OTHERS_CITABLE بررسی تغییرات زمانی -مکانی تپه‌های ساحلی ماسه‌ای با استفاده از سنجش‌ازدور (RS) مورد مطالعه: منطقه غرب زرآباد سالانه حجم عظیمی از ماسه‌های بادی، مناطق مسکونی و روستاها را مورد هجوم قرار می‌دهند. در برخی از روستاها که در مسیر حرکت ماسه‌ها قرار دارند، مقدار حجم رسوبات به‌گونه‌ای است که سبب دفن واحدهای مسکونی شده و روستاییان به‌ناچار مجبور به ترک روستاها و خانه‌های خود شده‌اند. هدف از این پژوهش حاضر با دیدگاهی جدید و کاملاً متفاوت از بقیه پژوهش‌ها، درواقع به دنبال آشکارسازی تغییرات فضایی - زمانی تپه‌های ماسه‌ای در منطقه ساحلی غرب زرآباد (کنارک) بوده است. پژوهش حاضر برای رسیدن به هدف ذکرشده ازلحاظ هدف کاربردی  و ماهیت روش‌شناسی بر مبنای روش، توصیفی – تحلیلی و  از طریق شیوه مطالعه کتابخانه­ای- اسنادی و پیمایشی برای تحقیق در منطقه روستایی  غرب زرآباد پرداخته شد. در این تحقیق برای بررسی  تغییرات فضایی- زمانی تپه ماسه‌ای منطقه غرب زرآباد، در دوره زمانی ۲۳ ساله (۲۰۱۴-1991) از  نقشه‌های زمین‌شناسی، تصاویر ماهواره‌ای ،GPS، استفاده گردید و به‌وسیله روش­های سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی(GIS)، و نرم‌افزار (ENVI)  مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصل از گسترش تپه‌های ماسه‌ای  نشان می‌دهد که در سال 1991 تا 2014 مساحت کاربری  که به نفع تپه­های ماسه­ای تغییر کاربری یافته­اند، عبارت‌اند از پوشش گیاهی حدود 108/0 کیلومترمربع، رسوبات رودخانه­ای 60/10 کیلومترمربع و زمین­های بایر 35/264 کیلومترمربع بوده­اند. همچنین بیشترین تغییر مساحت  مربوط به تپه­های ماسه­ای بوده که در سال 1991 (25/561) کیلومترمربع  بوده و در سال 2014(45/578) کیلومترمربع رسیده و  رشدی معادل (198/ 17) کیلومترمربع را  داشته است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2528-fa.pdf 2016-10-06 1 14 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.1 غرب زرآباد تپه‌های ماسه‌ای سنجش‌ازدور تغییرات زمانی – مکانی دریای عمان A Survey on Spatial–temporal Changes of Coastal Sand Dunes Using Remote Sensing (RS). Case Study: West of Zarabad Region Iran is among 10 top potential countries of occurrence of natural hazards in the world and from among 35 natural hazards, so far about 30 hazards have occurred in Iran(Negaresh and Latifi,2009). One of the different types of natural hazards which every year causes a lot of damage particularly in arid and arid regions of the world is the existence of sandy hills(Omidwar,2006); sandy hills are mostly created in coastal regions of most seas and oceans. These hills are the result of mutual effects of waves, marine currents, wind and sediments available in coastal regions. They are implemented with components of the coastal environment and construct the eco-systemic bases in which there are valuable collection flora and fauna(Kidd, 2001). The studied region is among the deserts near Gulf of Oman coasts. Sand on the coast are with marine origins and by getting far from the sea, sandy hills, in addition to having marine origins, have land origins. In some seasons of the year, particularly in summers and falls in which Monsoon winds start blowing up, the range of the movement of running sands is more towards rural regions in such a way that annually, a large part of sands covers residential areas, farmlands, road & building facilities, and infrastructural facilities in the rural areas of the west of Zarabad and left behind heavy damages and losses. The aim of this study is the detection of temporal-spatial changes in sand dunes in the Gulf of Oman coastal region. In addition, trend and severity of this hazard and the effects of climatic and environmental factors that intensified dimensions of risk were considered. The present study, to achieve the mentioned objective is an applied study and in terms of research, a method is a descriptive-analytical one. To collected data, it uses library-documentary as well as survey studies in the rural areas of the west of Zarabad. After that, to investigate the changes of the degree of displacement in dunes of the studied region in the 23 year time period (1991-2014), GPS and the Enhance Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images of the Landsat Satellite 7 and 8 with the spatial resolution of 15 and 30 m were used. The satellite images were used in this study with time intervals of 10 and 13 years were related to years of 1991, 2001, and 2014 in August respectively and they were extracted from USGS.The ENVI software and Geographic Information System were used for images processing and interpretation. The geometric and radiometric corrections were applied on images according to standard procedures. Finally, classification and related calculation were performed. The conducted studies in the region based on the interpretation of satellite images and survey studies indicated that changes in the available users in the region, the top increases for dunes occurred in 1991 as 561.25 km2, in 2001 as 568.10 km2, and in 2014 as 575.45 km2. In fact, it has experienced a growth as 17.198 km2. The vegetation whose area covers 32 km2 in 1991, in 2014 has reached an area with 45km2 and increased as 1.6% compared to the previous period. In 1990 to 2014, the area of the user which has been changed in favor of dunes, includes 0.108 km2 vegetation, 10.60 km2 stream sediment, and 264.35 km2 arid lands. Therefore, dunes move with high speed after each storm and during these displacements, a lot of damages are imposed on farmlands, facilities, and rural settlements. Investigating the degree of imposed damages indicates that annually, a large area of regions such as villages, roads, and facilities are influenced by running sands, which this trend can cover more regions in future years. The degree of displacement of dunes, according to the analyses conducted during the research period(1990-2014), has been so great that it has caused the burial of a large number of