دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Simulation of Zanjan temperature trends based on climate scenarios and artificial neural network method 1 20 FA Leila Ahadi leila.ahadi70@gmail.com Y Hossein Asakereh asakereh1@yahoo.com N Younes Khosravi Khosravi@znu.ac.ir N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.1 Simulation of Zanjan temperature trends based on climate scenarios and artificial neural network method Abstract Severe climate changes (and global warming) in recent years have led to changes in weather patterns and the emergence of climate anomalies in most parts of the world. The process of climate change, especially temperature changes, is one of the most important challenges in the field of earth sciences and environmental sciences. Any change in the temperature characteristics, as one of the important climatic elements of any region, causes a change in the climatic structure of that region. The summary of the investigated experimental models on climate change shows that if the concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the same way, the average temperature of the earth will increase dangerously in the near future. More than 70% of the world's CO2 emissions are attributed to cities. It is expected that with the continuation of the urbanization process, the amount of greenhouse gases will increase. According to the fifth report of the International Panel on Climate Change, the average global temperature has increased by 0.85 degrees Celsius during 1880-2012. Therefore, knowing the temperature changes and trends in environmental planning based on the climate knowledge of each point and region seems essential. For this reason, the present study simulates the daily temperature (minimum, maximum and average) of Zanjan until the year 2100. Research Methods The method of conducting the research is descriptive-analytical and the method of collecting data is library (documents). To check the temperature of Zanjan city, the minimum, maximum and average daily temperature data from Hamdeed station of Zanjan city during the period of 1961-2021 were used. The data of general atmospheric circulation model was used to simulate climate variables (minimum, average and maximum temperature) using artificial neural network and climate scenarios in future periods. The output variables in this study are minimum, maximum and average daily temperature. Therefore, three neural network models were selected. For model simulation, model inputs (independent variables) need to be selected from among 26 atmospheric variables. Therefore, two methods of progressive and step-by-step elimination were chosen to determine the inputs of the model. In these methods, climate variables that have the highest correlation with minimum, maximum and average daily temperature were selected. By using RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, variables were simulated until the year 2100. Markov chain model was used to check the possibility of occurrence of extreme temperatures of the simulated values. results According to the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and the simulation made by the neural network model, it is possible that on average the minimum temperature will be 3.6 degrees Celsius, the average temperature will be 3.3 degrees Celsius and the maximum temperature will be 2.7 degrees Celsius. Celsius will rise. The monthly review of the simulated data for all scenarios and the observed data of the studied variables shows that the average minimum, average and maximum temperatures in January and February, which are the coldest months of the year, will increase the most and become warmer. While the average minimum temperature in August, the average temperature in April and the maximum temperature in October will have the least increase. According to the simulated seasonal temperature table based on all scenarios, it was found that the average minimum, average and maximum temperature observed with the maximum simulated conditions were 6.9, 5.5 and 5.4 respectively in the winter season, and 3.3 in the spring season. 4, 2.3 and 3, in the summer season it increases by 3.3, 3.4 and 1.4 and in the autumn season it increases by 4.6, 4.5 and zero degrees. The frequency of extreme temperatures observed in all three variables of minimum, average and maximum temperature for the 25th and 75th quartiles is less than the number of occurrences of extreme temperatures simulated in all three scenarios. Based on this, all three variables will increase and there will be fewer cold periods. An increase in night temperature and average temperature in winter season and maximum temperature in summer season will occur more than other seasons. The difference between day and night temperature will be less in autumn and summer. Also, all seasons, especially the summer season, will be hotter and the occurrence of extreme temperatures is increasing for the coming years. Keywords: climate scenarios, simulation, extreme temperatures, artificial neural network, Zanjan   climate scenarios, simulation, extreme temperatures, artificial neural network, Zanjan http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3350-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3350-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Analysis of occurrence potential of the earth/debris flow and shallow landslides using the TRIGRS model (Case study: babolrood Basin, Mazandaran) 21 44 FA Ali Abdinezhad University of Tehran abdinezhad@ut.ac.ir N Mojtaba Yamani University of Tehran myamani@ut.ac.ir N Jafar Hassanpour University of Tehran hassanpour@ut.ac.ir Y Abolghasem Goorabi University of Tehran goorabi@ut.ac.ir N Mostafa Karimi AhmadAbad University of Tehran mostafakarimi.a@ut.ac.ir N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.21 Analysis of occurrence potential of the earth/debris flow and shallow landslides using the TRIGRS model (Case study: Babolrood Basin, Mazandaran) In this study, the occurrence potential of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Babolrood basin has been investigated. In this basin, due to the mountainous topography and the presence of loose organic soils, the potential of such landslides is high, and landslides of different sizes occur every year after long and intense rainfalls. These landslides, which start with the sliding mechanism in the upper parts of the soil cover, immediately turn into earth/debris flows, and from their joining together, large flows may form downstream of the