Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Land, Political Ecology, and Spatial Resilience: Mechanisms of Land-Use Change in Tension with Spatial Resilience and Passive Defense (A Case Study of Shemiranat County – Lavasanat Region)

Articles in Press
Authors
Mehrdad Karami
Mohamadreza Pourjafar
Tarbiat modares uni
Abstract
The phenomenon of land-use change in the peripheral areas of Tehran Metropolis, particularly within the Lavasanat region, has transformed over the past two decades from a merely physical and economic process into a strategic issue in spatial governance, territorial resilience, and passive defense. This study aims to elucidate the institutional, spatial, and ecological mechanisms influencing land-use change and its consequences for the region’s spatial resilience, adopting an integrated approach and employing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from three main sources: content analysis of legal and policy documents related to land management, semi-structured interviews with experts and local officials, and spatial analysis of land cover data using a land-use change prediction model. Findings indicate that land-use change in Lavasanat results from the simultaneous interaction of three levels of action: the degradation of ecological structures—which has reduced the land’s natural capacity to absorb and mitigate environmental hazards—, institutional weaknesses that have undermined land monitoring and control, and spatial concentration that has heightened exposure to risks. Concurrent with the sharp decline of agricultural lands and the loss of natural buffer zones, these transformations have weakened environmental functions, intensified physical vulnerability, and reduced the efficiency of passive defense.

Analytical results suggest that Lavasanat is undergoing a transition from a stable spatial system to a fragile and defenseless one. The process of land-use change in this region is not merely the outcome of demographic or economic pressures but rather a reflection of the disruption in spatial governance and institutional deficiencies in land management. Consequently, what appears outwardly as "development" has, in practice, led to a gradual process of "territorial defenselessness" and the erosion of both ecological and institutional resilience.
Keywords
Land-use change
spatial resilience
passive defense
political ecology
unsustainable development
Lavasanat
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Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 20 January 2021