دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Utilization of time series of satellite data in order to validate the identified dust storm sources in Alborz province 1 18 FA bhz.ray@gamil.com Y aaaurelia_67@yahoo.com N Dust is one of the common processes of arid and semiarid regions that its occurrence frequencies has increased in recent years in Iran. The proper identification of sand and dust storms (SDS) is particular importance due to its impact on the environment and human health. So far, several methods for identifying these sources have been proposed such as methods based on field studies and geomorphologic studies, as well as methods on the basis of a numerical model of air flow simulation. Therefore, identifying the process of land cover changes and changes in suspended particles in the air can help to identify the correct sources of sand and dust. Also, to manage the reduction of dust, it will be very useful to analyze the trend of changes in sand and dust sources. This data can provide some useful information to the decision makers about the future occurrence of sand and dust storm and control it. Satellite-based remote sensing is an appropriate tool for examining changes in the surface conditions of the earth over time. Satellite sensors are well suited for this purpose because of the fact that constant measurements can be repeated on a fix spatial scale. Therefore, in this research, we have tried to test different remotely sensed data time series for validation of the identified SDS sources using the latest remote sensing techniques and their integration with other information.  The aim of this study is to validate the identified dust generation sources in Alborz province using time series of satellite data and meteorological stations data. In first step, OLI data of Landsat 8 during the years 2013 through 2015 were used to make maps of vegetation cover, soil moisture and land cover sensibility to wind erosion. These maps were combined with geology and roughness indices by multi-criteria evaluation method to obtain a map of sand & dust source potential areas. Also, based on the location of the intersection of the air flow with the surface of the earth and the application of masks of non-wind erodible areas on them, probable sand and dust sources were identified. These regions were integrated with the map of sand & dust source potential areas using the MCE method (WLC) and based on a stratified random sampling plan, susceptible sites of sand & dust sources were identified. Then in this research, the time series of satellite data and weather stations data were used and the trend of vegetation, soil moisture and surface temperature at the location of identified areas during a 15-year period were monitored. Product of LPRM_TMI_DY_SOILM3 from TMI sensor, data of 16-day vegetation, 8-day land surface temperature and data of aerosol optical depth from MODIS sensor were received. Also ground- based data of dust from synoptic and air pollution monitoring stations were received. Changes Trend analysis of soil moisture, temperature and vegetation cover was done during the period. Also aerosol optical depth in dust events with high concentration was evaluated for possible sources. In addition, the areas with higher dust optical depth than other areas were identified during the period. Finally, identified sources was validated using ground- based data of dust. The result of trend analysis showed a significant decrease in vegetation, soil moisture and land surface temperature at the place of possible dust sources during the studied period. Decreasing temperature in the southern part of Alborz Province and west of Tehran province was associated with higher frequency of dust in the area that shows why dust events has high frequency. Study of time series of aerosol optical depth data showed that concentration of dust is at or near the detected sources and the high concentration in this area is indicating identified areas are accurate. Checking optical depth in the event of high concentration and checking concurrent of air direction showed the detected sources has been correctly identified. Also Integration of dust information of synoptic and air pollution monitoring stations with the wind direction confirmed the high accuracy of identified dust sources. Overall, findings showed the ability time series of remote sensing data to validate dust storm sources. The results of the analysis of the time series of the satellite remote sensing data showed that the surface temperature as an important climatic parameter can be well used in the identification and validation of sand & dust sources. Based on the results of this analysis in areas where the frequency of sand & dust storm events is high, there is a significant decrease in the surface temperature. This is particularly evident in the annual maximum surface temperature in the southwestern part of Iran, an area that is considered to be the predominant trajectory of sand & dust storm.     