basin, which is considered a destructive phenomenon. In this research, to investigate the effect of rainfall on the occurrence of shallow landslides and flows, the TRIGRS program, which is a comprehensive and grid-based program for slope stability analysis using the infinite slope method, has been used. In this program, the effect of rainwater penetration into the soil and runoff caused by rainfall, which are important parameters in the occurrence of shallow landslides and subsequent flows, are also fully considered and this natural phenomenon is fully simulated. The input data required for this research includes topographical data of the basin, geological and hydrogeological properties of soil units, and rainfall data in the region, which are prepared in the form of appropriate text files and GIS maps. The output of the Triggers program includes maps of the spatial distribution of the minimum safety factor, the depth of the failure, and the pore water pressure at the failure depth, which are prepared in the form of text files and can be interpreted in GIS-based software. The results of this study showed that in the high and steep parts of the basin, wherever there are soils on a bedrock rich in clay minerals (such as mudstone, marl, and shale), the potential for shallow rainfall-induced landslides is high. In the field studies, a good agreement between the results of this study and the experiences obtained from field observations of landslides caused by rainfall in the region was obtained in terms of their spatial distribution and time of occurrence. Keywords: Shallow landslide; Pore pressure; Rainfall-induced landslide   Shallow landslide, Pore pressure, Rainfall-induced landslide http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3383-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3383-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Spatial analysis of Iran\'s climate change from the point of view of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux by Bowen method 45 58 FA Halimeh Shahzaei University of Sistan and Baluchestan shahzaei870@gmail.com N Mohsen Hamidianpour University of Sistan and Baluchestan mhamidianpour@gep.usb.ac.ir Y Mahsa Farzaneh Chabahar Maritime University (CMU) mahsa.farzaneh71@gmail.com N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.45 Spatial analysis of Iran's climate change from the point of view of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux by Bowen method Halimeh Shahzaei; Ms.c student of Climatology, Departement of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchistan, Zahedan, Iran. Mohsen Hamidianpour[1]; Associate Professor, Departement of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchistan, Zahedan, Iran.  Mahsa Farzaneh; Ph.D Graduated. Climatology. Abstract Sensible heat flux and latent heat flux are among the variables that are closely related to temperature and humidity and show heat transfer on a surface. So, their changes can be considered related to changes in temperature and humidity. In this regard, the current research aims to analyze and reveal the climatic changes of Iran by examining the course of changes in sensible heat flux and latent heat and the ratio between the two. For this purpose, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including sensible and latent heat flux during the period 1948-2020 was used in Iran. Bowen coefficient was calculated from the ratio of these two heat fluxes. Interpolation methods were used for their spatio-temporal analysis. In addition, by using the non-parametric methods of Mann-Kendall and Shibsen, spatial and temporal changes were also investigated.  The first part of the results showed that, spatially, the Bowen coefficient is a function of latitude and roughness. And in terms of time, the lowest value corresponds to the month of January and the highest value corresponds to the month of July. The results of the second part show that the Bowen coefficient has a positive trend over time. Its upward trend indicates an increase in the dryness coefficient of the country. So that this situation can be seen in the positive trend and increase in temperature. Keywords: climate change, Bowen coefficient, global warming, spatio-temporal analysis.   [1]. Autehr corespound:Email: mhamidianpour@gep.usb.ac.ir   climate change, Bowen coefficient, global warming, spatio-temporal analysis http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3344-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3344-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Assessment and Earthquake Risk Analysis on Tehran Water Supply Network 59 76 FA masoomeh hashemi Ph.D Student of Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. masoomehhashemi66@gmail.com N Ezatallah ghanavati Associate Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran ghanavati@khu.ac.ir Y ali ahmadabadi Associate Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran ahmadabadi@khu.ac.ir N oveis torabi PhD in Water Management, Mahsab Sharq Consulting Engineers, Tehran, Iran. oveistorabi@gmail.com N abdollah mozafari MA of Civil Engineering, Tehran Province Water and Wastewater Company, Tehran, Iran. abmozafari@gmail.com N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.59 Introduction Earthquakes as one of the most important natural disasters on earth, have always caused irreparable damage to human settlements in a short period of time. Severe earthquakes have led to the idea of developing an infrastructure plan to reduce the risks and damages caused by it. The urban water supply system is the most important critical infrastructure that is usually damaged by natural disasters, particularly earthquakes and floods; hence, the function of the pipelines of the water system determines the degree of resilience and design of the infrastructure against multiple natural and man-made hazards. Considering the inability to prevent earthquakes and the inability of experts to accurately predict the time it is necessary to know the status of earthquake-structure and seismicity in Tehran to determine the amount of earthquake risk in order to make the necessary planning for structural reinforcement. Theoretical and field studies of tectonic seismicity in the Tehran area show that this city is located on an earthquake-prone area around the active and important faults of Masha, north of Tehran, Rey and Kahrizak. The occurrence of 20 relatively severe earthquakes illustrates this claim. Regarding the location of faults in Tehran city, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of Tehran water facilities. Research Methodology The present study is a practical-analytic one. Considering the severity of earthquake damages, it is necessary to conduct earthquake hazard zonation studies in different urban areas and to determine important indicators of damage assessment such as maximum ground acceleration, maximum ground speed, maximum ground displacement. Three indices were considered for mapping earthquake seismic zones and their integration into the GIS presented a seismic hazard map. In the analysis of earthquake risk, it is necessary to evaluate two indicators of risk and vulnerability. To prepare the general hazard power mapping the weights obtained from the ANP model were applied to the existing raster layers via the Raster Calculator command. In this way, the standardized layers are multiplied separately by their respective weights and finally overlapped. In order to evaluate the vulnerability, a series of evaluation indices are introduced and ANP techniques are used. The relative value of each index is then calculated using the multivariate approach using the SAW technique. In order to calculate the earthquake risk based on R = H * V relation, the values ​​of these two components were multiplied. This calculation was performed in GIS software on the risk and vulnerability raster layer and the final result of this calculation was displayed on the map. Description and interpretation of results In this study, we tried to estimate the relative risk and risk of seismic hazard on the water supply lines in Tehran, using available data and scientific methods, and map the risk level. These lines should be prepared first by the amount of earthquake hazard risk and then by the risk map, to estimate the earthquake risk on the water supply network. first the earthquake risk then the status of the hazard lines should be calculated. The vulnerability of the water supply lines was calculated using the ANP model by multiplying the total potential hazard risk then substrate transfer network vulnerability risk map obtained transmission network. The highest risk was in the west and north of Tehran. The maps showed the risk potential and the vulnerability of the lines. These areas had high seismic potential and the density of the lines was higher in these areas. Water transmission facilities are at risk and earthquake hazards may be affected by damage to the transmission lines, drinking water to a large population will be difficult, as well as performing necessary zoning to prevent future expansion of the facility in place. These analyzes are a prelude to applying corrective techniques to pipelines to reduce their vulnerability and prevent newly created pipelines from locating in vulnerable areas. Since the results of this study are risk maps along the route of the water supply lines, so in order to prepare a risk control program, we can identify the high risk pipeline map and identify the pipeline vulnerability. And, depending on its location, provided an appropriate prevention and control plan for the conditions surrounding the pipeline environment. Hazard, Earthquake, Tehran City, Vulnerability, Water supply network, Risk http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3416-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3416-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Flood risk analysis and zoning and its relationship with vegetation in Qirokarzin County 77 96 FA fatemeh hosseini PhD student of Geography and Rural Planning, Tehran University of Research Sciences, Tehran, Iran ftm.hoseinii@gmail.com N mohammad hemmati Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Yadgar Imam Khomeini Branch, Shahrari, Iran. Hemmati2051@gmail.com Y mahtab jafari Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University Chalus Branch, Chalus, Iran ​ mahtab.jafari@iau.ac.ir N alireza estelaji Professor of Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Yadgar Imam Khomeini Branch, Shahrari, Iran. al_estelaji@yahoo.com N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.77 Flood is one of the most destructive weather hazards in the world. The frequent occurrence of urban floods has affected public safety and limited the sustainable development of the social economy. The present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a flood intensity zoning map and analyzing its relationship with vegetation in Qirokarzin city in Fars province. For this purpose, after reviewing various sources, by introducing five effective criteria in the occurrence of floods, which were repeated in other researches in this field, the factors of height, slope, and distance from the river, topographic index and height of runoff were selected as effective factors. By using the method of network analysis process (ANP) in Super decision software, weighting and then using the simple weighted sum method, the final map has been obtained. In this regard, vegetation changes have been obtained using Landsat images in 2000 and 2021 and NDVI index. The results showed that the most effective criterion was the topographic index and Qirokarzin city was located in five zones of very low, low, medium, high and very high risk of flooding, among which 1849/6 square kilometer (54.8%) of Qirokarzin city were in the zone with the risk of flooding is very high. also, the analysis of vegetation changes showed that despite the development of agriculture and horticulture and the resulting relative improvement of the average values of the NDVI index, in the upper reaches of the watersheds of this city, the vegetation cover of forest and pasture lands has decreased significantly, and finally the effects of this problem lead to residential areas and agricultural and horticultural lands in 2021 compared to 2000 are located in areas with high flood potential with a higher percentage, this issue can confirm that the protection of land use in the upstream area is in accordance with to what extent can the policy of maintaining the existing cover and developing vegetation covers by using plants that have high soil protection value play a role in mitigating and suppressing the flooding of the downstream lands. Flood, Qirokarzin, ANP, in Super Decision, Simple weighted sum http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3404-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3404-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 The study of Thunderstorms in Iran 97 114 FA Popak Dananiyani Ma of