OTHERS_CITABLE ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری سواحل نسبت به بالا آمدن تراز آب دریا در شهرستان بابلسر چکیده پژوهش درباره‌ی سوانح بزرگ طبیعی و سوانح ناشی از فناوری‌ها به موضوعی مهم در جغرافیا و کاربرد آن تبدیل شده است. امکان تحلیل پیچیدگی مسئله در رویکرد سیستمی و در نگاه جامع‌گرای به جغرافیای نظری و کاربردی و جامع‌ بودن جغرافیای طبیعی و انسانی محقق است. با توجه به اینکه نوسانات سطح آب دریای خزر از جمله در منطقه‌ی ساحلی بابلسر حتی در مقیاس دهه‌ای بسیار سریع اتفاق می‌افتد، رعایت عنصر ایمنی در سایه‌ی مدیریت یک‌پارچه ساحلی با تعیین حریم دریا در این سواحل امکان‌پذیر خواهد بود که جغرافیا و، به‌ویژه، ژئومورفولوژی یکی از ارکان اصلی در این نوع از مدیریت سواحل است. تعیین حریم نوسانات تراز آب دریا، که باعث تغییرات مورفولوژیکی در سطح زمین و وارد آمدن خساراتی به تأسیسات انسانی می­شود، ضرورت اجرای این پژوهش را در قالب بررسی نقش شاخص‌های ژئومورفولوژیکی در ساخت و ساز منطقه ساحلی شهرستان بابلسر به‌خوبی روشن می‌سازد. در این پژوهش، از شاخص آسیب‌پذیری سواحل (CVI) به منزله‌ی شاخص ژئومورفیک تأثیرگذار در ساخت و ساز منطقه‌ی ساحلی بابلسر استفاده شد. ابتدا با استفاده از داده‌های توپوگرافی (مدل رقومی ارتفاع ده متری) و با توجه به نوسانات تراز آب دریای خزر، محدوده‌ی حایل عمودی اولیه و ثانویه در اراضی شهرستان تعیین شد. محدوده‌ی حایل عمودی اولیه شامل اراضی است که در ارتفاع پایین‌تر از 7/24- متر قرار دارند و محدوده‌ی حایل عمودی ثانویه اراضی را با ارتفاع بین 7/24- تا 5/23- متر شامل می‌شود. در ادامه‌ی همین بحث و در داخل اراضی محدوده‌ی حایل عمودی اولیه و ثانویه، شاخص آسیب‌پذیری ساحل بر مبنای پنج پارامتر ارتفاع، شیب، لندفرم ژئومورفولوژی، کاربری اراضی و فاصله از جاده در دو زیر‌شاخص با منشأ طبیعی و با منشأ انسانی اجرا گردید. با توجه به شاخص آسیب‌پذیری ساحل بر مبنای متغیرهای طبیعی (NCVI)، انسانی (HCVI) و شاخص آسیب‌پذیری نهایی (TCVI)، بخش‌های وسیعی از سواحل شهرستان بابلسر (به‌ویژه در محدوده‌های شهری بابلسر و فریدونکنار) در طبقات با درجه‌های آسیب‌پذیری بالا و بسیار بالا قرار می‌گیرند. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2474-fa.pdf 2016-06-16 1 12 واژگان کلیدی: سوانح طبیعی نوسانات تراز آب آسیب‌پذیری شهرستان بابلسر Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in Babolsar ownship Abstract Coastal areas are dynamic and complex multi-function systems. A wide number of often conflicting human socio-economic activities occur in these areas. These include urbanization, tourism and recreational activities, industrial production, energy production and delivering, port activities, shipping, and agriculture. Coastal systems are also characterized by important ecological and natural values; their high habitat and biological diversity is fundamental to sustain coastal processes and provide ecosystem services which are essential also for human well-being. Human activities often conflict with the need to preserve natural coastal systems and their ecological processes.    One of the most important applied problems in coastal geology today is determining the physical response of the coastline to sea-level rise. Predicting shoreline retreat and land loss rates is critical to planning future coastal zone management strategies and assessing biological impacts due to habitat changes or destruction. Presently, long-term (>50 years) coastal planning and decision-making has been done piecemeal, if at all, for the nation's shoreline. Consequently, facilities are being located and entire communities are being developed without adequate consideration of the potential costs of protecting or relocating them from sea-level rise-related erosion, flooding and storm damage.    Research on major natural disasters and related technologies has become an important subject in geography and its application. The complexity analysis of the issue is possible in a system approach to theoretical and applied geography also in the integrity of physical and human geography. Due to the Caspian Sea water-level fluctuation in coastal zone of Babolsar which happens very quickly in decade scale, the observance of safety element will be possible in light of the integrated coastal zone management with determine of sea frontage. In this context, geography and especially geomorphology is a main basic in this kind of coastal management.    Detection of sea level fluctuations causing morphological changes in the earth surface and damage to facilities, clarifies the necessary of the present research to study the role of geomorphological indices in Babolsar coast zone constructions. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is one of the most commonly used and simple methods to assess coastal vulnerability to sea level rise, in particular due to erosion and/or inundation. The CVI provides a simple numerical basis for ranking sections of coastline in terms of their potential for change that can be used by managers to identify regions where risks may be relatively high. The CVI results can be displayed on maps to highlight regions where the factors that contribute to shoreline changes may have the greatest potential to contribute to changes to shoreline retreat. In this study, coastal vulnerability index (CVI) is used as effective geomorphic index on Babolsar coast zone constructions. In first, primary and secondary vertical frontages were detect using topographic data (digital elevation model with cell size 10-meter) and Caspian Sea water-level fluctuations.    