TMI, MODIS, AOD, Trend of Remotely Sensed Time Series Data, TerrSet, Earth Trend Modeler http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2683-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2683-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Risk Assessment of Selected Path Railway between Isfahan and Ahvaz against Earthquake 19 32 FA M-Ghahroudi@sbu.ac.ir Y ghyasvand@yahoo.com N khodabandelo64@gmail.com N The earthquake is a natural disaster that damages structure and lifeline and is simply inserted into human artifacts. For this reason the structures and lifeline, earthquake loads shall estimate and in order to provide its design.in Iran earthquake, risk of natural disasters is dominant. It should be noted that Iran in recent years, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 Richter scale or more frequently experienced. Focus most historical and instrumental earthquake along the northern margin of two young belts (Kope-Dagh and Alborz Mountain) and south (Zagros Mountains to the northwest - southeast) is located. The relative risk of different regions in the 2800 earthquake building and Housing Research Center Indicate that is about 73 percent of the main lines of the rail network in the regions with high relative risk and especially the Zagros mountain areas are the greater risk of earthquake. Construction of railway lines between Esfahan and Ahvaz on stage in this research study that evaluated against earthquake risk path it has selected. The research study also Zagros mountain interval passes and bridges, tunnels and numerous curves. Rail between the two cities Esfahan and Ahvaz is studied.  In the years between 1050- 2011, more than 350 earthquakes occurred in the area, the biggest earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 Richter scale in 1384 had the highest value. In this area there are 615 fault reverse fault Zagros Iran’s biggest fault zones perpendicular to that direction. Distinguishing feature of this exist geomorphologic unit including   high Zagross (Lordegan - Brojen), Zagross folded (Baghmalek - Lordeghan) and Khuzestan plain (Ramhormoz - Ahvaz), in addition to different geological units covers. The beginning and end of the range in a wide range of railroad in Ahvaz not consolidate the young sedimentary soils passes, the diversity of geological formations in the Zagros that most of the sedimentary formations have been broken by numerous faults. Based seismic study in the south Zagros bar is located. In this study evaluated the risk period. The data used in this study are planned rail route Esfahan – Ahvaz  scale 1:250000 preparation of the Islamic republic of Iran railway research center, geological maps 1:100000  the geological survey Iran, satellite images IRS LISS III  the armed forces geographical organization, historical and device earthquake data geological survey. Thus, in the first stages of investigation historical and device earthquake based on semivariogram model and Kriging interpolation method, historical and device earthquake zones calculated. Fault lines of, geological maps 1:100000  mining and were used; of aster the 30 meter resolution ,slope ,Curvature, Profile, elevation it was prepared; lineaments, rippling unit, land use and vegetation cover of satellite images IRS LISS III it was prepared. For the analysis of variable composition due to the lack of homogeneity in terms of scale, the need to unify them was based on the degree of membership. Then, based on Gaussian fuzzy membership function was adjusted. In this study, sure to select the correct of gamma, merging were the values0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 0.95. Then, were evaluated by Statistical Zone and select suitable gamma. Obtained seismic zones on the basis of semivariogram model and Kriging interpolation method showed that rail lines in three intervals smaller than 4 Richter scale earthquake is facing. Whereas earthquake greater than 4.5 Richter scale on quaternary alluvial deposits are located, in addition to its range with a maximum magnitude of earthquakes on faults and lineaments as well as difference corresponded to the sudden formation. The case study is Iran’s biggest fault zones and more than 350 earthquakes occurred the 1000 year that adaptation layers fault, earthquakes and also historical earthquakes, indicates active region in terms of earthquake. Using a combination of variables of overlapping functions vegetation cover density, land use, historical earthquakes,4-5 earthquakes, greater than 5 earthquakes, change height level layer, slope, Curvature, Profile, faults and lineaments and drainage density layers; the amount of risk  in gamma0.8 earthquake was detected because the results showed that recent gamma have greatest difference between variables and classes risk. Zoning in 4 commodity risk respectively without risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk classified and two long range and a short interval of railway on the scope of their compliance with the maximum risk.   