Climatology, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran. poopak.da@gmail.com N Ehsan Soureh Ma of Climatology, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran. ehsan.soureh@gmail.com N Bakhtiyar Mohammamdi Associate Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran. b.mohammadi@uok.ac.ir Y 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.97 Thunderstorms are one of the atmospheric phenomena; when they occur, strong winds are often reported along with heavy rains and lightning. In many cases, their occurrence is accompanied by a lot of financial and human losses. This research was carried out to investigate the Spatio-Temporal of thunderstorms and understand their trends in Iran. For this purpose, the monthly data of the number of days of thunderstorms in 201 Synoptic stations in Iran from the beginning of establishment to 2010 were used. First, the frequency of monthly and annual occurrence of thunderstorms at Synoptic stations in Iran was calculated. Also, the trend of thunderstorms was investigated based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the amount of decrease or increase of this phenomenon was determined with the help of the Sen’s slope estimator test. The results of this research showed that thunderstorms occur in all areas of Iran. However, the frequency of this phenomenon is more in the North-West, South-West, and South-East of Iran than in other parts. In terms of time, in every month of the year, part(s) of Iran is the center of the maximum occurrence of thunderstorms. For example, in the winter of southwest, south, and southeast of Iran, in the early spring of west and northwest of Iran, and the late spring of the southeast of the country, the main focus of this phenomenon has been. In the summer, northwest to the northeast of Iran and southeast and south of Fars province are the main centers of thunderstorm formation. At the beginning of the autumn season, the coasts of the Caspian Sea to the north of the Persian Gulf and towards the northwest of Iran, and in November and December, the southwest and west of Iran were the main places of occurrence of this weather phenomenon. Other results of this research showed that the trend of thunderstorms was not similar in Iran. This phenomenon showed a significant increasing trend (more than 1 day per year) at the 99% confidence level in the northwest, southwest, and southern half of Kerman province. Also, a significant decrease (0.7 days per year) was estimated in the southeast and a large part of central Iran. In other parts of Iran, a decrease or increase in thunderstorms has been observed in a scattered manner, although the amount was not significant at the 99%, 95%, and 90% confidence levels. Thunderstorm, convection, frequency, trend, Iran http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3418-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3418-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Assessment of ground-based dataset and satellite remotely sensed images for analyzing of dust over western Iran 115 130 FA Kaveh Mohammadpour PhD, Department of Climatology, faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran kawe.m@hotmail.com Y Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust Professor, Department of Climatology, faculty of planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran. khorshid@tabrizu.ac.ir N Gona Ahmadi Master, Department of Climatology, faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran. Climatologist64@yahoo.com N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.115 Introduction Dust storm is a complex process affected by the earth-atmophere system. The interaction between the earth and atmosphere is in the realm of the climatologists and meteorologists, who assess atmospheric and climatic changes, and monitor dust spread. Dust is the main type of aerosols which affects directly and indirectly radiation budget. In addition, altogether they affect the temperature change, cloud formation, convection, and precipitation. The most important studies about dust analysis have considered the use of remote sensing technique and global models for analyzing the behavior and dynamics of dust in recent two decades. To achieve such a goal, this paper has used MODIS and NDDI data to study and identify the behavior of atmospheric dust in half west of Iran. Materials and methods The western region of Iran is the study area. The data used in this study are divided into two categories: ground-based observations in 27 synoptic stations extracted from the Iran’s Meteorological Organization during the period (1998-2010) and satellite MODIS images during the first to fourth days of July 2008 as atmospheric dust extremes. Data was analyzed by using ArcGIS and ENVI software and NDDI index.  Results and Discussion According to results, interpolated map for the number of dusty days during the study period over the western half of Iran showed that the scope of study area does not involve an equal system aspect quantity of occurrences. The number of dusty days occurrences increase from north toward south and the sites located in northern proportions of the area have experienced lower dust events. In contrast, maximum hotspots are occurring over southwestern sites such as: Ahvaz, Ilam, Boushehr and Shiraz. Therefore, principal offspring of dust input has been out of country boundaries and arrived at distant areas. Also, based on results obtained using satellite remote sensing images and applied NDDI index, maximum of intense dust cover is observed over Fars, Ilam, Boushehr and Ahvaz provinces on the first, second, third and fourth of July. However, the lowest rate of index situated in extent far such as: East and West Azerbaijan provinces. Thus, parts located on the north of the study area experienced less dusty days and the maximum dust cores were located in the southwestern (mostly Khuzestan). The long-term results were consistent with the daily average of NDDI index in the whole study area and indicated the hotspot areas (Ilam, Ahvaz, Omidyeh, Bushehr and Shiraz) during the first to fourth days of July 2008. However, the level of dust cover in the region has reduced when a wet and cloudy synoptic system passes over the central and northwestern parts of the study area. Conclusions The climatic interpolated map interpretation indicated that increase of dust concentration based on ground-based stations, which are consistent with dust concentration, is overshadowed by the latitude and