villages, infrastructure, farmland and roads and resulted in the unemployment of a large number of farmers in the region. Imposed damages to rural settlements have not been less than agricultural sectors and facilities. Therefore, due to the movement of running sands during recent years, 15 villages have been at the exposure of damages in such a way that compensation of these damages has imposed heavy costs, and consumed a lot of time on the shoulder of the society. As a result, the movement of dunes towards studied villages, i.e. Biahi, Mashkouhi, Abd, Rig Mostafa, Kalirak, Kerti, and Gati which are in the coastal regions, and Sohraki, Ganjak, Tanban, Zahrikar, and Kaidar which are located at far distances from the coast suffer from the highest amount of dunes and are considered as the most critical regions in terms of the movement of sand dunes. The results also showed that the important factors on severity and development of these critical regions are: a shortage of precipitation , loose and fine-grained sediments, low slope, no obstructions against the marine winds and high frequencies of winds and storms in this region.On the other hand, the lack of any varieties of vegetation on dunes, as well as the drought of recent years confirms spatial-temporal changes in the sand dunes towards the study area. In this research, the hazards due to running sands in the West region of Zarabad (Baluchestan) were studied. The results from satellite image interpretation and field works were showed that the greatest change of land cover in recent years was related to sand hills. The total areas of sand dunes in 1990 are 561 km²,in 2001 these area increases to 568 km² and finally in 2014 reached to 578.5 km².The average growth rate is about 0.76 km² per year. The  landcover change from river sediments and barren land to sand dunes, during this period are estimated 10 and 264 km². The storm and marine winds moving  sand dunes and running sands from coastal regions to rural settlements,farmland,Roads and other Infrastructures of the region. This hazard was just too much damage like  buried villages, the destruction of roads and unemployment and migration of farmers. The number of evacuated villages are 15 cases that some of these villages is located in the coastal region(Biahi,Mashkohi,Abd,Kalirak……..) and others in inland(Soharaki,Ganjak,Tanbalan,…..). This is the manifestation of crisis and instability in the rural communities that creating important obstacles to development and it is triggered vulnerable rural development was decreased. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2528-en.pdf 2016-10-06 1 14 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.1 Zarabad region Sand dunes Remote Sensing Spatial–temporal changes Gulf of Oman Mahmood Khosravi Khosravi@Gep.usb.ac.ir 1 AUTHOR Samad Fotohi 2 AUTHOR Soliman Pirouzzadeh 3 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE ارزیابی میزان تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌ها در برابر مخاطره‌ی سیلاب در روستاهای منتخب حوضه‌ی نکارود برنامه‌های کاهش و پیشگیری از بروز فجایع از جمله سیاست‌هایی است که کشورها برای افزایش توان و ظرفیت جامعه‌شان در برابر بلایا، به‌دنبال آن هستند. سیلاب از جمله مخاطراتی است که در سال‌های اخیر خسارات زیادی در مناطق مورد مطالعه بر جای گذاشته است. با توجه به اینکه نمی‌توان از وقوع رخداد سیلاب جلوگیری کرد، ولی می‌توان با ارزیابی نقاط تاب‌آور و آسیب‌پذیر در برابر خطرات احتمالی، تا حدّ زیادی اثرات ناشی از سیلاب را کاهش داد. هدف از انجام این تحقیق، سنجش میزان تاب‌آوری و شناسایی نقاط قدرت و ضعف روستاهای تحت‌تأثیر سیلاب در حاشیه‌ی نکارود است که بر اساس نمونه‌گیری تصادفی 8 روستا از بین روستاهایی که تحت تأثیر سیلاب در سال‌های اخیر بوده‌اند، انتخاب شدند. روش تحقیق در این مطالعه توصیفی- تحلیلی و ماهیت آن کاربردی است. بر این اساس برای ارزیابی تاب‌آوری روستاهای مذبور، از چهار بعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیرساختی و نهادی بر اساس مدل مکان محور (DROP) استفاده گردید. در مرحله‌ی بعد اطلاعات مورد نیاز از خانوارهای روستاهای نمونه در قالب پرسشنامه، جمع‌آوری و بعد از کدگذاری در SPSS مورد پردازش قرار گرفت. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که سکونتگاه‌های مورد مطالعه در شرایط متفاوتی از نظر تاب‌آوری قرار دارند. با در نظر گرفتن هر چهار بعد تاب‌آوری، مشخص گردید که روستای زرندین سفلی با بیشترین نمره میانگین در رتبه‌ی اول از لحاظ تاب‌آور بودن در برابر مخاطره‌ی سیل قرار دارد. روستاهای کوهسارکنده و زرندین علیا در جایگاه‌های بعدی هستند. با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده، روستای گلبستان با کمترین میانگین رتبه‌ی آخر را از نظر میزان تاب‌آوری بدست آورده است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2529-fa.pdf 2016-10-06 15 30 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.15 تاب‌آوری مخاطره سیلاب سکونتگاه‌های روستایی حوضه‌ی نکارود. Assessing the Resilience of the Rural Settlements against the Risk of Flooding in the Villages of the Nekarud Basin Natural disasters is one of the main challenges for developing countries, which not only cause death and emotional pain and suffering of survivors, but greatly affecting development. Reduction programs and prevention of disasters, including policies that countries to increase community capacity in disaster, are followed to improve the effects of these disasters. One of the risks that affect Iran, is flooding. Iran has a very high risk of flooding, which in most years, about 70% of annual credit plan is paied to reduce the effects of natural disasters. Floods in recent years has left a lot of damage in many parts of Iran. Because the flood event and can not be prevented, but we can assess the resiliency and vulnerability of risks to reduce the effects of flooding greatly. Planning in disaster management process can reduce the risks of accidents and improve the