general risk of runoff and flood, and since this country has a dry to semi-arid climate, its predominant rainfall is not evenly distributed in terms of time and place. Routine runoff at the earth's surface can lead to risks such as groundwater abatement, social issues such as population migration, erosion and loss of soil fertility, sedimentation in reservoirs and water quality in rivers. Also, damage to the agricultural sector, subsidence, the destruction of residential buildings and the reconciliation of the urban, rural and nomadic order are all examples of controversy about the risks that runoff and flooding are due to. The severity of these hazards in the Afje watershed is due to the geographical location, the specific climate, geology and pond factors, and a large volume of flooding every year causes the destruction of residential areas, agricultural lands and many financial and financial losses.                             In this research, data collection was carried out through library and field resources. The main tools of this research were topographic map of 1: 25000 which was used by GIS software for the separation of layers and determining the boundaries of the basin; Land use maps and user data and hydrologic groups of the study area were also used to estimate runoff height using curve number method and Arc-CN Runoff instrument. Then Arc-CN Runoff tool was used to prepare layers and curve number map (CN). Finally, the runoff height of the studied basin was prepared in the GIS software. Soil Hydrology Group: According to the studies, in terms of breadth and extent, the Hydrologic Groups C has the largest area with relatively high runoff potential. By matching the map of Hydrologic Soil Groups and the mineralogical units of the basin it can be stated that the green mass tuff and thick conglomerates are in the hydrologic group D, and the thick layers of green tuff, marl and sandstone in the hydrologic group C and the rocky layer of limestone in The hydrological group B is located. Land use: The hydrological status of the land and types of uses in the Afje watershed basin are as follows. Most of the catchment area is covered by medium-sized meadows, which comprises 53.77% of the basin area and is located in the hydrological group C with relatively high potential of runoff production. The rock outcrops are in the next rank, which is in the hydrological group D. Runoff curve number (CN): Land use maps and soil hydrologic groups were combined and extracted for each curve number range (CN) and CN map was prepared. The Afjeh basin has a curtain number of 66 to 100. The highest value of the curve number is 100, which is related to the outflow of the Afjeh watershed basin, which is practically inert, so all precipitation becomes runoff. The Afjeh basin has a curtain number of 66 to 100. The highest value of the curve number is 100, which is related to the outflow of the Afjeh watershed basin, which is practically Impervious, so all precipitation becomes a runoff. In fact, the curve number 100 in stone is 5.59 square kilometers from the area of the Afjeh watershed. But gardens and Agricultural land have the lowest CN (curve numbers 66 to 77) in the Afjeh basin, and include 4.53 square kilometers of basin area. Therefore, the lower parts have a lower CN than the upstream of basin.                The runoff height in the four seasons was calculated based on the daily precipitation values occurring at mentioned times. Based on the average daily rainfall of spring with a value of 10.79 mm and runoff classification, in a small part of the gardens in catchment area due to high permeability of the soil, 2.54 mm of precipitation has become runoff, although it is due to stone due to The Impervious of the surface, 10.66 mm of precipitation, turned into runoff. According to the studies carried out and according to the potential maps of runoff production in the Afje watershed, in the garden with the value of the curve number 66 and daily precipitation (for example, in the winter with a rainfall of 4.04 mm), the runoff height is 0.76 mm And the peak of discharge of 0.47 cubic meters per second And has the lowest runoff potential. In winter, the upstream sediments of the basin with curve number 100, runoff height of 3.81 mm and peak of discharge of 2.65 cubic meters per second and almost all rainfall becomes runoff. Therefore, the shortage of water resources, the presence of dry and semi-arid climates in the country and the achievement of sustainable development leads to the optimal use of water resources.   keywords: hazard, Arc- CN Runoff, GIS, high runoff, catchment Afjeh  }, Keywords = {hazard, Arc- CN Runoff, GIS, high runoff, catchment Afjeh}, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {91-106}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.91}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2400-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2400-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {safarianzengir, vahid and zenali, Batol and JafarihasiKennedy, Yusuf and jafarzadeh, leyl}, title = {Investigation of dust and evaluation of its prediction in Ardebil province using ANFIS model}, abstract ={Investigation and evaluation of dust and microstrip phenomena is one of the important values ​​in the management of climate and environmental hazards in the Middle East, especially in the arid, western, southern and central parts of Iran. Methods and plans for studying this phenomenon and its management are of great importance and great value. According to studies on dust phenomena based on predictive methods with low error, contradictory and low, the evaluation of the characteristics of dust and its prediction will reduce the irreparable damage that results from it. To do this, in this research, dust monitoring and assessment of its prediction in Ardebil province was performed using the ANFIS model. The data used in this study is the amount of dust in the relevant statistical period to each station from its inception until 2016. The dust phenomenon was used in the observed and predicted time intervals to assess the dust and the ANFIS model for predicting dust phenomena. According to the findings of this study, in the monitoring and prediction of dust situation, the frequency of occurrence in observed years in the maximum amount of dust in Ardabil station with 74% and the lowest in Mashgin is 8%. In the years to come, the maximum amount of dust at Khalkhal Station was 61.67% and the lowest was 10% in Mashgin. In terms of amount of dust, the Ardebil station is more intense than the rest of the stations. In terms of the severity of drought that has been studied, each of the 5 stations studied has a dust concentration of more than 74%. For the 5 stations studied for the next 18 years using manually generated codes, the stations were divided in time series, with the highest average error of training at Pars-Abad Moghan Station with 0.091% and less The highest value was obtained at the Grammy station with a value of 0.001%.  }, Keywords = {Dust prediction, ANFIS model, Ardabil province, Possibility of prediction.