proximity of sources of dust source in the Middle East. Also, the long-term climatic results of ground-based observations were consistent with the NDDI index calculated on dust extremes in the whole study area and in the southern areas (Ilam, Ahvaz, Omidyeh, Bushehr and Shiraz) during study days of July, 2008. Therefore, dust occurrence increases from north to south and the maximum hotspots over southwestern confirm the proximity of the south western region of Iran to deserts and sedimentary plains and their direct relationship with dust sources in the Middle East. These regions highlight the volume and expansion of dust outbreaks, which were well detected due to the satellite imagery and spectral characteristics of MODIS for monitoring changes in the dust phenomenon. Overall, the use of satellite remotely sensed data/images not only cover the ground-based observation datasets gap to identify, highlight, and analyse the dust phenomenon, but also takes a much more geographical approach in analysing environmental hazards such as dust. It is also suitable for studies of atmospheric compounds such as atmospheric aerosols. Dust Storm, Remote Sensing, Ground-based stations, NDDI index, Western Iran http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3417-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3417-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Estimating land surface temperature (LST) and comparing it with NDMI, NDWI and NDVI indices in order to investigate water stress with an emphasis on land use changes (LULC) in the support vector machine (SVM) system (study area: Anzali wetland) 131 148 FA mehdi feyzolahpour Assistant Professor of Geomorphology, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran feyzolahpour@znu.ac.ir Y 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.131 Earth's surface temperature is considered an important parameter in biosphere, ice globe and climate change studies. In this research, LST, NDVI, NDMI and NDWI values were calculated for the Anzali wetland area using the OLI and TIRS measurements of the Landsat 8 satellite. Investigations showed that the minimum LST temperature for the years 2013, 2018 and 2023 was equal to 13.94, 22.36 and 14.6, respectively, and its maximum values for these years were equal to 35.7, 40.58 and 31.6. 31.6 degrees Celsius is estimated respectively. Vegetation status, access to water resources and water stress for the study area were estimated with NDVI, NDWI and NDMI indices. Bands 3, 4, 5, 6 and 10 of Landsat 8 satellite were used to estimate these indicators. The obtained values were compared with LST values. The distribution charts show that the highest negative correlation between LST and NDMI is established at the rate of -0.65 and the highest positive correlation between the NDWI and LST indices is established at the rate of 0.23. In general, the investigations have shown that there is a negative correlation between the NDMI and NDVI indices with the LST index. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) method was also used to investigate land use changes (LULC). The results showed that in the studied area, which has an area of 686.81 square kilometers, agricultural lands have faced significant expansion and reached 487.7 square kilometers from 329 square kilometers in 2013. In the meantime, forest areas have faced a sharp decrease and have decreased from 34.8 square kilometers to 1.73 square kilometers. LST, NDWI, NDMI, NDVI, land use, Anzali wetland http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3405-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3405-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Detecting Trends in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation events with Different Return Periods in Iran 149 166 FA Seddigheh Farhood Master's student in Meteorology, Department of Geography, Hormozgan University, Iran s.farhood.stu@hormozgan.ac.ir N Asadollah Khoorani Associate Professor, Department of Geographical Sciences, Hormozgan University, Iran khoorani@hormozgan.ac.ir Y Abbas Eftekharian Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Hormozgan University, Iran ​ eftekharian@hormozgan.ac.ir N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.149 Introduction In recent years, research on climate change has increased due to its economic and social importance and the damages of increasing extreme events. In most studies related to climate change, detecting potential trends in the long-term average of climate variables have been proposed, while studying the spatio-temporal variability of extreme events is also important. Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) has proposed several climate indices for daily temperature and precipitation data in order to determine climate variability and changes based on R package. Various methods have been presented to investigate changes and trends in precipitation and temperature time series, which are divided into two statistical categories, parametric and non-parametric. The most common non-parametric method is the Mann-Kendall trend test. One of the main issues of this research is the estimation of each index value in different return periods. The return period is the reverse of probability, and it is the number of years between the occurrence of two similar events (Kamri and Nouri, 2015). Accordingly, choosing the best probability distribution function is of particular importance in meteorology and hydrology. Despite of the enormous previous studies, there is no comprehensive research on the estimation of extreme indices values for different return periods. Accordingly, this study focuses on two main goals: First, the changes in temperature and rainfall intensity are analyzed by analyzing the findings obtained from extreme climate indices (15 indices) and then (second) estimating the values of the indicators for three different return periods (50, 200 and 500 years). Data and methods In this research, the daily data of maximum, minimum and total annual precipitation of 49 synoptic stations for 1991-2020 were used to analyze 15 extreme indices of precipitation and temperature. Namely, FD, Number of frost days: Annual count of days when TN (daily minimum temperature) < 0oC; SU, Number of summer days: Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum temperature) > 25oC, ID, Number of icing days: Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum temperature) < 