دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 Synoptic Analysis of Summer Dry Spells in Southern Coasts of the Caspian Sea and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation 1 20 FA Mahmoud Roshani - m.roahani@gmail.com Y Mohammad Saligheh Kharazmi University saligheh@khu.ac.ir N Bohlol Alijani Kharazmi University alijani@khu.ac.ir N Zahra Begum Hejazizadeh Kharazmi University hedjazizadeh@yahoo.com N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.1 In this study, the synoptic patterns of the warm period of the year that lead to the cessation of rainfall and the creation of short to long dry spells were identified and analyzed. For this purpose, the rainfall data of 8 synoptic stations were used to identify the dry spells of the warm season for 30 years (1986 to 2015). The average daily rainfall of each station was used as the threshold value to distinguish between wet and dry spells. Then, according to the effects of dry spells, they were defined subjectively and objectively with different durations. Thus, 5 numerical periods of 12 to 15, 15 to 30, 30 to 45, 45 to 60 and more than 60 days were identified. By factor analysis of Geopotential height data at 500 hPa, 4 components were identified for each period and a total of 20 components for 5 dry spells. Therefore, 5 common patterns control the stable weather conditions of dry spells. Most dry days are caused by subtropical high-pressure nuclei, which have a wide, even, dual-core, triple-core arrangement. The effect of subtropical high pressure on the dryness of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea is quite evident. Other dry days were caused by southerly currents, weakening of northern currents, and the trough Anticyclones’ area. Also, the anomaly map of the components days at the 500 hPa level showed that the anticyclones and cyclones correspond to the positive and negative phases of the anomalies, respectively. Threshold level, dry spells, factor analysis, synoptic patterns, southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3163-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3163-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 Assessing the potential of landslides in Sivan basin, Ilam province and the impact of that vulnerability of the region 21 34 FA mohammadreza jafari Ilam Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research,Education mg_jafari@yahoo.com Y samad shadfer Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research lnstitute, agricultural and natural resources Research hrpeyrowan@gmail.com N hamidreza pairevan Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research lnstitute, agricultural and natural resources Research samad.shadfar@gmail.com N shamsola asgari Ilam Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research,Education shmsasgari@yahoo.com N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.21 In this research, by preparing a distribution map of landslide areas and assessing the potential of landslide vulnerability in the Sivan basin, it has been tried to identify the resources at risk in different zones of vulnerability, then the environmental stability of the basin against the potential Vulnerability due to landslides should be investigated.. For this purpose, the information layers of landslide areas, agricultural lands, forests, residential areas and roads were prepared in the GIS environment. Then, the prepared layers based on the model (Index Overlay) were weighted and classified using the Class Maps Multi method and using expert opinion.According to the results obtained from the research, 44 landslides were determined in the Sivan basin, 17 of which could be measured and investigated in the field, 10 of which were in mountainous areas and were inaccessible and 12 of which could not be reached at all. The arena was not identified and 5 cases have been leveled due to the change of use to gardens and facilities. In the following, the potential vulnerability map of Sivan basin landslides in five vulnerability classes: very low (19846 hectares), low (1793 hectares), medium (741 hectares), high (2089 hectares) and very high (871 hectares) was prepared. In terms of environmental stability, the most damages caused by landslides in the Sivan basin are respectively related to communication roads and forest areas, which are in the range of high and very high vulnerability, agricultural lands are in the range of damage. Medium and lowest acceptability is related to residential areas, which is in a very low range. In the investigation of the environmental stability of the basin, it has been determined that there is a potential for vulnerability in all the mentioned cases, but it will be more intense in the direction of communication roads.   Vulnerability potential, landslide, information layers, weighting, Sivan Basin http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3375-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3375-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 Classification of Persistent Rainfall in the West of Iran Based on Frequency of Occurrence Using the Lamb-Jenkinson Method 35 48 FA Fatemeh Gheysvandi Razi University gheisvandifatemeh@gmail.com N Jafar Masoompour Samakosh Razi University j.masoompour@razi.ac.ir Y Firouz Mojarrad Razi University f_mojarrad@yahoo.com N Aminallah Ghahramani Razi University aminghahramani@gmail.com N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.35 The occurrence of persistent rainfall, resulting from the integration of multi-scale cyclonic systems, is prone to producing heavy to severe precipitation. Therefore, it is highly significant due to its potential to cause disasters such as floods and landslides, as well as its importance in water resource management for agricultural purposes. In this study, persistent rainfall refers to rainfall events lasting at least three consecutive