The primary vertical frontage includes areas which have the lower height of -24.7 meters and secondary vertical frontage consists of areas which are placed between -24.7 and -23.5 meters. Following this issue, within the primary and secondary vertical frontage, coastal vulnerability index was performed based on five parameters, elevation, slope, landform, land use and distance from main road. According to the coastal vulnerability based on natural (NCVI), human (HCVI) and total vulnerability index (TCVI), large parts of the Babolsar coastal zone (especially in Fereidoonkenar and Babolsar city areas) placed in classes of high and very high vulnerability.    With respect to detection of the primary (level -24.7 m) and secondary (from level -24.7 to -23.5 m) frontages in Babolsar township area, 345 and 7177 hectares of the township lands are located in the primary and secondary vertical frontages, respectively. The most area of the township land uses in primary frontage belongs to natural structures that have 153 hectares of area. Survey of lands distribution in the height of -24.7 to -23.5 m (secondary vertical frontage) shows that agriculture land use has the most extent in this area; the area of this land use is 5293 hectares that equivalent to 74 percent of all lands which are located in the secondary frontage. Urban and industrial structures have 45 and 522 hectares of area in the primary and secondary frontages of Caspian Sea in Babolsar Township, respectively. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2474-en.pdf 2016-06-16 1 12 Keywords: Physical Geography Coastal Vulnerability Index Babolsar Coast Area Seyed Hassan sadogh 1 AUTHOR Khabat Derafshi 2 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE تحلیل مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر مشارکت زنان در چرخه‌ی‌ مدیریت بحران شهر تهران گروه‌های گوناگون جامعه می‌توانند نقش بسیار مهمی در مدیریت بحران ایفا کنند. کشورهایی آسیب‌پذیریِ کمتری خواهند داشت که قشر‌های مختلف مردم به صورت مستقیم در فعالیت‌های کاهش خطر شرکت کنند و هر کدام توانمندی‌های خود را برای درک و پاسخ به سوانح متفاوت به عرضه گذارند. بنابراین، با توجه به نقش مشارکت زنان در فرایند مدیریت بحران، شناسایی مؤلفه‌ها و تحلیل بر این امر می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز حضور مؤثر آنان گردد. شناخت این مؤلفه‌ها می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز تبدیل گروه از قشری آسیب‌پذیر به قشری توانمند، فعال و مؤثر باشد. از این رو، تحقیق به شیوه‌ی پیمایشی با تکمیل پرسش‌نامه به استخراج این عوامل پرداخته است. برای تکمیل داده‌ها از روش نمونه‌گیری تناسبی استفاده شد و داده‌ها با روش تحلیل عاملی بررسی گردید. با استفاده از این روش داده‌ها و متغیرها مورد نظر خلاصه شد و مؤثرترین عوامل در این مشارکت تعیین گردید. این عوامل شامل دانش مدیریت بحران، عوامل فرهنگی و جنستی، تقدیرگرایی، احساس قدرت و اعتماد به نفس بود که نتایج در این چهار بعد با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی بررسی شد. در بخش دانش مدیریت بحران مقدار KMO معادل 74/0 بود و مجموع متغیرهای این بخش در چهار عامل 42/67 درصد از تغییر‌پذیری (واریانس) متغیرها را تبیین کردند. مقدار KMO در بخش احساس قدرت و اعتماد به نفس 72/0 بود و متغیرهای این بخش نیز با چهار عامل 27/65 درصد از تغییر‌پذیری متغیرها را تبیین کردند. مقدار KMO تقدیرگرایی معادل 599/0 بود و این بخش با چهار عامل توانست 56/59 درصد از تغییر‌پذیری متغیرها را تبیین کند. سرانجام، مقدار KMO هنجارهای فرهنگی- اجتماعی معادل 71/0 است و 52/70 درصد از تغییر‌پذیری متغیرها از طریق پنج عامل در این بخش تبیین شده است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2345-fa.pdf 2016-03-10 13 28 چرخه‌ی مدیریت بحران مشارکت زنان تحلیل عاملی شهر تهران Analysis of Components Influencing the Women\'s Participation in Disaster Management Cycle in Tehran Various community groups can play important role in disaster management. Countries with different segments of people directly participate in activities to reduce the risk. Therefore, regarding the role of women's participation in disaster management process and as a part of human society will have an important role in this process, identify and analyze the factors affecting women's presence is essential. However, the central role of women in families and communities remains unknown in most parts of the world specially in planning and managing the disaster. The purpose of this study is to identify and understand the different capabilities of women to participate actively in the cycle of disaster management and providing strategies for increasing women's participation in the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery of probable disasters.    This study is an original and practical research. According to the theoretical research, a questionnaire was designed in four parts and it was completed through sampling. The sample population is women living in 22 districts of Tehran. This study implies that there is the low participation rate of women in disaster management among citizens of Tehran. To complete the data, proportional sampling was used and data were analyzed using factor analysis. Using this method, the data and the variables were summarized and the most effective factors were set in the partnership. These factors include disaster management, cultural factors and gender, fatalism, a feeling of power and confidence that the results of the factor analysis was performed using four dimensions. Based on tradition of social research and the findings of previous empirical research on women's participation in disaster management and the factors influencing voluntary participation, contextual condition of social variables (including socio-economic condition, occupation, marital status, number of children and age), as well as religious and fatalistic attitude would studied and evaluated the factors influencing the motivation and willingness to participate as a volunteer in the field of disaster management.    