0oC; TXx, Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature; TNx, Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature; TXn, Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature; TNn, Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature; DTR, Daily temperature range: Monthly mean difference between TX and TN; Rx1day, Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation; Rx5day, Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation; SDII Simple precipitation intensity index; R10mm Annual count of days when PRCP≥ 10mm; R20mm Annual count of days when PRCP≥ 20mm; CDD. Maximum length of dry spell, maximum number of consecutive days with RR < 1mm; CWD. Maximum length of wet spell, maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥ 1mm. Finally, the trends of indices were estimated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the values of these indicators were estimated for 50, 200 and 500 years return periods. In order to calculate values of each indicator for a given return period, the annual time series and its probability of occurrence are estimated and the most appropriate statistical distribution function that can be fitted on the data is selected from among twelve functions. In this estimation, EASY-FIT (a hydrology software), which supports a higher range of distribution functions, is used. The intended significance level for 500, 200 and 50 years return periods were 0.998, 0.995 and 0.98, respectively. The functions used in this research include: Lognormal (3P), Lognormal, Normal, Log-Pearson 3, Gamma (3P), Gumbel, Pearson 5 (3P), Log-Gamma, Inv. Gaussian, Pearson 6 (4P), Pearson 6, Gamma. Kolmogorov–Smirnov test is used to assess the goodness of fit of the estimation from three return periods. Results The results indicate that while the trend of precipitation indices except for the Maximum length of dry spell (CDD) is decreasing, the trend of temperature indices was increasing, except for two indices of the days with daily maximum and minimum temperatures below zero degrees. From a spatial perspective, hot indices in the northwestern regions, cold indices in the southern half of the country shows an increasing trend, and the Caspian Sea, Oman Sea, Persian Gulf coastal regions, and the Zagros foothills are the most affected areas as a result of the increasing trends. Also, the index values were estimated for 50, 200 and 500 years return periods. As a result of the investigations, for temperature indices the north-west of the country has the highest values by different return periods. The increase in the values of R10, R20, RX1day and RX5day indices in the different return periods was more in the Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, and the CWD, CDD and SDII indices have the highest values in the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf Coastal areas. climate change, return period, extreme events, Mann-Kendal, Iran. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3407-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3407-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Maximum Soil Temperature Over Iran 167 186 FA Masoud Moradi University of Kurdistan moradimasood@ymail.com Y Mohammad Hosein Gholizadeh University of Kurdistan m.gholizadeh@uok.ac.ir N Meysam Rahmani University of Kurdistan rmesam88@gmail.com N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.167 Investigation of the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Maximum Soil Temperature in Iran Extended Abstract Introduction The study of soil temperature in different depths of soil is important in climatology, hydrology, agrometeorology and water resource management. Different depths has a different temporal and spatial soil temperature variation. It represents the regional ground temperature regime. Furthermore, due to its rapid response to environmental changes, soil temperature is one of the most important indicators of climate change. The increase in soil temperature because of global warming can promotes disasters such as drought by increasing the water demand of agricultural products during the plant growth period. The increase in soil temperature also have a various consequences, include increasing evaporation from the soil surface, soil salinity in susceptible areas, which can lead to a decrease in soil yield and failure in plant growth. Therefore, knowledge of soil temperature changes in different environments is very important in climate studies. The aim of the current research is to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of soil temperature at different depths from five to 30cm of the ground and to investigate the existence of any kind of increasing or decreasing trend at different climates of Iran. Methodology Hourly soil temperature data (depths of 5, 10, 20 and 30 cm) were used in this research for the period of 1998-2017. The soil depth temperature is measured three times a day at 6:30 am, 12:30 pm, and 6:30 pm local time (3, 9, and 3 p.m. UTC). These data have been received for 150 synoptic stations of Iran on a daily basis from the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). IRIMO monitored the quality of soil temperature for data entry, data recording, and data reformatting errors. Data availability, discrepancies, errors, and outliers were identified during the second stage. At the first step, temporal coefficient of variation were calculated for available soil temperature time series from five to 30 cm depths of each station. For this purpose, the average of three daily measurements of soil temperature was calculated and then the temporal coefficient of variation was obtained. In the next step, trend analysis of soil temperature has been investigated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendal test. The trend slope was calculated using Sen’s slope for each station in seasonal time scale. Trend analysis has been done for all three observations of the day. Results and Discussion The studied stations show significant spatial patterns in the temporal variability of soil temperature. In all four investigated depths, from five to 30 cm, the northwest parts of Iran, and some parts of Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges have high temporal coefficient of variation. In contrast, the stations located on the southern coasts and southern islands had the lowest temporal variability. In warm and cold seasons (summer and late autumn to mid-winter), the spatial changes of soil temperature at different depths are lower than spring and early autumn. However, in the warm