}, volume = {5}, Number = {2}, pages = {107-124}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.2.107}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2771-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2771-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Karimi, Mostafa and Kaki, Seyfollah and Rafati, Somayeh}, title = {Iran\'s Future Climate Conditions and Hazard in Climate Research}, abstract ={Global temperatures have increased in the past 100 years by an average of 0.74°C (IPCC, 2013), with minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximum temperatures and winter temperatures increasing faster than summer temperatures (IPCC, 2013). Total annual rainfall tends to increase at the higher latitudes and near the equator, while rainfall in the sub-tropics is likely to decline and become more variable (Asseng et al., 2016). Considering probability of occurrence climate change and its hazardous impacts, it seems essential to clarify future climate. General Circulation Models is widely used to assess future climate and its probable changes. Although the outputs of these models are not appropriate for small-scale regions because of its coarse resolution. Thus, statistical or dynamical techniques are used to downscaling the outputs of these models using observed data in weather stations. Despite the fact that frequent researches has done in relation with climate and climate change, but it is unclear yet future climate, especially climate change, in Iran. The goal of this study was to present the results of climate change predictions which has been done so far in Iran, in order to help prospective studies in this field. This step can be important to consider new questions and challenges. In this study, we assessed future climate change in Iran using results of statistical downscaling studies of atmospheric-oceanic General Circulation Model’s outputs. To do this, studies on prediction of precipitation and temperature parameters in Iran by different emission scenarios, atmospheric-oceanic General Circulation Model’s outputs and statistical downscaling techniques were gathered. Then a comprehensive view about Iran's future climate and specifically the climate changes presented by descriptive-content based analysis and comparison of their results. Used downscaling techniques in these researches were included: LARS-WG, SDSM, ASD, Clim-Gen and used General Circulation Models were: HADCM3, BCM2, IPCM4, MIHR, CGCM3, CCSM4 and finally used emission scenarios were A1B, A1, A2, B1, B2, RCP4.5. Based on climatically geographical differences in Iran, the results discussed separately in six different regions across Iran. The results of various regions are different because of usage of different models and different climatological and geographical conditions. These models simulate temperature more accurate than precipitation, because of more variability and temporal discontinuity of the precipitation relative to temperature. Assessment of results in 30-year periods from 2011 to 2099 showed that in North West of Iran (Ardebil, Azarbayejan- Sharqi and Azarbayejan- Qarbi provinces), precipitation will be decreasing, decreasing- oscillating, decreasing- transitional and temperature will be increasing. Decreasing- transitional trend, in other words decrease precipitation in cold seasons and increase of it in warm seasons, lead to a decrease in the snow occurrence and an increase in the rainfall occurrence. Thus, it can affect the frequency of floods occurrence. In west and southwest region of Iran precipitation has been predicted to have different changes in various sections of it. It will be decreasing-oscillating in Kermanshah and Kordestan provinces and oscillating in Hamedan province. Precipitation will increase in Lorestan and finally it expected to decrease in Khoozestan, Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari, and Ilam. However Temperature will rise across this region. In south and south east region of Iran (Fars, Hormozgan, Kerman and sistan-va-Baloochestan provinces), precipitation will be decreasing, decreasing-oscillating, oscillating and increasing-oscillating. Also in this region, temperature expected to increase similar to other regions. In east and north‌ east of Iran (Khorasan Shomali, Khorasan Razavi and Khorasan Jonobi provinces), temperature predicted to be increasing-oscillating, that it is different with other regions. Changes in precipitation will be oscillating and decreasing-oscillating. In the northern coasts of Iran (Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan provinces), precipitation changes will be decreasing and increasing-oscillating and temperature changes expected to be increasing and increasing-oscillating. Thus, it expected to increase heat wave, drought, and aridness condition as the results of these changes. Precipitation changes in south of Alborz region and center of Iran (Semnan, Tehran, Qazvin, Markazi, Esfahan and Yazd provinces), will be decreasing, oscillating, increasing-oscillating. Also temperature will be increasing in this region. Considering the decreasing trend of precipitation and the increasing trend of temperature in the most of Iran, it is probable to increase the occurrence of climatic and environmental hazards such as flood, drought and heat waves in the future. These events can have serious effects on water resources, agriculture and tourism, especially in regions such as Iran where have sensitive environment.}, Keywords = {Climate Change, Climatic hazards, Statistical Downscaling, General Circulation Models, Iran}, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {1-22}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2708-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2708-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Ghanbari, Abolfazl and PashanejhadSilab, Ehs}, title = {Spatial Assessment of Regional Environmental Vulnerability for Environmental Planning in the Eastern Region of Urmia Lake}, abstract ={     Environment, development and sustainability are the three significant issues of worldwide concern. Environmental vulnerability and assessment of natural and anthropogenic activities impacts represent a comprehensive evaluation approach. The main purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive and novel framework in order to environmental vulnerability assessment using by spatial data and techniques. The method of this research is analytical-descriptive. The basic premise is that the finding of this study can be applied in the local planning system and policy making process of environmental conservation particularly to cope with rapid environmental change. The environmental vulnerability is defined and governed by four factors: hydro-meteorology signatures, environmental attributes, human activities and natural hazard. Based on data availability and vulnerability status of different areas, there is no general rule for selecting how many variables are required to assess the environmental vulnerability. In this study, 18 variables were taken into account and organized into four aforementioned groups.  The process of environmental vulnerability index is proposed to integrate AHP approach, remote sensing indices and GIS techniques. The environmental vulnerability showed distinct spatial distribution in the study area. Furthermore, the distribution of heavy and very heavy vulnerability patterns mainly occur in low and medium lands where the human activities have been developing rapidly and is the nearest region to Urmia lake in the west region.