The findings show that KMO value was equivalent to 0.74 in four factors of disaster management and the total values of the sector were defined 67.42% of total variance of  the variables. KMO value in the sense of power and confidence variables was 0.72 and 65.27% of this segment can be explained by four factors the variability of the variables. In fatalism variable the KMO value was 0.599 and 59.56% of the four factors could explain the variability of variables. Finally, the KMO of socio-cultural norms was 0.71 and 70.52% of the variability of the variables was explained by five factors in this sector. Women cooperation alongside men play a major role in the use and implementation of policies and programs related to accidents. Thus, participation as one of the arguments in crisis management requires people involved in all processes related to the crisis management cycle. Since public participation opportunities and fields are different in societies and in different groups, so, to attract the participation in each group, identifying effective components is essential.    Finally, after using factor analysis and extracting four factors, including knowledge of effective crisis management, cultural factors and gender, fatalism, a sense of power and self-confidence were classified. In general, most people do not do any activities in disaster management and their awareness and knowledge does not lead to disaster management needs. Thus, organizational barriers, structural, administrative and educational activities to promote social and cultural constraints are considering strategies promoting women's participation in disaster management cycle. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2345-en.pdf 2016-03-10 13 28 Women participation Earthquake Disaster management Strategies Tehran Ali Saei 1 AUTHOR Seyed Ali Badri sabadri@ut.ac.ir 2 AUTHOR Nasrin Kazemi 3 AUTHOR Fayezh Tajik 4 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE تحلیل و ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری لغزشی در پهنه های کوهستانی کلان‌شهر تهران زمین‌لغزش نوعی حرکت دامنه‌ای است که نه‌تنها ساختارهای انسانی مثل جاده‌ها، خطوط راه‌آهن و مناطق مسکونی را تحت تأثیر خود قرار می‌دهد، بلکه تلفات جانی را هم در پی دارد. در این پژوهش، داده‌های لغزشی و شیب در حوضه‌‌های کوهستانی کلان‌شهر تهران به منظور تهیه‌ی نقشه‌ی پهنه‌بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش و بررسی آسیب‌پذیری مناطق توسعه‌‌یافته در پهنه‌های پرخطر تحلیل شده است. این پهنه‌بندی با استفاده از تلفیق مدل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره در سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و استفاده از 8 عامل کمی و کیفی به منزله‌ی عوامل مؤثر در وقوع حرکات ‌لغزشی منطقه انجام شد. وزن‌دهی به معیار‌های مورد نظر از دو روش مدل نسبت فراوانی و مدل تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی صورت گرفت. بعد از این مرحله، فازی‌سازی معیارهای مؤثر در وقوع زمین‌لغزش‌های منطقه‌ی مطالعه، نقشه‌های پهنه‌بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش با عملگرهای جمع فازی، ضرب فازی و گامای فازی با لانداهای 8/0 و 9/0 تهیه گردید. با انطباق نقشه‌ی نهایی پهنه‌بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش حاصل از مدل فوق و نقشه‌ی مناطق شهری در حوضه‌های کوهستانی، مناطق شهرسازی شده به پهنه‌های با خطر بسیار زیاد تا پهنه‌های با خطر بسیار کم تفکیک شد. نتایج حاصله از تحلیل داده‌های لغزشی نشان داد که برخی از محدوده‌های کوهستانی کلان شهر تهران مستعد حرکات لغزشی با خطر متوسط به بالا هستند. مهم‌ترین راهکار برای کاهش خسارت‌های ناشی از وقوع زمین‌لغزش(به جز پایدارسازی مناطق ناپایدار) دوری جستن از این مناطق است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2346-fa.pdf 2016-03-10 29 44 توسعه‌شهری آسیب‌پذیری زمین‌لغزش مدل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره کلان‌شهر تهران Analysis and Assessment of Landslide Vulnerability in Mountainous Hillsides of Tehran Metropolis Today, urban and regional issues related to sustainable development is a key challenge for policy-makers, planners and specialists in various disciplines. Geomorphologic studies can be useful and effective in analyzing and deriving acceptable means to assess the growth and development of the city, and to set criteria to determine the directions of urban development.    Landslides range of motions not only affect the human structures such as roads, rail lines and residential areas, but also lead to casualties. Tehran metropolis mountainous basins, including Kan, Vesk, Farahzad, Darake, Velenjak, Darband, Golabdare, Darabad, Sorkheh-Hesar, and Sohanak due to the lithology, geologic structure, weathered sediments, steep slope, rainfall and poor urban development are considered as one of the places where landslides are a range of geomorphologic processes can be studied.    At this research, using Fuzzy and AHP methods and by the use 8 factor variables such as lithology, elevation, slope, aspect, annual rainfall, maximum daily rainfall, distance from fault and drainage system. the map of landslide zonation hazard in mountainous areas of the city is prepared to determine risky strips. After the standardization of the criteria for the occurrence of landslides and using frequency ratio method and fuzzy model and functions, Landslide hazard zonation maps was prepared for evaluating from the fuzzy sum, fuzzy product and fuzzy gamma operator 0.8 and 0.9. Then the final map of landslide zonation, obtained from the above-mentioned method matched with the map of urban regions in mountainous areas. In this way the constructed region have been distinguished from very high and very low hazard zonation.    