دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 The impact of climate change on the amount and temporal distribution of snow melt run off in the Amir Kabir dam watershed 0 0 FA fatemeh falahati Natural Disaster Research Inistitute Falahati_fp@yahoo.com Y Bohlol Alijani Kharazmi University bralijani@gmail.com N mohammad saligheh Kharazmi University saligheh@khu.ac.ir N In many areas, snow cover in the mountains is a major source of surface and underground water supply. Due to climate change and its effect on the time of melting ,it  is very important for environmental planning to predict the arrival time of water from snow melt to water consumption cycle. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volumetric changes and time distribution of snow flood flows in future by integrating remote sensing , GIS and climatic models.The studied area is the Upper Basin of Amir Kabir Dam, which is located on the southern slopes of Alborz Mountains. In this study, digital elevation maps (DEM) and GIS software were used to estimate parameters such as area, environment, main length, highest and lowest elevation points. In order to complete the snow cover data, MODIS products (MOD10A100) were extracted and the snow cover was extracted in the Upper Basin of Amir Kabir Dam. Next, runoff and snow melting models were simulated using SRM software. Calibration and validation of the model's acceptable performance were estimated. Then, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on the future of snowmelt runoff production in the basin of Amir Kabir Dam, the latest CMIP5 climatic models were used under four scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A survey on the relationship between snow cover area , temperature and precipitation was used to predict snow cover in the future. The increase in temperature in the autumn and winter season has led to a reduction in the shape of precipitation in the form of snow, and as a result, the amount of snow storm is reduced. The results show that the amount of runoff in the autumn and winter increases due to increased rainfall in the form of rain, and it will be  increased late winter and spring due to the increase in the amount of water resulting from snow melting. The results of this study are based on the increase of snow melt as a result of increased runoff volume, reduction of snow reserves and maximum flow transmission to earlier than normal conditions due to early snow melting due to temperature rise. Generally, in the future, the average annual runoff will be decreased about 1.1 cubic meters per second, and the average annual melting share will be about 13.9% climate change, snow melting, MODIS, SRM model, exponential microscale models http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2842-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2842-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Analysis of the effect of hot oppressive climate on cardiovascular mortality in Tehran metropolitan: Synoptic climatological approach 0 0 FA Mahsa Sepasian kharazmi university std_mahsa.sepasian@khu.ac.ir N bohloul alijani Kharazmi university alijani@khu.ac.ir Y Mohammad Salighe Kharazmi university saligheh@khu.ac.ir N Mehry Akbary Kharazmi university mehryakbary@khu.ac.ir N Tehran metropolitan with its large population, daily migrant workforce and many students, needs to planning and designing watch/warning system to reduce the climatic problems for human health.for this purpose, we need to study the climate accurately and Since the factors affecting the climate of warm and cold periods in Iran are different, in this study , the meteorological variables of Tehran warm period (May to September 2002) turned into 4 components in Temporal Synoptic Index (TSI) using PCA Method and using P-Array and Varimax rotation.By the scores of components for each day, the clustering method (in ward method) were used and, the warm days of the year was divided into two cluster named favorable and oppressive airmasses. The average maximum air temperature that is more effective in mortality, was 36.13 ° C. Days with temperatures above  34 ° C, less pressure, mild winds , dryness and more sunshine resulted in more adverse weather conditions, which resulted in a 34% increasing in mortality compare with favorable weather. The total number of deaths from cardiovascular disease during the study period was 154046 that about  67%of deaths have been simultaneous with oppressive airmass.The epidemiological study of mortality also confirms the results of previous research in this area and shows that the incidence of mortality is higher in older people as well as in men. It is clear that not all mortality can be attributed to the effects of climate, but results show that change in climatic conditions will affect on mortality and also for study the effect of climatic hazards on human health, it is better that we study the effect of all variables together on humans. air masses, oppressive weather, mortality, cardiovascular diseases, warning systems, Tehran metropolitan http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3102-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3102-en.doc