}, Keywords = {Environmental Vulnerability Index(EVI), Environmental Planning, Spatial Assessment, Urmia Lake Eastern Region, GIS. }, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {23-40}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.23}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2635-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2635-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Azhdarymamooreh., khatereh and gandomkar, amir and kabiri, keiv}, title = {Prediction of Bleaching in Coral Reef Communities Using a Temperature Index(Southern and northern Persian Gulf)}, abstract ={Sea surface temperature is one of the most effective physical parameters that affects the health of coral reefs communities.High frequency of the bleaching phenomenon has extensively occurred in the Persian Gulf in the recent years due to the increase in temperature and increased changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) resulting in great mortality in the coral communities. The aim of this research is to determinate a temperature threshold which may function as a warning for the incidence anticipation of this phenomenon. Data on the variation of the SST that has been taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Information related to bleaching in the regions of the southern Persian Gulf was extracted from the published papers and reports. Each of these sources also has been extracted for a 35-year statistical course (1980-2015) and by the index of degree heating weeks (DHWs) determined for the same statistical course in this research for the assessment and anticipation of bleaching phenomenon. For reviewing of the work accuracy, Peirce Skill Score (PSS) technique was used to quantify the accuracy of previous and subsequent anticipations. According to the derived results, DHWs threshold for the study region was determined to be 7.13. the threshold 7.13 for DHW is suggested as a caution threshold for bleaching incidence in southern regions of the Persian Gulf that is whenever the values of weekly positive temperature DHW show number 7.13 and higher, there is an expectation of bleaching phenomenon incidence of corals for these regions. And the score of  PSS= 0.72 derived from the amounts of H= 7/8= 0.87 for the Hit rate and F= 4/26= 0.15 for the False alarm rate of the bleaching was obtained for the southern regions of Persian Gulf and study region. In northern regions of the Persian Gulf the threshold 5.3 for DHW is suggested as a caution threshold for bleaching incidence. The rate of pss = 0.62 derived from the   amounts of     (3/4 = 0.75) for   the  Hit rate   and ( 3/23 = 0.13) for the  False alarm rate of the  bleaching was obtained  for the northern regions of  Persian Gulf and study region. Difference in DHWs values of the south and north of Persian Gulf shows more resistance of the corals of south Persian Gulf against DHW changes and SST anomalies. Also the amounts of DHW alongside SST can help more completely to the anticipation of bleaching phenomenon.}, Keywords = {Bleaching, Coral reef, Persian Gulf, SST}, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {41-52}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.41}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2680-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2680-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Revealing the impact of changing land use of the annual spatiotemporal boundary layer height (Kermanshah Case Study)}, abstract ={Introduction Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), is the lowest part of the atmosphere. Its behavior is directly influenced by its contact with earth surface. On earth it usually responds to changes in surface radiative forcing in an hour or less. In this layer physical quantities such as flow velocity, temperature, moisture, etc., display rapid fluctuations (turbulence) and vertical mixing is strong. Above the ABL is the "free atmosphere" where the wind is approximately geostrophic  while within the ABL the wind is affected by surface drag and turns across the isobars. The land use/cover changes affecting the surface radiative forces lead to ABL spatio-temporal variation. The main object of this study is to analysis the association among ABL height and built-up spatial growth in Kermanshah city.   Data and methods Multi-temporal satellite images from Landsat imagery data for 1990 to 2015 series of sensors TM, and OLI (Landsat 5 and 8) were taken from USGS database. Data of the Atmospheric Boundary layer height (ABL height) for the city of Kermanshah also were taken during 1990- 2015 from ECMWF – Eran-Intrim website at 0.0125 ° spatial resolution. Firstly, we analysis the temporal trends of ABL height of Kermanshah in summer and winter using linear regression in 0.95 confidence level (P_value = 0.05). The built up area of Kermanshah has been extracted from TM and OLI images using supervised classification method and maximum likelihood classification(MLC) algorithm in GIS image analysis. The Pearson correlation analysis has been used to reveal the relationship between annual ABL height variation and built-up growth of Kermanshah.  Result The results of long term trend of Built up growth of Kermanshah that extracted using MLC algorithm as can be seen in figure 1 indicated that the built up area in Kermanshah has been growth by 1.02 square kilometer annually.According the figure 2, The results of annual trend of ABL height in summer and winter also reveals that in summer there is no significant trends in ABL height while in winter the significant increasing long term trend has been observed in ABL height.  }, Keywords = {Keywords: urban development boundary layer, microclimate, Kermanshah}, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {53-66}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.53}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2675-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2675-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {hasheminasab, sayedenegar and jafari, rez}, title = {Evaluation of Land Use Changes order to Desertification Monitoring Using Remote Sensing Techniques}, abstract ={Introduction Trend of increasing natural resource degradation in many parts of the world, is a serious threat to humanity. Desertification is one of the manifestations of the damage that has already suffered as a scourge of many countries, including developing countries are. At present, remote sensing is one of technologies with timeliness data and accuracy suitable for monitoring land use changes in the areas of natural resources. Desertification monitoring and tracking changes, which seeks to desertification that the change could be for any reason and also collect and analyze data from activities, projects, plans and programs that may desertification range condition assessment and reporting to provide them. The purpose of this study was to evaluate changes in land use on desertification monitoring using remote sensing techniques to the agricultural lands around zayandeh rood in the East region