Lithological studies showed that most of the basin areas covered by Karaj Formation. About 45/7 percent of units with sliding movement in areas with "rock crystal tuff and tuff lytic green, with the layers of limestone" (unit Et2) of the intermediate tuff formation occurred. Cross of faults distance map with landslide density map showed that about 33/1 percent of landslides occurred within 200 m of the fault lines and 78/4 percent of landslides occurred within 500 m of drainage network. Most sliding movements (60/2 percent) in the range of 1900 to 2500 meters altitude and about 35/3 percent of this type of range of motion in height of 1500 to 1900 meters occurred. This area is about 81/6 percent of sliding movements in slopes between 15 and 40 degrees (26/8 to 83/9 percent) and about 17/6 percent on slopes less than 15 degrees (26.8 percent) occurred. In the aspect, sliding movements of the basin, mainly in the south-western slopes (about 23/2 percent), the South (about 17/5 percent), West (about 16/6 percent) and Southeast (about 77/1 percent), northwest (about 33/1 percent) occurred. About 88/9 percent of sliding movements in areas with average annual rainfall of 244 to 280 mm occurred. According to the zoning map, 12 percent of mountainous basins area (approximately 10,057 acres) is in the zone of very high risk, 33 percent (approximately 27,723 acres) is in high risk areas, 20.5 percent (approximately 17,143 acres) in the moderate risk zone, 30/ 7 percent (approximately 25,672 acres) in area and 3.8 percent of the total area of the basin, low risk (approximately 3172 acres) located in low risk areas. The results showed that approximately 5.2 hectares (about 0/05 percent) of the urban in zones with a huge landslide, about 51/5 acre (approximately 1 percent) in zones with high landslide risk and about 821 acres (equivalent to 25/16 percent) in the medium risk landslide zones are located and developed.     The final results indicate that some mountainous regions of Tehran Metropolis are apt to landslide with middle to high risk. (Apart from strengthening the vulnerable area) avoiding these areas is an important solution to decrease damages caused by landslide. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2346-en.pdf 2016-03-10 29 44 Urban Development Vulnerability Landslide Multi-Criteria Decision Making Models Tehran Metropolis Amir Saffari amirsafari@yahoo.com 1 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE برنامه‌ریزی پیشگیری از صدمات سانحه زلزله در شهر سراب ایران سرزمینی بزرگ و پهناور است که بر روی کمربند زلزله‌‌ای آلپ هیمالیا قرار گرفته است. ناحیه‌ی آذربایجان و شهر سراب نیز از مناطق لرزه‌خیز ایران است. هدف اصلی این مقاله برنامه‌ریزی برای کاهش صدمات ناشی از زلزله در شهر سراب است. تحقیق حاضر از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است. در این زمینه، با توجه به هدف تحقیق نُه معیار شناسایی و ارزیابی شد، بدین صورت که برای هر کدام از شاخص‌ها و یا معیارها یک لایه نقشه با فرمت shp تهیه شد و، سپس، طی فرایند‌ تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی و وزن‌دهی به متغیرها عملیات روی‌هم‌گذاری لایه‌ها با استفاده از توابع تحلیلی موجود در نرم‌افزار Arc gis صورت گرفت.  با توجه به یافته‌های حاصل از تحقیق می‌توان گفت که شهر سراب از نظر آسیب‌پذیری در مقابل خطر زمین‌لرزه وضع مطلوبی ندارد، به طوری که همه‌ی نقاط شهر سراب به‌هنگام بروز زلزله آسیب‌پذیر است. با وجود این، برخی از محلات آن به دلیل کیفیت نامناسب ساختمان‌ها و آسیب‌پذیری شبکه‌ی معابر و فشردگی بیش از حد و دسترسی‌نداشتن به فضای باز دارای آسیب‌پذیری بیشتری هستند. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2347-fa.pdf 2016-03-10 45 57 برنامه‌ریزی شهری‌ پیشگیری سوانح طبیعی زلزله سراب GIS Planning for Prevention of Earthquake Disaster Harms in Sarab City   Iran is a wide and great land that is located on Alps earthquake belt of Himalaya. Great part of the urban and village residency of the country have been exposed to the intensive earthquake and destructive. Sarab city with several other cities, including Tehran, Karaj, Abyek, Qazvin, Roudbar, Khalkhal ,Tabriz, Marand and khoy are located on Earthquake belt that Earthquake risk is too high.   In Eastern-Azerbaijan and Sarab, potential earthquake risk is very high, since there are a lot of active faults and historical evidences show the horrific and destructive earthquakes.   Sarab city located in the Sarab plain which have abundant faults in various directions. Earthquake as a natural phenomenon doesn’t have good results but what can make it a catastrophe, is the lack of prevention from its effects and no preparation for coping with its aftermaths.   The unsuitable establishment of structural elements and urban land-uses and atypical web of urban open spaces, the old ages of and low quality of the structures in the decayed area of the factors like this have main role in the increasing the amount of damage entered to the cities against to the earthquake.   It is necessary to reduce the vulnerability of the cities against the earthquake and to consider it as one of the main goals of the urban planning.   Main objective of this paper is planning for reduction of damages arising out of earthquake in Sarab city. The study area is the Sarab city with four urban regions and 15 districts. The present research is an applied study.   