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Spatial analysis and evaluation of pollution and health risk of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb) available in Tehran Dust fall 0 0 FA Fatemeh Arsalani Kharazmi University arsalani.f.64@gmail.com Y Bohloul Alijani Kharazmi University bralijani@gmail.com N Sabereh Arsalani shahed university saraarsalani9721@gmail.com N Dust fall means the dust that in the air fall down on the ground (Hai et al, 2008). it is important to study the extent of heavy metal contamination of dust fall due to their threats that could affect human health. Due to the fact that the metropolis of Tehran has a population of over eight million people and One of the major cities in the world is currently facing a severe air pollution problem. The purpose of the present study was to determine  the level of pollution and health risk of heavy metals such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb in the dust falling of Tehran city. the Dust fallout samples were collected using Marble Dust Collector (MDCO) from 28 different locations across Tehran during the statistical period (2018/03/21- 2018/06/21). We used XRF analysis To identify and determine the concentration of heavy metals (Cd,Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,Fe) in the collected dust. we used to spatial analysis to  determine Dispersion of pollution levels and health risk in different Zone of Tehran  city. In order to determine the level of pollution and Health Risk Assessment we used the pollution index (PI), integrated pollution index (IPI), Non-Carcinogenic Risk and Carcinogenic Risk. Based on the results of the calculations performed in the statistical period studied, the values of pollution index (PI) and integrated pollution index (IPI) are Pb> Cd> Cu> Cr> Ni, respectively. Accordingly, the regional trend of pollution from west to east is increasing. Therefore, Tehran's pollution index is high level of pollution in the most zone and and extremely high level of pollution in the eastern zone, which is a more worrying situation. Probably one of the reasons is the western winds, which are faster in the west than in the east. Also, Tehran's topographic pattern plays a role in this issue. Health risk assessment (HQ, HI, CR) showed that the contamination of the heavy elements studied was lower than the acceptable threshold for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. Therefore, it is not dangerous in terms of carcinogenicity. The risk of carcinogenicity and non-carcinogenicity in children and adults is higher in the southern and eastern zone of Tehran. Probably one of the reasons is the establishment of metal industries, cement production, sand mines and combustion processes in the south and west of Tehran metropolis. Spatial analysis, falling dust, Heavy metals, cancer risk, pollution index http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3129-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3129-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Indexing and effect of Regional Pressure Centers on Rainfall on the Northern Shores of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman 0 0 FA halimeh kargar Kharazmi University halime_hh@yahoo.com Y Kharazmi University alijani@khu.ac.ir N Mohammad saligheh Kharazmi University saligheh@khu.ac.ir N mehry akbary Kharazmi University Mehryakbary@khu.ac.ir N Conclusion The results showed that the length of the precipitation period in the study area is 8 months (out of 213 systems, 60 systems were recorded in January and 50 systems were recorded in December). June, July, August and December did not have a comprehensive rainfall system. The difference in height between the Mediterranean Cyclone  and the Arabian Anticyclone, i.e. the MAI index, was identified in 5 categories. The results showed that the higher the value of MAI index, the less rainfall systems and the higher the rainfall intensity. Most rainfall systems occur when the MAI index reaches 100 to 150 geopotential meters. In addition, the concentration of precipitation occurred in February when the MAI index reached 200 geopotential meters and above. In the continuation of the research, the difference between the Sudan Cyclone and Arabian Anticyclone, i.e. the SAI index, was also identified in 5 categories. The results showed that most of the systems occurred in the third category with a value of SAI index between 100 and 150 geopotential meters. Moreover, the results showed that the higher the value of the SAI index (, the lower the number of rainfall systems and the higher the average of rainfall systems. MAI Index, SAI Index, Coastal Rainfall, Arabian Anticyclone, Sudan cyclone, Mediterranean cyclone http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3235-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3235-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Analyzing synoptic-dynamic patterns and examining the trend of changes in wide snowfall in the western half of Iran 0 0 FA Sharifeh Zarei Sharife.za68@yahoo.com N Bohloul Alijani bralijani@gmail.com Y Zahra Hejazizadeh hedjazizadeh@yahoo.com N Bakhtiar Mohammadi b.mohammadi@uok.ac.ir N In this research, the most important synoptic patterns of widespread snowfall in the western half of Iran have been investigated. For this purpose, the data of current weather code and snow depth of 36 synoptic stations during the statistical period of 1371-1400, for the months of October to March, were received from the Meteorological Organization of the country. In order to investigate wide snowfalls, the days when more than 70% of the studied area saw snowfall at the same time were extracted as a wide day. In order to perform synoptic-dynamic analysis of wide snowfalls in the western half of Iran, the classification method using cluster analysis was used and maps of representative days were drawn, including atmospheric temperature, moisture flux, geopotential height, tovai, front formation, jet stream, omega index, and orbital and meridian wind data. Trend analysis was also performed using the Mann-Kendall test.  