period of the year, the soil temperature experiences lower spatial variations at different depths. Spring and autumn seasons, as the transition period from cold to warm and warm to cold seasons, show the most spatial temperature variations in Iran. Detected trends do not have significant differences among the three observations of the day. Soil temperature Trend analysis at different depths showed positive values for two seasons of summer and winter over most of the stations throughout Iran. Extreme trends are more frequent in the summertime of Zagros and Alborz mountainous regions, while in the winter season the stations located at the southern latitudes of Iran have experienced the most positive trends. In the summer season, higher trends with 99% confidence are more frequent in the mountainous areas. These positive trends in soil temperature have occurred in all studied depths. The negative trend at different depths is a distinct feature of the autumn season, which is significantly more prevalent than other seasons throughout Iran. The analysis of soil temperature trends in different depths shows that values above 1 degree Celsius often occur in 5 to 20 cm deeps. The increasing trend of soil temperature in winter shows a greater spatial expansion, which is indicate increasing annual minimum soil temperatures and the increasing trend of Iran's soil temperature. Keywords: Soil Temperature, Spatiotemporal Variations, Man-Kendal Test, Sen's Slope, Iran   Soil Temperature, Spatiotemporal Variations, Man-Kendal Test, Sen's Slope, Iran http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3323-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3323-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Investigating the factors affecting the enhancement of resilience in building projects in order to reduce damages caused by accidents 187 202 FA Mohammad Hosein Dadkhah MSc, Project and Construction Management, University of Art, Tehran, Iran. mdadkhah75@gmail.com N Behnod Barmayehvar Associate Professor, Department of Architectural Technology (Project and Construction Management), Faulty of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Art, Tehran, Iran. b.barmayehvar@art.ac.ir Y 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.187 In recent years, with the significant increase in the number of various unfortunate events such as financial crises, natural and unnatural disasters, etc., the ability to survive has been a vital issue for projects, especially in infrastructure industries such as the building industry. In fact, projects like temporary systems need to endure in order to prevent and reduce the impact of damages. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to investigate the factors affecting the enhancement of resilience in building projects in order to reduce damages and failures caused by accidents and disruptions. In this regard, in this combined research, effective factors were first introduced by using library studies. Next, the collected data through field studies and interviews with ten research experts, were analyzed (thematic qualitative). Based on this, the main and secondary effective factors were identified, modified and finalized in three time periods before, during and after construction. After that, the main factors were prioritized using a questionnaire distributed among sixty-one people, SPSS quantitative software, and the Friedman test; which are respectively: in the pre-construction stage - laws and macro policies and feasibility studies; In the construction phase - safety, project team, monitoring and controling, construction technology, agile management, education, stakeholder management, cost management, communication management, schedule management and lessons learned, and in the post-construction phase - crisis management, repair and maintenance and culturalization. Finally, the findings of the research show that adopting a management approach based on resilience in projects, especially in the field of building, can minimize damages and failures caused by accidents and disruptions. It should be mentioned that, in the context of project management, especially in project-oriented organizations, this need is felt that new methods should be used to control incidents and disruptions, so that the destructive effect created can be reduced. In fact, around the implementation of modern and resilient project management, especially in the field of building, it is essential to conceptualize and operationalize resilience in projects in order to know how to achieve project recovery for better management of accidents and disruptions. In this direction, although many scientific efforts have been made to achieve the goals of the projects and also to prevent their failure in the face of various incidents and risks, but there are less complete and desirable research papers to investigate these factors in the form of the concept of resilience and its use in the context. Project management, especially in the building industry (with regard to inclusiveness as well as micro and macro impact and all-round participation of the building field in development), especially in the country. Meanwhile, the concept of resilience has been used competently in other scientific fields; Therefore, the present research was formed to help improve the professional knowledge of project management from the perspective of resilience. In thid regard, it should be noted that each research subject has its own unique characteristics; However, all research projects, regardless of the phenomenon under investigation, generally have stages such as: implementation plan (background, statistical population, experts, etc.), research questions, data collection (interview, questionnaire, etc.) and analysis and interpretation of data, both quantitative and qualitative (thematic, statistical analysis, etc.). In this research, first the required data were identified from the background of the research, and then with the help of interviews with experts, the collected data were verified and completed, and then these data were prioritized through a quantitative survey and questionnaire. In fact, the main objective of this research is to investigate the solutions to increase the resilience of the project. Therefore, the current research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the method of gathering information. Also, in this research, while focusing on the research philosophy of pragmatism and to some extent interpretation, as well as emphasizing the inductive and to some extent deductive approach, the exploratory mixed research plan has been used to provide a model to represent the phenomenon under study. In a way, the mixed or combined research method, consisting of two parts, qualitative and quantitative, has been used in order to increase the validity of the processes and findings and validate the outputs of the current research. Of course, it is worth noting that the general nature of this research is qualitative, and therefore, the qualitative part, both in terms of breadth and depth, is much more and more important than the quantitative part, and in fact, the quantitative part has a complementary state.   