Modeling the discharge of rivers in selected watersheds of Guilan province during climate change



Abstract

In this essay, we investigated the effects of climate change on the rivers of selected basins of Guilan province, one of the northern provinces of Iran for the period 2020 to 2050 under three climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. For this purpose, rainfall and temperature data from 45 climate data stations and 20 hydrometric stations from 1983 to 2013 were used. The average precipitation and temperature at basin level were calculated by drawing both Isohyet and Isothermal lines by usage Kriging method. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests were used to determine the significance of the data trends and their slope, respectively. The results showed that temperature has increased in all catchments during the study period and this trend was significant in most of them but no significant trend was observed for precipitation. Discharge has also decreased in most basins and this trend was significant in Shafarood, Navrood and Chafrood basins. However, for future periods, precipitation is not significant in any of the climate scenarios, but the temperature is increasing in all scenarios except for the RCP2.6 scenario. Rivers discharge in the RCP2.6 scenario is not significant in any of the basins, but in the RCP4.5 scenario the Shafarood and Ghasht-Roodkan catchments have a significant reduction in the 95% confidence level. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the Chafrood and Shafarood basins have a 99% confidence reduction trend.

Population and technology growth, increased water consumption and climate change have led many researchers to study and model water resources in the present and future periods. Especially in areas like Iran that are facing a lot of water stresses. The purpose of the present study, which was carried out in the Guilan province, is to provide information on the present and future status of surface water resources, and to prepare them for facing the problems of potential water resources exploitation.

In this study 45 synoptic, evaporative and rain gauge stations and 20 hydrometric stations data with sufficient statistics were used. The period of study is also between 1983 and 2013. In this regard, after calculating the average precipitation and temperature values of each basin using Kriging model, first, the annual average of precipitation and temperature values ​​of each basin were calculated. Then, multivariate regression was used to obtain the regression equations between precipitation, temperature and discharge data, then by using SDSM model and climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) future temperature and precipitation data were generated. By placing these generated data in the Created regression equations, the discharge of the rivers was calculated for the period 2020 to 2050. The trend of time series and their slope were analyzed respectively by Mann-Kendall and Sense tests.

The study of the annual average precipitation trend of the selected catchments during the study period showed that all the basins had no significant trend at any of the confidence levels (95% and 99%). However, for the temperature there is an increasing trend. In Chafrood, Zilaki, Chalvand, Lavandevil, Tutkabon, Chubar, Lamir, Hawigh, Dissam, Shirabad, Ponel, Samoosh, and Polrood basins there is significant trend at 95% confidence level. For the Hawigh River basin there is significant trend at 99% confidence level. Also in most of the basins there is a downward trend of rivers discharge. In addition, in the three basins of Chafrood, Navrood and Shafarood, there is a significant decreasing trend at 95% confidence level, which is also significant at 99% confidence level for Navrood and Shafarood rivers.

Analysis of future data showed that precipitation is not significant in any of the climate scenarios, but the temperature is increasing in all scenarios except for the RCP2.6 scenario in RCP2.6 scenario. For rivers discharge there was no significant trend in any of the basins, but in RCP4.5 scenario there is a significant decrease in 95% confidence level in Shafarood and Ghasht-Roodkan. Also in the RCP8.5 scenario, a significant decreasing trend of flow discharge at 99% confidence level is observed for Chafrood and Shafarood basins. Finally, the catchments were grouped according to the level of risk involved with decreasing discharge. The results of grouping showed that most of the basins in the three scenarios were in the medium risk group but Shafarood, Chafrood and Ghasht-roodkhan watersheds have higher risk than the other watersheds, respectively.

Investigation of river discharge trends for the period 2020 to 2050 in different scenarios showed that the basins of Ghasht-roodkhan, Chafrood and Shafarood are more sensitive to climate change than other basins. Overall, escalating temperature trends in future and precipitation irregularities can create very difficult conditions in future to use these resources. Especially, this study's concordance with other studies in Iran and the study area confirms that such crises are more likely to occur..



Keywords: Climate Change Scenarios, Rivers Discharge, Man-Kendall, Sen’s Slope estimator, Guilan Province