The results show that in terms of topography, geology and system faults and joints related fractures there are tremendous diversity that diversity causes the damage of the earthquake differently. In other words proved to be highly destructive earthquake with magnitude of this range is different. Most gender diversity in both land and exposed the fault lines pass through the system, is one of the Shareza to Ardekan and other the Ramhormoz to Baghmalek. So magnitude earthquake in rail track will be a lot of changes. The beginning and end of the rail passes of new alluvial sediments lands due to being detached and empty spaces, the near Esfahan and Ahvaz areas are involved in the escalation vulnerability. Deposits range in the vicinity Gandoman and of wheat rail lines Izeh the screw with range of motion will face intensified by the earthquake.  There convex reflects of Dizajan to Izeh intensification of earthquake in vulnerable parts of the range. Seismic records of more than 5 Richter scale and shallow depth because of lack of data has little effect the result of risk that need to be considered as evidence of potential risk.   Railway,Earthquake,Esfehan,-Ahvaz Railway. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2574-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2574-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Analysis of Thunderstorm Instability Indexes in Iran using Reanalysis Data 33 48 FA Firouz Mojarrad Geography Dept., Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Razi Univ., Kermanshah f_mojarrad@yahoo.com Y Samira Koshki Geography Dept., Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Razi Univ., Kermanshah koshkys@yahoo.com N Jafar Masompour Geography Dept., Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Razi Univ., Kermanshah J_masompour27@yahoo.com N Morteza Miri Clhmatology Dept., Geography Faculty, Tehran Univ., Tehran mmiri@alumni.ut.ac.ir N Thunderstorm is a destructive atmospheric phenomenon, which annually causes a lot of damage to various parts of human activities. Due to the accompaniment of thunderstorm with rainstorm and hail and its effective role in creating sudden floods, the analysis of the behavior of this hazard has been widely studied both in terms of agriculture and in terms of financial and life damages throughout the world. The study of thunderstorm as a hazardous atmospheric phenomenon using instability indexes in Iran has been less considered due to lack of observation stations. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) are two indexes that are often used to describe and detect thunderstorm environments. This study evaluates the thunderstorms in Iran with reanalysis data using CAPE and VWS indexes. Thunderstorm data in 7 different conditions at 8 times a day for 42 synoptic and upper air stations during a 37-year common period (1980-2016) was received from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. At first, frequency, trend and time of occurrence of thunderstorms in Iran were investigated during the statistical period. Then, the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with spatial resolution of 0.5 ° was used for the analysis of thunderstorms. To evaluate the ERA-Interim dataset, the CAPE and VWS values for the 80 selected thunderstorm events that were calculated using the RAOB software were compared with ERA data and their accuracy was confirmed. After confirming the accuracy of ERA data, the average values of CAPE and VWS indexes in 42 stations of the country were calculated based on 4,542 thunderstorm events at 00 and 12 GMT during the study period, and the maps of these two indexes were drawn up using the IDW method. Then, using an equation, the thunderstorm severity thresholds across the country were determined using ERA data with 4,542 thunderstorm events to distinguish between mild, severe and very severe storms. To ensure the selection of important storms, storms with CAPE values of less than 50 were removed to exclude poor environments for convection occurrence. As a result, out of 4,542 thunderstorms, 535 events were eliminated and 4007 events remained. On this basis, a "2 x 2 contingency table" was prepared that compares thunderstorm events and forecasts. This table provides the information required to compute warning performance statistics including POD (Probability of Detection), FAR (False Alarm Ratio) and CSI (Critical Success Index). But the results of these statistics did not match well with the conditions of thunderstorm events in Iran. Therefore, the discriminant analysis was used to differentiate the intensity of thunderstorms and to discriminate mild, severe and extremely severe thunderstorms. The results of the study showed that thunderstorms in Iran are increasing during the statistical period with a regression slope of 0.23 events per year (8.5 events in the statistical period). The highest frequency of thunderstorms was observed in the month of May with an annual number of 111, and the lowest was observed in January with 12 events. Most thunderstorms occur around 21:30. The highest average frequency of annual events at stations was related to the stations of Urmia, Tabriz, Khorramabad and Bushehr respectively. The proper capability of ERA data to estimate instability indexes in Iran was proved. ERA data provides a very near estimate for VWS, but estimates for the CAPE index are slightly more than observational values. The highest values of the CAPE index are observed in southern provinces, as well as in the southwest of the Caspian Sea coasts, and the