Objective: The water crisis has affected various geographical locations across multiple dimensions, with its most significant consequences and frequency impacting environmental security and food security. In this regard, the present applied research has been developed with the aim of explaining the most probable scenario for the mutual relationship between food security and environmental security arising from water resources in the Qazvin Plain.
Methods: The present applied research was conducted using a descriptive-analytical method, employing Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software.
Results: The variables of climate change, land subsidence, discharge rate of the Haji Arab and Khar Rud rivers, water-intensive and traditional agriculture, the extent of compliance with the environmental water right of the Qazvin Plain, and water resources management were selected as key variables influencing the research problem. Considering different states ranging from critical to desirable for the key variables, the scenario for the mutual relationship between food security and environmental security arising from water resources in the Qazvin Plain was identified as critical.
Conclusions: Water resources management, development of water-efficient agriculture, improvement and rehabilitation of irrigation systems, strengthening of environmental water rights, control and prevention of land subsidence, continuous monitoring and utilization of modern technologies, water policy reform programs, and education and public awareness enhancement were proposed as the most important strategies to prevent the emergence of a critical situation.