Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of environmental changes on tourism instability in rural tourist destinations of Mazandaran Province.
Methods: The study is applied in nature, and the research method is descriptive–analytical. The required data were collected through library research and fieldwork using a questionnaire. Based on Cochran’s formula and a margin of error of 0.05, the sample size was determined to be 376 respondents. The questionnaires were completed using simple random sampling.
Results: The results indicated that, based on the one-sample t-test, the mean values of all indices were higher than the baseline (3), demonstrating that environmental changes have a significant effect on tourism instability in rural tourist destinations in Mazandaran Province. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation test showed that at a significance level (sig = 0.000), there is a direct and positive relationship between environmental change indicators and tourism instability in the targeted villages. The Grey model analysis revealed that the villages of Qaleh Gerdan (score = 0.9029), Valmazoo (0.7402), and Selyakati (0.6433) respectively ranked first, second, and third in terms of tourism instability, while Keshk Sara (0.4371) received the lowest ranking among the studied destinations.
Conclusions: The findings indicate that environmental changes have a substantial and significant influence on tourism instability in rural destinations of Mazandaran Province, with a clear direct and positive relationship between the two variables. Moreover, Qaleh Gerdan village exhibits the highest level of tourism instability, whereas Keshk Sara demonstrates the lowest level among the examined villages.