highest values of the VWS index are found on the Persian Gulf coasts. When the storm severity breakdown equation for the 400 selected storm events was obtained and the "2 x 2 contingency table" was prepared, it was found that this equation was not satisfactory with respect to the POD, FAR, and CSI indexes. Hence, using the discriminant analysis, the storm severity breakdown relationships and their discriminant equations were obtained. These equations categorized 60% of the surveyed thunderstorms correctly. There is no significant difference between the mean values of CAPE and VWS in the three storm intensity groups. The role of the VWS index was higher in determining the type of storm. Thunderstorm, Iran, ECMWF, ERA-Interim Reanalysis Data, CAPE Index, VWS Index http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2721-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2721-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Quantifying vegetation health based on resilience 49 60 FA Marzieh Taabe Ph. D Student of Combat Desertification, Department of Desert Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Geo Sciences, University of Kashan - Researcher at South Khorasan Agriculture and Natural Resource Research Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Birjand, Iran marzieh.taabe@Gmail.com N Abolfazl Ranjbarfordoei Associate Professor of Desert Engineering, Department of Desert Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Geo Sciences, University of Kashan aranjbar@kashanu.ac.ir Y Hojat Mousavi Assistant Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Geography and Ecotourism, Faculty of Natural Resources and Geo Sciences, University of Kashan hmousavi15@kashanu.ac.ir N Mohammad Khosroshahi Associate Professor of Geography, Institute of Forest and Rangeland, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran khosro@rifr-ac.ir N The correct management in natural ecosystems is not possible without knowledge of the health in its sectors. Vegetation is the most significant sector in ecosystem that has important role in its health. Resilience is one of the defining features of health vegetation The term resilience was first introduced in the study of ecological systems and demonstrates the ability of the ecosystem to maintain its performance in the face of environmental disorders. A resilience-based system is not only equipped with a disorder adjustment mechanism but also has the potential to benefit from changes in a way that lead to creating an opportunity for development, innovation, and updating. Therefore, when a change occurs, the resilience provides the needed conditions for restarting and reorganization. If this goes beyond disturbing forces, the system will have the power to return to the maximum vegetation density with the least erosion effects, otherwise the system will be vulnerable to the change that was created and could already be controlled. This research was done in part of North east of South Khorasan province (arid climate) with the aim of quantifying vegetative resilience on behalf of ecosystem health in response to drought occurrences and long-term precipitation changes, as environmental disturbances. Therefore first, using daily precipitation data from 15 meteorological stations around the study area, their annual precipitation was extracted and was standardized by Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) over the course of thirty years (1986 - 2015). Then, the SPI index data in 15 stations were interpolated by ArcGIS software based on Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method and dry, wet and normal years was estimated in the study region for each year. On the other hand, from archive of satellite images of Landsat 5 and Landsat 7, an image was created for each year in study period, between 15 June and 15 July, with permanent coverage at the best of growth. Following the necessary corrections for satellite images, the average Transformed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TNDVI) was obtained of each image by ENVI software. Finally, effected of precipitation changes on mean TNDVI was assessed and vegetation resilience was stabilized whit selected of sever time period samples based on four effective parameters (Amplitude, Malleability, Damping and Hysteresis). Comparison of annual precipitation variations in the thirty-year time series (1986 -2015) indicated two approximate wet and dry periods in study area. The wet period is related to the first fourteen years of the time series (1986-1999) and the dry period is related to the last sixteen years (2000-2015). In this term, severe precipitation incidents with different intensities were occurred in the study area including one case of very intense precipitation (1986), one case of intense precipitation (1991) and two cases of moderate precipitation (1996 and 1992). Also, four drought incidents were occurred including one case of intense drought (2001) and three cases of moderate drought (1987, 2006 and 2008). All precipitations (wet years) are related to the first half and most droughts are related to the second half of the studied period. In this study for fixing of vegetation