For this purpose, considering the goal of the study, nine factors including the type of structural materials, the quality of the buildings, the number of the floors, the population density, pedestrian width , the availability of open space and distance from river were identified and evaluated, so that for each of the indicators or factors, one layer of map with shp format was produced and then in an analytical hierarchy process and weighting to the variables, layers overlaying operation using available analytical functions was implemented in Arc Gis software. Finally the vulnerability map of the Sarab city was prepared. According to the results of AHP model, it is concluded that Sarab in terms of vulnerability has no appropriate status against earthquake risk so that the whole Sarab city is vulnerable to earthquake, but some of its neighborhoods due to low quality of buildings and vulnerability of streets network and inaccessibility to open areas and excessive compression are more vulnerable. Deteriorated urban area is one of the most vulnerable parts of the Sarab city during the occurrence of the earthquake. Therefore, to reduce the health and wealth damages which can cause by the earthquake in the city.   http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2347-en.pdf 2016-03-10 45 57 Planning Earthquake Prevention Sarab AHP GIS Ahmad Pourahmad 1 AUTHOR Asadollah Divsalar 2 AUTHOR Parvaneh Mahdavi 3 AUTHOR Zahra Gholamrezai 4 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE تحلیل فضایی مخاطره‌ی توفان‌های تندری بهاره‌ی ایران درپژوهش حاضر، داده‌‌های ماهانه‌ی فراوانی وقوع توفان‌‌های تندری 25 ایستگاه سینوپتیک کشور در طی بازه‌ی زمانی 51 ساله از 1960-2010 با استفاده از روش‌‌های تحلیل خوشه‌ای سلسله‌مراتبی وارد شد و روش زمین‌آمار کریجینگ به منظور طبقه‌بندی و شناسایی مکان‌‌های اصلی رخداد مخاطره‌ی توفان‌‌های تندری فصل بهار در ایران تحلیل شد. پس از محاسبه فراوانی وقوع توفان‌‌های تندری فصل بهار و بررسی ویژگی‌‌های آماری مربوط به آن، تابع توزیع احتمالاتی مناسب با داده‌‌های توفان‌‌های تندری برازش داده شدو سپس، با استفاده از تحلیل خوشه‌ای به تقسیم‌بندی مناطق گوناگون به گروه‌‌های همگون و با استفاده از روش کریجینگ به پهنه‌بندی توفان‌‌های تندری اقدام گردید. پس از بررسی فراسنج‌‌های آمار توصیفی توفان‌‌های تندری بهاره، مشخص شد که توزیع احتمال فراوانی وقوع داده‌‌های توفان‌‌های تندری بهاره‌ی ایران، مانند بیشتر متغیرهای تصادفی گسسته از توزیع احتمال ویبول سه پارامتری تبعیت می‌کند. براساس نتایج حاصل از تحلیل خوشه‌ای مناطق گوناگون کشور به پنج ناحیه همگن مجزا مشتمل بر نواحی شمالی، میانی، شمال شرقی؛ نواحی مرکزی و شرقی؛ شمال غرب؛ غرب و نیمه‌ی جنوبی با روند مشابه خوشه‌بندی گردید. پس از انجام پهنه‌بندی مشخص شد که کانون‌‌های اصلی رخداد این پدیده بیشتر در نواحی شمال غرب و غرب کشور متمرکز شده است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2348-fa.pdf 2016-03-10 59 70 مخاطرات اقلیمی پهنه‌بندی توفان تندری تحلیل فضایی ایران The Spatial Analysis of Hazard of Spring Thunderstorms in Iran Thunderstorm is one of the most severe atmospheric disturbances in the world and also in Iran, which is characterized by rapid upward movements, abundant moisture, and climatic instability. Since this phenomenon is usually accompanied with hail, lightning, heavy rain, flood and severe winds, it can cause irreparable damage to the environment. Investigation of spring thunderstorms has a great significance regarding the irreparable damages can cause by them and also because of the higher frequency of this phenomenon in the spring and the necessity for preparedness and disaster mitigation actions. To identify the locations of the major thunderstorm risk areas, the entire country with an area of 1648195 square kilometers, which is located between the 25°-40° north latitude and 44°-63° east longitude is considered.     Spatial distribution of the occurrence of hazardous spring thunderstorms was analyzed using a series of monthly thunderstorm frequency data obtained from 25 synoptic stations over a 51-year-long period (1960-2010). Ward's hierarchical clustering and Kriging methods were used for statistical analysis. Initially, total number of thunderstorms in April, May and June were considered as the frequency of occurrence of thunderstorm in different stations in the spring. Measure of central tendency and dispersion which consists of the sum, minimum, maximum, range and coefficient of variation, standard deviation, and skewness were used to clarify the changes of thunderstorms and to determine the spatial and temporal climatic distribution of spring thunderstorms. An appropriate probability distribution function was chosen to determine the distributions of the data.  Due to the large volume of data and the uneven distribution of stations, cluster analysis and kriging methods were used to classify different regions into homogeneous groups for zoning and spatial analysis of spring thunderstorms, respectively. The statistical characteristics of spring thunderstorms were reviewed and fitted with a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. Regions considered for this study were classified in four separate clusters according to the simultaneity of thunderstorms in the spring. After zoning, it was found that the highest rates of thunderstorm took place in the northwest and west of country. The northeast of Iran has the second highest number of thunderstorm occurrence. The least number of thunderstorm event had happened in the central and southern half of the country.     