The results showed that 4 models justify the widespread snowfall in the studied area in the best way. According to the results in all the models, at sea level, the collision of cold and dry air of northern latitudes with warm and humid air of southern latitudes has caused the formation of frontal fields in the western half of Iran. At the level of 500 hectopascals, the intensification of the meridional currents in the western winds caused the creation of closed centers and as a result the flow changed in the direction of the westerly winds, and the location of the western half of Iran in the east of Naveh Al-Aghti and Sardchal has provided the necessary conditions for air to rise. Also, there was no trend in the number of snow days in the western half of Iran at the significant levels tested. But; The number of snow days has been decreasing over time. In general, it can be concluded that due to the warming of the earth and climate change, the number of snowy days has decreased and these changes have led to a significant shortening of the snow season. Synoptic_dynamic patterns, changes trend, wide snowfall, Iran http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3380-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3380-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Assessment of subsidence risk in Eyvanakey plain using Environmental factors and radar images 0 0 FA Amir Saffari University of Kharazmi saffari@khu.ac.ir Y Ali Ahmadabadi University of Kharazmi ahmadabadi@khu.ac.ir N Amieali Abbaszadeh University of Kharazmi amirali.abbaszadeh@yahoo.com N Subsidence is one of the most important natural hazards that has affected many plains of the country in recent years. Eyvanakey plain in Semnan province is among the plains that have faced this danger. Due to the importance of the subject, in this research, the evaluation of the subsidence risk and the estimation of the subsidence rate in this plain have been done. In this research, Sentinel 1 radar images, Landsat satellite images and SRTM 30 meters high digital layer are used as the most important research data. The most important research tools are GMT, ArcGIS and Super Decisions. Also, Fuzzy-ANP logic and SBAS time series models have been used in this research. This research has been done in two stages, in the first stage, the assessment of the subsidence risk and in the second stage, the estimation of the rate of subsidence in Eyvanakey Plain. Based on the results, 251 square kilometers of the study area (equivalent to 58.5% of the area) has a high and very high risk of subsidence, which mainly corresponds to the southern areas of the Eyvanakey Plain. Also, the results of the SBAS time series method have shown that the Eyvanakey plain has subsided between 28 and 533 mm during a period of 6 years. Considering that, the high risk class has the highest amount of subsidence in the study area, so it can be said that there is a strong relationship between the subsidence risk classes with radar images and the accuracy of the results of the subsidence risk classes is confirmed.   Subsidence risk, SBAS time series, Eyvanakey Plain http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3439-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3439-en.doc

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Assessing the Spatial-Physical Resilience of District 2 of Karaj Metropolitan Area Based on Sustainability Criteria in Facing Environmental Hazards 0 0 FA Alireza Rahimi Mahmoodabadi Department of Urban planning, Ki.C., Islamic Azad University, Kish, Iran ar.rahimi1988@gmail.com N Navid Saeedi Rezvani Assistant Professor of Urban Planning, Faculty of Society and Media, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran navidsaeidirezvani@yahoo.com Y Iraj Ghasemi Assistant Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, Research Institute of Humanities and Social Studies, Tehran, Iran. i-ghaswmi@ut.ac.ir N introduction: Resilience is the key to urban sustainability, and by reducing vulnerability, it creates a sustainable environment for cities and plays a fundamental role in reducing urban vulnerability to environmental hazards. Methods: The present research method is descriptive-analytical and applied in terms of purpose. The aim is to measure the resilience level of District 2 of Karaj and identify its strengths and weaknesses in facing environmental hazards. The research combines data from statistical documents, written reports, and questionnaire data obtained from surveys. The statistical sample consists of 30 experts related to crisis management in District 2 of Karaj, selected through the snowball sampling method. Data analysis was performed using mean statistics, standard deviation, and factor analysis. Results: The results indicate that enhancing the resilience of this area through improving the quality of physical infrastructure, better construction management, adherence to architectural standards, and urban planning principles can reduce vulnerability and create a sustainable and resilient environment. Additionally, the evaluation of building sustainability shows that the average index in District 2 was 4.45. The average indices for spatial organization were 4.43, geographical characteristics were 4.57, and infrastructure sustainability was 4.8. This indicates a favorable status of resilience and sustainability indices in District 2 of Karaj. Conclusions: Factor loadings show that the coefficients are above 0.6, confirming the validity of the resilience indices. Therefore, the urban resilience and sustainability of the region can be evaluated as favorable to highly favorable.   