resilience. Thus, how and by what means we can increase the capacity of society to accept a certain level of risk is very important. In recent years, many researches, focused over concept of resilience and disaster risk reduction policy. This research study area is the Nekarud basin in Mazandaran province. Population growth and unethical uses of Nekarud and natural resources, humans and their facilities, infrastructure and natural resources of the basin are vulnerable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the resiliency and identify strengths and weaknesses in the flood affected villages Nekarud margin is based on random sampling of villages (8 villages) have been affected by floods in recent years, were selected. The research method is descriptive and analytical study of its nature. The aforementioned villages to assess the resilience, the four dimensions of economic, social, and institutional infrastructure based on the location of the axis (DROP) provided by Cutter and his colleagues in 2008, was used. According to the surveys and the results obtained, it can be stated that the model DROP, because of the location-based (geographic), and the integrity of the elections aspects and indicators to measure and assess the resilience of settlements is a good model. The dimensions considered to measure resilience include: economic, social, institutional and infrastructure. After determining the dimensions required components and indicators research, scientific references were identified by the study, questionnaires were prepared. Secondly, the need of the rural sample in the form of a questionnaire, collected and analyzed after coding in SPSS. The findings of the study showed that the settlements are in a different situation in terms of resilience in different dimensions. The economic resilience for the total sample is 8.96. The amount of this variable for Zarandin-e Olya, Zarandin-e Sofla, Abelo and Kuhsarkadeh rural settlements is higher than the average whole. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2529-en.pdf 2016-10-06 15 30 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.15 Resilience Hazard Flood Rural settlement Nekarud basin. Homa dorostkar gol khili h_dorostkar_90@yahoo.com 1 AUTHOR Yadollah yousefi 2 AUTHOR Mehdi Ramezanzadeh Lasboyee 3 AUTHOR Hematollah Roradeh 4 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE تحلیل سینوپتیک مخاطرات اقلیمی در جنوبغرب ایران مورد مطالعه: بارش های سنگین سیل زا در آذر 1391 سیلاب به عنوان یکی از مخاطرات محیطی همواره طی تاریخ حیات بشری ابعاد مختلف زندگی را دستخوش تغییر و تهدید نموده و با داشتن بیشترین فراوانی نسبی وقوع از حوادث طبیعی باعث خسارات مالی و حتی جانی زیادی در جهان شده اند. از این رو، هدف غایی این مطالعه ی همدید، تبیین اندرکنش های کلیدی میان جو و محیط سطحی و به عبارتی کشف رابطه ی میان الگوی گردشی موجد بارش های سیل زا در منطقه ی مطالعاتی به منظور پیش بینی وقوع رگبارهای منجر به سیل است. بدین منظور برای تحلیل همدید بارش های موجد سیل آذرماه 1391 در جنوبغرب ایران (استان های بوشهر، خوزستان و کهکیلویه و بویراحمد)، با بهره گیری از رویکرد محیطی به گردشی، الگوهای گردشی ایجاد کننده ی بارش های سیل زا شناسایی شد و مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان داد که بارش های سیل زا در منطقه طی روزهای 4 تا 8 آذرماه فرود عمیقی بر شرق مدیترانه تشکیل گشته و منطقه ی مطالعاتی در نیمه شرقی این فرود که محل ناپایداری جو است قرار داشت. در عین حال، الگوهای ضخامت جو، بیانگر ریزش هوای سرد از اروپای شمالی به سمت عرض های پائین تر و گسترش هوای گرم مستقر در شمال آفریقا تا عرض 50 درجه ی شمالی است؛ در نتیجه در محل برخورد این دو توده ی هوا، ناپیوستگی جبهه­ای دور از انتظار نیست. تحلیل الگوهای تابع همگرایی شار رطوبت نیز نشان داد که بارش های سیل زا نتیجه ی شارش رطوبت از پهنه های آبی مدیترانه و خلیج فارس بوده و دریای سرخ و دریای عرب جز منابع تقویتی محسوب گردید. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2530-fa.pdf 2016-10-06 31 46 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.31 بارش سیل زا تحلیل همدید الگوهای گردشی الگوهای ضخامت همگرایی شار رطوبت جنوبغرب ایران Synoptic Analysis of Climatic Hazards in Southwestern Iran (Case study: flood generating heavy precipitation of Azar 1391) We can identify the flood not only considering circulation pattern in occurring day but also by studying circulation pattern a few days before fresh event. This subject has mutual approach. In one hand, it indicates  that circulation patterns which were before flood event have important role in determining the conditions and moisture content of studied area and playing the fundamental role in few coefficient of region because it determines the previous moisture. On the other hand, it indicates that we should tracking the rain-genesis synoptic systems from source to end place of their activity for studying floods and their meteorology factors which have created them. By this way, we can acquire more comprehensive recognition about the relationship between circulation pattern and floods. In the other words, the identification of synoptic patterns that have created the flood reveals not only the mechanism of their emergence but also is useful for prognosis and encountering with them. The extensive researches have been accomplished about Inundation in the world and Iran, but Iran haven’t much antiquity about synoptic researches. For foreign researches, we can name researchers such as Hireschboeck (1987), Kutiel et al(1996), Komusce and et al (1998), Krichak  and et al (2000), Rohli and et al (2001), Kahana (2002), Teruyuki Kato(2004), Ziv and et al (2005), Carlalima and et al (2009). The numerous researchers have studied the Inundation climatology in internal of country such as Bagheri (1373), Ghayour (1373), Kaviani and Hojatizadeh (1380), Moradi (1380), moradi (1383), Mofidy (1383), Masoodian (1384), Masoodian (1384), Hejazizadeh et al(1386), Parandeh Khozani and Lashkari (1389). In this research, we considered the heavy precipitation of Azar 1391 in southwestern of Iran that resulted in flood phenomenon in the cause and effect manner so that can do necessary prevention actions before occurring the flood for preventing the probable damages and optimal use of precipitations by forecasting the patterns that have created the flood. In this synoptic study, we need to two database: one group is variables and atmospheric data consisting of geopotential height of 500 hpa level (in meter geopotential), zonal wind and meridional wind (in m/s) and special humidity (in gr/kg) during this times 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 Greenwich in 0-80° northern and 0-120° eastern with local resolution of 2.5*2.5 Arc that have been borrowed from database of (NCEP/NCAR) dependent to National Atmosphere and Oceanography Institute of USA, and other group is daily precipitation data of region rain gauge stations during 4-8th Azar of 1391 (24th November – 28th November 2012). In continuation. By applying the environment- circulation approach, we took action to drawing circulation pattern maps of 500 hpa level, thickness of atmosphere patterns of 500-1000 hpa and moisture flux convergence function from 4-8th Azar of 1391 (that for calendar, conform with 48 hours before beginning the showery precipitation until ending the storm activity) by using data which obtained from database of NCEP/NCAR and the synoptic conditions of above flood have been studied and interpreted in the region. Flood is one of the most destructive natural hazards that have imposed and impose many damages to people during the history. Hence, the final aim of this research is to explain the key interactions between atmosphere and surface environment and in other words exploration of the relationship between circulation patterns leading to the flood generating precipitation in the southwestern of Iran for forecasting the time and intensity of showers occurrence that lead to flood. For this purpose, by applying environmental-circulation approach, the circulation patterns identified and studied which resulted in flood generating precipitation. The result of this research indicated that torrential precipitations in the region have formed the deep trough in days 4-8 of Azar on the east of Mediterranean and the studied region placed in the east half of this trough that is the location of atmosphere instability. At same time, thickness patterns, indicate the flux of cold air from northern Europe to lower latitudes and spreading the warm air of north of Africa to latitude 50° northern. As a result we expected the frontal discontinuity in the encountering place of these two air mass. Analysis of the moisture flux convergence patterns also indicated that torrential precipitations were the result of moisture flux from Mediterranean and Persian Gulf; and Red Sea and Arab Sea taken into account as reinforced sources. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2530-en.pdf 2016-10-06 31 46 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.31 Torrential Precipitation Synoptic Analysis Circulation Patterns Moisture Flux Convergence Southwest of Iran. Amir hossien Halabian halabian_a@yahoo.com 1 AUTHOR Fereshteh hossienalipour jazi 2 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE انباشت سرمایه و تشدید مخاطرات محیطی شهر- منطقه تهران شهر - منطقه  تهران در معرض مخاطرات محیطی  مختلفی است.  نقش فرآیند انباشت سرمایه در شرایط خاص اجتماعی ، اقتصادی در شکل پذیری فضاهایی قابل بررسی است که می تواند به زمینه بروز و تشدید مخاطرات محیطی را فراهم آورد. هدف اصلی مقاله درک روندهای قانون انباشت سرمایه  و اثرش بر آن بخش از مدیریت فضای شهر- منطقه تهران است که زمینه بروز و تشدید مخاطرات محیطی  را فراهم آوده است. ناحیه مورد مطالعه تحقیق را شهر-ناحیه تهران به عنوان یک ساختار تحلیلی تشکیل می دهد. در جستجوی جمع آوری داده های مورد نیاز تحقیق،  پنج  فضای  مختلف شهری تهران  انتخاب شده است. در جمع آوری و تجزیه و تحلیل داده های پژوهش از "روش کیو" استفاده شده است. مناسب بودن داده ها برای انجام تحلیل عاملی توسط شاخص KMO مشخص شده است. نتیجه نشان داده که چهار عامل مرتبط به هم شامل "کارکرد سودا گری مستغلات " ، "کالایی سازی زمین و مسکن" ،"مدیریت و نظارت بر فضای شهر- منطقه" و "نظارت و کنترل منابع طبیعی" سبب شده که اقتصاد مولد تضعیف و ساخت و ساز شهری  و پیراشهری را به حرفه ای سود آور و جذاب تبدیل شود در نتیجه  سازندگان ساختمان در جستجوی سود با استفاده از کالایی شدن زمین و مسکن و نفوذ پذیری قوانین نظارتی، به روش های شبه قانونی هر نوع کاربری اعم از پارک، فضای سبز، منابع طبیعی، مسیل و کوه  را به  فضای ساخت و ساز تبدیل کرده و فضا برای بروز و تشدید مخاطرات محیطی آماده شده است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2532-fa.pdf 2016-10-07 47 64 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.47 انباشت سرمایه سودا گری مستغلات کالایی سازی زمین و مسکن بوروکراسی ناکارا مخاطرات محیطی شهر-منطقه تهران Capital Accumulation and Environmental Disaster Intensification in Tehran City-Region The City-region of Tehran is encountered with various environmental problems, including traffic, air pollution, lack of drinking water and green space, physical texture conflict, flood and earthquake. Capital accumulation has considerable role in shaping spaces which can create and intensify environmental disaster in special socio-economic situation. The second cycle is the conversion of capital to fixed and long-term assets with the aim of further benefits, which in fact produces two types of artificially environment during this process namely the built environment for production, and the built environment for consumption. The third cycle is aiming to connect science to production and increase production capacity by