of Isfahan. materials and methods In this study, the image sensor of TM to date 1987, 1998, ETM+ to date 2002 and  OLI to date 2014 related to the Landsat 5,7 and 8 to obtain the land use map used and then was performed radiometric and geometric correction.Then was used the color combination, the main component analysis, vegetation index and supervised classification method for detection of complications and the maximum likelihood algorithm as the most appropriate method for supervised classification in classes 9 of land cover. After production the land use map correctness evaluating operations with calculation error matrix and then was performed detection operations for these maps. Finally, for desertification of monitoring, land use years 27 changes around zayandeh rood  using the comparison method  is paid changes to identify and was obtained the area of each use. Results and discussion For investigate the the process of desertification, land use changes in the period of 27 years. In order to select the appropriate bands in supplying the best color composite satellite images and operations classified in order to reconstruct the images, index optimization factor was applied. The results of accuracy assessment shows that For all the images above the 80% overall accuracy and Kappa statistics indicate that almost 80 percent. Generally good agreement between the classification and classes of users on the ground there. By comparing bit images specified land use changes in the period of 27 years, riverbank has the greatest changes during this period. So during these 27 years the river high Zayandehrood degradation, which could be due to the expansion of agricultural activities in rivers. This degradation is generally represents gradual drying of the river and go surrounding cultivated by farmers. This degradation process in the margins of the river and the gradual drying of the river towards the desertification situation in the region shows. Conclusion In year 27 time period, Zayandeh Rood neighboring rivers has changed dramatically, so 86.43% of neighboring rivers was destroyed due to the expansion of agricultural activities vicinity of the river and drying river. Another significant changes, loss of agricultural land is notable such that 64% of this land has been reduced compared to 1987. Of reasons for the loss of agricultural land will be noted the region drought and Zayandeh Rood river drying up and Low rainfall, land use change and the proximity of the region desert. Also, has become about hectares 324.99 Of salt marsh lands to agricultural land. Moreover, the developed urban areas to its development contributed agricultural land and rangeland. Bayer lands around Zayandeh Rood Increase and also in region of rangeland lands Low and has increased Bayer lands  and somewhat until agricultural land which inappropriate use of this land shows in order to the agricultural. That this is the desertification progress in the region. Generally desertification process in this period years 27 has been a growing trend.Therefore multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite data for enhancement, especially for desertification monitoring was large capability and classification after comparison method is helpful for determine the type and direction of changes occurred. Since the development of desertification, limited to a small area and is not recommended range is therefore more effective, in addition to work sheets, other sheets around the area also evaluate the process of desertification is to allow for planning and management in the field of combating desertification exist.}, Keywords = {desertification monitoring, land use, remote sensing, Isfahan East }, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {67-82}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.67}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2397-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2397-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Ahmadi, Mahmoud and Jafari, Farzane}, title = {Full routing and synoptic analysis A sample of studies of heavy rainfall systems in excess of 50 mm in southern Iran}, abstract ={Problem statement The occurrence of terrible floods due to climate change has caused much damages in different parts of the world in recent decades, and the effect of these changes is more pronounced in dry areas. Floods are the most common environmental damage. On average, 60 floods occur annually in Iran, with an average annual flood loss of 141 people, meaning more than 2 deaths per year per flood event. Research Methodology The study area consists of six stations located in Hormozgan, Kerman, Yazd, Kohgiluyeh, and Fars provinces. In this study, two types of ground and high data are used as follows: A) - Using daily rainfall data of the 44 years (1967-2014) statistical stations of the region obtained from the country's Meteorological Organization B) Use of high-level data. Includes revised data for geopotential heights, sea level pressure, wind direction, meridian wind, omega, and humidity, from the National Center for Environmental Excellence at Colorado. To conduct synoptic analysis, the circular environmental method was used; after observing the daily rainfall during the statistical period of all rainfall over 50 mm in selected stations of Yazd, Jiroft, Shiraz, Bandar Abbas, and Yasuj, 118 heavy rainfall events were investigated. After identifying and separating days, 105 observation systems were identified and analyzed. After the evaluation and control of the pressure maps of the sea of the systems of landing, 4 patterns were selected and identified. Explain and interpret the results The results showed that heavy precipitation occurred in the months of December, December, February, February, and November, respectively. Since November, with the retreat of high-performance dynamic systems to the southern latitudes and the influx of western winds from high latitudes on the area, conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall are provided. Most centers with 9 heavy rainwater systems of Sudan's lowland, 6 the moderate Sudanese-Mediterranean component of the Middle East has been on Iraq, and the four satellite systems have been the Mediterranean-Sudan-Mediterranean integration. The most frequent Sudanese pattern in 2-day continuity with 17 cases was Sudan-Mediterranean integration pattern with 7 cases in 3-day continuation, Sudanese-Mediterranean integration pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean, 4-day continuity with 7 events, and equidistant Mediterranean pattern The continuity of 2 to 4 days has been due to the increased load of Mediterranean systems ranging from 70 to 90 mm.  }, Keywords = {Synoptic, heavy rainfall, south of Iran, flood, system}, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {83-102}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.83}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2689-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2689-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {Rostami, Dana and Hosseini, Seyed As}, title = {Analysis and Tracking Dust Phenomenon in South and Southeast of Iran by using HYSPLIT Model and the Principles of Remote Sensing}, abstract ={ Dust is one of the environmental hazards and atmospheric phenomena familiar to residents of the southern and southeastern parts of the country. Which each year causes a lot of damages to various sectors such as environment, agriculture, health, transportation, facilities, and so on. Therefore, in this research, we investigated and identified the sources of dust in the area, the intensity and frequency of dust, its governing patterns and dust-free areas during the 30-year statistical period (1984-1984). The research method is a combination of statistical, synoptic and remote sensing analysis. The data used include the hourly data of 22 synoptic stations (8 times per 24 hours), CDC1 data up to 2006, and then GDAS data, temperature, wind direction and wind speed, geopotential height at different levels. In selecting the studied days, it was tried to select the selected samples with a duration of three days and more, the spatial expansion of at least 4 stations with horizontal vision less than 1000 meters. For this purpose, were used the characteristics of the 11.3 and 12-micrometric wavelengths of the wavelengths were used to visualize the dust on the MODIS images from the ENVI 5.2 software environment, to track the wind direction from the GDAS data in the HYSPLIT software environment and to study the maps of various atmospheric levels from Temperature, wind speed, wind speed and geopotential heights were used from GRADS software and weather data stations. The annual frequency of the occurrence of days with dusty phenomena in the study area showed that during the statistical period of 1984-2013, a total of 11616 days with dust was recorded with the 06 code for south and southeast of Iran at the stations study. Most days with the dust event at Zabol Station with 1136 days and the lowest occurrence occurred at Bandar Abbas Station with 171 days during the studied period. In general, the annual survey of the data shows that the phenomenon of dust in the stations study in the past has been high and very high; however, in recent years, it has been expanding more and more than the past, and has been growing. The results of the monthly and seasonal surveys showed that the summer and the months of June, July, August and May are the most frequent and most frequent, with a peak of 1000 meters, respectively, and December have the lowest dust incidence and Zabul and Zahedan station}, Keywords = {Iran, Remote Sensing, Dust, Synoptic, HYSPLIT}, volume = {5}, Number = {3}, pages = {103-119}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.103}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2759-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2759-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2018} } @article{ author = {azizi, عزیزی and afrakhteh, افراخته and azizpour, عزیزپور}, title = {Analytic of Spatial Conflict in the rural tourism area of Barghan}, abstract ={Land cover changes as a basic factor in environmental change act and has become a global threat. In this research, changes in land cover in rural tourism areas by neural networks, Markov chains in software ArcGIS, ENVI, Terrset using the TM and OLI satellite imagery, Landsat Satellite was surveyed for a period of 30 years for three periods of 1985, 2000, and 2015. The findings of the first stage show that land cover changes at the period 1985-2015, were classified in five class residential spaces, Commercial, Green, Empty and mountainous spaces and communication networks. In this study, the area of mountainous and empty spaces (13.25%) has decreased and in contrast, has decreased the amount of green spaces (6.221%), Residential (5.258%), commercial (1.264%) and communication networks (0.529%). Changing land cover as one of the most important environmental risks has been directly influenced by the Commodification phenomenon. Also, the findings of the prediction using the Markov-CA chain showed that with the continuation of the current and excessive loading on the ground, on the horizon of 2030, green cover (Agriculture, gardens and grassland, garden and residential)  and  wild land  and mountain cover have been reduced and to cover residential and commercial villas will be added. Based on research findings concluded that land cover changes in rural tourism areas in order to achieve more profits has become incompatible applications. This change in land cover, in addition to the economic, social impacts, has led to the formation of environmental hazards in the Bharang area. Developing tourism in the study area by removing agricultural land from the production cycle has led to an increase in urban activities and the formation of new activities (service, Residential Garden, residential villa) instead of traditional activities(agriculture and livestock) that are economical. And by loading too much ecological power tolerable land, while posing environmental hazards, causing incompatible activities next to each other, they do not match. Therefore, tourism, which gradually formed over the years and now it has become a part of rural texture, Spatial Conflict and heterogeneity two strains has created for them. Spatial Conflict created, due to changes in land cover and acceptance of incompatible activities that derive from human-nature relationships. This means that the rapid and unpredictable trend of tourism development, the rural landscape has encountered a problem and with changes in land cover, has led to inconsistencies between different activities and eventually has shaped the Spatial Conflict.  }, Keywords = {Spatial Conflict, Spatial confusion, land cover changes, rural tourism areas, Environmental hazards}, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {1-20}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.1}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2836-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2836-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Nikpour, Noorallah and negaresh, Hossein and Fotoohi, Samad and Hosseini, Seyed Zeynalabedin and Bahrami, Shahram}, title = {Monitoring the trend of vegetation changes one of the most important indicators of land degradation (in Ilam province)}, abstract ={Deforestation or vegetation degradation is one of the main drivers of global earth changes, which has significant consequences in terms of ecosystem performance and biodiversity conservation. One of the ways for studying vegetation changes as the most important indicator of land degradation is remote sensing. In this study, in order to monitor the vegetation degradation trend in Ilam Province.After obtaining and preparing the required data (410 downloaded images) in the ArcGIS and Surfer software, the multiplication, mosaic and georeferencing operations are made. Converting format of images into ASCII is the next stage of the study. By converting this format, the total number of 953552 pixels is studied within the range; after removing the lost and negative values, 328042 pixels are analyzed. Besides, using parametric statistical method of the classical linear regression and programming in R software, the trend of slope variations and significance of slope variations of vegetations are obtained for the 17-year period (2000-2016). Results of this study show that the focus