Spatial-Physical Resilience, Urban Sustainability, Environmental Crises, Vulnerabilities, District 2 of Karaj Metropolitan Area. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3488-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3488-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 The interaction of climate, geomorphology and hydrology in creating environmental hazards in Saluk National Park and Protected Area 0 0 FA Gholam Reza Maghami Moghim Damghan University gh.maghami@du.ac.ir Y Objective: “The main and overall objective of this research was to identify natural hazards threatening Saluk National Park and Protected Area. In this regard, based on the assumptions of this research, in addition to the main objective, three sub-objectives were also determined for it. The sub-objectives include identifying hazards arising from climatic, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions. Method: This research was conducted using field and library methods and descriptive analytical methods. The aim of the field studies was to identify the plant and animal species of this park and protected area, which was done using interviews with environmentalists, people living in villages adjacent to the park, and the results of censuses conducted by the Environment Organization. In library studies, concepts and definitions related to the environment and natural hazards were extracted from books available in libraries and documents of the Environment Organization. Statistics from meteorological stations in the region were used to study the climate of the region. Results: Initial studies suggested that climatic, geomorphological, and hydrological hazards may be the most important natural hazards of the park. Based on the studies, climatic hazards including drought, frost, and frost have greater impacts in the study area. Geomorphological hazards of the park resulting from external dynamic processes including landslides, landslides, and erosion are ranked second, and hydrological hazards, especially river floods in the eastern part of the park in the Ruin River valley and the southern alluvial fans of the park, are ranked third. Conclusions: The most important conclusion of this research is that the natural hazards of this park naturally act as an ecological moderator. And these hazards can have detrimental effects on this park when they interact with negative human interventions, but if they are aligned with positive human actions, their effects will not have a significant destructive impact on this park.   Keywords: natural hazards, national parks, protected areas, Saluk, Esfrain http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3422-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3422-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Analysis of Convective Rainfall Events in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province 0 0 FA Shokoufeh Omidi Ghaleh Mohammadi University of Yazd omidish118@yahoo.com N Ahmad Mazidi* University of Yazd mazidi@yazd.ac.ir Y kamal Omidvar University of Yazd komidvar@yazd.ac.ir N Objective: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, due to its mountainous location and exposure to Mediterranean and Sudanese synoptic systems, has experienced intense rainfall events and considerable hydrological fluctuations in recent years. These conditions have often led to flash floods and posed serious threats to regional water resources. Accordingly, this study aimed to analyze rainfall intensities, estimate their values for different return periods, and construct Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves as well as spatial distribution maps for four synoptic stations: Kouhrang, Farsan, Shahr-e-Kord, and Borujen. Methods: Precipitation data over a 20-year period (2000–2020) were collected, and rainfall intensities were calculated for durations ranging from 15 to 1440 minutes. Maximum rainfall intensities corresponding to return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years were then estimated using several statistical distributions, including Gumbel, Normal, Pearson type V, and Weibull. Goodness-of-fit tests were applied to identify the most suitable distribution. In addition, spatial interpolation methods within a GIS environment were employed to illustrate spatial patterns of rainfall intensity across the province. Findings: Results indicated that the Gumbel distribution provided the best fit to the observed data. It was also revealed that rainfall intensity decreases with increasing duration, while it increases with longer return periods. Spatial analyses showed that the highest intensities occur in the northwestern mountainous areas, particularly at Kouhrang station, and gradually decrease toward the southern and eastern parts of the province. Conclusion: The findings confirm that statistical distributions—particularly the Gumbel model—enable accurate modeling of extreme rainfall events in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. Moreover, the spatial