investment in science and technology. When production of surplus value reduced in the first cycle, surplus value of second cycle increases through speculation and real estate transaction (real estate capital). Therefore, the owners of the lands and buildings are encouraged in production, trade and supply of these type assets. In the courtiers that are legally and administratively encounter with tax receipt problems,  urban lands ownership is deposited to market system without any control, hosing transaction continues without any limitation, situation is moving forward to personal vested interests, asset value rises rather than production value, the price of land and construction increase severely. In the above mentioned condition, beneficiaries attempt convert the natural resources including park, mountain, river privacy and road privacy to marketable commodity and legally or quasi legally seize them. Therefore, unreasonable construction and population density increases and city-region will encounter with environmental disasters.   The main objective of this research is to understand the underlying factors of capital accumulation through construction and its impacts on createion and intensification of environmental disasters in the Tehran city-region.   Five different regions of Tehran were selected for data collection. "Q-methodology" was used for gathering and analyzing data. The society of communication or people whom the study sought to identify their mentality towards the research topic, were 25 experts selected through purposive sampling. To set the concourse of communication, a combination of primary (experts commented in an interview) and secondary (sources of credit) sources have been used and   34 statements have been developed. After sorting the data for analysis, SPSS software data matrix is ​​formed. Factor analysis, as main method of analyzing Q data matrix has been used based on Q logical methodology. The results of Q analysis depicted four viewpoints with variance of 95.911 percent on the underlying cause of capital accumulation through construction and its contribution on increasing risk of natural hazards in Tehran city-region. The first viewpoint has devoted 52.800 percent of total variances and can be titled as" Function of real estate transaction and Non-productive economic domination". The second viewpoint which has received 18.914 percent of total variances is accordance with "commodification of land and housing". The third viewpoint is" management and monitoring of the city-region space" with 15.163 percent of total variances.  The fourth viewpoints under the title of" monitoring and control of natural resources" has assigned 9.034 percent of total variances. As result of these processes, land and housing business have weakened society's productive capacity by extensive land use change in the urban peripheral area's due to its huge and quick profit. The above process accompany with selling excess density policy created a powerful political and economic stratum which harmed city sustainable development. The mountainous area of north, north east and west of Tehran, have annexed to metropolis as a result of above mentioned regulation and  may gardens have converted to construction by different gropes and institutions. Q method analysis depicted that the Tehran City-Region has converted from use value to exchange value. It means that values of the city including work, security, education, leisure and welfare have been lost in favor of exchange value. In other words, the city has been converted to a commodity for exchange and selling in pursuit of profit, rising cost of urban land, building and housing. Consequently, the city-region construction site is extended to the river beds, steep slops and surrounding natural environment. This in turn is leading to rapid land use change and violation of environmental and spatial rules and regulations and intensification of environmental hazards. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2532-en.pdf 2016-10-07 47 64 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.47 Capital Accumulation Real Estate Speculation Commodification of Land and Housing Inefficient Bureaucracy Environmental Disasters Tehran City-Region hassan afrakhteh afrakhteh@khu.ac.ir 1 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE تحلیل سینوپتیکی بارش‌های شدید و فراگیر در ایران بارش­های سنگین از جمله مخاطرات محیطی است که وقوع ناگهانی آنها منجر به خسارات جانی و مالی می­شود. با توجه به اینکه هیچ پدیده­ی محیطی وجود ندارد که الگوی خاصی از توزیع فشار، عامل ایجاد آن نباشد، می­توان با شناخت شرایط سینوپتیکی و الگوهای فشار بوجود آورنده­ی این پدیده، از چند روز قبل، بارش­های سنگین را پیش­بینی کرده و آمادگی لازم در مواجه با این پدیده بدست آورد. بر این اساس این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و طبقه­بندی الگوهای گردش جوی بارندگی­های شدید بر روی ایران، به انجام رسیده است. برای دستیابی به این مهم، داده­های میانگین روزانه­ی ارتفاع تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال و فشار سطح دریا طی دوره­ی آماری  2009 –  1980 در تلاقی­های 5/2 * 5/2 درجه از مجموعه داده­های بازسازی شده­ی NCEP / NCAR ، استخراج گردید. محدوده­ی انتخاب شده که گستره­ای از 10 تا 60 درجه­ی عرض شمالی و 10 تا 80 درجه­ی طول شرقی را پوشش می­دهد، شامل 609 یاخته است. با استفاده از آرایه­ی S روش تحلیل مؤلفه­های اصلی (PCA) تعداد 609 تلاقی مورد مطالعه به پنج مؤلفه­ی اصلی که مجموعاً 63/77 درصد از کل واریانس داده­ها را توضیح می­دهند، کاهش داده شد. سپس به کمک خوشه بندی چند هسته­ای (K- Mean Cluster) همه­ی روزهای مورد مطالعه به پنج گروه دسته­بندی و نقشه­ی ترکیبی هر گروه به عنوان الگوی گردشی کنترل کننده­ی بارش­های شدید و فراگیر ایران، ترسیم و ارائه شد. نتایج این بررسی گویای وجود اختلاف در آرایش الگوها، فراوانی تیپ­های هوا و مسیر حرکت آنها به سوی ایران است. همچنین برای ارزیابی رابطه­ی بین الگوهای گردش جوی و بارش از شاخص Pi  استفاده شد. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2533-fa.pdf 2016-10-07 65 76 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.65 طبقه بندی الگوهای سینوپتیکی بارش‌های شدید تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی خوشه‌بندی ایران Synoptic Analysis of Widespread Heavy Rains in Iran Heavy and torrential rains are one of the hazardous phenomena of atmosphere which always cause several severe damages over Iran. For this reason in every developmental program their intensity and frequency should be understood and predicted. The main factor to their development and intensification are the atmospheric pressure patterns and motions. Therefore, in order to predict their occurrence, in this study we extracted the   highest daily precipitation of days with 90th percentile and above of the year for the 40 selected stations during the 1980- 2009 period. Of these days we selected the days in which at least 25 percent of the stations had the highest daily precipitation. For the selected days we extracted the 500 hPa and sea level pressure maps. Then we clustered the sea level maps through the use of factor analysis and cluster analysis. We extracted five pressure patterns for the whole country explaining 77.63 percent of the total variation. In each pressure pattern we divided the daily rainfall intensity of its days by the daily intensity of all selected rainy days. In this way we developed an index which measures the share of each pressure pattern in the hazardous capacity of the country,s torrential rain days.     The results showed that during all of the torrential rain days there was a deep trough in the region between the Mediterranean Sea and Iran at the 500 hPa level which is accompanied with a low pressure center over Iran. The upper level trough brought the atmospheric instability and the low level pressure system brought the moisture from the western and southern water bodies and intensified the upper level instability. But the variations of their location and intensity caused different pressure patterns and rainfall intensities. Thus predicting the position and intensity of these pressure patterns are very important to monitor the torrential rainfall episodes of the country.    The CP3 pattern with 30 percent of the days showed the highest during this pattern the western trough was bifurcated to the west of Iran but merged to the east. Thus tow maxima of intensive rain days were developed over the south and northwest of the country. The surface low center was deepened up to the northeast of the country bringing moister from the southern water bodies to the country. This pattern was dominant through the fall and winter seasons. The CP4 pattern with 12 percent frequency was the least occurring pattern. This pattern caused the heavy rains of the western parts of the country. The very deep trough to the west of Iran cause very heavy rains in the region. The CP1 pattern was strong in the north and northeast of the country where as the CP2 and CP5 patterns were dominated the southern parts of the country. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2533-en.pdf 2016-10-07 65 76 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.65 Hasan Mostafaii hmostafayi64@yahoo.com 1 AUTHOR Bohloul Alijani 2 AUTHOR Mohammad Saligheh 3 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE تحلیل مشارکت محلی در مدیریت مخاطره سیل در نواحی روستایی مورد مطالعه: روستاهای حوزه آبخیز رودخانه بشار شهرستان بویراحمد سیل بزرگ‌ترین و مهم‌ترین بحران اقلیمی است که همه‌ساله خسارات فراوانی به جامعه انسانی و محیط‌زیست او وارد می‌سازد.  مهار کامل مخاطرات و از آن جمله سیل، امکان‌پذیر نیست. بلکه، تنها می‌توان با مدیریت مناسب آن‌ها، خسارت را به حداقل رساند. مدیریت مخاطرات طبیعی (سیل)،  با تکیه بر رویکرد اجتماع‌محور (مشارکتی)، بر این باور است که بایستی جمعیت محلی آسیب‌دیده به‌عنوان افرادی که توانایی عمل و مشارکت دارند مدنظر قرار گیرند نه افرادی که نیازمند کمک دولت هستند. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، بررسی میزان تمایل به مشارکت و عوامل تأثیر­گذار بر گرایش و رفتار روستاییان حوزه آبخیز رودخانه بشار در شهرستان کهکیلویه و بویراحمد برای بهره­گیری از روش­های نوین مدیریتی سیلاب است. روش­شناسی پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و بر اساس ماهیت و شیوه­ی تحلیل، توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است. روش گردآوری داده­ها و اطلاعات با توجه به ماهیت مطالعه، به دو صورت کتابخانه‌ای- اسنادی و میدانی بوده است.  همچنین در این پژوهش، به منظور برآورد میزان مشارکت مالی جامعه در معرض مخاطره سیل،  از رویکرد تجربی انتخابی مبتنی بر سود و فایده، بر اساس کارت­های ارزشیابی استفاده شده است. متغیرهای اصلی پژوهش شامل؛ کاهش اثرات مستقیم سیلاب؛ کاهش اثرات غیرمستقیم سیلاب و  حفاظت از محیط‌زیست رودخانه (به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل) و میزان تمایل به مشارکت مالی (به عنوان متغیر وابسته) هستند. جامعه آماری پژوهش، 754 خانوار ساکن در حوزه آبخیز رودخانه بشار است که از این  تعداد، حجم نمونه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران 111 خانوار برآورد شد. اطلاعات جمع­آوری شده بعد از بررسی اولیه کدگذاری شد و با استفاده از نرم افزار آماری SPSS پردازش شدند. به منظور تحلیل یافته­ها، با توجه به اهداف تدوین شده،  از آزمون­ آماری T تک نمونه‌ای و مدل زوجی لوجیت استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که خانوار­های روستایی  بر اساس تجربه­های شخصی، نسبت به خطرات سیل و احتمال وقوع آن در آینده آگاهی دارند و بر این اساس مایلند بخشی از هزینه کاهش خطر سیلاب را به عنوان عمل مشارکت­گرایانه برای بهره­گیری از شیوه­های نوین مدیریت سیلاب بپذیرند. همچنین مشخص شد که گرایش جامعه مورد بررسی برای مشارکت در کاهش مخاطره سیل، ارتباط تنگاتنگی با عوامل اقتصادی و اجتماعی، به‌خصوص وضعیت درآمد، سن جامعه و سطح سواد دارد و تصمیم ­گیری و رفتار آن­ها را به شدت تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد، به طوری که می­توان گفت، رفتار جامعه تابعی از عوامل اقتصاد و اجتماعی است. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2534-fa.pdf 2016-10-07 77 94 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.77 مشارکت محلی مخاطره سیل مدیریت حوزه آبخیز رودخانه بشار. The Role of Local Participation in Flood Risks Management in Rural Areas Case study: Villages in the Bashar River Basin in Boyer Ahmad City Among the various environmental hazards, flood is the greatest and most important climate crisis which takes every year the lives of thousands people and impose severe damages on human society and environment. Today, it is clear that controlling all hazards, including floods is not possible. Suitable management can only minimize the damages. The literature on natural disasters management indicated that in the process of natural disaster management and their vulnerability mitigation, there are two dominant paradigm: technic-based approach and community-based approach. Community-based approach welcome the local cooperation and participation in disaster management process and calls for strengthening local capacity through the participation of all individuals and groups at the local level. This approach is not only appropriate to provide solutions for disaster reduction, but build disaster preparedness. Because disaster preparedness planning requires special attention to local participation. In the geographic area of Bashar River Basin, due to the lack of suitable agricultural land and greater quantity of water for rice crop, villages have been built at rivers edge. So that, most of the houses and farms in the villages are located very close to the river. However, these locations are extremely vulnerable to flooding. This study reviews the status of local participation and its impact on reducing flood risks. Also, this research focuses on factors influencing local community trends and choices in the participation rate. This study is applied research in terms of purpose and uses descriptive-analytical method. According to the nature of the study, data were collected through fieldwork and library research methods using observation, interview, questionnaire and evaluation card techniques. To understand different characteristics of community, Likert scale and one-sample t-test were used and measurement scale for data was ordinal. Also. The method of selective experimental approach based on profit was taken to evaluate the level of different trends in Community's financial participation for reducing detrimental effects of flood. To recognize the community awareness and perception toward flood risk and the probability of its occurrence in the future, the willingness level to participation and to explore the effective factors on villager’s decisions and to utilize modern management techniques the selective experimental approach based on evaluation card and logit model were employed. The results of statistical analysis showed that in the study area, 86.5% of the community have experienced the damages caused by flooding and forecasted the likelihood of heightened chance of flooding in the future. Finding showed that although the people use traditional methods for managing flood, but they tend to employ modern methods such as dam building for reducing flood risk. This help them to increase the safety factor for their locations and farm lands. In spite of the fact that the villagers expressed the higher safety factor for new management methods such as (dam building, river broadening and preventing the destruction of forest and environment), but it seems that improper functioning, adverse consequences (environmental and socio-economic) of projects implementation (dam building) as well as the inability of villager's financial participation (high cost of this kind of methods), are barriers to using them for lowering the flood risks and damages. The review of the possible role of some intervening variables to predict local communities' participation in decision-making processes showed that low-income, old age of the samples with high average (47.61) and education with lower average (3.16) are the most important factors influencing community decision making. The results of binominal logit model showed that the proposed variables is significant at the 5% level. If the offer price increase, the chance of residents' acceptance of participation will decrease and vice versa. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2534-en.pdf 2016-10-07 77 94 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.77 Local Participation Flood Risk Management Bashar River farhad azizpour 1 AUTHOR Mohammed Saeed Hamidi saeid.hamidi65@gmail.com 2 AUTHOR Jamshid Chabok 3 AUTHOR
OTHERS_CITABLE بررسی همدیدی روزهای بسیار آلوده درشهرمشهد مورد مطالعه: 13و14نوامبر2007 به منظور تحلیل همدیدی  روزهای بسیار آلوده در13و14 نوامبر ۲۰۰۷ از یک روش تحلیل همدیدی ترکیبی استفاده شد. در پژوهش حاضر، چهار دسته داده، شامل داده های آلودگی ثبت شده در ایستگاه های سنجش آلودگی هوا، داده های رقومی جوی، داده های ایستگاه جو بالا و خروجی های مدلHYSPLIT مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. داده های آلودگی هوا از سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست خراسان رضوی، داده های جوی از مرکز ملی پیش بینی محیطی/مرکز ملی پژوهش جو(NCEP/NCAR)  و داده های جو بالای ایستگاه مشهد از دانشگاه وایومینگ تهیه شد. ردیابی ذرات معلق نیز با بهره گیری از نسخه آنلاین مدل لاگرانژینیHYSPLIT و با استفاده از روش ردیابی پسگرد به انجام رسید. نتایج تحلیل همدیدی بیانگر آن است که روزهای بسیار آلوده 13و14نوامبر2007در شهر مشهد در قالب الگوی پرفشار مهاجرقابل طبقه بندی است .