of the highest trend of declining slope variations (trend of negative slop variations) is in the NDVI index across the western half of the studied area and the focus of the highest trend of increasing slope variations (trend of positive slop variations) is in the NDVI index in the center and east. Significance of the trend of slope variations also approves this claim. Thus, the focus of the highest trend of slope variations (negative) in the west and southwest of the studied area along with the highest trend of slope variations (positive) in the center and east is significant at the probable level of 0.05  }, Keywords = {Ilam, land degradation, trend, classical linear regression, MODIS, NDVI}, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {21-48}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.21}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2846-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2846-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {}, title = {Investigating the Changes in the Starting and the Ending of Effective Colds and Freezing in Agriculture under Climate Change Conditions in North - west of Iran}, abstract ={ Extended  Abstract Cold and frost is one of the most important climatic parameters in the agricultural climate, and the damage caused by them reduces the possibility of producing many agricultural and horticultural products in vulnerable areas. Cold and frost is one of the climatic hazards that annually causes damage to various activities. The agricultural sector is the most important part of the damage that is most seriously damaged by frost. Cold and frosty weather for many crops and gardens results in harmful and destructive consequences, in some years billions of rials damage farmers, farmers and, ultimately, the national interests of the country. Considering that the northwest region of Iran suffers a lot of financial losses each year due to atmospheric hazards especially cold and frost. Identification and zoning of areas with high potential of cold and frost hazard and prediction of their occurrence can provide valuable and valuable information for preventing and mitigating damages. In this study using HadCM3 global model under two scenarios A2 and B1 and The LARS-WG microscope model is dealt with this. It is important to check the time of occurrence and predict their future changes. For this purpose, general atmospheric circulation (GCM) models are designed that can simulate future climate parameters. In this study, the output data of the HadCM3 general circulation model under two scenarios of A2 and B1 were analyzed by LARS-WG statistical method in 21 synoptic stations located in northwest of Iran. The results of this study were based on the base period (1980-1989) and The 2020 decade (2030-2011) was evaluated for two climate variables: minimum temperature and maximum temperature. Then the history of the first and last frost and cold of autumn and spring was extracted and their date of occurrence was calculated in the future. The monthly average of the minimum temperature of the stations studied in the course of the 2020s and the base period shows that the temperature has been increased according to both scenarios and increased in all months and at most study stations compared to the base period. The maximum changes in the minimum temperature in the study area are based on the average scenarios in this decade related to Abhar, Ardebil, Khoy and Urumieh stations at 0.8 degrees Celsius; In fact, the minimum temperatures that occurred at these stations during the base period have not been observed in the next period and the heating process has shown that its rate in the region of the study area in the 2020s is between 0.4 and 0.8 It will be in the base period. The results indicate an increase in the monthly average of the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in the upcoming period to about 0.8 degrees Celsius. The results of the first and last glacial survey in the decade of 2020 indicate that the first glacial precipitate of autumn occurs between 2 and 9 days later, with the least change in the history of frost occurring in two stations of Qazvin and Meshkinshahr each with 2 The change day is relative to the base period. The last frost of late spring also will be 3-10 days earlier on the surface of the region. However, the duration of the ice free period will be reduced at all stations, which is the highest decrease for Khoy station with 16 days, then the stations of Urmia and Ardebil each Two with 14 days and the lowest decrease is due to Meshkinshahr station for 6 days. Based on the results of changes in the date of early ice ages, changes are less than the late frost. Based on this, the study of the condition of glaciers and serma in most of the studied stations shows that the first frost and autumn frost in the coming period will start earlier and the cold and the frostbite will end sooner. The least changes were observed in the south-east of the study area, Meshkinshahr and Sarab regions, and the most changes in the glacial period were related to Khoy, Urmia, Tabriz and Ahar areas. According to the results of most studied areas, averaging between 10 and 12 days decrease in length The ice age will experience the base course. The results indicate an increase in the monthly average of the minimum and maximum daily temperatures in the upcoming period to about 0.8 C. Based on this, the study of the condition of glaciers and serma in most of the studied stations shows that the first frost and autumn frost in the coming period will start earlier and the cold and the frostbite will end sooner. Also, the length of the cold and freezing period is decreasing, which may reflect the consequences of climate change at study stations. The results of this study are based on the studies of Grasick and Dodwilich (2015) in Poland, Medella et al. (2016) in Texas, Hosseini and Ahmadi (1395) in Saqez, Aqa Shariatmadari et al. (1395) in West Iran, Sobhani et al. (1396). ) In Ardebil and Khalili et al. (1396) in Iran.  }, Keywords = {KeyWords: Climate change, Cold, Frost, Lars-WG}, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {49-64}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.49}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2734-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2734-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Jafariazar, Samira and Sabzghabaei, Gholam Reza and Tavakoly, Mortaza and Dashti, Soolmaz}, title = {Assessment and Management of environmental risk of Salty, Sweet and Minab Rivers International Wetlands on the basis of multi-criteria decision-making methods}, abstract ={Introduction: Wetland ecosystems, especially marine coastal wetlands of the most important and also the most vulnerable are the world's environmental resources. Which has always been sensitive to the fragility of coastal areas, high population density and intensive human activities are faced with the threat of destruction. Based on this, monitoring the trend of the changes in wetlands and their surrounding lands can be effective in the management of these valuable ecosystems. Investigating the environmental risk is a suitable instrument for evaluating and ensuring understanding of the