days with a total precipitation of more than 1 millimeter. The aim of this research is to identify and classify these types of rainfall for the western region of Iran over a 30-year statistical period (1993 to 2022) for the first time using the Lamb-Jenkinson method. In this method, the central coordinates of the study area are used as the reference point in the calculations. Sixteen additional points are also determined around the reference point. With the availability of instantaneous standard sea-level pressure data for these points, it becomes possible to calculate the values of geostrophic wind and vorticity. By comparing these two quantities, the types of weather patterns in the L-J method—which include four types: directional, cyclonic, hybrid, and undefined—are identified and categorized. Disregarding the undefined category, it was ultimately determined that the provinces of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, and Ilam each had 50, 50, 50, 40, and 39 occurrences of the directional state, respectively. Moreover, the frequencies of the cyclonic state for these provinces were 69, 94, 65, 66, and 38, respectively, with cyclonic rotation percentages of 100%, 98%, 97%, 95%, and 97%, respectively. As for the hybrid state, the frequencies obtained for each province were 49, 53, 43, 41, and 38, respectively.   Persistent Rainfall, Geostrophic Wind, Vorticity, Rotation, Lamb-Jenkinson, West of Iran. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3476-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3476-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 Spatial Prediction of Deforestation in Iran’s Hyrcanian Forests: Integrating Climatic, Topographic, and Anthropogenic Factors 49 62 FA saeid shabani AREEO s.shabani@areeo.ac.ir Y behrooz mohseni AREEO b.mohseni@areeo.ac.ir N aiding kornejady AREEO aidin.kornejady@gmail.com N akram ahmadi AREEO ahmadi.1870@gmail.com N hassan faramarzi Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Noor, Mazandaran faramarzi.hassan@yahoo.com N esmaeil silakhori gorgan university esmaeil.silakhori@gmail.com N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.49 Deforestation is one of the primary challenges and environmental threats facing forest ecosystems, including the Hyrcanian forests, and occurs under the influence of various natural and anthropogenic drivers. This study aimed to model the probability of deforestation occurrence within the Loveh forest management district located in northern Iran. The dataset comprised 104 documented deforestation points and 14 explanatory variables, derived through spatial analysis using GIS and environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic data. To assess the relationships among variables and predict the likelihood of deforestation, two statistical models were employed: logistic regression and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The results revealed that the GAM outperformed the logistic regression model, achieving a higher Kappa coefficient (0.84) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) value (0.956), and providing a more realistic spatial distribution of deforestation risk. The most influential variables included distance from roads, slope, wind effect, and elevation. Based on the GAM output, approximately 20% of the study area was categorized as high and very high risk. These findings underscore the pivotal role of access infrastructure, human pressure, and climatic factors in accelerating deforestation processes. The results of this study can serve as a scientific basis for prioritizing conservation interventions, reassessing road development policies, and enhancing spatial planning for sustainable forest management in northern Iran.   Probability of occurrence, Road development, Kappa coefficient, Human factors, Sustainable management http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3492-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3492-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 Evaluating the Vulnerability of Tourist Destinations in Tarom township to Natural Hazards 63 80 FA Maryam Mohammadlo Maryam.Mohammadlo@znu.ac.ir N Jamshid Einali Einalia@znu.ac.ir Y Kohzad Raispour Raispour@znu.ac.ir N MohammadJavad Abbasi mo_abbasi@sbu.ac.ir N Ghamar Abbasi Abbasi.ghamar@znu.ac.ir N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.63 Objective: As a result of its distinct natural and geographical conditions, Tarom township is highly vulnerable to a range of natural hazards, including floods, earthquakes, and Mass movements. Given the region's increasing popularity as a tourist destination, the implementation of effective risk management strategies is imperative. As a foundational step toward this goal, it is essential to identify, prioritize, and spatially delineate the natural hazards present in the area. Methods: This study commenced with the development of a comprehensive checklist and risk matrix aimed at identifying the predominant hazards and evaluating the significance of their consequences. To obtain a reliable group consensus, a Delphi survey was conducted involving 10 experts across three iterative rounds. Furthermore, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) was employed to assign weights and prioritize the evaluation criteria. Subsequently, by integrating the hazard layers with the derived fuzzy weights using ArcGIS software, the vulnerability of natural hazards affecting tourist destinations within the study area was spatially delineated and presented through detailed zoning maps for each hazard category. Results: In this study, to assess the vulnerability status of three hazards (floods, earthquakes, and Mass movements) the criteria were weighted and fuzzified, resulting in the production of vulnerability maps for each hazard. Consequently, the vulnerability levels of tourist destinations against these hazards were determined. Conclusions: The results indicate that among the natural hazards analyzed in the region, floods hold the highest level of importance, followed by earthquakes and mass movements. Furthermore, the spatial vulnerability mapping reveals that the highest flood vulnerability is concentrated in the tourist destinations of Chavarzagh, Lar, Sorkhabad, the ShirinSu–Siahvarud corridor, and Kordabad. In terms of earthquake risk, the city of Abbar shows a very high level of vulnerability, followed by Chavazagh, the village of Deh-Bahar, and the Heshtarkhan waterfall area in Lar. Regarding Mass movements hazards, the areas most exposed to vulnerability include the ShirinSu–Siahvarud corridor, the region of Valider, the Heshtarkhan waterfall area in Lar, and Sorkhabad. Natural Hazards, Tourist destinations, Risk Matrix, Tarom township. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3497-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3497-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 Analysis of spatial distribution patterns of population aging in Tehran metropolis 81 98 FA Mohammad Soleimani Kharazmi University m_soleimani_mehr@khu.ac.ir Y Tahereh Nemati Kharazmi University Nemati@khu.ac.irgmail.com N Tajeddin Karami Kharazmi University karamit@khu.ac.ir N Ahmad Zanganeh Kharazmi University zanganeh@khu.ac.ir N Taher Parizadi Kharazmi University tparizadi@khu.ac.ir N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.81 Aging is one of the most prominent indicators of demographic decline that most modern societies experience. At this stage of demographic decline, alongside a decrease and stabilization of mortality rates, birth rates also sharply decline. The development of technology and the mechanization of tasks, the improvement of quality of life and health-related indicators, individual-centered lifestyles, and increased economic inflation are significant factors in this issue. Iran is also among the countries on the verge of entering the stage of demographic decline. However, the intensity of this trend varies in different regions of the country. This article examines and analyzes the state of aging in the neighborhoods of the metropolis of Tehran. This research falls into the category of applied research in terms of purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The research is based on the census data from 2016 and utilizes spatial statistical analyses. The positive values of Moran's autocorrelation analysis for each of the indices: aging (0.664), old-age dependency ratio (0.644), youth ratio (0.653), aging ratio (0.664), and aging index (0.665) in the neighborhoods of Tehran indicate a clustered pattern. This means that the issue of aging is more acute in some neighborhoods and areas of Tehran. Accordingly, the density of the elderly population is higher in most neighborhoods of the central and northern parts of the city. The final result shows that the distribution of the elderly space follows the logic of the social macro-ecology of Tehran and is relatively consistent with its natural-social topography. Furthermore, the spatial analysis of aging in the neighborhoods of this city shows that although all neighborhoods generally grapple with the issue of aging, planning and management should be based on the patterns and nature of the spatial distribution of this issue.   Aging, spatial distribution patterns, spatial autocorrelation, metropolis of Tehran http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3491-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3491-en.pdf

دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts 2423-7892 2588-5146 12 1 2025 8 1 A Study of Strategies of Semi-Nomadic Nomads in Facing Drought (Case Study: The Darbandis of Kalat Naderi County) 99 116 FA Maryam Ghasemi Ferdowsi University of Mashhad magh30@um.ac.ir Y Hadi Ebrahimi Darbandi Modares University hadi_ebrahimierfani@modares.ac.ir N Mitra Yarahmadi Ferdowsi University of Mashhad mit.yarahmadi75@yahoo.com N 10.61882/jsaeh.12.1.45.99 Drought is one of the most important challenges faced by pastoralists around the world. This phenomenon can have significant negative effects on livestock health, production, and livelihoods. However, pastoralists can adapt to drought and reduce its negative effects by adopting various strategies. Semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi County, have been facing drought since 2007 due to their livestock farming. Since livestock farming has profound impacts on the lifestyle and livelihoods of these communities, the present study examines their experience in facing drought and identifies their management strategies in these conditions. The research method is qualitative and the research tool is in-depth interviews with 20 semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi. Sampling was purposeful and carried out until theoretical saturation was reached to ensure that a wide range of perspectives and experiences were collected. The data from the interviews were analyzed using a qualitative grounded theory approach to extract key patterns and concepts. According to the findings, the semi-nomadic Darbandi people of Kalat County have adopted various strategies in the face of drought, which are classified into four categories: rangeland and grazing management strategies, livestock nutrition management, water consumption management, and livelihood diversification. These results can be used as a basis for formulating better policies in the field of crisis management and rural development. Also, these results can be used for more effective planning to reduce the vulnerability of nomads to drought. Drought management, adaptation, resilience, semi-nomadic people of Darbandi, Kalat Naderi County. http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3471-en.html http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3471-en.pdf