در الگوی پرفشار مهاجر،عبور امواج غربی از روی منطقه، استقرار پشته ای قوی در محدوده رشته کوه های اورال و دریای خزر را در پی دارد که با یک اریب شرق سو شکل گیری مرکز گردش واچرخندی را در حدفاصل دریای خزر تا بخش های شمالی خراسان در ترازهای زیرین موجب می گردد.دراین الگو شاهد شکل گیری همزمان چند لایه کم ضخامت وارونگی در زیر تراز 400 هکتوپاسکال هستیم. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2535-fa.pdf 2016-10-07 95 112 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.95 روزهای آلوده تحلیل همدیدی مشهد Synoptic Analysis of the Severe Polluted Days in the City of Mashhad For a synoptic analysis of high polluted days in 13 and 14 November 2007, a combinatorial synoptic analysis was used. From methodology prospect, the present study has utilized the "circular environment" synoptic approach and with respect to the restrictions on very high-polluted days in Mashhad city, the subjective synoptic analysis used for data processing and analyzing the prevailing atmospheric conditions. In the present research, four sets of the data, including the pollution data recorded at the stations monitoring air pollution, digital atmospheric data, data of upper air stations and the outputs of HYSPLIT model were utilized. The data on air pollution obtained from the Department of Environment Protection of Khorasan Razavi were related to Wahdat station located in the center of Mashhad city. The pollutants include CO, NO2, SO2, ozone, and particulate matter (PM10(  prepared and processed on a daily scale for a 7-year statistical period (2005-2012). When studying the quality of air pollution over Mashhad city, it is necessary to indicate that Mashhad city had only one station monitoring air pollution (Wahdat station) until 2010 and unfortunately, out of 10 present stations for monitoring the air pollution, only Wahdat station was involved a suitable statistical period duration to be studied. Accordingly, the present study has been conducted only by using the pollution data recorded in Wahdat station and utilizing the data of other stations ignored due to the shortness of statistical period duration. The reanalyzed data of the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) with a horizontal separation 2.5 × 2.5 were used in order to study the atmospheric conditions. The atmospheric conditions include the sea level pressure, geo-potential height, vertical velocity, and orbit wind (u) & meridian wind (v) components on different atmospheric levels from the past 48 hours and in a 6-hour interval. In addition, upper air data about Mashhad station (Mashhad airport) were used on a similar period. Upper air data have been obtained from the website of Wyoming university (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) on under study days, including air temperature,  dew point, direction, wind intensity and the atmospheric stability and instability conditions (based on Skew-T Curves – logP). These data are only available on Zero Greenwich hour. The outputs of the HYSPLIT model were also used as complementary data for tracing particulate matter in days 10 -15 in November. In this study, the HYSPLIT model, version 4.9 was used. In the present research, the role of regional atmospheric circulation and pressure patterns were investigated on a synoptic scale in very high-polluted days in November 2007 in Mashhad metropolitan. For this purpose, the mechanism dominated on occurring a very high-polluted period in this city was analyzed using a combinatorial method based on synoptic and thermodynamic analyses as well as tracing particulate matter. The results of studies involve the following findings: the days 13 and 14 November 2007 (22 and 23 Aban, 1386) show the highest concentration rates among the polluted days in Mashhad city. The findings of the research show that the synoptic pattern dominated the very high polluted period (13 and 14 November 2007) is a migrant high-pressure pattern. Accordingly, it may be concluded that the incidence of serious pollutions in Mashhad is initially the result of interacting local conditions with air circulation on a regional scale and then the other local factors. In the other words, Mashhad city would experience very high-polluted days only when regional atmospheric circulation provides suitable conditions to increase the concentration of pollutants. What is obvious is that in the winter season the serious pollutions occurred in Mashhad city are mainly as the results of prevailing extra-tropical systems (migrant anticyclone). Studying subjective synoptic analysis, tracing the backtracking of particulate matter and the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions ( combinatorial synoptic analysis) have provided a deeper and more accurate understanding of the conditions prevailing in the occurrence of serious pollutions in the northeast of Iran. Studying the output of the HYSPLIT model indicates that the migrant stack system of western wave together with the subtropical stack would control the air circulation pattern on the northeast of Iran in 13 and 14 November 2007. Tracing the particulates shows an anticyclone system on the zone. Also, studying SKEW-T Curves related to the migrant high-pressure pattern revealed a different structure, so that the day 12 November 2007 faced with a radiation inversion along with an increased temperature, but on day 13 November 2007 an inversion from the sort of subsidence between the interval of level 850 to 700 hpa was appeared and also reached to higher than 700 hpa. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2535-en.pdf 2016-10-07 95 112 10.18869/acadpub.jsaeh.2.4.95 Synoptic Analysis Polluted Days Mashhad tahereh soltani gord faramarzi ta.soltani@yahoo.com 1 AUTHOR Abbas Mofedi 2 AUTHOR amir Gandomkar 3 AUTHOR