relationships between stressor factors and environmental effects especially in wetland ecosystems. In general, application of methods of evaluating environmental risk is one of the important tools in studying environmental management along with identifying and mitigating potential environmental damaging factors in wetland regions in order to achieve sustainable development. Today, multi-criteria decision-making methods are employed in evaluating the risk in many studies.This study is based on multi-criteria decision-making methods to identify and analyze the risks threatening Tyab- Minab International wetland located in Hormozgan province was conducted. Materials and methods: Based on the methodology to identify and prioritize risks Delphi, AHP and TOPSIS techniques were used to determine the risk priority number. In the first phase of this study, to identify and screen the main criteria of project selection, Delphi method was used. In this study, the panel of interest was determined based on a combination of experts with different expertise and out of a sample of 20 individuals, in which experts with various expertise gave a score from 1 to 5 (Likert scale) to each criterion. In this way, 32 criteria were identified as the most important and considerable risk for Minab Wetland and further proceeded to the second phase for prioritization and analysis. In this stage, multi-criteria decision-making methods were used, in which hierarchical analysis process was employed for prioritizing the criteria using Expert Choice 11 software. The indices of risk evaluation including the impact intensity, incidence probability, and the sensitivity of the receptive environment in environmental risk evaluation of wetlands do not have an equal value and significance. For this purpose, to weight the factors effective in estimating risk level and for prioritization of risk options, the technique for order of preference by similarly to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Excel software were benefited from for calculations. The spectrum of scoring to each of the indices of incidence probability, impact intensity, and the sensitivity of the receiving environment was chosen from very low (1) to very high (9) based on hour spectrum. Following investigation of the types and frequency of indices along with the method of score determination of these indices, three indices of risk intensity (C1), risk incidence probability (C2), and the sensitivity of the receiving environment (C3) were chosen for risk ranking using TOPSIS model. Next, after determination of risk priority number using TOPSIS, the risk levels were calculated and evaluated using normal distribution method for each risk. To determine the degree of risk-taking, risks are organized in a descending order, where the elements of the number of the class and the length of the class are determined based on Relations 1 and 2 (n is the number of risks). Next, the risks are categorized based on these classes. Considering the concept of ALARP, the risks under investigation are divided into high risks, medium risks, and low risks. In this study, considering the number and length of classes, the studied risks were categorized in six levels (critical, intolerable, considerable, medium, tolerable, and trivial risks).   (2) (1) the number of classes=1+3.3 log (n) the length of the classes= the greatest risk value - the smallest risk value/the number of classes Results and discussion: In the first step, the final indices of the wetland's environmental risk were identified and the development of hierarchical tree and classification of the risks threatening wetlands along with their incidence probability in two groups of natural and environmental criteria was performed. Eventually, the final weight of criteria resulting from paired comparisons was obtained in Expert Choice 11 to achieve the score of incidence probability of each risk. Based on the results, among the natural, social, economic, physiochemical, biological, and cultural criteria, drought and climate change, increase urban and rural development, Smugling of fuel, oil pollution, reduce the density of vegetation, indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater were of high priority. The results obtained from ranking the the risks threatening Minab Wetland using TOPSIS suggest that oil pollution, dam construction upstream, persistent drought and climate change, and sometimes alcohol and fuel smuggling and illegal overfishing the priorities are first to fifth. Also Results showed that the respectively based on (Cj+) oil pollution (0/9109), dam construction (0/8121), the drought and climate changes (0/8063) and the smuggling of fuel (0/7520) are in Unbearable level. Overall, the results indicated that same as this research, wetland ecosystems are subject to many threatening factors, resulting in ecological imbalance and abnormal appearance of the wetland, putting the wetland entity into danger of extinction in terms of fauna and flora. Conclusion: Nowadays, for assessment of environmental risk, various methods are used, each of which has positive and negative points given the studied environment and the conditions governing it. Therefore, one cannot reject or approve one method with total confidence. By employing novel methods in risk evaluation, the intensity of risk incidences and, in turn, the damages and losses incurred to the environment can be prevented or at least mitigated. Further, it is also possible to move in line with proper and optimal management of environmental resources, especially wetlands and with sustainable development. Undoubtedly, understanding and recognition of the factors threatening wetlands, according to the importance and the impact of them, Prevent and cope with the threats and accurate project preparation and implementation of wetland conservation plans and environmental management.}, Keywords = {Risk Assessment, Wetlands International, Environment, AHP, TOPSIS}, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {65-88}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.65}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2582-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2582-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Farajzadeh, manouchehr and kazemnezhad, zahra and borna, rez}, title = {Assessing vulnerability of agriculture in the face of climate change (Case Study: Gilan Province)}, abstract ={Abstract Climate change in one area has severe impacts on water resources and, consequently, agriculture in that area. Therefore, studying the extent of the vulnerability of regions to adopting policies to reduce or adapt to new conditions is of particular importance. One of the methods for assessing the extent of damage to agricultural activities is the calculation of the vulnerability index. In this study, with the aim of assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change, The CVI index was calculated for 16 cities in Guilan province. The results showed that the cities of Rasht (61.58) and Talesh (55.21) had the highest vulnerability and, accordingly, had the least adaptive power to climate change compared to other cities. And Langrood County (29.51) has the lowest number of vulnerabilities. The average value of the calculated index is 40.42 in Guilan province. In component R, the most vulnerable were Talesh (99.66) and lowest for Lahijan (2.27), In component M, the highest vulnerability was for Rudbar (97.21) and the lowest for Talesh (24.30), In component A, the most vulnerable were Rasht (89.99) and the lowest for Anzali (2.21), In component C, the most vulnerable were Shaft (66.66) and lowest for Anzali (1.89), In component U, the most vulnerable were Rasht (67.55) and the lowest for Astara (28.92), In component E, the highest vulnerability was for Talesh (76.49) and lowest for Lahijan (22.69), In component G, the most vulnerable was reported to Rasht (53.05) and the lowest vulnerability was reported for Sunnelk (23.24).