Making Resilient, Project Resilience, Building Projects, Accidents, Disruptions. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3411-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3411-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 10 2 2023 9 1 Morphotectonic evidence investigation of growth young fold Giv and its relationship with the region earthquakes in North eastern of Lut block 203 218 FA bibi zahra hosseini giv PhD student of Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. bbz1371@yahoo.com N sara kiani Assistant Professor in Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. kiani@hu.ac.ir Y syed morovat eftekhari Assistant Professor in Geomorphology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. eftekhari@khu.ac.ir N mahdi saghafi Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Payam Noor Birjand University, Birjand, Iran. N siros esmaeili Earthquake Researcher, Geological Organization of Tabriz Center, Tabriz; Iran N 10.61186/jsaeh.10.2.203 Introduction Today, in addition to exploiting environmental resources, humans must be able to recognize environmental hazards and try to reduce their damages. The location of Iran in the Alpine-Himalaya mountain belt has made Iran one of the high-risk seismic areas, and the east of Iran is no exception to this rule. The fault activities of eastern Iran, especially east and west of Lut, are a serious threat to the residents of eastern Iran. The activity of old and young faults and the emergence of new faults have provided the basis for the occurrence of destructive earthquakes in these areas. And it still continues and has been able to provide problems for the population living in the east of Iran. The purpose of this research is to investigate the role of the Giv fault system in the occurrence of morphotectonic evidence and active tectonic analysis in the studied area, which has achieved favorable results according to the model used and the studied sources. The model used in this research, which is derived from similar examples in foreign sources, mostly deals with the destructive aspect of tectonics and has achieved the desired goals. Based on this, it should be seen if the morphotectonic evidence of the Giv fault system can be a sign of more activity and more threat in this part of the range (southern domain of Baghran mountains) or not? After studying various sources, the sources that answer the research questions were selected and further analyzed, and the conceptual model derived from these sources, which has a qualitative-analytical aspect, was used. Therefore, according to the main objectives of this research, which follows the destructive and instantaneous tectonic aspect, sources were selected that provided the most information to answer the research question, the sum of the information expressing the active tectonics in the studied area. Research Methodology The Giv fault system is a part of the Nehbandan-Kash fault in the east of the Lut block, and in the Giv plain, north-east of the Lut, with an almost west-east direction, it passes through the south of the Giv village and continues to Deh Mir and Karijgan in the west of the Giv plain. Giv village is located in Khosf County in South Khorasan province and in the center of Giv plain, south of Baghran Birjand Mountains and north of Shah Mountain. The current research is of applied and developmental research type, and according to the history of seismicity of the region and historical data, it can be a step in the direction of knowing the seismic risk areas and also reminds the local residents to be more prepared. The conceptual model used in this research, which is derived from similar foreign examples, examines mostly the destructive aspect of tectonics. In this research, the library work started by collecting and receiving a series of domestic and foreign sources, followed by the translation of foreign sources over a long period of time. Also, statistics and information were received from Geological Organization and Geophysics Institute, Birjand University, Birjand Seismological Center. Field studies, interviews, surveys and field measurements, using geological and topographic maps and satellite images, and using Google Earth and Arc GIS software, analysis and synthesis of information were carried out. Most of the data were used as qualitative data and to some extent quantitative data in the analysis. Result and Discuction The morphotectonic evidence in the studied area indicates a high risk of seismicity in the Giv fault pack, which is more dangerous than other parts of the Giv fault system.All the evidences such as uplift and cliffs in the south of Giv, significant change of the bridge river near the mouth and bed digging in this section show the uplift and activity of the South Giv fault and the travertine formation associated with the earthquake in the south of Giv, as well as the evidence of the growth of the Young Giv fold in 5 km. North of Giv village, such as the deviation of Pol and Minakhan rivers and excavation of the Minakhan river bed (Antecedence phenomenon), the presence of three generations of alluvial fans in the vicinity of the Young Giv fold, all indicate active tectonics and the rise of the Giv fold and the occurrence of destructive earthquakes. All the above-mentioned evidences are a serious alarm for the residents of Giv fault, especially Giv village, and require more study work, strengthening of villages, and proper planning for construction works so that the past tragic events of Giv village do not repeat in the future and this issue is taken into consideration in the discussion of land development. Fault system, Earthquakes, Growth of fold, Giv fault http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3428-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3428-en.pdf