resilience in study area and for calculating of its parameters, In addition to the thirty-year time series selected sever time sections. in the whole study series (1986 - 2015), maximum of mean TNDVI (49.37 %) was in 1986 (reference), the lowest mean TNDVI (43.58%) was in 2010, The year effect of the decrease precipitation and drought, and mean TNDVI in 2015 was 44.28 %. Amount of parameters amplitude, malleability and damping are respectively 5.79, 0.7 and 5.09, and hysteresis was zero (%). The result of this case showed that the vegetation has moved towards the reference state (Resilience) but has not reached to amount of reference vegetation. The most specific cases for vegetation resilience happened from 1986 to 1996 (wet period) and 2003- 2009 time sector (dry period). In the first time section amount of amplitude and malleability were 0.64 %, damping was zero and hysteresis was 0.25%. The result of this case showed that not only the vegetation was returned to the reference state but also was increased to the reference (Cross reference).So despite the reduced rainfall and occurrence of sever occurrences of drought in dry period, hysteresis parameter (0.05 %) observed in 2003- 2009 time sector too that confirmed clearly vegetation health in study area whit dry climate. Awareness of the health status of the vegetation and its response to long-term precipitation changes and environmental disorders, such as drought occurrence, ensure the success of the managerial plans for renewable natural resources. The present study is the second study on quantifying the vegetation resilience and the first study under dry climatic conditions in Asia (an average annual precipitation of 160 mm) conducted in Iran by calculating four factors related to resilience, and is the first study that has presented the factor hysteresis in the calculations. Despite continuous of difficult condition, the native vegetation of the study area has been able to return the reference state not only by resolving the disorder relatively, but also it has experienced hysteresis stage. A set of quantitative calculations showed despite reduced annual precipitation and drought events, vegetation has been able to maintain its resilience, which indicates the health of the vegetation in the studied ecosystem. With the presence of such amazing protective and consistent mechanisms in the vegetation of arid regions, it is possible to maintain and restore these regions by proper managerial plans.   Ecosystem health, Resilience, Hysteresis, quantitative Study, Remote sensing, South Khorasan http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2690-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2690-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Monitoring and comparative analysis of meteorological drought on the groundwater level changes Marand plain 61 78 FA Bromand Salahi University of Mohaghegh Ardabili Bromand416@yahoo.com N Majid Rezaei Banafsheh Daragh University of of Tabriz mrbanafsheh@yahoo.com N Abdolreza Vaezi University of of Tabriz r.vaezi@tabrizu.ac.ir N Mojtaba Faridpour University of Mohaghegh Ardabili m.faridpour1366@yahoo.com Y Drought is a natural occurrence that occurs repeatedly or alternately and is likely to occur in almost every kind of climatic event. Also, the distinction between this phenomenon and other natural disasters is that unlike other disasters, this phenomenon gradually over a relatively long period of time to act and its effects may be delayed after a few years and more than any other natural disaster appears. Several indicators have been presented to decide the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological drought. These indicators are generally based on one or more climatic elements. The SPI and SWI indicators are similar in terms of ease in calculations and results, and use monthly precipitation data and monthly spatial data rates. The simultaneous effect of meteorological droughts on groundwater levels rarely happens. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of meteorological droughts on the groundwater level of Marand plain and calculates the time delay of drought on groundwater level. The study area in this study is Marand Plain in East Azarbaijan Province. In this research, we used meteorological data (average monthly rainfall) of 7 rain gauge stations during the statistical period (1980-2012), and the monthly water level data of 23 piezometric wells during the statistical period (2001-2011). The correlation between stations and piezometric wells and linear regression method was used to reconstruct the statistical defects, then SPI and SWI indices were used to study the rainfall and groundwater changes process and the analysis of drought conditions in the meteorological and underground watersheds. The SPI index is basically calculated for periods of 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months. Also, the standardized water level indicator (SWI) has been used as a criterion for assessing occur drought and wet years in the Marand plain. The purpose of the SWI index is to allow zoning of groundwater level fluctuations at the study area. Extraction of drought and wet year intensities in different scales and basin zonation for drought maps in Marand plain was first calculated by entering the monthly values in DIP software, SPI values for 12-month time series. SWI values were calculated from monthly data of piezometric stationary level surfaces, such as SPI values, with the help of DIP, Minitab and Excel software. Geostatistical Analyst was also used to decide the weather drought and groundwater drought periods for the ArcGIS software.     