}, Keywords = {Key words: Gilan, Vulnerability Index, CVI, Agriculture, Climate Change}, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {89-106}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.89}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2796-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2796-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Hejazizadeh, Zahra and ToulabiNejad, Meysam and ZAREICHAGHABALAKI, ZAHRA and amraeei, behz}, title = {Monitoring of Dust Storm in the Midwest of Iran Case Study: Dust Storm June 16-19, 2015}, abstract ={This research was conducted to identify the dust storms in the Midwest of Iran from June 16 to 19, 2015. To investigate the synoptic conditions of the causes of this phenomenon, the ECMWF has an array of 0.125 degrees, including geopotential, omega, and sea level pressure, orbital and meridian components of the wind, specific humidity Soil moisture was applied to a depth of 10 cm. Similarly, for the purpose of routing the source of dust particles, the model of the Minimum Meteorological Parameters (HYSPLIT) Marv was used. The results of this study showed that in Lorestan province, non-ditches created by low-pressure thermal springs and high-altitude movements in Saudi Arabia caused the convergence and sucking of flows to the west of the country, as well as the establishment of a low-pressure cut at the middle levels of the atmosphere in the east of the Caspian. In the event of this risk, it has been effective. According to the average soil moisture from the surface of the earth to a depth of 10 cm in days with dust hazards, the moisture content of dust particles in the dust was less than 15%, due to the flow of streams from these fields without sufficient moisture, fine particles the soil is easily directed towards the study. A survey of Hysplit tracking maps shows that two general paths for the transfer of dust to the studied region can be detected. 1-Northwest - Southwest At an altitude of 1500 meters: passing through the dust nuclei formed in the northwest of Iraq and east of Syria, carry out the transfer of dust to the west-west of Iran. As these currents have been able to transfer dust to the southwest of Iran, this path can be considered the main route of dust dispersion to the region. 2- The western-eastern route at an altitude of 500 to 1000 meters: is the source of particles of this route inside the country (around Hurralazim) that entered the West of Iran and greatly reduced the horizontal visibility, which is the main source of dust on June 18 and 19. The investigation of the path of dust particles in the walnut shows that these particles were initially transferred to lower levels by low-pressure systems in the Midwest of Iran and then pulled in three directions on the ground.}, Keywords = {Dust, Synoptic system, Hysplit model, Optical depth, Iran.}, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {107-124}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.107}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2726-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2726-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {SafarianZengir, Vahid and Sobhani, Behroz}, title = {Investigating and predicting the hazardous effects of monthly Ferrin temperature on horticultural and agricultural products In the north bar of Iran (Golestan, Gilan and Mazandaran provinces)}, abstract ={Introduction Changes, although low in temperature, change the occurrence of extreme phenomena such as droughts, heavy rainfall and storms (Varshavian et al., 2011: 169). Reducing the daily temperature variation has led to a reduction in the frequency of occurrence of temperature minima, especially in winter (Schiffinger et al., 2003, p. 51-41). Material and method The purpose of the present study was to investigate and predict the risk of monthly rainfed temperatures on horticultural and agricultural products in northern Iran. For this purpose, first, the data of the temperature of the whole station were obtained at a time interval of 30 years. Then, using Anfis's adaptive neural network model, data were collected for prediction and prediction for the next 6 years. Then, to measure the land suitability of the northern strip Iran was used for cultivating according to the predicted data using two models of Vikor and Topsis. Conclusion: In recent years, damage to agricultural and horticultural products has been increased due to temperature fluctuations. Accordingly, in this research, the prediction of the risk of monthly rainfed temperatures on horticultural and agricultural products in northern Iran has been investigated. Based on the predicted data, the minimum temperature of the Gorgan station was the lowest educational error with a value of 0.10 and at the maximum temperature, the lowest error was 0.015. Finally, in Golestan province, the maximum temperature And at least both are weak in the incremental state. Minimum and maximum temperature of Bandar Anzali station was the lowest educational error with the value (0.013, 0.10). In Gilan province, the maximum temperature peaks and at least both are in incremental conditions and the maximum temperature has a higher intensity. Be The minimum temperature of the Babolsar station was the lowest educational error with the value of 0.019 and at Ramsar maximum temperature, the lowest error was 0.016, and Mazandaran province exhibited maximum and minimum temperatures at both incremental and minimum levels Temperature showed greater intensity. Results: According to the findings of the study, with respect to the friction frain modeling, the maximum temperature showed the lowest defect compared to the minimum temperature. In Golestan province, the maximum temperature peaks and at least both are in weak increment, but in Gilan province, the maximum temperature peaks and at least both the maximum and maximum temperatures are higher. Mazandaran province showed maximum temperature and minimum temperature in both incremental and minimum temperature conditions.  }, Keywords = {hazard, Farin Temperature, Gardening and Agricultural Products, Northern Iran, ANFIS. }, volume = {5}, Number = {4}, pages = {125-144}, publisher = {دانشگاه خوارزمی}, doi = {10.29252/jsaeh.5.4.125}, url = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2822-en.html}, eprint = {http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2822-en.pdf}, journal = {Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts}, issn = {2423-7892}, eissn = {2588-5146}, year = {2019} }