variability of rainfall intensity highlights the necessity of incorporating such patterns into hydrological infrastructure design, flood management, and water resource planning. Keywords: Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF), Convective Rainfall, IDF Curves, Spatial Distribution, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari   Intensity-Duration-Frequency, Convective Rainfall, IDF Curves, Spatial Distribution, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3496-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3496-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Assessment of the Status and Analysis of Factors Affecting Land Subsidence in Urban and Suburban Areas of Garmsar 0 0 FA Mehdi Safari Namivandi University of Police Sciences m.safarinamevandi@khu.ac.ir Y Alimohammad Gholami Razi University ali.gholamii1974@gmail.com N Parastoo GhaforpurAnbaran Parastooghaforpur@yahoo.com N Kamyar Emami emami.kamyar@ut.ac.ir N Objective: Land subsidence is one of the hazards that affect many plains in Iran, including the plains of Semnan province. Given that the risk of subsidence is associated with many harmful effects, this study evaluates the subsidence situation in the urban area and urban outskirts of Garmsar and analyzes the factors affecting its occurrence. Methods: In this research, Sentinel 1 radar images, Landsat satellite images and information related to groundwater resources of the region have been used as the most important research data. The most important research tools have been ArcGIS, GMT and Google Earth Engine software. In this research, first, using the SBAS time series method, a map of the subsidence rate of the region has been prepared and then its relationship with the decline of groundwater resources and the type of land uses of the region has been investigated. Results: Based on the results obtained, the study area has subsided between 12 and 79 mm during a one-year period (from January 2021 to January 2022), with the highest rate of subsidence in the southern outskirts of Garmsar city. Conclusions: The results of this study also showed that the annual decline in groundwater resources in the southern wells of the region was more than 2 meters, and given that the highest rate of subsidence was also related to these areas, it can be said that the main reason for the subsidence of the region was the decline in groundwater resources. Also, based on the results, the development of human constructions, especially heavy structures, has been effective in intensifying the subsidence that has occurred.   Subsidence, Environmental factors, SBAS, time series Garmsar http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3489-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3489-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Evaluating the conformity of villagers\' performance in the field of crisis management with the framework of the description of duties of the villager\'s institution 0 0 FA Maryam Ghasemi Ferdowsi University of Mashhad magh30@um.ac.ir Y Monir Sayah Ferdowsi University of Mashhad monirsayah@yahoo.com N Atena Vatankhah Ferdowsi University of Mashhad At.vatankhahnoghani@stu-mail.um.ac.ir N Rural areas, due to their close relationship with the natural environment and having limited capabilities, are highly vulnerable in the face of crises. With the establishment of village councils as a rural management institution in the country's villages, a suitable opportunity was provided to follow up, establish and continue the programs related to safety and crisis management in the rural community. Based on this, the aim of the current research is to measure the performance of fifth and sixth grade villagers in rural crisis management. The studied area is the central part of Bojnord city in North Khorasan province. The research method of the present study is descriptive-survey. In terms of the practical purpose and from the perspective of time, it was carried out in two periods of 1397 and 1401. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. According to the description of the tasks of the rural organization, 14 tasks have been defined in the field of crisis management for villagers in three stages before, during and after the crisis. Out of a total of 77 inhabited villages, the villagers of 44 villages in the central part of Bojnord city, a total of 88 villagers have answered the questions of the questionnaire at two points in time. Data analysis was done using independent two-sample t-test and one-sample t-test in SPSS software. The results showed that 99% of the surveyed villages are exposed to floods and 95% are exposed to earthquakes. In order to compare the performance of the villagers according to the duties of the village organization, in the fifth (2018) and sixth (2024) periods, the t-test of two independent samples was used. The difference between the average performance of the villagers in the previous, during and after stages and in total the performance of the villagers in the fifth and sixth periods is average and not significant. Finally, due to the absence of a significant difference between the average performance of villagers in the fifth and sixth period, the average performance of 88 villagers in both periods was investigated with the theoretical median   crisis management, rural settlements, description of villagers' duties. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3472-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3472-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Title: An Examination of the Legal Challenges of Local Governance in Enhancing Urban Resilience and Providing Reform Solutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran 0 0 FA jafar Amin moghadam Islamic Azad University, Yazd Jafar.aminimoghadam@iau.ac.ir N Mohamadreza Baharestanfar Faculty Member, Islamic Azad University, Taft Branch M.reza.6161@gmail.com Y Mohammad-Hossein Jafari Faculty Member at Islamic Azad University, Yazd Branch mohammadhossein.jafari@iau.ac.ir N Objective: This study investigates the legal challenges impeding local governance in Iran from enhancing urban resilience. Despite constitutional recognition, local bodies are hampered by a centralized system, legal ambiguity, and a lack of independence. The research aims to systematically analyze these challenges and propose reform solutions to improve the relationship between central and local authorities. Methods: The research employs a descriptive-analytical method, utilizing a review of legal documents and a comparative analysis with international experiences to dissect existing legal issues and propose reforms. Results The findings reveal a significant gap between the ideals of participatory democracy and good governance, and Iran's reality. An institutionalist approach shows that while formal structures like councils exist, they are undermined by a weak participation culture, lack of financial and decision-making autonomy, and ineffective accountability mechanisms. This prevents the realization of true democracy and effective local governance, rendering citizen participation merely instrumental. Conclusions: In conclusion, Iran's local governance is semi-functional and inadequate for crisis management. A multi-level reform agenda is essential, including constitutional revision, a comprehensive local governance law to ensure autonomy, and the creation of sustainable financial resources. Enhancing transparency and institutionalizing citizen participation are also critical. However, these legal and structural reforms will only succeed with a fundamental shift in political culture towards accepting responsible decentralization.   Local Governance, Decentralization, Islamic Councils, Legal Structure, Institutional Reforms, Public Participation. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3524-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3524-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Flood Hazard Zoning in Sari County Using Machine Learning Algorithms and an Ensemble Approach 0 0 FA Komei Abdi University of Mazandaran komeil.abdi69@gmail.com N hematolah Roradeh University of Mazandaran h.roradeh@umz.ac.ir Y Objective: Floods are among the most significant natural disasters in Mazandaran Province, particularly in Sari County, where they cause widespread economic, social, and environmental damages each year. The main objective of this research is to identify and map flood hazard zones using machine learning algorithms, namely Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and to apply an ensemble approach in order to enhance prediction accuracy and reduce model uncertainty. Method: In this study, a set of spatial datasets including a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/land cover derived from satellite imagery, geomorphological indices (slope, aspect, and drainage density), geological data, distance from roads and streams, vegetation index (NDVI), and climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) were collected. These datasets were processed using GIS and RS techniques and prepared for model training and validation. The models’ performance was assessed using evaluation metrics such as Accuracy, F1-score, AUC, and ROC curve analysis. Findings: The results indicated that both RF and SVM demonstrated high performance in flood hazard mapping, as reflected by strong evaluation metrics. Moreover, the ensemble approach improved prediction reliability and reduced errors compared to single-model predictions. The generated maps revealed that a significant portion of Sari County falls within high and very high hazard zones, which overlap with are::as char::acterized by intense rainfall, high drainage density, and steep slopes. Conclusion: This research highlights that machine learning algorithms, particularly when applied in an ensemble framework, are powerful tools for identifying flood-prone areas. The findings can serve as a scientific basis for urban planning, disaster management, and flood risk reduction strategies in Sari County and other comparable regions.   : Ensemble Approach, Flood, Hazard Zoning, Machine Learnig, Random Forest (RF), Sari County Support Vector Machine (SVM), http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3526-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3526-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Environmental Risk Assessment in Tourism Destinations and Strategies for Reducing It in Dezful County 0 0 FA Azim Azim255@gmail.com N Moslem Savari Savari@asnrukh.ac.ir Y farhad.javan91@yahoo.com N Objective: Risk assessment in tourism destinations plays an important role in maintaining tourist safety and environmental sustainability. Identifying potential threats such as natural disasters, overcrowding, cultural damage, and social hazards provides the basis for more accurate planning and more effective tourism management. The present study was conducted with the aim