The results of the SPI values showed that meteorological drought is not of a definite local place, while groundwater droughts have not occurred randomly in the area and its concentration in the west of the aquifer is more than the east. Considering the increase in the area under cultivation, to compensate for the water needs of agricultural lands, an increase in the harvesting of underground water table has occurred in order to compensate for the need for water, indicating a tangible relationship between the rainfall and the level fluctuation in the Marand plain. Therefore, considering the increase in the area under cultivation during the years of drought in the region, the best correlation between them was -0.720 with a delay of 5 months, in order to investigate the effects of drought on the surface of the station, which was significant at 1% level It illustrates the impact of groundwater resources with a 5-month delay. Also, the results of the survey of monthly data of Marand plain surface during the statistical period (2001-2011) showed that the groundwater level of the plain had a negative trend that fell by about 2 meters. The SPI and SWI indices make it possible to calculate the start and end times of meteorological and groundwater droughts in a steady period of information computed by these indicators, as well as the severity, duration and frequency of droughts. Drought zoning maps using SPI and SWI values in the Arc Gis environment showed that meteorological droughts, due to the characteristics of droughts, do not have a definite spatial location, while droughts Underground water does not occur accidentally in the area and their concentration has been created at specific points in the aquifer, which have tropical and human stresses (in terms of excessive and permissible withdrawal). Although the weather factor has had the greatest impact on the level of stagnation in the Marand Plain in recent years, this crisis is the result of a set of factors, including free radicals, which is itself due to meteorological droughts; therefore, due to the trend of change The level of the stand is consistent with drought changes, it can be concluded that the drop in the surface of the Marand Plain is mainly affected by drought. According to the results of this study, it seems that continuous monitoring of drought situation and strong monitoring of harvesting, especially in severe and prolonged droughts, is very necessary to prevent a significant drop in groundwater level in the Marand plain Meteorological drought, Hydrogeological drought, SPI index, SWI index, Marand plain. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2686-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2686-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Investigating farmers’ behaviour management in drought period as prevention responses: the case of Dehloran district 79 92 FA asraa.farah1393@gmail.com N masoudyazdan@gmail.com Y m.forouzani@yahoo.com N jafar230@yahoo.com N Farmers in developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change effects, particularly drought. Drought is a serious and dangerous phenomenon in most part of the world particularly arid and semi aired region such as Iran and it is estimated that Middle East is expected to be particularly badly affected with a decline in precipitation of at least 40mm over the coming century. In Sum, drought is a recurring climatic event that can happen in all parts of the world. In terms of people affected, it is the number one risk of all natural hazards, with more than 1 billion people affected in the last decade. In fact, drought is considered as a disaster, causing heavy costs for farmers' livelihoods and agricultural systems. Therefore, most of the drought effects are in societies where agriculture is a major component of their economic activity. As such, the livelihoods of farmers that are among vulnerable communities is strongly affected. In other words, at the global scale, agriculture is by far the most important user of water and, as pressure on water resources increases, the need for new approaches to managing those resources is becoming more pressing. However strong evidences confirmed that farmers can actively response to drought and manage and reduce it effects. As such promoting farmers to actively response to drought is very urgent and necessary. First step to this policy is understanding farmers’ current situation and their intention and behaviour. In fact, understanding farmers’ perception toward drought is a key to preparing to reduce the effects of it. In other words, drought management relies heavily on farmers understanding how to reduce their water consumption and on applying their understanding to everyday activities so that they consume sustainably. Furthermore, attitudes of farmers toward drought and drought management are closely linked with their behavioral management and experience with past events (Yazdanpanah et al., 2013). Hence, attitude and past experience can affect the assessment of coping strategies in the future, which is especially important from a preventive action point of view (see Krömker and Mosler 2002).  