According to the descriptive statistics parameters, maximum number of thunderstorms occurred in May.. Based on the results of the cluster analysis, there is a similar trend in the central and eastern regions, the rest of the country was clustered into five distinct homogeneous regions, including the northwestern, western, southern, northern, central northern and northeastern regions. Zoning results indicate that the highest number of the occurrence of this phenomenon in the country is concentrated in the northwestern and western regions. Higher frequency of occurrence of thunderstorms in the northwestern and western regions may be attributed to local topographic conditions like high mountains, orientation of the terrain, solar radiation on slopes and existence instability conditions, hillside convection, the presence of water resources and specific climatic conditions in these areas. In addition, as a result of a continuous surface obtained by the method of interpolation with the least amount of systematic error and also the use of correlation functions for recognizing the spatial structure of the data and estimating the model error when using the Kriging method, the weights are chosen in order to have a more optimized interpolation function. Also the cluster analysis may significantly reduce the volume of operation without affecting the results and will help in finding a real band due to more appropriate classification of different geographic areas with greater spatial homogeneity and minimal variance within the group. Based on the results of the spatial analysis, it is clear that Kriging and Ward cluster analysis methods are appropriate for thunderstorm zoning and classification of different regions according to occurrence of thunderstorm, respectively. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2348-en.pdf 2016-03-10 59 70 Thunderstorm Climatic hazards Zoning Spatial analysis Iran Yosef Ghavidel Rahimi 1 AUTHOR Parasto Baghebanan 2 AUTHOR Manuchehr Farajzadeh 3 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE مکان یابی پایگاه مدیریت بحران در دهستان کهریزک شهرستان ری مخاطرات محیطی یکی از موانع اصلی تحقق توسعه‌ی پایدار در سکونتگاه‌های انسانی (به‌ویژه روستاها) است. امروزه، با رویکرد جدیدی که به مقوله‌ی مدیریت بحران می‌شود استفاده‌ از همه‌ی دستاوردهای مدیریتی، سازماندهی و برنامه‌ریزی، قبل از وقوع بحران، امری الزامی و عقلانی است. در این باره، در مواجه‌شدن با بحران‌های احتمالی، یکی از ارکان اصلی در نظر‌گرفتن پایگاه‌های مدیریت بحران است که همه‌ی اقدامات پیشگیری، آمادگی و مقابله، از جمله امداد رسانی، اسکان موقتِ حادثه‌دیدگان، در آن مهیا شود تا پیامدها را درباره‌ی بحران احتمالی به حداقل ممکن برساند. از این رو، دهستان کهریزک به علت واقع‌شدن بر روی کمربند گسل کهریزک، وجود صنایع خطرآفرین در منطقه و عواملی جز آن برای این پژوهش انتخاب شد. در زمینه‌ی اجرای پژوهش، در مرحله نخست، معیارهای نهایی مکان‌یابی پایگاه‌های مدیریت بحران، با نظرسنجی‌کردن از متخصصین امر و بومی‌سازی آن‌ها با شرایط محدوده، انتخاب شدند. در ادامه، پس از گردآوری داده‌ها با استفاده از روش‌های کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی، از تلفیق دو مدل منطق فازی و مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی AHP و پس از ارزیابی میدانی مکان استقرار بهینه پایگاه مدیریت بحران (گزینه‌ی شماره 3) انتخاب شد. در این پژوهش، نتایج زیر حاصل شد: - معیارهای مکان‌یابی پایگاه مدیریت بحران روستایی، صرفاً، ماهیتی محیطی (طبیعی و مصنوع) ندارد، بلکه معیارهای اجتماعی ـ اقتصادی نیز دارای اهمیت‌اند؛ -  معیارهای مؤثر بر مکان‌یابی پایگاه مدیریت بحران روستایی متأثر از الزام‌های منطقه‌ای و محلی یکسان نیستند. از این رو، بومی‌سازیِ معیارها ضرورتی است که، در مکان‌یابی، باید به آن توجه شود؛ -  ضوابط مبتنی بر معیارهای مکان‌یابی بر اساس اهداف، نوع خدمات و شرایط مکانی در سطوح گوناگون فضایی (ناحیه‌ای، محلی، شهری و روستایی) متفاوت است و نمی‌توان ضابطه‌ای را برای همه‌ی سطوح در‌نظر گرفت؛ -  مکان‌یابی، صرفاً، مبتنی بر تعیین مکان در چارچوبِ روی‌هم اندازی لایه‌های اطلاعاتی با کمک مدل‌ها نیست، بلکه انتخاب گزینه‌ی نهایی باید پس از بازدید و ارزیابی میدانی صورت بگیرد. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2349-fa.pdf 2016-03-10 71 84 مکان‌یابی پایگاه مدیریت بحران منطق فازی تحلیل سلسله مراتبی سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی Site selection of crisis management base in Kahrizak District of Ray County Environmental hazards are considered as one of the main obstacles for achieving sustainable human settlements development (particularly in rural areas). Today, with a new look at crisis management, using all managerial, organizational and planning accomplishments before the crisis, is an essential and rational concern. Rural settlements of the country along with cities always are threatened by a variety of environmental hazards, but what makes these spaces different from the cities is the high-intensity of vulnerability due to its physical decay texture. In this regard, one of the key elements in confronting the possible crisis that must be taken into account is the crisis management bases in which all prevention, preparedness and response measures, including disaster relief, temporary accommodation for the injured, etc. is provided and minimizes the consequences of potential crisis. Being located in the Kahrizak fault zone and the placement of hazardous industries in this region, is the main reason for selecting Kahrizak district as a study area in this research.    