of assessing environmental risks in the tourist areas of Dezful County. Methods: The statistical population included tourists from rural areas of Dezful County, which, according to the statistics of the Cultural Heritage Organization, are visited by more than 10 million people annually. The sample size was determined as 384 people using the Krejci and Morgan table, and sampling was carried out randomly. In this study, 33 villages in four districts of the county were examined. The data were analyzed using a questionnaire and confirmatory factor analysis. Results: According to the results of the study, only the Choghamish district faces high political risks, and the other districts have a moderate threat in this area. In the area of financial and economic risks, the matter is different, and only the central district faces a moderate threat, and the other districts face a high level of threat. However, the most important result of this study was in the area of social risks, where all districts showed a low level of threat, which indicates appropriate security and comfort for tourists traveling to this city. The results of the study also show a moderate level of environmental risks in the Shahyoun, Sardasht, and Choghamish districts, and even in the central district, these risks are in the low priority range. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis of tourism risk reduction strategies in Dezful city were classified into information and educational factors, legal and security factors, precautionary factors, and infrastructure factors. Conclusions: The present study showed that social risks in Dezful county are at a low level and the security of tourists is ensured. However, economic and environmental risks in some sectors require more attention and management. Implementing the proposed solutions can help improve the quality of the tourism experience and the sustainable development of the region.   Risk reduction, rural tourists, tourist destinations, natural hazards, Shushtar County http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3522-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3522-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Land, Political Ecology, and Spatial Resilience: Mechanisms of Land-Use Change in Tension with Spatial Resilience and Passive Defense (A Case Study of Shemiranat County – Lavasanat Region) 0 0 FA Mehrdad Karami Tarbiat modares uni karami2888@gmail.com Y Mohamadreza Pourjafar Tarbiat modares uni pourja_m@modares.ac.ir N The phenomenon of land-use change in the peripheral areas of Tehran Metropolis, particularly within the Lavasanat region, has transformed over the past two decades from a merely physical and economic process into a strategic issue in spatial governance, territorial resilience, and passive defense. This study aims to elucidate the institutional, spatial, and ecological mechanisms influencing land-use change and its consequences for the region’s spatial resilience, adopting an integrated approach and employing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from three main sources: content analysis of legal and policy documents related to land management, semi-structured interviews with experts and local officials, and spatial analysis of land cover data using a land-use change prediction model. Findings indicate that land-use change in Lavasanat results from the simultaneous interaction of three levels of action: the degradation of ecological structures—which has reduced the land’s natural capacity to absorb and mitigate environmental hazards—, institutional weaknesses that have undermined land monitoring and control, and spatial concentration that has heightened exposure to risks. Concurrent with the sharp decline of agricultural lands and the loss of natural buffer zones, these transformations have weakened environmental functions, intensified physical vulnerability, and reduced the efficiency of passive defense. Analytical results suggest that Lavasanat is undergoing a transition from a stable spatial system to a fragile and defenseless one. The process of land-use change in this region is not merely the outcome of demographic or economic pressures but rather a reflection of the disruption in spatial governance and institutional deficiencies in land management. Consequently, what appears outwardly as "development" has, in practice, led to a gradual process of "territorial defenselessness" and the erosion of both ecological and institutional resilience.   Land-use change, spatial resilience, passive defense, political ecology, unsustainable development, Lavasanat http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3535-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3535-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Analyzing the effects of risks and hazards of rural ecosystems on the development of various types of rural tourism 0 0 FA Milad Heydari Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari. Iran miladhidari@gmail.com N Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari. Iran razzaghi.fatemeh@gmail.com Y Ali Akbar Barati Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. aabarati@ut.ac.ir N Taher Azizi Khalkheili Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Crop Sciences, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari. Iran t.azizi@sanru.ac.ir N Objective: A major part of rural risk, such as production risks, economic risks, and severe climate changes, is related to agricultural