Therefore, a deep and proper understanding of the factors that determine adaptation with the new conditions is very much needed. As such, the aim of this study is to investigating farmers’ intention and behaviour toward drought management. Among other dimensions it is assumed that psychological issues play an important role in predicting farmers’ intentions and actual responses, however, little research has focused on the psychological mechanisms that facilitate or constrain drought adaptation behavior. In this context, a study was carried out to identify the most prominent drivers of, and impediments to, drought adaptation, using health belief model. The Health Belief Model is an expectancy value model. According to this theory, an individual’s behavior is a utility of the probability of consequences accompanying with that behavior and the probable value or evaluation of those consequences. The overall desirability of the behavior is based on the summed products of the expectancy and value of consequences. Theory claims that health decisions are based on two major components. These are perception of threats and behavioral evaluation, which, in turn, is divided into four psychosocial sub-components (beliefs) the “threat perception” refers to a supposed vulnerability to a disease and estimated costs of this disease, while “behavioral evaluation” refers to benefits and barriers for adopting own behavior. Also based on these four beliefs, the HBM comprises other additional cognitive or motivational components to change or predict behavior, such as “cue to action” and “health motivation” or “general concern”. These components refer to the cause of health behavior, which, in turn, impacts the level of worry about health problems. Furthermore, Becker and Rosenstock (1987) added “perceived self-efficacy” as a perceived behavior control component to the HBM. While perceived self-efficacy originates from the social cognitive theory and refers to the degree, to which following a particular pattern of behavior is imaginable or unmanageable for the person and can enhance the predicted power of the model. The Health Belief Model was quantitatively tested using the survey methodology to understand farmers’ intention and behaviour. An in-depth literature review was used to develop the questionnaire to collect data for this study. Data were collected through personal interviews based on a structured questionnaire. The questionnaire was structured to assess the central components of the Health Belief Model. The questionnaire was used for a face-to-face survey with farmers. Answering time for the questionnaire was about 15-20 min. Researchers received all completed questionnaires directly after the survey; no intermediaries were involved into the analysis or interpretation of results. The questions were scored on a 1-5 point scale (very low, low, moderate, high, very high) to reduce the statistical problem of extreme skewness. Based on Ajzen's (1985) recommendations, scales containing multiple items were developed to measure each of the psycho-social variables. It is important to note that for assessed Health Belief Model variables we used items that closely follow the measurement of this constructs used in past studies. The statistical population of this study was the farmers of Dehloran city, located in the villages of Anaran, Seyyed Ebrahim, Seyyed Naseroddin, Abu Ghavir, Dasht-e-Abbas, Nahr Anbar. In order to determine the volume of the sample, the Kargets and Morgan tables (1970) were used. According to the size of the population (farmers in Dehloran city), the sample size was 320. In this study, a randomized cluster sampling method with proportional allocation was used. The reliability of the main scales of the questionnaires’ was examined by Cronbach Alpha coefficients, which ranged from 0.65 to 0.84, indicating the tool of study is reliable. A multiple step-wise regression analysis, with intention regarding response to drought as the variable, and with Health Belief Model variables as the framework, the results revealed that general beliefs, self-efficacy and perceived benefits are significant predictors. These three variables predicted 54% of the variance in intention regarding response to drought. Same regression was carried out so to determine factors that can predict farmers’ behaviour regarding drought management. The results revealed that intention, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability and perceived benefits are significant predictors of behaviour. These variables predicted 21% of the variance farmers’ behaviour toward drought management. Drought, adaptation, Health Belief Model, Dehloran http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2679-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2679-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 4 4 2018 1 1 Investigation of the hillslope stability of Javanrood using with the process-based model (sinmap) 93 109 FA parvin zarei parvinzarei8@gmail.com Y ali talebi talebisf@yazd.ac.ir N Mahmoud Alaei Taleghani malaee@ymail.com N Landslides are considered as natural disasters that lead to many deaths and severe property damages worldwide. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effective factors in order to make urgent planning and to present management solutions for the sensitive regions. Massive movement of materials, such as a landslide, is one of the problematic hillslope processes in Javanrood located in the northwest of folded Zagros, for this phenomenon leads to demolition of forest lands, farms, and pastures of the region. Moreover, it is considered as a threat for road traffic. The present study aims slope stability analyses and landslide hazard zonation applying the process-based model (Sinmap). This research was done by both field and experimental methods. Research steps are summarized as following. Geomorphologic, hydrologic and soil mechanic characteristics of slopes in the considered zone were the required information in this study. To obtain this information, at first, it was necessary to recognize sample slopes to measure the above- mentioned variables. Therefore, first of all, landslides distribution map was prepared in the considered area then, on this basin, sample slopes were selected to measure essential variables. Sample hillslopes were recognized as 12 hillslopes, 5 stable (lack of land sliding) and 7 unstable hillslopes (having land sliding mass). They were 1- 12 numbers. 1-5 hillslopes are stable and 6-12 unstable. After selecting sample hillslopes, necessary parameters were assessed as following: Mechanical features of soil: soil sampling from each hillslope was done the mechanical features of soil, so 50 kg soil was removed from each slope, from 75 cm to 1cm depth. In order to sampling soft and coarse soils, a core cuter devise and shovel were used, respectively. Sampled soils were transferred to Kermanshah soil mechanic laboratory, Kermanshah provincial transport office and necessary parameters, including dry soil specific weight(γ d), wet soil specific weight (γt), hydraulic conductivity , soil internal friction angle(φ) ,soil cohesion , and soil porosity were determined by using direct shear test. Determining the geometric parameters of slopes: except for using topography map, altitude numerical model (Dem) with a pixel size of 20 by 20 m and satellite images were used to determine morphology parameters and to identify various hillslope types. Applying GIS software, manual and laser tape measure, clinometer, slope geometry characteristics such as mean slope (beta), slope width (W), slope length (L) area, were extracted. Model implementation The model used in this study was Talebi (2008) model which was, in fact, an extended model of process-oriented (physically based) model, being a combination of geometry model, hydrology model (permanent condition) and infinite slope stability theory. After obtaining necessary parameters to get slope factor of security (F S) including laboratory, topography and hydrology parameters, Fs values for each slope were measured by Matlab software Unstable slopes of the region mainly have the stability coefficient less than 1 which is classified as very high vulnerable class. They have low inner friction angle, less than 29 degrees, based on geo-mechanic properties of soil. Moreover, their gradient angle is more than 35 percent. In term of shape, most of them have concave profile curvature and convergent plan which lead to slower drainage, the increase of relative saturation saving of the soil, and the decrease of stability. The results of the landslide hazard zonation mapping indicate that the majority of the study area located in protection class includes 26 percent of the study area. The lowest percentage of study area belonging to middle stability and quasi-stable classes which constitute 9.2 and 6.2 precent of the study area respectively. According to landslide hazard zonation applying the process-based model (Sinmap), it can be included that percentage of stability is less than percentage of instability in Javarood region. So that the highest percentage of area is located in the protective class (26 %) and high threshold of instability (15.9 %) and a lower percentage of the region is located as stable and quasi-stable (20 %).This results indicates  that the susceptibility of the scope of the study area in terms of inherent instability. So that natural factors (concave longitudinal profile and low friction, high angle of slope and high saturation coefficient) in these areas will certainly cause the landslide phenomenon. Therefore, this hillslopes will unstable under the influence of human activities such as leveling hillslope for the construction of residential or their road cutting. Landslide, Stability of hillslope, Process- based Model, Sinmap, Javanrood http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2606-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2606-en.pdf