To achieve goals of constructing crisis management bases which indeed is the tactic ability of crisis management system (CMS), it is required to set the site selection criteria and standards for constructing them in such a way that provide more operational activities and develop the level of their impacts. In this regard, in the first step, the final criteria for site selection of crisis management base were selected after reviewing previous studies. Then, after surveying the experts and also the localization of criteria on the basis of area condition, seventeen final criteria were determined. For quantitative criteria, data were collected through organizations and reference centers and for a single qualitative criterion (cultural convergence), the questionnaire instrument used in gathering data. After collecting data using library and field methods, a combination of two models: fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis process (AHP) applied for optimal location of crisis management base.    To determine the impact level of each criterion in the site selection process in two above-mentioned models, the standards for each of the seventeen criteria was determined with the help of combination method. The standards of some of the criteria determined using the standards in related organizations and some other standards proposed by experts and also through the localization by the researcher. Afterward, initially fuzzy standardized common scale maps produced from all information layers in a raster format. Then selected criteria by experts in the format of AHP model were compared with each other through pairwise comparison method. As a result of this comparison, the weight of criteria was determined which indicates the preference degree of each criterion over the others. At last, all standardized (fuzzified) layers multiplied in each of the final weight resulting from Analytical Hierarchy Model and in total converted into weighted fuzzy layers. In the next step, following the process of fuzzy model, fuzzy addition and multiplication operators were applied on output layers. Finally, to modify the layer resulting from fuzzy addition and multiplication, the Gamma operator was used. As such, after producing layers of different fuzzy gammas, essential assessment was conducted for selecting appropriate and ideal gamma. In order to do this, produced layers of each fuzzy gammas were compared with the study area for optimal location and the establishment of crisis management base. Since the gamma 0.9 had the most conformity to suitable zone in the layers of study area, it was selected as the appropriate gamma. However, to ensure the selected location, field study was conducted.     According to the research findings, the following conclusions were obtained: Site selection criteria for rural crisis management base not only has an environmental essence (built and natural), but socio –economic criteria are important as well Effective criteria for site selection of rural crisis management base, affected by regional and local requirements are not the same. Localization of criteria is a necessity that should be considered in site selection. Standards based on site selection criteria depending on the type of services, goals and location at multiple spatial levels (regional, local, urban and rural) is different: in the other words one size does not fit all Site selection is not only based on the location within overlaying information layers by using the models, but the final choice is done after field evaluation and visit. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2349-en.pdf 2016-03-10 71 84 site selection crisis management base fuzzy logic AHP GIS farhad azizpour azizpour@khu.ac.ir 1 university of kharazmi AUTHOR Vahid Riahi 2 AUTHOR Ali Moazeni 3 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روند نمایه های حدی بارش ایران زمین با توجه به موقعیت جغرافیایی ایران، که در منطقه خشک و نیمه‌خشک جهان واقع شده است، هر ساله شاهد رویدادهای حدی بارش کم (خشکسالی) و رویداد‌‌‌های حدی بارش زیاد (رخداد سیل) هستیم. از این رو، ضرورت بررسی مقادیر حدی بارش و حرکت و فراوانی رخداد این کمیت طی دوره‌های گذشته و، همچنین، تأثیر گرمایش جهانی بر حرکت مقادیر حدی بارش طی دوره‌‌‌های آتی کاملاً احساس می‌شود. بنابراین، در این مطالعه نمایه‌های حدی بارش طی دوره‌‌‌های گذشته (1961-1990) و دوره‌ی آتی (2011-2040) در دو سناریوِ A2و A1Bبر اساس مدل HadCM3بررسی و مقایسه شده است. این بررسی در سناریوِ A2روند افزایشی رویدادهای حداکثر بارش یک‌روزه در مناطق شمال غربی (جز استان آذربایجان غربی)، مرکزی و جنوب غربی و شمال شرقی و سواحل غربی دریای خزر را پیش‌بینی کرده است. همچنین، افزایش روند تعداد روزهای خشک متوالی در مناطق شمال شرقی، مرکزی و جنوبی کشور مشاهده می‌گردد. نتایج حاصل از سناریوِ A1Bنشان داده است مقدار بارش 24 ساعته در دوره‌ی آتی در مناطق شرقی و شمال شرقی و مرکزی همچنین نوار باریکی از بخش‌های غربی، جنوب غربی و شمال غربی کشور با کاهش همراه است. نتایج حاصل از پیش‌آگاهی برون‌داد مدل HadCM3و سناریوِ A1Bدر خصوص رویداد‌‌‌های حداکثر بارش پنج‌روزه روند بسیار مشابه‌ای با الگوی حاصل از سناریوِ A2داشته است. نمایه‌ی SDIIدر بخش شمالی و غربی کشور افزایش نشان می‌دهد و در سایر مناطق کشور روند منفی خواهد داشت. روند مثبت در تعداد روزهای با بارش سنگین به بخش‌های از استان اصفهان، مرکزی، کهکیلویه و بویراحمد، لرستان، ‌ایلام، ‌چهارمحال بختیاری و خوزستان در غرب و جنوب غرب کشور محدود شده و در سایر بخش‌ها با کاهش این نمایه روبه‌رو خواهیم بود. افزایش روند خطی نمایه‌ی حداکثر تعداد روزهای متوالی‌تر (CWD) در مناطق غربی، جنوب غربی و شمال شرقی کشور و افزایش تعداد روزهای متوالی خشک در مناطق شمال شرقی، مرکزی و بخش‌هایی از جنوب کشور و، همچنین، جمع بارش سالانه و روزهای تر در نواحی غربی و جنوب غربی، جنوبی، شمال غربی و بخش‌هایی از شرق کشور افزایش نشان می‌دهد.   http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2350-fa.pdf 2016-03-10 85 103 تغییر اقلیم نمایه‌‌‌های حدی بارش روند ایران Effect of climate change on the trends of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Iran Global changes in extremes of the climatic variables that have been observed in recent decades can only be accounted anthropogenic, as well as natural changes. Factors are considered, and under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing the frequency of some of these extreme events is likely to change (IPCC, 2007 Alexander et al., 2007). Folland et al. (2001) showed that in some regions both temperature and precipitation extremes have already shown amplified responses to changes in mean values. Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, floods and droughts, can have strong impact on society and ecosystems and are thus important to study (Moberg and Jones, 2005). Climate change is characterized by variations of climatic variables both in mean and extremes values, as well as in the shape of their statistical distribution (Toreti and Desiato, 2008) and knowledge of climate extremes is important for everyday life and plays a critical role in the development and in the management of emergency situations. Studying climate change using climate extremes is rather complex, and can be tackled using a set of suitable indices describing the extremes of the climatic variables.    The Expert Team on climate change detection, monitoring and indices, sponsored by WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Commission for Climatology (CCL) and the Climate Variability and Predictability project (CLIVAR), an international research program started in 1995 in the framework of the World Climate Research Programme, has developed a set of indices (Peterson et al., 2001) that represents a common guideline for regional analysis of climate.    It is widely conceived that with the increase of temperature, the water cycling process will be accelerated, which will possibly result in the increase of precipitation amount and intensity. Wang et al. (2008), show that many outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicate the possibility of substantial increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme daily precipitation.     eneral circulation models (GCMs) are three-dimensional mathematical models based on principles of fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative heat transfer. These are easily capable of simulating or forecasting present-future values of various climatic parameters. Output of GCMs can be used to analyze Extreme climate. For this study high quality time series data of key climate variables (daily rainfall totals and Maximum and minimum temperature) of 27 Synoptic stations were used across Iran from a network of meteorological stations in the country. In order to get a downscaled time series using a weather generator (LARS-WG), the daily precipitation output of HadCM3 GCM, SRES A2 and A1B scenario for 2011-2040 are estimated.     The Nine selected precipitation indices of ETCCDMI[1] core climate indices are used to assess changes in precipitation extremes and monitor their trends in Iran in the standard-normal period 1961–1990 and future (2011-2030).    Due to the purpose of this study, at first changes in extreme precipitation indices in the standard-normal period is evaluated and its results show annual maximum 1-day precipitation increased in many regions in the East of Iran. Simple measure of daily rainfall intensity (SDII), annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation, annual count of days with daily precipitation greater than 10mm (R10mm), annual count of days when rainfall is equal to or greater than 20 mm (R20mm) have increased in the central areas, regions in the north , north east and southern parts of Iran. Similar results are obtained for the R25mm index.    The consecutive dry days (CDD) index has generally increased across the west areas, southwest, north, northwest and southeast of Iran and indices of consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased in these areas.    Trends of extreme precipitation indices simulated by HadCM3 SRES A2 showing increases RX1Day in North West expect west Azerbaijan Province, central, southwest, north east and coasts of Caspian Sea. Similar results are obtained for the R5mm index expects northeast. There are mixed changes in R10mm across Iran, increasing in west, southwest, coasts of Caspian Sea, Hormozgan and Ardebil provinces, East Azerbaijan, Zanjan and Qazvin  provinces. Similar results are obtained for the R20, 25 mm index in northeast, south of Caspian Sea, and some parts in western and central areas. Same as HadCM3 SRES A2 pattern there are mixed changes in R10mm across the region. Positive trends are seen in part of the Isfahan, Markazi, Kuhkilue , Lorestan, Ilam, Chaharmahaland Khozestan provinces and some part of Hormozgan and Kerman and some areas in north west. Similar results are obtained for the R20mm and R25mm index and in west of Yazd to north of Khozestan provinces have increased.    Consecutive wet days (CWD) have increased over most of the west of Iran, Khorasn Razavi and Southern Khorasn provinces, In contrast consecutive dry days (CDD) index has generally increased in many parts of the region.   [1]. Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Monitoring Indices http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2350-en.pdf 2016-03-10 85 103 Climate Change Trends Precipitation Extremes Iran Omosalameh Babai Fini 1 AUTHOR Elahe Ghasemi 2 AUTHOR Ebrahim Fattahi ebfat2002@yahoo.com 3 AUTHOR