risks, which have significant negative impacts on the agricultural sector. This study aimed to investigate the effects of risks and hazards of the rural ecosystem on the development of various types of rural tourism in the rural tourism area of ​​Mahmoudabad County, located in Mazandaran Province, in order to examine the development of various types of rural tourism as a strategy for resilience and adaptation of villagers, as well as a preventive strategy in villages against economic, environmental, and social shocks, as well as reducing vulnerability and diversifying the rural economy. Methods: The research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive (non-experimental) and correlational (variance matrix analysis) in terms of data collection method with the aim of showing the relationship between variables. The study population included all 88 villages in Mahmudabad city. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire and the respondents were the villagers. The structural equation modeling (SEM) method based on Smart-PLS was used to analyze the data. Results: The results of the research on prioritizing dimensions and hazard and risk items for rural ecosystem assessment show that economic, environmental, and social risks were ranked in priorities one to three, respectively. Based on the path coefficient (pc), only the direct effect of environmental pressure (with a path coefficient of 0.338 and a T-value of 2.467) was significant. About 30 percent of the changes in the development of tourism types are explained by the proposed model with the direct effect of environmental hazards and the indirect effect of economic hazards and social hazards. Conclusions: As a general conclusion, the types of rural tourism in the region should be given serious attention as opportunity driven entrepreneurship and necessity driven entrepreneurship. In this regard, recognizing ecological values ​​through education and long-term propaganda for the sustainable development of rural livelihoods with emphasis on the development of green tourism, ecotourism, and agrotourism is recommended Rural resilience, Green tourism, Social risks, Economic risks, Environmental risks. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3521-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3521-en.docx

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 1 Evaluation of Green Infrastructure Benefits Using I-Tree Canopy Software (Case Study: El-Goli Park, Tabriz) 0 0 FA Sama Abdollahi Milani Islamic Art University of Tabriz, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning sama27milani@gmail.com N Sama Rahmani Islamic Art University of Tabriz, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning mina.rahmani.tiau2023@gmail.com@gmail.com N Javad Imani Shamloo Islamic Art University of Tabriz, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning j.imani@tabriziau.ac.ir Y Objective: The study aims to evaluate the ecological, environmental, and economic services provided by urban vegetation within the El-Goli green network in Tabriz. Specifically, it focuses on assessing the role of green infrastructure in mitigating urban environmental challenges through carbon sequestration, air pollution reduction, and surface runoff management. The research seeks to provide insights that support informed urban planning and the sustainable expansion of green spaces. Methods: This study is a quantitative research that employed library-based methods (literature review, definitions of urban green infrastructure, and expert opinions) and field observations, combined with statistical analysis using i-Tree software for data collection. Data analysis was conducted using a descriptive-analytical approach, and the results are presented in tables. Evaluation Parameters: The ecosystem services assessed in this study include carbon sequestration and storage, air pollution reduction, and stormwater management.Assessment Parameters: Key ecosystem services evaluated include carbon capture and storage, air pollution reduction, and surface runoff management. Results: The El-Goli green network in Tabriz sequesters approximately 75.84 tons of carbon annually. The green network removes about 2,077 tons of air pollutants per year. Among the pollutants analyzed, ozone was the most effectively removed, while carbon monoxide showed the lowest removal rate. The findings underscore the significant role of the El-Goli green network in improving urban air quality and contributing to climate change mitigation. Conclusions: This study used i-Tree Canopy 7.1 to assess the ecosystem services of El-Goli Park in Tabriz from ecological and economic perspectives. The vegetation area was measured, and trees and shrubs were counted to estimate carbon storage, air pollutant removal, and surface runoff mitigation. Results showed that the park annually sequesters 75.84 tons of carbon, removes 2,077 kg of air pollutants, and mitigates 1.92 liters of surface runoff. Considering the software’s limitations, it is recommended that ecosystem productivity in the park and other urban green spaces be enhanced through the protection of valuable trees, increasing effective plant species, developing dense vegetation cover, and implementing bioretention networks. Carbon Sequestration ,Air Pollution, Urban Green Network, Ecosystem Services, Environment, Tabriz http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3503-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3503-en.doc